ADVERTISEMENT

FWIW......3rd Downs

bjf1991

Well-Known Member
Oct 4, 2016
4,790
5,257
1
You can rest assured the "talking heads" will make a huge point during the PSU/Wisky game about "3rd Downs"

Wisky converts 43%....and allows 27% on defense
PSU converts 32%.....and allows 37% on defense

But, as was discussed on the Board earlier this season....those numbers themselves don't mean squat

If you face a LOT of third downs, even if you convert a decent % of them....your drives are going to stall out
Similarly, stopping teams on 3rd down, doesn't do you much good if you never GET THEM to 3rd down.



What is important is:

How many times do you get "off the field" by stopping the opponent on third down...
and How many times do your own drives stall out due to a failed 3rd down attempt?

PSU doesn't get into a lot of third downs with their offense (29 less than Wisconsin did)
and
PSU gets the opposition INTO 3rd down situations a lot more (34 more than Wisconsin did)


SO.........

PSU had 103 failed 3rd down conversions on offense this year (the exact same amount as Wisconsin....even though Wisconsin had a much higher "success rate" on 3rd down)

PSU stopped the oppositions on 3rd down MORE than Wisconsin......121 times vs 116 times for Wisconsin (despite the fact that Wisconsin was much stingier on a percentage basis)


PSU has been BETTER than Wisky when it comes to stopping the opposition, and equal when it comes to how often they stop themselves, on 3rd downs....despite the meaningless % stats that nearly ALL of the talking heads use.
 
You can rest assured the "talking heads" will make a huge point during the PSU/Wisky game about "3rd Downs"

Wisky converts 43%....and allows 27% on defense
PSU converts 32%.....and allows 37% on defense

But, as was discussed on the Board earlier this season....those numbers themselves don't mean squat

If you face a LOT of third downs, even if you convert a decent % of them....your drives are going to stall out
Similarly, stopping teams on 3rd down, doesn't do you much good if you never GET THEM to 3rd down.



What is important is:

How many times do you get "off the field" by stopping the opponent on third down...
and How many times do your own drives stall out due to a failed 3rd down attempt?

PSU doesn't get into a lot of third downs with their offense (29 less than Wisconsin did)
and
PSU gets the opposition INTO 3rd down situations a lot more (34 more than Wisconsin did)


SO.........

PSU had 103 failed 3rd down conversions on offense this year (the exact same amount as Wisconsin....even though Wisconsin had a much higher "success rate" on 3rd down)

PSU stopped the oppositions on 3rd down MORE than Wisconsin......121 times vs 116 times for Wisconsin (despite the fact that Wisconsin was much stingier on a percentage basis)


PSU has been BETTER than Wisky when it comes to stopping the opposition, and equal when it comes to how often they stop themselves, on 3rd downs....despite the meaningless % stats that nearly ALL of the talking heads use.

Without looking it up, my guess is this ratio had to improve significantly after September. The last 8 games has been a different animal for our O on 3rd downs, or so it seems.

Could be wrong. Good news is someone here will tell me if I am!
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT