Forum Talk

[Callthestall]

I know times have changed on this forum site this year compared to the last 5+ years.
Look at the recent Post headlines.
I think sometimes when teams are not having it's typical success, you see who the true fans are. We were spoiled by the dynamics of 5 all time greats (Ruth,Taylor, Rutherford, Nickal and Nolf)who rarely missed a match due to injury, illness or weight issues. This year team very well could have 1-3 national champs, including Joseph going for a rare third and Hall attempting to be 4 time finalist. With all that potential we might not have enough depth to hold off Iowa. Injuries certainly have complicated the situation.
My one complaint about the above statement is that I think Iowa's current status is maybe why Penn State is slightly behind them the next couple of years. I believe it's been Brands ability to land high end kids from Pennsylvania. I believe Iowa has 4 to 5 top level PA kids in their lineup. Currently PSU has 1.
I am not saying that the all the kids that are at Iowa should have went to PSU. But I would have thought that PSU would feature more than one PA stud recruit.
It appears next year, a couple of new PA kids should be in lineup for the Lions.
By no means does this post mean to downgrade the great accomplishments that have taken place the last 9 years.
I do think that Iowa maybe took a look at our Blueprint and talent pool and decided to copy it.

 

[Ski]

When you only have 9.9 ships and a team loaded with 3 and 4 year starters, you have to slot guys to make them fit. Cael has done a great job with redshirts and grayshirts to keep PSU competitive at most weights without huge dropoffs. Some kids are just in the wrong year group to fit into the window where money is available for them. That isn’t true for all the PA guys at Iowa (definitely not Lee), but it was going to be tough to fit in most of the others.

 

[El-Jefe]

This is a nice theme, but it's simply not true. Spencer Lee gives Iowa a huge edge at 125; otherwise their PA kids are roughly equivalent or downgrades vs. their PSU counterparts assuming good health. And very few PA kids at other schools would move the needle for PSU.

When looking at all PA kids currently wrestling D1, and assuming health, here are all of the wrestlers who would've made a significant difference this year: Lee, Sasso, Hayden Hidlay. (Lee was the only one it made sense to recruit at the time.)

PA wrestlers who would've been a modest upgrade or no change: DeSanto, Pletcher, Young. Even at 125 and 149 -- Lee and Sasso are the only likely AAs. Zacherl maybe if he caught some breaks but he hasn't looked good this year..

Every other PA kid would've been a downgrade -- that includes some big names like Shields, Kemerer, Labriola, Geer, Wood.

Also, Cael has never loaded up on PA starters. In only 3 years (2010, 2011, 2013) has he recruited 2 multi-year starters from PA. He got zero in 2016. Otherwise, 1 per year -- and the 2017 guy (Verk) was not originally recruited by PSU.

 

[PAwrestling]

Lmfao at this post

 

[Callthestall]

This is a nice theme, but it's simply not true. Spencer Lee gives Iowa a huge edge at 125; otherwise their PA kids are roughly equivalent or downgrades vs. their PSU counterparts assuming good health. And very few PA kids at other schools would move the needle for PSU.

When looking at all PA kids currently wrestling D1, and assuming health, here are all of the wrestlers who would've made a significant difference this year: Lee, Sasso, Hayden Hidlay. (Lee was the only one it made sense to recruit at the time.)

PA wrestlers who would've been a modest upgrade or no change: DeSanto, Pletcher, Young. Even at 125 and 149 -- Lee and Sasso are the only likely AAs. Zacherl maybe if he caught some breaks but he hasn't looked good this year..

Every other PA kid would've been a downgrade -- that includes some big names like Shields, Kemerer, Labriola, Geer, Wood.

Also, Cael has never loaded up on PA starters. In only 3 years (2010, 2011, 2013) has he recruited 2 multi-year starters from PA. He got zero in 2016. Otherwise, 1 per year -- and the 2017 guy (Verk) was not originally recruited by PSU.

