Level off, even regress as a Senior?

[RoarLions1]

Wanted to start a discussion about a comment Willie made (or maybe it was CP), I believe, in FRL154. Anyone else hear his discussion with CP about picking Bo #1 at 184?

They mentioned several things about this pick, including Bo being a challenging match-up for Dean, style-wise. It was another comment I found intriguing. (Paraphrased) ...that the wear-and-tear on the body after 4 years or so, is such that wrestlers level off, and I think they even said that they may regress. Not sure the data supports their hypothesis, and I'm careful even suggesting it's a comment that applies to all wrestlers. Thoughts??

 

[royboy]

Wanted to start a discussion about a comment Willie made (or maybe it was CP), I believe, in FRL154. Anyone else hear his discussion with CP about picking Bo #1 at 184?

They mentioned several things about this pick, including Bo being a challenging match-up for Dean, style-wise. It was another comment I found intriguing. (Paraphrased) ...that the wear-and-tear on the body after 4 years or so, is such that wrestlers level off, and I think they even said that they may regress. Not sure the data supports their hypothesis, and I'm careful even suggesting it's a comment that applies to all wrestlers. Thoughts??

Interesting theory. Just thinking quickly about some recent PSU wrestlers, it doesn't seem to ring true. Nico and Matt Brown won their only national championships as seniors after good but not championship seasons. Quentin Wright won his final national championship in a higher weight class against a returning champ. These three were at their best as seniors.

Maybe the Altons? Injuries played such a big role for them, it's hard to separate performance from injury, or would that qualify as "wear-and-tear"?

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

I'd like to see the data on this but my gut says it just isn't true.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

I have seen it both ways. Guys like Nick Moore, McBono, DSJ, Evans,Mike Moreno, and Lofthouse all seemed to fade, but injuries were the main culprit in these cases. Wear and tear had a very big influence. I don't expect Gilman to fade in the least unless a big injury hits. I doubt Dean fades either, but Bo may just be good enough to beat a focused Dean. PSU has mostly had guys continue to improve throughout the career because they allowed guys to move up in weight imo. Q and Ruth might well have faded had they been forced down in weight. It is an interesting topic to say the least.

We were talking the other night about Bo moving up, and one thing was agreed upon by everyone speculating. The move up will allow him more time to prepare for his opponents on the mat instead of the scale being his opponent. It must be hard to stay focused when your starving to death. The better fed armies have won the wars for most of human history.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I have seen it both ways. Guys like Nick Moore, McBono, DSJ, Evans,Mike Moreno, and Lofthouse all seemed to fade, but injuries were the main culprit in these cases. Wear and tear had a very big influence. I don't expect Gilman to fade in the least unless a big injury hits. I doubt Dean fades either, but Bo may just be good enough to beat a focused Dean. PSU has mostly had guys continue to improve throughout the career because they allowed guys to move up in weight imo. Q and Ruth might well have faded had they been forced down in weight. It is an interesting topic to say the least.

We were talking the other night about Bo moving up, and one thing was agreed upon by everyone speculating. The move up will allow him more time to prepare for his opponents on the mat instead of the scale being his opponent. It must be hard to stay focused when your starving to death. The better fed armies have won the wars for most of human history.

Your second paragraph pretty much says it all. Molinaro said almost the same thing when he bumped up to 149 for his RS soph season.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I'd like to see the data on this but my gut says it just isn't true.

Have to agree as a generalization. The wear and tear aspect obviously is true as we've seen several examples of wrestlers getting injured their senior season. McDonough, Ness and Delgado come immediately to mind.

 

[AgSurfer]

Have to agree as a generalization. The wear and tear aspect obviously is true as we've seen several examples of wrestlers getting injured their senior season. McDonough, Ness and Delgado come immediately to mind.

I remember reading about the probability of something happening. Given a sufficient amount of time, the probability of even a rare event occurring approaches 100%. That's definitely how it works with wrestling. It's a tough sport, and everyone knows it. The more time you put in, the more likely that at some point you will be injured. Unfortunately, injuries caught up with McDonough, Ness and Delgado before they finished their college careers. Gable put in so much mat time, even as a coach, that he eventually had no choice but to step away from the mat because he had sustained so many injuries.

