Most Dominant Wrestler (2/9)

[RoarLions1]

Quickly did the Most Dominant Wrestler math, 4.00 and higher only. Those in RED have less than 15 bouts;

Wt Name Score
125 S. Lee 5.00
184 Z. Valencia 4.88
141 N. Lee 4.88
174 Hall 4.72
149 Kolodzik 4.67
125 Glory 4.67
125 Mueller 4.64
285 Steveson 4.60
165 Joseph 4.45
285 Parris 4.41
197 Moore 4.27
197 Adams 4.25
157 Deakin 4.20
125 Piccininni 4.10
157 H. Hidlay 4.08
133 Gross 4.05
174 Kemerer 4.00
165 Marinelli 4.00
141 Pletcher 4.00

 

[NoVaLion2]

Interesting to see how far Mark is ahead of Kemerer, despite losing to him.

 

[tomsc]

Thanks for posting these, Roar! I can't remember what Bo's and Nolf's were last year, but pretty sure they were both significantly above 5.0.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Interesting to see how far Mark is ahead of Kemerer, despite losing to him.

Yes it had me wondering if Hall's 0 was actually reflected in roar's data but I was too lazy to check

 

[El-Jefe]

Yes it had me wondering if Hall's 0 was actually reflected in roar's data but I was too lazy to check

It's actually -3 for a decision loss, and Mark's total should be 4.75 if I did Excel right. (Guessing Roar fat-fingered 5 vs. 2 on the number keypad.)

3-1 dec
3 MD
1 TF
10 F
1 Inj Def
1 DQ
95 pts/20 matches

 

[El-Jefe]

Roar, which Hidlay? Assuming Hayden since he's still unbeaten.

 

[goStanford18]

Roar, which Hidlay? Assuming Hayden since he's still unbeaten.

He lost to Deakin at CKLV. Should still be him though.

 

[eddy line]

Thanks for posting these, Roar! I can't remember what Bo's and Nolf's were last year, but pretty sure they were both significantly above 5.0.

I posted the following in November of 2019 but thought it was relevant here:

I calculated the team points scored per match by a select group of past and current PSU wrestlers. For example, David Taylor had 53 pins (53 x 6), 42 TFs (42 x 5), 30 MDs (30 x 4), and 9 Ds (9 x 3). I then subtracted 6 points for his two losses by decision to Dake and 6 for his loss to Jenkins. That’s 663 total points, which I then divided by Taylor’s 137 career bouts. That comes to 4.84 points per match. For purposes of this exercise, I treated tournament wins and losses the same as dual wins and losses. That may be the wrong way to do it, but here’s the list:

Nolf 4.91 (60 pins, 27 TFs, 16 MDs, 14 Ds, 3 Ls)
Taylor 4.84 (53 pins, 42 TFs, 30 MDs, 9 Ds, 3 Ls)
Nickal 4.67 (59 pins, 12 TFs, 23 MDs, 26 Ds, 3 Ls)
Retherford 4.57 (53 pins, 22 TFs, 20 MDs, 31 Ds, 3 Ls)
Ruth 4.44 (46 pins, 25 TFs, 33 MDs, 32 Ds, 3 Ls)
Hall 4.11 (34 pins, 13 TFs, 15 MDs, 35 Ds, 5 Ls)
Joseph 3.60 (21 pins, 11 TFs, 16 MDs, 27 Ds, 8 Ls)
Cassar 3.48 (6 pins, 2 TFs, 20 MDs, 19 Ds, 3 Ls)
Lee 3.28 (14 pins, 14 TFs, 25 MDs, 16 Ds, 11 Ls)
Rasheed 3.27 (28 pins, 6 TFs, 16 MDs, 16 Ds, 15 Ls)

For the current wrestlers, data are through the Army tournament. (Lee's number has undoubtedly climbed since then. Maybe Hall's and Joseph's too.) Also, it’s entirely possible, in fact probable, that a few of my calculations are slightly off.

