Nebraska/Illinois Okie State/Oklahoma
- Thread starter tbay165
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I've metioned this before. A lot of posters assume that every top wrestler should want to attend Penn State for how good the room and staff are.
Other factors do come in play. From the thought of career choice ,to scholarship money,the location and the environment of school. It isn't always entirely a wrestling decision.
I know, if I, as a parent would of committed a lot of money and time to help my child excel in a sport, I would have looked at the financial/scholarship benefits a school was offering to influence the decision on what college my child might attend.
I just don't think it's an automatic that a wrestler should want to go to Penn State.
Just the one's with a good head on their shoulders, that want to experience an environment like no other which will shape the rest of their lives.
Off subject - I wish John Smith would just shut down Dustin Plott. Two weeks in a row his shoulder has apparently been dislocated and he just pops it back in and finishes a match in pain. Kid is so talented and has a bright future, it's not worth it...
How is Plott gonna get down to 141 if he doesn't sever a limb?
I foresee another round of Cowboy recruits generally fizzling out save a few exceptions. Despite all the noise about other programs (and Smith’s whining about RTCs), they’ve recruited great the last few years, but have fallen behind. He could well ruin Plott here
Shoulder dislocations are no joke ... obviously there are different degrees to them (Plott's I imagine isn't as bad as Cassar's which needed surgery and took him out 2 years) but if a kid's shoulder leaves the socket, DEFAULT THE MATCH.
And it's now happened two matches in a row, and I'm assuming has been happening in the room given how casually he's been popping it back in. I really don't want us to get to the Alex Smith zone of being afraid Plott gets hurt every time he steps on the mat. He was one of my favorite recent prospects. He's not a 5th year senior on one last run. He's got a long career ahead of him. I'd shut him down.
I'm not even trying to accuse John Smith of pressuring the kid to wrestle hurt. I have a great deal of respect for him and he's clearly willing to pull the plug on his wrestlers season if it's serious (Kaid Brock, Boo Lewallen both have been shut down before) Weigel defaulted out of the 2018 tournamnet. But to watch Plott continuously try to give it a go is just scary.
Agreed, something's amiss if a 19-20 year-old is popping a shoulder back in place and finishing a match. Not a doctor, but this doesn't sound like it's in the wrestler's best interest at all. We've all seen what a marginally compromised shoulder or knee can do to a career. I'm a John Smith fan, so what are we missing here.
People in the media wont talk bad about smith and neither will i.
However there is an article that could be written about the big name fizzles.
Each program has them but they seem to have more than most.
From the next training session in the same series -- when they're allowed to eat in the postseason:
Dunk, did you see the Flo article, something about seeds vs placement at NCAA's? Oklahoma State showed up on the wrong end of the list, so your "seem to have more than most" re. fizzles is backed up with some rough math.
I also did that math last year, from 2010--2019 -- a good 10-yr sample (that coincided with Cael's first 10 yrs at PSU).
Expected results were based upon actual scores across the entire 10-yr span (including bonus) -- the champs averaged 20.3 pts, runners-up averaged 16.6 pts, etc. Everybody below 12th seed was lumped together, avg 1.6 pts.
Then compared each team's actual scores against their expected results.
1. PSU +21.6/yr
2. Ohio State +9.9/yr
3. Goofers +9.5/yr
4. Iowa +8.2/yr
5. Cornell +7.5/yr
Etc.
T16. OKST +0.9/yr (tied with Lehigh)
That's a little unfair -- includes schools with fewer seeds (far easier to outperform).
So if you limit it to teams with 20 or more Top 4 seeds in the decade: OKST 6th out of 7 schools. (The Goofers fall out,, and only Missouri was worse than OKST at -3.9/yr.)
BTW, PSU had by far the most top seeds AND the biggest overachievement vs expected results.
We'll see what happens, and if they tweak their math a little. Contacted Spey with a suggestion to normalize the data. The dispartity is partly driven by the number of wrestlers included in their model, which adds a level of bias. I don't have the base numbers, though they'd be easy to get...so I'm hoping they make the easy adjustment and repost.
You used bonus points in your math it appears. They did not from what I remember. It also adds bias if all one is looking for is seed vs placement.
Yes I did.
It comes down to what is being measured. If you're trying to measure if someone placed higher than his seed, bonus pts skew that. But if you're trying to measure effect (and the team goal is maximum pts), then bonus is needed.
Also IMO expected results without bonus is a half-analysis. Bonus will be scored, so why not include that in the baseline?
Wasn't much of a mystery, apparently.
Q outscored expected results by +35.2 pts -- which makes him the 9th most overachieving team of the decade after Iowa State.
Amazing that he had the biggest total margin among PSU wrestlers in the decade, since his freshman year was outside that window.
Care to guess who was 2nd? (Hint: 2nd biggest total and 2nd most per year are two different guys. Next hint: 2nd most per year is a small sample size guy.)
I did see it. Agree with the overall premise.
Funny but not funny. I think if you look at timing of that article with discussion and threads here in BWI....we may have been in first.
Some articles write themselves others get some juice from anonymous posters on message boards across the interwebs, who never get credit.
It's why I've often thought/posted anonymous posters should get a once a week 15 minutes of fame on FRL. We all know that's how Vais got there, but the reach around has yet to happen
#ax2grind
LemonPie is maybe the only poster that I noticed getting 15 minutes. He did a cool statistics compilation of some sort.
Think you are right. He should shut him down. I had same type injury when I was a senior in highschool. Being my senior year I didnt want to sit out so I played through it. I was a qb and out of nowhere it would just pop out. Wasnt like extremely painful but it was a weird sensation. It was probably strange for people in stands to watch my lineman help me pop it back in. Lol.
This is a situation that's hard to say without being there.
One my HS teammates dislocated his shoulder in a November football game -- he was our punt returner and wrestled 138. (The joys of Central PA football.) Missed the first 2 months of wrestling, and when he returned his shoulder was mummified with ace bandages and athletic tape. He said it didn't bother him, but just the same the coaches worked him hard on getting out of bottom before he could get that arm barred up.
To his credit, he finished 3rd at NE AAA regionals (with a 2x state champ/future 2x D1 AA in his bracket), and qualified for states.
So you just never know.
Still, I'd be cautious.
I think both are interesting, but the Flo analysis is clearly stated as Seed vs Placement, no mention of bonus. I like it better when comparing the coaches overall ability to coach a wrestler up...or not, and Placement Points alone does that better. Said another way, on one side of the model is Seed, which doesn't have a Bonus Point component, so the other side of the model (in this case Placement) shouldn't either.
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