Jerry Palm of CBS still have us in the playoffs

[PennStateNate]

Don't see it happening, but us as the #4 and Ohio State as #2..

We play Bama, they play Clemson

Okie State vs ND in Cotton
Wisky vs USC in Fiesta
Georgia vs Miami in Orange

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Don't see it happening, but us as the #4 and Ohio State as #2..

We play Bama, they play Clemson

Okie State vs ND in Cotton
Wisky vs USC in Fiesta
Georgia vs Miami in Orange

Interesting. He assumes Oklahoma folds. Also assumes that ND does not get special bonus points for being ND.

 

[fastlax16]

Palm has had that prediction the last couple of weeks. Unless we absolutely wallop everyone left on the schedule I don't see it happening. Too many bounces need to go our way.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Palm has had that prediction the last couple of weeks. Unless we absolutely wallop everyone left on the schedule I don't see it happening. Too many bounces need to go our way.

Yeah but he probably always assumed we'd lose to OSU. And we did so why would he change his prediction?

If the team was going to go 11-1 yesterday was the game you want to lose. As crazy as it sounds, I was very nervous that this team would get to 10-0 and lose to Nebraska, or even 11-0 then blow the whole thing at Maryland. There are not good losses but there are bad losses. I don't think the focus will be lacking in those games now

 

[VaNtyLion]

Don't see it happening, but us as the #4 and Ohio State as #2..

We play Bama, they play Clemson

Okie State vs ND in Cotton
Wisky vs USC in Fiesta
Georgia vs Miami in Orange

If PSU wins out, will have decent resume to make the argument.

Michigan and Northwestern can each get to 9 wins realistically. MSU looking like 8 wins at worst and Iowa still a shot to get to 8-4 as well. 3 of those PSU wins would also be on the road to go along with 1 pt loss on road to what figures to be conference champ.

 

[fastlax16]

Yeah but he probably always assumed we'd lose to OSU. And we did so why would he change his prediction?

If the team was going to go 11-1 yesterday was the game you want to lose. As crazy as it sounds, I was very nervous that this team would get to 10-0 and lose to Nebraska, or even 11-0 then blow the whole thing at Maryland. There are not good losses but there are bad losses. I don't think the focus will be lacking in those games now

He did always assume we'd lose to osu so I understand why he didnt change it, still dont think it happens.

Yesterday was the game we couldn't lose, we are effectively eliminated from winning the division barring chaos. We win yesterday, OSU is eliminated from the cfp completely with 2 losses and if we drop a game to Nebraska/Maryland/MSU we still win the division and if we beat (likely undefeated) Wisconsin finish 12-1 and in the playoff with top ten wins over osu and wisconsin. That is better than 11-1 with what will be wins over 0 ranked teams. We need OSU to lose twice in order to win the division. That is not a good thing.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

If PSU wins out, will have decent resume to make the argument.

Michigan and Northwestern can each get to 9 wins realistically. MSU looking like 8 wins at worst and Iowa still a shot to get to 8-4 as well. 3 of those PSU wins would also be on the road to go along with 1 pt loss on road to what figures to be conference champ.

If OSU loses again, it will be down to record and schedule and our wins are going to look better than theirs. Especially if they lose to Iowa or Michigan. The "signature" win went to Oklahoma not OSU. There is still a path for PSU but it is a long shot.

 

[bdgan]

Don't see it happening, but us as the #4 and Ohio State as #2..

We play Bama, they play Clemson

Okie State vs ND in Cotton
Wisky vs USC in Fiesta
Georgia vs Miami in Orange

Unlikely, especially if an ACC team gets in. No way does a 1 loss PSU get in ahead of a 1 loss ND. They have a stronger strength of schedule. He's also assumes Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this week.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Unlikely, especially if an ACC team gets in. No way does a 1 loss PSU get in ahead of a 1 loss ND. They have a stronger strength of schedule. He's also assumes Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this week.

He is immersed in this stuff though. I honestly could not give you any reasons why I think Oklahoma would beat Ok St or vice versa. He crunches all kinds of numbers, so I do put some stock in his prediction

 

[trz103]

The way I see it... it’s going to take Clemson, Miami, and Notre Dame losses

 

[VaNtyLion]

If OSU loses again, it will be down to record and schedule and our wins are going to look better than theirs. Especially if they lose to Iowa or Michigan. The "signature" win went to Oklahoma not OSU. There is still a path for PSU but it is a long shot.