A few quick observations:

1. By this (admittedly incomplete) measure, Nolf is the GOAT at PSU! (And that’s with a deduction of 6 points for his “loss” to Van Brill.)
2. On average, Nolf and Nickal were good for 9.6 team points per dual. Crazy good!
3. In comparison, the Taylor-Ruth combo was good for 9.3 points per dual. Crazy good, too!

 

[El-Jefe]

He lost to Deakin at CKLV. Should still be him though.

Good catch. Oops!

 

[tomsc]

I posted the following in November of 2019 but thought it was relevant here:

I calculated the team points scored per match by a select group of past and current PSU wrestlers. For example, David Taylor had 53 pins (53 x 6), 42 TFs (42 x 5), 30 MDs (30 x 4), and 9 Ds (9 x 3). I then subtracted 6 points for his two losses by decision to Dake and 6 for his loss to Jenkins. That’s 663 total points, which I then divided by Taylor’s 137 career bouts. That comes to 4.84 points per match. For purposes of this exercise, I treated tournament wins and losses the same as dual wins and losses. That may be the wrong way to do it, but here’s the list:

Nolf 4.91 (60 pins, 27 TFs, 16 MDs, 14 Ds, 3 Ls)
Taylor 4.84 (53 pins, 42 TFs, 30 MDs, 9 Ds, 3 Ls)
Nickal 4.67 (59 pins, 12 TFs, 23 MDs, 26 Ds, 3 Ls)
Retherford 4.57 (53 pins, 22 TFs, 20 MDs, 31 Ds, 3 Ls)
Ruth 4.44 (46 pins, 25 TFs, 33 MDs, 32 Ds, 3 Ls)
Hall 4.11 (34 pins, 13 TFs, 15 MDs, 35 Ds, 5 Ls)
Joseph 3.60 (21 pins, 11 TFs, 16 MDs, 27 Ds, 8 Ls)
Cassar 3.48 (6 pins, 2 TFs, 20 MDs, 19 Ds, 3 Ls)
Lee 3.28 (14 pins, 14 TFs, 25 MDs, 16 Ds, 11 Ls)
Rasheed 3.27 (28 pins, 6 TFs, 16 MDs, 16 Ds, 15 Ls)

For the current wrestlers, data are through the Army tournament. (Lee's number has undoubtedly climbed since then. Maybe Hall's and Joseph's too.) Also, it’s entirely possible, in fact probable, that a few of my calculations are slightly off.

A few quick observations:

1. By this (admittedly incomplete) measure, Nolf is the GOAT at PSU! (And that’s with a deduction of 6 points for his “loss” to Van Brill.)
2. On average, Nolf and Nickal were good for 9.6 team points per dual. Crazy good!
3. In comparison, the Taylor-Ruth combo was good for 9.3 points per dual. Crazy good, too!

Great data eddy line! My post was more about Nolf and Nickal's last year (no losses) where I thought they were both a fair amount over 5.0 (this year's highest value--S Lee) for their senior seasons.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Great data eddy line! My post was more about Nolf and Nickal's last year (no losses) where I thought they were both a fair amount over 5.0 (this year's highest value--S Lee) for their senior seasons.

This is from Roar from last season on Feb. 25 at the end of the regular season:

197 Nickal 5.409
157 Nolf 5.261
125 Mueller 5.067
165 Joseph 5.000
184 Rasheed 4.875
165 Marinelli 4.800
174 Lewis 4.591
141 Diakomihalis 4.500
149 Ashnault 4.500
125 Piccinnini 4.417
133 Micic 4.385
285 Steveson 4.296
184 Martin 4.235
133 Fix 4.231
174 Hall 4.217
125 Rivera 4.217
174 Valencia 4.154
141 N. Lee 4.080
125 Bresser 4.000
149 M. Jordan 4.000

 

[tomsc]

This is from Roar from last season on Feb. 25 at the end of the regular season:

197 Nickal 5.409
157 Nolf 5.261
125 Mueller 5.067
165 Joseph 5.000
184 Rasheed 4.875
165 Marinelli 4.800
174 Lewis 4.591
141 Diakomihalis 4.500
149 Ashnault 4.500
125 Piccinnini 4.417
133 Micic 4.385
285 Steveson 4.296
184 Martin 4.235
133 Fix 4.231
174 Hall 4.217
125 Rivera 4.217
174 Valencia 4.154
141 N. Lee 4.080
125 Bresser 4.000
149 M. Jordan 4.000

Yes, that's the list I was thinking of. Thanks for posting. PSU had 3 guys at the end of the regular season last year better or equal to Lee's leading 5.00 this year. Seeing Rasheed at 4.875 last year makes me hope that he can overcome whatever has been holding him back so far this year. I'm not in the group that wants to pull Beard's RS. I'm ready to stick with Rasheed to the end and hope he can re-find his old form, health, whatever it is. Even if he doesn't he deserves a shot at it IMO.

 

[Random4598375]

Yes, that's the list I was thinking of. Thanks for posting. PSU had 3 guys at the end of the regular season last year better or equal to Lee's leading 5.00 this year. Seeing Rasheed at 4.875 last year makes me hope that he can overcome whatever has been holding him back so far this year. I'm not in the group that wants to pull Beard's RS. I'm ready to stick with Rasheed to the end and hope he can re-find his old form, health, whatever it is. Even if he doesn't he deserves a shot at it IMO.

At this point, I would be shocked if they pulled Beard's shirt this late in the season. I know Rasheed isn't what he has been in past years, but how much better is a freshman 197 going to be being thrown into fire with 2 duals (including one that is more or less an exhibition) to prepare for B1Gs and NCAAs? There's a better chance Rasheed regains his form as he gets confidence in his knee than for Beard to rip off the shirt mid-Feb and jump right into the elite tier of AAs. It's not worth burning a year of eligibility.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

At this point, I would be shocked if they pulled Beard's shirt this late in the season. I know Rasheed isn't what he has been in past years, but how much better is a freshman 197 going to be being thrown into fire with 2 duals (including one that is more or less an exhibition) to prepare for B1Gs and NCAAs? There's a better chance Rasheed regains his form as he gets confidence in his knee than for Beard to rip off the shirt mid-Feb and jump right into the elite tier of AAs. It's not worth burning a year of eligibility.

Agree. A 90% Shak is probably within 5 points of Beard which is not enough of a delta considering the value of a whole year.

The bigger challenge is Berge. Without him it is still doable but I think we will need the perfect scenario of things breaking for us and Iowa underachieving across multiple weight classes.

Without Berge on the lineup my somewhat contrarian view is there is even less justification to pull Beard's shirt.

In any case we may know more Saturday. My fingers are still crossed. Even with Berge, given close to 4 months of no competitive matches, what version of him could we reasonably expect to get? Low AA is reasonable which ain't bad, but visions of him being top 4 are IMO too optimistic.

 

[RoarLions1]

It's actually -3 for a decision loss, and Mark's total should be 4.75 if I did Excel right. (Guessing Roar fat-fingered 5 vs. 2 on the number keypad.)

3-1 dec
3 MD
1 TF
10 F
1 Inj Def
1 DQ
95 pts/20 matches

Sorry it's taken a while (I'm not on the forum as much anymore). Just now saw your post.

My numbers look ok. The Nick Cope and Nathan Cheek bouts don't count, so you'll have to remove two of the falls. You're left with 2 decisions (6 pts), 3 majors (12 points), 2 techs (10 pts), and 10 falls/DQ's/InjDef (60 pts). That's 88 points, minus the 3 for the decision loss for 85. Then 85/18 = 4.7222222, ad infinitum. The ten 6-pointers jumps Mark ahead of 11 undefeated guys on the list.

And the Hidlay on the list is Hayden. Thanks, I added his initial.

