Give me your prediction: PSU-IU
- Thread starter psuro
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It was ever actually on the board at -6.5 anywhere, as far as I know. Seems like it opened in the -11 to -11.5 range.
This will be their third night game this season, IU plays night games every season at home and generally one on the road. IU played in a raucus environment in their first game at Iowa but playing at PS will be a tough challenge.
Penix is clearly and sadly not the same player after his second ACL and IU lost ther top receiver for the season last week. Fry who was slotted early as the #1 is struggling as well. Running game is inching forward as Carr gets his feet under him...he is no Stevie Scott III.
The OL is marginal, the D is good; particularly the backers and secondary.
IU got popped by #5, gave the game to #7, survived on the road at a vastly improved WKU and beat a bad Idaho team handily.
Most IU fans are not expecting a vctory Sat...we have been conditioned not to get hopes up as Lucy is our full-time holder.
Yeah, I got that line from a poster on this board. When I checked my fanduel account on Monday, the game was locked. No line. On Tuesday it was PSU -10.5
I believe Circa opened at -9, but it probably got hit immediately. I do have one site that shows a -6.5 open, but I'm guessing that was a look ahead line. After seeing IU's start, I can't imagine any book opening at -6.5.
@lazydave841 And yes, money has come in on PSU to drive the line up to -12.5/-13.
I’m sure it’s all due to this post…
Funny, Teamrankings.com now shows an open of -11.5 in their line history.I’m sure it’s all due to this post…
I have PSU as a -2.5 fav without any handicapping. Obviously that can change based on this weekends results. May have to give Iowa another point or so since they've played us pretty tight at home recently.
Did you think PSU would be more or less of a favorite? I don't totally know what to think, but I've been looking for a good opportunity to fade Iowa. They undoubtedly are not a top-5 team as their ranking indicates. They've been incredibly lucky and I hope they don't lose to Maryland tomorrow night so the perception of the "top-5" matchup is in tact next week.
I don't claim to be a good handicapper and would never give anyone gambling advice, but the one stat I look at above all else is success rate and Iowa's is appalling.
Concur with all of this.
Their rush and pass success are both ranked over 100. Unfortunately their D ranks highly in both.
I can definitely see their luck running out this weekend, but I hope not.
More. IU has not looked good in 3 of their 4 games. Fryfogle isn't performing as WR1 (he misses having Whop as his running mate) and their #2 WR is out for the year, plus Penix is throwing INTs like it Clifford in 2020 (sorry, too soon?)
38-25 PSU. Not sure where I got 25 but given the data available, it seemed like a reasonable prediction,
Sorry. I kind of hijacked this thread with talk of next week's Iowa game. Looking ahead is never a good thing.
Ah. Yeah, I actually have PSU -14.5 vs Indiana. I gave PSU a few extra points for a night game and revenge. I don't usually put much stock in the revenge angle, but I do with JF. As I said in a different post, I think he will not let off the gas if winning (and I think he is well aware of the spread). I'm pretty close to making a wager on PSU this week at -12.5.
I’ll be very interested in seeing what type of crowd we have tomorrow night…Nittanyville had a very small turnout this week vs. what I would have expected for a game like this, and it’s the 4th home game in a row. And I know night games make it tough for some.
Perception still in tact. +6 on turnovers tonight. Crazy. Hoping for regression to the mean next week.
PSU has played 2 legitimate P5 teams. They didn't put either one away and both had the opportunity to win till late in the game. I guess I don't understand where all the optimism is coming from. Based on what evidence?
It seems to be another instance of fans whipping themselves into a blue and white frenzy, only to justify countless threads and posts next week bemoaning the lack of .....coaching.....running game.....shut down defense etc.
Tonight is the most important game of the year IMO. Why? 1. Because you won the first 4 2. It seems unlikely that you can beat Iowa and OSU on the road and even UM at home, if you can't beat IU.3. Any loss is not just a defeat but a missed opportunity to progress as a team. It means a lost week of practice patching up egos and trying to restore confidence. Perhaps selling revised expectations in the locker room.
A victory tonight and one in Iowa add up to great expectations....a loss in this one would create the need for a small miracle for PSU to be relevant (top 10 or Big Ten race) from here on out.
