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I’m taking Michigan-7.5 for $100

Am I wrong?

Not sure Penn St has the offensive firepower to keep up
I don't expect us to fold up like on some previous trips to Ann Arbor. I believe we will have enough offense to hang with them as long as the defense does its job. I think the key to this game is going to be our secondary against JJ McCarthy. If we can get pressure on him and create some havoc plays we will probably win. He hasn't had much adversity, yet. If he's allowed time to pick us apart, we probably lose. Unless good Clifford shows up, then it will likely be whoever has the ball at the end.
 
I don't expect us to fold up like on some previous trips to Ann Arbor. I believe we will have enough offense to hang with them as long as the defense does its job. I think the key to this game is going to be our secondary against JJ McCarthy. If we can get pressure on him and create some havoc plays we will probably win. He hasn't had much adversity, yet. If he's allowed time to pick us apart, we probably lose. Unless good Clifford shows up, then it will likely be whoever has the ball at the end.
I have a couple of major concerns on offense and defense.

Starting with the defense, we had two major weaknesses last year. We couldn't get pressure with four or even five defenders. That is true this year. The other weakness hasn't been tested but given our lack of size at defensive end, it probably hasn't been corrected. Diaz however has injected a third major weakness by bringing linebackers on most plays clearing the middle of the defense.

Offensively we have only demonstrated incremental improvement in one of our three weakest area and that has been against bad defenses. We are still batting sub .500 on most of the key outside running plays. Our linemen are getting better with more experience but still lack the mobility to consistently execute and have shown poor technique leading to penalties. This was a problem last year and looks to be same this year. We are better but still not good here. We still lack a legit #1 receiver. Tinsley evened out the loss of Dotson fairly well but we are stuck fighting opponents 11 on 11 within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage on most plays. Pass protection remains a problem. The tight end position provides the only major improvement from last year but what happens if he has to stay in to block?
 
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