I actually think the path is more realistic to account for both OSU and PSU getting in under following scenario than OSU dropping two and PSU getting to conference title game:

1 - OSU steamrolls rest of slate, making our 1 pt loss on road look better.

2 - ND loses (remaining: Wake, @Miami, Navy, @Stanford)

3 - Clemson loses (remaining: @NCSt, FSU, Citadel, @S. Carolina, ACC title game)

4 - Oklahoma loses (remaining: @Okie State, TCU and BXII title opponent if they make it)

Would help strengthen PSU case:
- Michigan beats Wisconsin
- NW wins out to finish 9-3
- Pitt upset Miami and/or VT



In a year like this, I don't see 2 loss conference champions being in the discussion.

 

[bdgan]

He is immersed in this stuff though. I honestly could not give you any reasons why I think Oklahoma would beat Ok St or vice versa. He crunches all kinds of numbers, so I do put some stock in his prediction

1. Either Oklahoma or Oklahoma state will win and probably move ahead of PSU next week.
2. The winner of ND vs. Miami will be ahead of PSU.
3. The winner of Alabama vs. Georgia will be ahead of PSU
4. The winner of OSU vs. Wisconsin will be ahead of PSU.
5. Clemson's QB is back and will be favored to win out.
6. Washington could get selected if they win the Pac 12.

There would have to be a lot of upsets in addition to these marquis matchups.

 

[SpartanJD]

Don't see it happening, but us as the #4 and Ohio State as #2..

We play Bama, they play Clemson

Okie State vs ND in Cotton
Wisky vs USC in Fiesta
Georgia vs Miami in Orange

You would need the B12 champ and P12 champ to have two losses and for ND to lose again. But your sos isn’t the greatest. No huge ooc wins will mean no bid at 11-1 imo plus the B1G champ this year won’t have two losses I don’t think.

 

[psuro]

You would need the B12 champ and P12 champ to have two losses and for ND to lose again. But your sos isn’t the greatest. No huge ooc wins will mean no bid at 11-1 imo plus the B1G champ this year won’t have two losses I don’t think.

Tough loss for you guys yesterday against the Cats.

 

[lein]

You would need the B12 champ and P12 champ to have two losses and for ND to lose again. But your sos isn’t the greatest. No huge ooc wins will mean no bid at 11-1 imo plus the B1G champ this year won’t have two losses I don’t think.

Yeah, I don't see it either. Bama, Georgia (even when one loses the conf title game). ND, Okla with one loss. The Pac Ten is likely a one loss Washington.

 

[schoolie]

Don't see it happening, but us as the #4 and Ohio State as #2..

We play Bama, they play Clemson

Okie State vs ND in Cotton
Wisky vs USC in Fiesta
Georgia vs Miami in Orange

He is obviously smoking something I wish I had right about now. No way we get back into the top four unless OSU is upset in Iowa this week.

 

[SpartanJD]

Tough loss for you guys yesterday against the Cats.

It was but MSU isn’t a contender this year. It’s not like it killed a great teams season. Plus if MSU wins out we still win the East (isn’t going to happen though).

Keep it respectable vs PSU and OSU...best Maryland and Rutgers...go 8-4, play in the Outback. That’s a solid bounce back from 3-9.

 

[VaNtyLion]

You would need the B12 champ and P12 champ to have two losses and for ND to lose again. But your sos isn’t the greatest. No huge ooc wins will mean no bid at 11-1 imo plus the B1G champ this year won’t have two losses I don’t think.

Saragin has PSU at #3 overall with 24th best schedule ranking. Only current top 10 teams with higher computer sos are Clemson (4) and Notre Dame (12). The schedule strength will likely dip over final 3 weeks with games against Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland but may be minimal if Iowa, NW, Michigan, OSU and MSU finish strong.

I think strength of the division in conference and a cross over against 3 of top 4 teams in B1G West make up for any OOC deficiencies by Pitt stinking this year.

I guess the overall point here is, an 11-1 PSU team will have a shot. Not a lock, but IF ND suffers another loss and Big XII champ is 2 loss (neither scenario there far fetched), the case is actually very strong for PSU.