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NEW... Most Accurate* ..2019 Wrestling Recruiting Rankings by Sportsfan

Sportfan2017

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Jun 28, 2017
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RYAN VULAKH UPDATED to RUTGERS:
YOU asked for it**….I DELIVER. For the 3rd consecutive year I am posting my Recruiting rankings using the formula I keep tweaking in the hopes that it will not only rank the recruiting classes by numerical order but also assign a numerical value to each team's recruits that will (hopefully) accurately predict the ratio of points you can expect from the class. So if team A has 400 points and team B has 200 points......then you can expect Team A's recruits to double the NCAA output of team B. It doesn't mean they will score 400 points...…..it is a ratio. From looking at the production of top 10 recruits at NCAA and comparing it to the production of those ranked 11-20 and 30-40 etc......I have been trying to come up with a formula that will predict success based on previous patterns. There has been a LOT more data produced on this subject in the last 3-4 years so it should be easier to test. I have used mostly the more recent data because I think the rating agencies are getting better at ranking because there are so many opportunities for the quality wrestlers to perform.....therefore better/larger database to assign rankings.
The trick is to assign point totals that reflect the production disparity of top 10 recruits as compared to the 11-20 and the 21-30 group etc. The point scale I chose is heavily weighted towards the top and goes down at a rate that is supposed to emulate actual results of each group. Here goes:

I used FLO's Big Board 2019 rankings and assigned points accordingly ( after a few test runs ):

1. 150 Pts ....... 6. 121....... 11. 105
2. 142 .............. 7. 117....... 12. 102
3. 135 ........... .. 8. 114....... 13. 100
4. 129 .............. 9. 111.......
5. 125 ............. 10. 108
From 14-20......drop 2 points each placement. So #20 is 88 points. After that......drop 1 point per placement.......Giving #100 5 points Got it? This year's results: INTERMAT rankings in ()
TEAM: Total Points FLO ranking of recruits
1(1) Ohio St.... 535...………….1, 4, 5, 32, 50
2(3) Cornell..... 405...…………10, 15, 21, 61, 69, 78, 98
3(12) Rutgers...402...………...6, 26, 34, 28, 64, 81
4.(2) Az. State.. 393...…………2, 7, 35, 44
5(5) Va. Tech . 250...………...13, 28, 41, 99
6(13) Fres. St. 240...………...12, 52, 54, 71
7(18) N. Colo. 227...………...3, 57, 60
8(8) Okla. St.. 225...………...24, 25, 47
9(4) Wiscon... 216...………...23, 36, 48
10(9) Iowa St. 209...………...11, 20. 89
11(14) Lehigh 194...…………45, 51, 62, 68
12(6) Nebras. 181...………...16, 30, 96
13(16) NC St. 176...………...34, 49, 72, 92
14(11) Mich... 163...………...17, 37
15(10) Illinois 156...………...18, 39
16(17) Penn... 150...………...19, 63, 85
17(7) Okla. ….. 130...………...56, 59, 70
18(19) N Iowa 121...………...14, 82
19(UR) N. Car 114...………...38, 72, 93
19(21) Stanf.. 114...………...8
21(22) PSU.... 111...………...9
22(20) Iowa....101...………...29, 83
23(24).Northwestern. 97………..53, 74, 91
24(UR) Virgin .. 94...…………33, 86
25(UR) PITT ... 88...………...42, 80
26(15) Minn.... 81...………...27
27(HM) Mi. St. 77...………...31
Thoughts:
-Not sure how Intermat didn't rank North Carolina....3 top 100 recruits including Gabe Tagg...who many would have a lot higher than 38 now.
-Not sure how Oklahoma can be so high(7th) with their highest recruit being #56
-Not sure how Rutgers can be so low and behind Oklahoma when Rutgers has 4 top 100 recruits including #6 and #43. How does 56, 59 and 70 beat #6, 43, 64 and 81?... #6 is 50 places HIGHER than #56. #43 is 16 places higher than #59 and #64 is 6 places higher than #70. Then the EXTRA 4th pick at #81 has no comparison. NO logical explanation for Rutgers to be close to Oklahoma...let alone BEHIND. There has to be some serious halucinogins involved here :).
-Not sure how Indiana got ranked without a single top 100 recruit
-Not sure how Northern Colorado can be so low when they got #3 Alirez.....who may outscore many of the teams ranked ahead of them by himself.
-Not sure how Minnesota's is 7 spots above Penn State when they both have one top 100 recruit. Penn State has #9 while Minnesota has #27 ??
-PITT IS RANK…...I mean RANKED :)
-Compared to last year....the recruits are more spread out among more teams

*Prediction Accuracy void in all States but Catatonic.
** Full Disclosure.....Nobody ask for it :)
As per usual....if you have any suggestions or complaints.....feel free to call or text to 1-800-BITE ME!
ENJOY!!
 