Staying free of injuries is partly just good luck and partly about being smart about how you train. I remember reading once that John Smith spent a lot of his time drilling and sparring rather than live wrestling just for that very reason.

 

[El-Jefe]

Wanted to start a discussion about a comment Willie made (or maybe it was CP), I believe, in FRL154. Anyone else hear his discussion with CP about picking Bo #1 at 184?

They mentioned several things about this pick, including Bo being a challenging match-up for Dean, style-wise. It was another comment I found intriguing. (Paraphrased) ...that the wear-and-tear on the body after 4 years or so, is such that wrestlers level off, and I think they even said that they may regress. Not sure the data supports their hypothesis, and I'm careful even suggesting it's a comment that applies to all wrestlers. Thoughts??

Plenty of evidence both ways -- just in Columbus.

 

[matter7172]

I have seen it both ways. Guys like Nick Moore, McBono, DSJ, Evans,Mike Moreno, and Lofthouse all seemed to fade, but injuries were the main culprit in these cases. Wear and tear had a very big influence. I don't expect Gilman to fade in the least unless a big injury hits. I doubt Dean fades either, but Bo may just be good enough to beat a focused Dean. PSU has mostly had guys continue to improve throughout the career because they allowed guys to move up in weight imo. Q and Ruth might well have faded had they been forced down in weight. It is an interesting topic to say the least.

We were talking the other night about Bo moving up, and one thing was agreed upon by everyone speculating. The move up will allow him more time to prepare for his opponents on the mat instead of the scale being his opponent. It must be hard to stay focused when your starving to death. The better fed armies have won the wars for most of human history.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. I think one of the reasons Penn State has been so effective at the end of the year during Cael's years here is that people are not pulling tremendous amounts of weight. The wrestlers seem a lot fresher than their counterparts at Big 10s and Nationals.

I also believe that sucking down too far can leave you more susceptible to illness, injury, mental fatigue, etc. Add to it the extreme wear and tear of the sport outside of the weight loss issue and I can see performance suffering over time.

 

[RoarLions1]

To add to the discussion, since injuries, especially later in a college career, were noted...

I have always thought that the more aggressive, point-scoring wrestlers were the less likely to get injured. In other words, the wrestler "dishing-it-out" is less likely to get hurt.

 

[nitlion6]

There are numerous examples of regression.
I don't think Ness or McDonough are very good examples. Ness wrestled for a title, but against some kid named IMar. McDonough was injured.
Not sure about Delgado. He looked as though he was just tired.

I think burnouts occur when guys begin to realize certain goals are just not going to be obtained. The Grey kid is one who comes to mind. Evans wrestled Matt Brown fully aware that he was not going to score a single point and he was accepting of that.
Kenny Courts wrestled a helluva tournament his junior year. His senior season he should have just concentrated on school.

A couple Penn State greats from the 80s and/or 90s who never won titles seemed to lose some interest their senior season after losing a mid-season match to their chief rival.

There is nothing that would make me believe Dean is going regress, digress or burnout towards the end of the season.

 

[FineMaterial]

So what data do we need Roar to sort out?
There are a number of ways to do this. The most complete ways would be big and messy.
After sorting out several big and messy versions I think I come up with a quick way to sample this.
Compare:
1.The top 5 juniors in every weight class in 2015
2.Those same wrestlers' results in 2016
Assign a + or - to each wrestler. Analyze for # + vs # -.
Bonus for quantifying the + vs -, I have no easy solution.

Collect your spare internets gentlemen, we would owe Roar a couple.

 

[RoarLions1]

So what data do we need Roar to sort out?
There are a number of ways to do this. The most complete ways would be big and messy.
After sorting out several big and messy versions I think I come up with a quick way to sample this.
Compare:
1.The top 5 juniors in every weight class in 2015
2.Those same wrestlers' results in 2016
Assign a + or - to each wrestler. Analyze for # + vs # -.
Bonus for quantifying the + vs -, I have no easy solution.

Collect your spare internets gentlemen, we would owe Roar a couple.

Oh, I'm not sure it's possible. The anal "stats guy" in me says it's an impossible task to prove or disprove any theory. Too many other factors.