Your very well written response kinda made my point. As you noted in your comment 3 PA wrestlers would of made potentially modest improvement. I wish maybe we had 1 or 2 of them since they're local homegrown kids. I try to follow PA high school wrestling over the years with a wish that a few upper echelon kids would consider PSU. If there are 2 kids at the same weight with equal ability,one from in-state and the other out of state, I would hope that the local would be consider as the priority.
That's just me supporting the home grown talent.
I actually think the depth of truly high end PA kids has been down the last few years. New Jersey has been very deep with very talented upper tier kids.
Obviously the 9.9 rule and Cael's guidelines of a person affects the situation.
When I was growing up, I was a Lehigh fan because of my location, media coverage and the fact the team consistly had PA , NY and NJ athletes. I played softball and drank beer with the Blair and Lehigh coach Bob Latessa. It was fun watching the local kids compete on a national stage.
I will always have a rooting interest for the PA and Blair kids.
I don't think it's by coincidence that the 5 all time PSU greats I mentioned(Taylor, Ruth, Rethorford, Nickal and Nolf) 3 were PA kids.
El Jefe, your knowledge far exceeds mine on the overall scope of the situation. I just hope to to see a Penn State line up made up of 3-5 PA kids.

 

[billrag]

After having watched PA wrestling for a whole lot of years, it's obvious that on average the good PA wrestlers are better than the good wrestlers from most other states, but increasingly, the truly top echelon guys, the Mark Hall, Bo Nickal or David Taylors of the world are as likely to come from Minnesota, California, Ohio, Texas or wherever. If I was a college coach who was looking to fill a meat and potatoes roster, I'd look heavily at PA kids, even kids who may not have been state champs or multi-year placewinners, but if I was Cael Sanderson and looking to fill my roster with guys who could potentially be national champs or multi-year All Americans, I'd get them where I could get them. As almost everyone on this board is aware, Sanderson has been masterful at filling his roster while at PSU. With a 9.9 limit, the transfer portal and injury, that's not to say that you'll never have a tough break or a "weak weight", but I'll take Sanderson's recruiting philosophy every time.

 

[pish69]

To the OP..this is not a knock on you or your post so please don’t take it that way.

It seems you and some are questioning Cael’s recruiting philosophy which is mind blowing to me.

PSU has won 8 of 9, not Iowa. Absolute hammers in redshirt and some super studs coming in next year.

Iowa has NOT won this year even though it seems likely they will at this point of time.

I have a feeling we going to surprise a lot of outsiders come March..

 

[slushhead]

We missed on Spencer Lee, and Iowa got him. There's your catalyst for an Iowa resurgence in 2020 & 2021. But they'll have to keep it up.

I like how the PSU team is positioned now, and I'm betting we'll all really like how the team is positioned in 2022. Doesn't matter to me as a fan where the elite wrestlers come from. We're still getting the lion's share (hardy-har).

 

[Lyons212]

Iowa has done a good job recruiting the last few years and those recruits have shown steady improvement. With the obvious exception of Spencer Lee, there isn't a wrestler on the Iowa team that made sense to recruit when they were in high school because PSU did not have a need in the lineup for them.

What is going on this year is that PSU had 2 all time greats, generational type talent graduate, PSU has suffered injuries to Cassar, Berge, Conel and Shak is attempting to come back from ACL surgery...

It is the type of year where everything is going well for Iowa and what can go wrong for PSU is going wrong. Lot of wrestling between now and March...Shak and Berge come back and wrestle well and things could get interesting in the team race again.

Even Gable didn't win every year. This team is loaded with young talent.

