First and Second Rounds at NCAAs (PSU ... and Ohio State)

[dmm53]

Where are the sure wins as well as concerns or potential upsets?
For Penn State:

133 - Forys and Parker will be tough matches for Keener (lost to Forys 10-2 & 12-6 in previous years)
141 - Lee beat both Diehl (22-10) and Alber (very close match until the pin) earlier this season
149 - No problems against Springer and Bannister. Pinned both this year (seek bonus)
157 - No problems against Hefferman (who beat Pantaleo) and Crone (who also beat Pantaleo and has picked up his game of late) (seek bonus)
165 - No problems against Schliefer and Ashworth (beat him 12-4 at 2017 NCAAs (seek bonus)
174 - No problem against Rose (who had two close matches with Kutler); then Sebastian (Hall tech-ed him at Keystone 19-4 but had a much closer match against him at BIg Tens -- a 4-1 match)
184 - No problems against Mueller and Ellingwood (seek bonus)
197 No problems against Root and Loiseau (seek bonus)
285 No problem against Suglio (Rasheed pinned him at 197 this year in 39 seconds); needs to avenge a close 4-3 loss to Boykin at Southern Scuffle

 

[dmm53]

How about Ohio States first two rounds?

 

[El-Jefe]

Campbell gets Walsh in round 2. Maybe Karam can stall his way past McKenna, though I doubt it. Otherwise their first 2 rounds are relatively safe, but maybe not a lot of bonus.

Feel bad for Ryan Solomon -- SR year, get a concussion at ACCs and random draw Snyder. Oof.

 

[dmm53]

Seed comparisons 125-285 Ohio State (O) and Penn State (P)

O P

2 ---
3 unseeded
4 8
5 1
7 3
--------------------
13 3
6 2
2 1
1 5
1 3

Upshot: Penn State has to wrestle to or beyond seeds and win the bonus battle. Can't hope that Ohio State suffers upsets.

 

[dmm53]

It looks like the seeding committee:

(a) punished guys who took medical forfeits (e.g., Suriano, Nolf, and Kemmerer)
and
(b) rewarded conference winners (e.g., Walsh, McKenna, Pantaleo, Moore, Snyder)

 

[Ranger Dan]

Penn State has to wrestle to or beyond seeds and win the bonus battle.

Penn State has relied on their bonus points for their recent run of championships, so not much new here

 

[dmm53]

Discussion of PSU's path through the brackets:

https://bwi.rivals.com/news/wrestling-a-quick-look-at-psu-s-path-through-the-ncaa-brackets

 

[dmm53]

How did Te'shan Campbell of Ohio State get the #13 seed?

• He has a 17-10 record that includes 2 medical forfeit wins.
• He lost 8 out of his last 11 matches (one of which was a medical forfeit win)
• He finished 9th at Big Tens and only won the 9th/10th place match by forfeit.
• The guys ranked below him include:
Ashworth (34-4) at #14
Valencia (25-8) at #15
Chavez (18-4) at #16
Bethea (25-8) unseeded in a pigtail

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

How did Te'shan Campbell of Ohio State get the #13 seed?

• He has a 17-10 record that includes 2 medical forfeit wins.
• He lost 8 out of his last 11 matches (one of which was a medical forfeit win)
• He finished 9th at Big Tens and only won the 9th/10th place match by forfeit.
• The guys ranked below him include:
Ashworth (34-4) at #14
Valencia (25-8) at #15
Chavez (18-4) at #16
Bethea (25-8) unseeded in a pigtail

Wasn’t the favorite to beat anyone he lost to outside of the MSU guy. None of those guys behind him have a legitimate resume this season to be ahead of him. The guys that he did lose to all had above .700 records if he wasn’t in the Big Ten he’d probably be more successful we did see him win the ACC’s last year

 

[dmm53]

The team race given seeds (per Flo):

Now that all 160 seeds have been assigned, we can use them to project team scores. So who's going to win the NCAA tournament based on seeds alone? We crunched the numbers in the table below. A quick note, bonus points and the advancement points scored by the wrestlers who finish 17-24 are not considered. Still, this should give us a good rough estimate for how the team race could shake out.