I do like the discussion though, as everyone's thoughts have merit.

 

[FineMaterial]

Cmon, it's easy.

 

[Cletus11]

How do you separate 'wear and tear' from injuries. As guys get older and the bump and bruises accumulate, it is easier and you are more susceptible to injury because of it. So you could probably make a good argument (and maybe back it up with facts) that there are more injuries later in wrestlers careers because of 'wear and tear'.

It does appear true that does not seem to be the case for PSU wrestlers as compared to other programs. I think the wrestling up to a more natural weight has to be a large contributing factor. I would have to believe there is also something in the way that Cael runs the room (and possibly the S&C program) that also contributes to this.

 

[JohnBasedow]

From an Iowa point of view, there have been a few guys who fade in the final season. Like others have mentioned, a lot of that is due to injuries. In my opinion, some of it has to do with guys who don't move up weight classes as their body grows.

Looking at DSJ, he was a tall kid who stayed at 157 for his career and by the NCAA tournament rolled around his senior year, he looked depleted. I'm sure a lot of that had to do with the competition at 165 but that has to take a toll on the body and psyche.

 

[tikk10]

CP's observation seems like a dangerous generalization but I also think I've seen it here and there. I'm not sure, though, that I've seen it much with the elite tier guys like Gabe Dean, though DSJ is perhaps a good example. I remember thinking Mason Beckman had had enough by his senior year and was maybe looking ahead to just being done. Johnni DiJulius perhaps too. Both guys were middle-ranked guys who perhaps, as suggested by nitlion6 above, slowed upon realizing their goals weren't going to be obtained, but whose higher goals didn't seem unrealistic in earlier years.

Also always tough to know whether someone is slowing due to injuries or grind. Wrestling killed my knees in high school and I'm still feeling it at 48. There's no way you get through five years of college wrestling without "wear and tear," but everyone feels it and handles it differently.

With respect to Gabe Dean, I'm not sure I'd make the assumption that he's looking too far ahead because he has a realistic shot at some good FS years. I personally don't think he's dynamic or flexible enough to succeed among the FS competition he's going to be facing, but it's not out of the question. He has no reason to slow down in his fifth year.

 

[PSU Mike]

It's one of the very short list of things I comment on here and on HR - the upper weights at Iowa have been

To add to the discussion, since injuries, especially later in a college career, were noted...

I have always thought that the more aggressive, point-scoring wrestlers were the less likely to get injured. In other words, the wrestler "dishing-it-out" is less likely to get hurt.

How do you explain Kenny Courts?

Just kidding.

 

[a_mshaffer]

I think there could be something to this if you look at it from a percentage improvement during the 4 or 5 years in a program. Additionally, as a senior real life starts setting in and other priorities may arise.
I know (all because of horrible diet and weight pull) I couldn't wait to be finished with my senior year in HS!

 

[dropster45]

There are numerous examples of regression.
I don't think Ness or McDonough are very good examples. Ness wrestled for a title, but against some kid named IMar. McDonough was injured.
Not sure about Delgado. He looked as though he was just tired.

I think burnouts occur when guys begin to realize certain goals are just not going to be obtained. The Grey kid is one who comes to mind. Evans wrestled Matt Brown fully aware that he was not going to score a single point and he was accepting of that.
Kenny Courts wrestled a helluva tournament his junior year. His senior season he should have just concentrated on school.

A couple Penn State greats from the 80s and/or 90s who never won titles seemed to lose some interest their senior season after losing a mid-season match to their chief rival.

There is nothing that would make me believe Dean is going regress, digress or burnout towards the end of the season.

Penn State didn't have a full grasp on the effects of overtraining during the late 80's/early 90's. This resulted in an increased tendency toward injury, but also reflected itself in the athletes missing their peak at the appropriate time (NCAA's).

 

[nitlion6]

Penn State didn't have a full grasp on the effects of overtraining during the late 80's/early 90's. This resulted in an increased tendency toward injury, but also reflected itself in the athletes missing their peak at the appropriate time (NCAA's).

Cael and staff have a much better understanding of peak performance than anybody this side of Dan Gable. The buddy I have my season tickets with used to just rail about the lack of peak performance understanding within our program.