 

[TangSoo]

I look at it from a different angle. As others have noted, Spencer Lee was really the only one Cael wanted and didn't get. Who in the last 5 years has had a legit shot to win it all? Penn State, Ohio State, and now Iowa.
Iowa ended up with all of Lee, DeSanto, Murin, Young, and Kemerer. I could be wrong but I don't think Iowa lining up such an arsenal from PA is happening again. Even now, only one of those guys is a sure starter at PSU. But despite that, they're all going to be point scorers at NCAAs. Cael just can't get them all. So there's a top heavy concentration of talent (PSU, Iowa, tOSU), and then Iowa has done a great job with transfers. And transfers seems to be a real equalizer. If you've got a stud laden roster, with the likes of Starocci looking to step in for Mark (AB, Joe Lee, Snacks), there isn't much room. Kirkvliet being the recent exception.
But I really think it's the top heavy nature (PSU, Iowa, tOSU) with little room for error. PSU really isn't reloading this year, but in a transition year, it may not be enough to outscore Iowa.
If the big three continue to get all the big recruits, it's going to be tight every year. The Hidlays being the recent exception to all of this. But there wasn't room for either at their weight. Should we have passed on Nolf because Hidlays was on the horizon? Cenzo? AB? No way.
I'd personally like to see the talent spread out a bit more (in a perfect world we still remain loaded). There's a distinct pleasure having a ticket in a Cornell section when we wreck them on a Friday at NCAAs.

 

[SWPA]

Iowa isn't going to continue to get as many PA guys as they have in the past four years. PITT will start to filter off some of the Murin/Young type of wrestlers. It's almost impossible to win it every year, almost.

 

[El-Jefe]

Your very well written response kinda made my point. As you noted in your comment 3 PA wrestlers would of made potentially modest improvement.

In a vacuum, yes.

However, look at those kids:
- DeSanto: remember how big of a risk he was when he transferred? And why Drexel kicked him off the team?
- Pletcher: modest upgrade ONLY if he beats Nick Lee -- far from given.
- Young: not a clear upgrade at all over a healthy world team member in Berge. Also you'd have him sitting behind Jason for years.

In reality, the entire argument boils down to Spencer Lee.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

P.A. Homers have been in the weeds for a decade ready to spring this trap

 

[nerfstate]

Been said a lot of times before, but I think that the coaches have a better idea of what they are looking for than all of us. Team chemistry, attitude, buy-in to the program are all things we can only guess on. Geography is probably pretty low in the matrix, honestly.

 

[dunkej01]

P.A. Homers have been in the weeds for a decade ready to spring this trap

So silly really.

Well finish 2nd this year.....oh the horror.

 

[El-Jefe]

Let's also look at the recent PA recruiting classes (ranks from PA Power):

TL;DR version: except for Sasso, if the best guy in the nation from 2018-2020 happened to be from PA, we got him. Nearly all of the other top PA guys would not start at PSU. Many look like they will not be multi-year AAs.

2018:
1 Teasdale -- flamed out at PSU, clearly needs work
2 Sasso - did not recruit due to HS off the mat issues
3 Hoffman - same weight as Beard; struggling at 184
4 Beard - got him
5 Hidlay - same weight as Brooks
6 Matthews - same weight as Lee and Bartlett
7 Mulligan - same weight as Brooks
8 Lane - same weight as RBY
9 Stillings - same weight as Hall and Starocci
10 McCoy - same weight as Berge

2019:
1 Starocci - got him
2 Anderson - apparently did not qualify academically at Iowa State
3 Vulakh - we were a finalist; we'll see how he does at Rutgers. Has not wrestled yet this year.
4 Ruth - same weight as Starocci
5 Sullivan - maybe marginal 1-year help at 125? But then would sit behind Howard, and has not wrestled this year.
6 Urbas - same weight as Beard
7 Aragona - same weight as Lee and Bartlett
8 Haubert - at 149 but has not wrestled this year; not clear that he'd ever start at PSU
9 McGill - same weight as Brooks
10 Myers - see Haubert

2020:
1 Bartlett - got him
2 Hillegas - same weight as Bartlett
3 Nijenhuis - same weight as Brooks
4 Lawrence - same weight as Joe Lee
5 Garcia - not offered football by Franklin; also probably same weight as Beard
6 Ulrey - same weight as Starocci
7 Catka - same weight as Kerk (who dominated him at world team trials) and Snacks
8 Cerniglia - maybe useful if he can go 157; otherwise, same weight as Joe Lee
9 Stout - same weight as Brooks
10 Scott - maybe useful at 149 unless we get Van Ness and/or Crookham