 

[Random4598375]

Agree. A 90% Shak is probably within 5 points of Beard which is not enough of a delta considering the value of a whole year.

The bigger challenge is Berge. Without him it is still doable but I think we will need the perfect scenario of things breaking for us and Iowa underachieving across multiple weight classes.

Without Berge on the lineup my somewhat contrarian view is there is even less justification to pull Beard's shirt.

In any case we may know more Saturday. My fingers are still crossed. Even with Berge, given close to 4 months of no competitive matches, what version of him could we reasonably expect to get? Low AA is reasonable which ain't bad, but visions of him being top 4 are IMO too optimistic.

Berge is a more complicated question. There are 2 things to think about. First, obviously, is to make sure he is 100% healthy with no risk of further injury before he comes back. I think we all expect that will be the case before they even consider letting him go.

The second consideration is whether Cael thinks that Berge's points with the layoff that he had would be the difference between beating Iowa and not. If it's not and he can get a medical RS for an extra year of eligibility by not wrestling, they may opt to leave him on the sidelines even if he is technically healthy enough to go. That will be a tricky decision if it comes to that.

 

[RoarLions1]

Berge is a more complicated question. There are 2 things to think about. First, obviously, is to make sure he is 100% healthy with no risk of further injury before he comes back. I think we all expect that will be the case before they even consider letting him go.

The second consideration is whether Cael thinks that Berge's points with the layoff that he had would be the difference between beating Iowa and not. If it's not and he can get a medical RS for an extra year of eligibility by not wrestling, they may opt to leave him on the sidelines even if he is technically healthy enough to go. That will be a tricky decision if it comes to that.

Get what you're saying, but even in the remotest of conversation, the Shak/Beard thing is only about Shak and Beard.

 

[Random4598375]

Get what you're saying, but even in the remotest of conversation, the Shak/Beard thing is only about Shak and Beard.

Yeah, I agree. What happens with Berge will have no bearing on Shak/Beard.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Yeah, I agree. What happens with Berge will have no bearing on Shak/Beard.

So I'll present this scenario as a silly but relevant illustration. Cael is in his private bunker planning his nationals strategy. Say his math shows ignoring 149 and 197 Iowa wins by 20 points.

Let's say we have this I terms of points opportunity:

Beard = 10-18 points
Shak = 8-12 points
Berge = 10-15 points
Pipher = 0-2 points

It makes total sense that you only pull Beard's shirt if Berge is a go. Granted the delta between Shak and Beard may not be huge, the impact is huge when combined with the Berge calculus. In my illustration we could win with Shak but then again it is cutting it very close. Conversely it makes zero sense pulling the sirt without Berge. The 197 decision can not be decided in a vacuum, or at least I believe Cael's product for 4D chess indicates he looks at every decision from all sides before pulling the trigger.

I'll stand by the assertion that the 197 decision is absolutely a 'team' decision this year

 

[Random4598375]

So I'll present this scenario as a silly but relevant illustration. Cael is in his private bunker planning his nationals strategy. Say his math shows ignoring 149 and 197 Iowa wins by 20 points.

Let's say we have this I terms of points opportunity:

Beard = 10-18 points
Shak = 8-12 points
Berge = 10-15 points
Pipher = 0-2 points

It makes total sense that you only pull Beard's shirt if Berge is a go. Granted the delta between Shak and Beard may not be huge, the impact is huge when combined with the Berge calculus. In my illustration we could win with Shak but then again it is cutting it very close. Conversely it makes zero sense pulling the sirt without Berge. The 197 decision can not be decided in a vacuum, or at least I believe Cael's product for 4D chess indicates he looks at every decision from all sides before pulling the trigger.

I'll stand by the assertion that the 197 decision is absolutely a 'team' decision this year

Yeah, I get how that might work, but the calculus on a rusty Berge is likely to be more like 2-15 than 10-15, and Beard as well since there would be so many unknowns about him jumping in mid-Feb. It seems unlikely that Cael would be confident enough in either one to think there is a high enough probability they will put PSU over the top to pull the shirt.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Berge is a more complicated question. There are 2 things to think about. First, obviously, is to make sure he is 100% healthy with no risk of further injury before he comes back. I think we all expect that will be the case before they even consider letting him go.

