Championship, Washington wins the Pac 12 , the selection committee will have lots of fun. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State , Penn State, Washington. What a great year. If Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State win out, they deserve to be there. Going to be lots of fun people.
If Ohio State wins and we win Sat. And we win the BIG
- Thread starter walleye38
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IIRC, looking at the 538 probability site- Penn State needs Washington or Clemson to lose (including winning out and Ohio St winning over Michigan). If neither of UDub or Clempson lose then their odds show PSU as out (not even close). If 1 of those 2 lose- their probability for PSU to get to the final four is pretty high even if Oklahoma wins out.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/
That's not what the site says. One thing it does say though is that if we win the conference, we have a 2/3 change of getting into the playoffs.
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If you mark down for OSU to win over Michigan and Bama, Washington, and Clemson to win out- it lists PSU as having a 14% chance to make the playoffs. I have no idea how accurate it is but it's fun to run the possibilities.
No that's predicting PSU wins out (which drops Wisky's chances from 23% to less than 1%.)
That link takes me to a chart that gives Wisconsin a 30% chance of making the playoff
Who gives a crap, beat Michigan State and hope Michigan craps its pants too. If Washington or Clemson lose, our dream continues. If not, just beating Michigan State should get us to a great bowl game, probably Rose.
Yep. On the far right are 3 columns- win next, lose next, and win out. The odds change based on what you mark for different teams in those boxes.
Here's the problem with their methodology. They specifically say that they only give a little bit of benefit to conference champions. But the selection committee protocols basically say that conference champions are supposed to get a LOT of benefit. If Ohio State, Penn State, Clemson, and Washington win out, that gives the latter three a conference championship feather that Ohio State does not have. The selection committee picking Ohio State over PSU in that scenario would totally go against their charter which says that they are supposed to favor teams that win championships and teams that win head-to-head. Our odds of getting in are much much higher than 14%.
Personally, I'd put them at 60-40 in our favor. Here's why.
If you follow the process that the selection committee is suppose to use, the first step that they would take is build a list of potential teams to include. That list would start with the five major conference champions (I'm assuming Alabama wins), so it starts off with Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Oklahoma, and Penn State. Their next step is to ask the question is there any team that is obviously a top four team despite not winning a championship? There's only one team that MIGHT qualify and that would be Ohio State.
If they don't feel that Ohio State is an obvious selection, then the question becomes which conference champ gets left out, and that answer is easily Oklahoma. That puts PSU in.
If the answer is that Ohio State is an obvious selection, then the next question becomes which two conference champs get bumped. Again, Oklahoma is the first to go. So you are now left to compare Washington, Clemson, and PSU. If the committee eliminates Penn State, they are basically ignoring their charter which says that conference championships and head-to-head are two of the three most important criteria (strength of schedule is the other). The committee should not only select PSU, they should seed them #2.
But for sake of argument, let's assume that the committee does choose to ignore the championship/head-to-head argument. So far this year, they have basically ranked teams by the number of their losses. If they were to do that again, then the selection obviously becomes Clemson and Washington and PSU gets left out. Is there any justification for not bumping PSU? Answer: Most definitely. Strength of schedule, one of the three most important criteria that the committee is supposed to include. Penn State will be the only team on that list that has a victory over another team on the list, Ohio State. Penn State will have won the championship of arguably the most difficult conference in the country, the Big Ten. Penn State will have won the championship of easily the most difficult division in college football, the Big Ten East. Penn State will have two wins (over #2 Ohio State and likely #5 Wisconsin) that will be better than ANY win that either Clemson (no top ten wins) or Washington (possible top ten win in Colorado) will have. All of those give the committee reason to include PSU over either Clemson or Washington.
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Well some of us do give a crap. If we win the Big Ten championship and still get passed over by an Ohio State team who we beat then all of college football makes no sense.
Missing an important fact WE BEAT tOSU. When we win the B1G Championship, we go to CFP.
Here's where I see some flawed thinking around the selection. Protocol only demands taking into consideration a conference championship IF teams are comparable. I think the question will be: What teams are comparable vs. what teams are a cut above. Here is their language:
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
- Championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
Wow, great comprehensive summary of not only the Selection Committee's stated "Protocol" and selection criteria, but the candidates as well. Well worth the read for anyone who is truly interested in this topic.