2021:
1 Herrera - weight very uncertain, though right now same projected weight as Bartlett
2 Kibe - recruiting him, but likely same weight as Starocci
3 McMillen - same weight as Bartlett
4 Pinto - same weight as Brooks
5 Schon - same weight as Kerk/Snacks
6 Steen - we're after Poulin and possibly Figs; both are much better
7 Dibert - see Steen
8 Condomitti - hard pass with his father's attitude toward PSU
9 Rees - likely same weight as Starocci
10 Linsenbigler - same weight as Bartlett

2022 (harder to piece together -- PA Power has not ranked this class yet):
1 Crookham - likely recruiting
2 Bouzakis - not really a PA kid ... but can't see getting him + Van Ness + Crookham
3 Franklin - same weight as Kerk/Snacks
4 Pitzer - not sure if we're recruiting, but same weight as Beard
5 Haines - not sure if recruiting; likely same weight as Howard
6 Garcia - weight TBD but likely in Starocci-Brooks-Beard range
7 Arrington - maybe a fall-back option if we miss on Poulin and Figs
8 Spratley - likely in Howard range
9 Fea - see Arrington
10 Gibson - maybe a 157 candidate? If 165, conflict with Joe Lee.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Not even sure I get the Lee connection to someone we wanted and didn’t get. It’s 9.9 schollies and wasn’t 125 occupied by freshman Suriano at the time? It wasn’t hard to see how that was a big factor.

 

[Callthestall]

P.A. Homers have been in the weeds for a decade ready to spring this trap

I take exception to the PA Homer comment. As a fan, I truly want to see the Penn State team excel with whoever they recruit. But it has always been MY personal interest in seeing the PA and NJ kids on the national stage. It is just what makes ME a fan. If you don't think other fans have the same make up I think you're wrong.
I do some contract work for Blair Academy and will be on campus on occasion and see wrestlers working out. Of course I would take an interest in that program. I follow District 11 closely and follow those kids. Why wouldn't I want to see an occasional kid that I know or have watched personally.
I do think some of Iowa rebound is reflected on there ability to land some PA kids.
I by no account feel Cael is doing anything wrong. It is just how I wish the dynamics of the roster was .
Don't belittle a person for having different views than you. I post very few comments that question one's opinion. I merely was sharing MY thoughts and understand that not everyone has to agree with it.

 

[El-Jefe]

Not even sure I get the Lee connection to someone we wanted and didn’t get. It’s 9.9 schollies and wasn’t 125 occupied by freshman Suriano at the time? It wasn’t hard to see how that was a big factor.

Not buying this. Suriano would've moved up to 133 as he eventually did anyway.

And does anyone really believe Cael's offer to Lee wasn't competitive?

 

[billrag]

And, even if Pletcher beat Lee in the national finals, I'd presume that Lee very well may have scored more points in the tournament. Obviously it's a hypothetical argument, which many of these "we should have recruited X" things are.

 

[IAChief32]

Not even sure I get the Lee connection to someone we wanted and didn’t get. It’s 9.9 schollies and wasn’t 125 occupied by freshman Suriano at the time? It wasn’t hard to see how that was a big factor.

 

[El-Jefe]

And, even if Pletcher beat Lee in the national finals, I'd presume that Lee very well may have scored more points in the tournament. Obviously it's a hypothetical argument, which many of these "we should have recruited X" things are.

I hear you but can't quite go that far. 1st vs 2nd is a 4 pt delta, hard to overcome if Pletcher scores no bonus. And this year Pletcher is bonusing the types of guys he'd face in the first 2 rounds of nationals.

Still I'd take Nick -- and not just for this year, offhand I think he outscored Pletcher at nationals in 2018+2019 combined, and his best year remains.