I think PSU has an excellent chance of a W tonight......and I hope it matches everyone's expectations (11pts.+)
but I'm not looking past IU.
It seems to be another instance of fans whipping themselves into a blue and white frenzy, only to justify countless threads and posts next week bemoaning the lack of .....coaching.....running game.....shut down defense etc.
Tonight is the most important game of the year IMO. Why? 1. Because you won the first 4 2. It seems unlikely that you can beat Iowa and OSU on the road and even UM at home, if you can't beat IU.3. Any loss is not just a defeat but a missed opportunity to progress as a team. It means a lost week of practice patching up egos and trying to restore confidence. Perhaps selling revised expectations in the locker room.
A victory tonight and one in Iowa add up to great expectations....a loss in this one would create the need for a small miracle for PSU to be relevant (top 10 or Big Ten race) from here on out.
I think PSU has an excellent chance of a W tonight......and I hope it matches everyone's expectations (11pts.+)
but I'm not looking past IU.
It’s actually maddening. I’ve just never seen a team catch more breaks, win more games that they had no business winning, and had opponents melt down in big spots independent of anything Iowa did. Going down the rankings, I think BYU (at 14) is the first team I’d make Iowa a neutral favorite against. Despite all of OSU’s early season struggles, if Iowa were playing at the Shoe today, Ohio State is probably laying around 10 points.
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There's an article from a few years ago that says SP+ runs about 51-54 percent against the spread. In his worksheet it appears that MD had a 59% win probability according to his methods.
Anyone with a predictive system is going to have big misses. I'd suggest the performance of Maryland last night was so out of line with its performance so far this year that there's no way to predict it other than the fabled "eye test" and in that case more than a few people thought Maryland had a decent chance.
Personally, I like his prediction for our game as it aligns with my thoughts on the game. Indiana put up 233 yards on Iowa's D, last year Indiana put up only 211 on Penn State's D, and I believe our defense to be on par with Iowa's, except for their exceptional turnover numbers. SP+ rates the Iowa D as #3 and Penn State as #6 - I don't know if we can make an argument here that PSU's schedule ultimately was any tougher than Iowa's so far.
I believe if Penn State plays as efficiently as they have so far this year that it will be a long night for Indiana.
Agree with your score and nature of the game. Indy will look to stop the big pass plays. I think the run will become essential for us.
A lot of revenge here. We also dominated all stats in last year’s game and could have easily put the game away and did not.
For the record, I made the weekly adjustments to the spreadsheet and ended up with PSU -1 at Iowa. Can see this opening around pick'em, or even Iowa -1.
I know nothing about how the spread is arrived at.....but I find it hard to believe that Iowa at home won't be a slight favorite.
Yeah, BOL had Iowa -1.5 and just bet up to -2.5. If it gets to -3, I'm in on PSU.
Blind faith off the Maryland win and an opportunistic defense or legit concern with our team?
My biggest concern is that we are going to play close to the vest (a la Wisky) and that we can't beat them FG for FG.
A lot of the matchups are close. I think we we definitely have better WRs than they do and we have to exploit that. It's going to play into their strength in the secondary, but we may have to sit down in the zones.
Keys:
Can we block their DL?
Can we contain the RB and TE?
It's going to be fun.
Right now, it's pretty much 2/2.5 across the board, but 1.5 at Pinnacle and Heritage, which I'd put a lot more stock in. I think the fact that it came off from the key of 3 down to the dead zone of 1.5 currently is pretty telling.
Iowa's offense is outside of the top 100 in PPA and SUC and PSU's defense is top 20 in both + Explosiveness. Honestly, I think our defense will eat them alive, but we will see. Now, back to being my usual pessimistic PSU fan self.
Teasing college games is a losing proposition…but crossing 3 and 7 on a game at 41.5 becomes almost viable.
I hit it at +3-115. Not a big bet, but I may get some moneyline later.
I compared the advanced stats and these teams are very similar in rushing offense. PSU is very good in pass success and explosiveness, but Iowa is #4 at defending explosiveness. Both run Ds rank well in rush/pass success/expl except for Iowa in pass success. That is the only mismatch I see. If PSU can win/draw the TO battle and move the ball with a short efficient passing game, they can win.
Hmm, interesting. I would almost never ever tease a college game, but you may be correct here.