PLACE SCHOOL POINTS:
1 Ohio State 125
2 Penn State 112
3 Missouri 79.5
4 Michigan 68.5
5 NC State 68
6 Iowa 60
7 Lehigh 56
8 OK State 47
9 Arizona State 44.5
10 Virginia Tech 42.5
11 Cornell 33
12 SD State 29
13 Wyoming 25.5
14 Rutgers 24.5
15 Illinois 24
16 UNI 17.5
17 Nebraska 15.5
17 Central Michigan 15.5
19 North Carolina 14.5
20 Duke 14.5
21 Oregon State 13
22 Rider 12.5
23 Purdue 11.5
24 Drexel 11
25 Stanford 8.5
25 Northwestern 8.5
27 Minnesota 7.5
28 Navy 7
29 Utah Valley 6.5
29 Penn 6.5
29 Clarion 6.5
29 Wisconsin 5.5
33 Lock Haven 5
33 Edinboro 5
35 Virginia 4
35 Chattanooga 4
37 Princeton 3.5
37 Maryland 3.5
39 American 3
40 Pittsburgh 2
40 ND State 2
40 Hofstra 2
40 Columbia 2
40 Bucknell 2
40 App State 2
46 West Virginia 1.5
46 Oklahoma 1.5
46 Indiana 1.5
46 CSU Bakersfield 1.5
46 Buffalo 1.5
46 Binghamton 1.5
52 The Citadel 0
52 SIUE 0
52 Old Dominion 0
52 Ohio 0
52 Northern Illinois 0
52 N. Colorado 0
52 Michigan State 0
52 Kent State 0
52 Iowa State 0
52 Harvard 0
52 George Mason 0
52 Gardner-Webb 0
52 Fresno State 0
52 Franklin & Marshall 0
52 Eastern Michigan 0
52 Cleveland State 0
52 Campbell 0
52 Cal Poly 0
52 Brown 0
52 Army 0
52 Air Force 0

 

[El-Jefe]

How did Te'shan Campbell of Ohio State get the #13 seed?

• He has a 17-10 record that includes 2 medical forfeit wins.
• He lost 8 out of his last 11 matches (one of which was a medical forfeit win)
• He finished 9th at Big Tens and only won the 9th/10th place match by forfeit.
• The guys ranked below him include:
Ashworth (34-4) at #14
Valencia (25-8) at #15
Chavez (18-4) at #16
Bethea (25-8) unseeded in a pigtail

I wouldn't get too upset about that. If he gets past Barnes in round 1, then he gets Walsh. Hello, consolations.

 

[diggerpup]

How did Te'shan Campbell of Ohio State get the #13 seed?

Tough to scrub off all the Pitt.

He’s gonna get flushed from NCAAs before he sees R12.

Here’s a fun stat:

Campbell has won 3 actual matches since December 17.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Anyone who defaults out of a match due to stalling should never be seeded at NCAA. Hard to imagine that person even making it to NCAA.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Seeds are just numbers. Sure sometimes the way things are seeded means two wrestlers who really shouldn't meet up so early, do. Basing predicted / projected team scores on seeds is, well, a very bad way of doing it.

If you dig deeper, I like our chances.

 

[burnsie1983]

I don't think our draws are particularly unfair. Are there some that I don't prefer? Yes. But this is the big boy tournament, you are going to run into some pretty darn good guys. I can also see where it looks like Ohio St got some favorable draws. At the end of the day I see a very tight race for the championship, but I think I'll go ahead and pick the coaching staff that has won 6 out of the last 7.

 

[jack66]

Bottom line, we have to wrestle better than we did last weekend.

Assuming OSU wrestles to seed, we will obviously need the bonus machine working for us. At Bigs, Zain, Jason, Bo, Hall, VJ and Shak combined for 3 MDs, 0 TFs and 3 falls. We know they can up that by quite a bit.

 

[a_mshaffer]

Bottom line, we have to wrestle better than we did last weekend.

Assuming OSU wrestles to seed, we will obviously need the bonus machine working for us. At Bigs, Zain, Jason, Bo, Hall, VJ and Shak combined for 3 MDs, 0 TFs and 3 falls. We know they can up that by quite a bit.

start off with a Keener win. That would be grand!

 

[tomsc]

Bottom line, we have to wrestle better than we did last weekend.

Sounds a lot like last year!!

 

[cpn1sgm]

How did Te'shan Campbell of Ohio State get the #13 seed?

• He has a 17-10 record that includes 2 medical forfeit wins.
• He lost 8 out of his last 11 matches (one of which was a medical forfeit win)
• He finished 9th at Big Tens and only won the 9th/10th place match by forfeit.
• The guys ranked below him include:
Ashworth (34-4) at #14
Valencia (25-8) at #15
Chavez (18-4) at #16
Bethea (25-8) unseeded in a pigtail

Was wondering the same thing. Not sure he deserves to even be seeded.

 

[BOSCO2]

Sounds a lot like last year!!

My thoughts exactly.

 

[mcruny42]

Nolf wrestling an unseeded guy in the first round who beat the 5 seed and lost by 2 to the 2 seed and in OT to the number 4 seed. Add that into the fact that he would then have to wrestle Kemdog Millionare who is the 2nd or 3rd best guy in the weight class in the next round and it seems like a pretty crappy draw IMO. Do i expect Jason to win, yes I do, but as everyone has stated, PSU needs lots of bonus, this makes it a little more difficult, not impossible.