 

[Lyons212]

Not buying this. Suriano would've moved up to 133 as he eventually did anyway.

And does anyone really believe Cael's offer to Lee wasn't competitive?

Exactly, Suriano would have moved to 133. Regardless, you do not pass on elite talent if their is an interest in your program. Same thing with Kerk, too much talent to ignore.

 

[billrag]

You're right on both counts. Pletcher has upped his game and in fairness, I was thinking that there's a 2 point difference between a 1st and 2nd placement, so you're probably correct. And that said, scoring bonus helps in dual meets as well, it's not only at the tournaments.

I hear you but can't quite go that far. 1st vs 2nd is a 4 pt delta, hard to overcome if Pletcher scores no bonus. And this year Pletcher is bonusing the types of guys he'd face in the first 2 rounds of nationals.

Still I'd take Nick -- and not just for this year, offhand I think he outscored Pletcher at nationals in 2018+2019 combined, and his best year remains.

 

[jrd23psu]

But it has always been MY personal interest in seeing the PA and NJ kids on the national stage.

The good news is that you still can and you can still root for those kids as well. They don't have to go to PSU for you to have a rooting interest in them. I like plenty of guys from other schools. Hayden Hidlay is one of them. If PSU can't win at 157lbs I'm rooting for Hayden.

 

[Ja1339]

I think we can all agree that it would be awesome to see Crookham in a PSU singlet a few years down the road.

 

[M-I-Z]

After having watched PA wrestling for a whole lot of years, it's obvious that on average the good PA wrestlers are better than the good wrestlers from most other states, but increasingly, the truly top echelon guys, the Mark Hall, Bo Nickal or David Taylors of the world are as likely to come from Minnesota, California, Ohio, Texas or wherever. If I was a college coach who was looking to fill a meat and potatoes roster, I'd look heavily at PA kids, even kids who may not have been state champs or multi-year placewinners, but if I was Cael Sanderson and looking to fill my roster with guys who could potentially be national champs or multi-year All Americans, I'd get them where I could get them. As almost everyone on this board is aware, Sanderson has been masterful at filling his roster while at PSU. With a 9.9 limit, the transfer portal and injury, that's not to say that you'll never have a tough break or a "weak weight", but I'll take Sanderson's recruiting philosophy every time.

Having moved from PA to MO 7 years ago, I think this is pretty accurate (BTW, for a relatively small city, Columbia MO has done pretty well, with three wrestlers in the past 10 years who were/are likely to be 4x AA (Cox, Eierman, Mauler)). If you take the top 3 kids each year from MO, IL, TX, etc. they would compete pretty well with the top 3 kids from PA each year. The difference is the depth below that, #50-60 from PA would probably MD/TF #10-20 from those other states every year. Those in this tier are the kids you fill out rosters with, but these are not the 4x AA around whom you build your program.

 

[El-Jefe]

Having moved from PA to MO 7 years ago, I think this is pretty accurate (BTW, for a relatively small city, Columbia MO has done pretty well, with three wrestlers in the past 10 years who were/are likely to be 4x AA (Cox, Eierman, Mauler)). If you take the top 3 kids each year from MO, IL, TX, etc. they would compete pretty well with the top 3 kids from PA each year. The difference is the depth below that, #50-60 from PA would probably MD/TF #10-20 from those other states every year. Those in this tier are the kids you fill out rosters with, but these are not the 4x AA around whom you build your program.

Shorter version of same argument: how often does PA win Dapper Dan?

 

[raslen007]

Shorter version of same argument: how often does PA win Dapper Dan?

Could be different if the "best" wrestler was at each weight for PA and not the best senior that particular year.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Could be different if the "best" wrestler was at each weight for PA and not the best senior that particular year.

Apples to oranges unless you did the same for the National team. Point remains the same.

 

[SWPA]

The original topic was about the top wrestlers from PA vs the country. Seniors weren't part of the picture until the Dapper Dan was mentioned. Dapper Dan isn't a good example imo.

 

[82bordeaux]

Shorter version of same argument: how often does PA win Dapper Dan?