The second consideration is whether Cael thinks that Berge's points with the layoff that he had would be the difference between beating Iowa and not. If it's not and he can get a medical RS for an extra year of eligibility by not wrestling, they may opt to leave him on the sidelines even if he is technically healthy enough to go. That will be a tricky decision if it comes to that.

While we all recognize the NCAA has been more lenient with the “medical redshirt” or grant of 6th year recently, that is a gamble you can’t really take:

the NCAA doesn’t have a pre decision discussion about whether an athlete can get the 6th year. And...

by written criteria, he does not qualify if only because one has to lose 2 years to injury. The redshirt year doesn’t count because the redshirt was a choice.

Never mind the fact that he did wrestle one time, an act that in any other first year wrestler qualifies for pulling a shirt.

Bottom line:
If Berge CAN wrestle, he will wrestle.

 

[CurtisLoew40]

Noah Adams sighting. Love it.

 

[Ski]

Agree. A 90% Shak is probably within 5 points of Beard which is not enough of a delta considering the value of a whole year.

The bigger challenge is Berge. Without him it is still doable but I think we will need the perfect scenario of things breaking for us and Iowa underachieving across multiple weight classes.

Without Berge on the lineup my somewhat contrarian view is there is even less justification to pull Beard's shirt.

In any case we may know more Saturday. My fingers are still crossed. Even with Berge, given close to 4 months of no competitive matches, what version of him could we reasonably expect to get? Low AA is reasonable which ain't bad, but visions of him being top 4 are IMO too optimistic.

I would agree if we had a 90% Shak. It is opinion, but I see a 70% Shak and I don’t have high hopes of him improving much between now and March. The decision to pull Beard’s shirt needs to be made depending on whether Cael thinks he can put us in title contention or not. If he can’t make a significant difference in the team race then you don’t pull the shirt. Love Shak and what he has contributed to the program, but if he has to sit for the team to get a title, then he sits.

 

[Dogwelder]

I would agree if we had a 90% Shak. It is opinion, but I see a 70% Shak...

Never tell Shak the odds/percentages!

 

[ChiPackHawk]

Thanks for posting these, Roar! I can't remember what Bo's and Nolf's were last year, but pretty sure they were both significantly above 5.0.

It's hard to get much above 5.0 when you're constantly tech falling others in the 1st period - Spencer Lee.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

It's hard to get much above 5.0 when you're constantly tech falling others in the 1st period - Spencer Lee.

In 5th grade I was taught you want to pin the other guy. If any wrestler can tilt at will but not get both shoulderblades down he still has work to do. You can usually not to get to a tech in the first without multiple tilts.

Who am I to say the best kid in the nation can improve, but given his utter dominance over everyone he faces, he should work on setting up higher quality turns and getting more pins. There may come a time where 5 vs 6 could be big for the team

 

[Dogwelder]

It's hard to get much above 5.0 when you're constantly tech falling others in the 1st period - Spencer Lee.

Exactly! I have also noticed it’s hard to get A’s when you’re constantly getting B’s.

 

[dmm53]

Today's rankings

https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestli...Awards-Standings-Valencia-leads-Most-Dominant

 

[ChiPackHawk]

In 5th grade I was taught you want to pin the other guy. If any wrestler can tilt at will but not get both shoulderblades down he still has work to do. You can usually not to get to a tech in the first without multiple tilts.

Who am I to say the best kid in the nation can improve, but given his utter dominance over everyone he faces, he should work on setting up higher quality turns and getting more pins. There may come a time where 5 vs 6 could be big for the team

I agree with you. The one area is in the gauntlet that is the NCAA tournament, getting off the mat as soon as possible is crucial. Getting that quick tech is beneficial here.