 

[raslen007]

Apples to oranges unless you did the same for the National team. Point remains the same.

Much better chance to find the best top guys across the country than it is one state obviously. Each year there are a couple guys who if on the PA team would make a difference. It is not the same.

 

[raslen007]

The original topic was about the top wrestlers from PA vs the country. Seniors weren't part of the picture until the Dapper Dan was mentioned. Dapper Dan isn't a good example imo.

Agreed.

 

[Callthestall]

I'm just glad this post got back to core of wrestling and the interesting debate it can bring.
The poster that commented about still being able to have a a rooting interest in non PSU kids is exactly what I do. A prime example of of taking an interest in local talent is 6th rank Lehigh.
The lineup that just beat Cornell had 5 PA and 4 NJ wrestlers. Of which 6 of them wrestled within a about 1/2 hour from campus. 2 District 11 kids, 2 from P-Burg and 2 from Boyertown. Santoro has made a point to get local kids.

 

[M-I-Z]

Shorter version of same argument: how often does PA win Dapper Dan?

Not quite the same, the best kids in PA participate in Dapper Dan every year (unless hurt), I don't think that the USA team is genuinely "the best senior from across the entire country at each weight". If PA had to face that team, we probably wouldn't win more than a few weights each year.

My point is more along the lines of "world-class talents like J'Den Cox or Daniel Cormier can come from anywhere", but the interest level and quality of coaching in PA are such that somebody who finishes 5th in AA at Hershey is probably much better (in high school, anyway), than a typical state champ just about anywhere else.

And now I'll undercut my own argument here, to note that it's not a stretch to imagine our 2020 Olympic MFS team to have 2 from PA, 2 from NY, 1 from MD, 1 from OH.

 

[RoarLions1]

LONG -
We've won 8-of-9. Have we really comprehended how difficult that is? Year after year; kid's graduate, others flame-out, injuries happen, yet holy smokes -- we've won 8-of-9!!

Backward-looking is easy. How are we going to do the next 10 years? No one knows and there's no guarantee, but it appears we are in better long-term shape than any (or most?) other teams in the country.

Plugging a Nolf and Nickal in the line-up, and have them perform at the same level, after a Ruth and DT, was beyond expectations from fans I talked with years ago. Add the Retherford's, Wright's, Megaludis', Molinaro's, Brown's, McIntosh's, Hall's, Joseph's, Lee's and others that crossed into, between, or hit the middle of either of the two-four year championship runs, and the last 9 years has way surpassed the wildest dreams of every fan I've spoken to.

In 2014, after pushing Penn State for at least three years, Minnesota graduated Nelson, Steinhaus, D. Thorn, and Zilverberg. The following year they graduated both Dardane's, D. Ness, Schiller and Storley. Granted, recent year's events affected their program too, but they were not the same. Now they are poised for some solid years.

In 2018, after pushing Penn State for several years, Ohio State graduated Tomasello, B. Jordan, and Snyder. Last year they graduated McKenna, M. Jordan, Campbell and Martin, and in 2020 they graduate Moore and Pletcher. They recruited well, and haven't fallen off much, but are generally considered well below Iowa, talent-wise, this year.

Iowa looks great, this year and next. But what happens in 2021 - losing DeSanto, Kemerer (expect a 6th year in 2021), Lee, Marinelli, Young and Eierman?

Point is, losing talent is impactful to programs, yet we have remained on top, and I honestly wonder if most fans really get how tough that is.

Recruiting is a game, with an unknown future. What weight classes are priority? How much will a recruit grow, and what weight classes will he be each year? Does the recruit "fit" the program? How are his academics? Heck, is the kid even interested in PSU (not all are)? Then you throw that all together, and out spits future results, but it's still a crap shoot to some degree. Yes, we're fortunate in that we get a higher % of recruits than most programs, but we still get no guarantees of future success. What we DO get, is a program that has been at the very top, and a future that looks very bright. Enjoy the ride.