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EXTRA: Just for Shirts and Giggles ..I used this formula on last year's PSU and Ohio St. Lineups that started at Big 10's...and NCAAs. Ohio State recruits got 919 points compared to PSU getting 893. That 2.5% difference is pretty negligible so the prediction would be that it would pretty much be a dead heat. It wasn't. One factor may have been that OSU started 3 freshman ( one undersized ) and PSU had 2. The main difference of course was that Cassar wasn't a top 100 recruit so counted as zero points and won the whole thing. So.....did Cael just see something that others missed? Did they coach Cassar up beyond what was expected? Does Anthony possess a Drive, Work Ethic and Self-Belief that fueled his rise to the top? The answer is Yes, Yes and ABSOLUTELY YES!
 
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Outstanding. Although the way things are going, each class should be rated when cruits enroll not necessarily when they sign. The PSU class of 2018 is a case in point.
 
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I find this hard to believe as the Iowa Hawkeyes are not ranked. Or do my eyes play tricks on me ;)
 
YOU asked for it**….I DELIVER. For the 3rd consecutive year I am posting my Recruiting rankings using the formula I keep tweaking in the hopes that it will not only rank the recruiting classes by numerical order but also assign a numerical value to each team's recruits that will (hopefully) accurately predict the ratio of points you can expect from the class. So if team A has 400 points and team B has 200 points......then you can expect Team A's recruits to double the NCAA output of team B. It doesn't mean they will score 400 points...…..it is a ratio. From looking at the production of top 10 recruits at NCAA and comparing it to the production of those ranked 11-20 and 30-40 etc......I have been trying to come up with a formula that will predict success based on previous patterns. There has been a LOT more data produced on this subject in the last 3-4 years so it should be easier to test. I have used mostly the more recent data because I think the rating agencies are getting better at ranking because there are so many opportunities for the quality wrestlers to perform.....therefore better/larger database to assign rankings.
The trick is to assign point totals that reflect the production disparity of top 10 recruits as compared to the 11-20 and the 21-30 group etc. The point scale I chose is heavily weighted towards the top and goes down at a rate that is supposed to emulate actual results of each group. Here goes:

I used FLO's Big Board 2019 rankings and assigned points accordingly ( after a few test runs ):

1. 150 Pts ....... 6. 121....... 11. 105
2. 142 .............. 7. 117....... 12. 102
3. 135 ........... .. 8. 114....... 13. 100
4. 129 .............. 9. 111.......
5. 125 ............. 10. 108
From 14-20......drop 2 points each placement. So #20 is 88 points. After that......drop 1 point per placement.......Giving #100 5 points Got it? This year's results: INTERMAT rankings in ()
TEAM: Total Points FLO ranking of recruits
1(1) Ohio St.... 535...………….1, 4, 5, 32, 50
2(3) Cornell..... 405...…………10, 15, 21, 61, 69, 78, 98
3(2) Ariz. St. ... 393...…………2, 7, 35, 44
4(5) Va. Tech . 250...………...13, 28, 41, 99
5(12) Rutgers . 248...………...6, 43, 64, 81
6(13) Fres. St. 240...………...12, 52, 54, 71
7(18) N. Colo. 227...………...3, 57, 60
8(8) Okla. St.. 225...………...24, 25, 47
9(4) Wiscon... 216...………...23, 36, 48
10(9) Iowa St. 209...………...11, 20. 89
11(14) Lehigh 194...…………45, 51, 62, 68
12(6) Nebras. 181...………...16, 30, 96
13(16) NC St. 176...………...34, 49, 72, 92
14(11) Mich... 163...………...17, 37
15(10) Illinois 156...………...18, 39
16(17) Penn... 150...………...19, 63, 85
17(7) Okla. ….. 130...………...56, 59, 70
18(19) N Iowa 121...………...14, 82
19(UR) N. Car 114...………...38, 72, 93
19(21) Stanf.. 114...………...8
21(22) PSU.... 111...………...9
22(20) Iowa....101...………...29, 83
23(UR) Virgin .. 94...…………33, 86
24(UR) PITT ... 88...………...42, 80
25(15) Minn.... 81...………...27
26(HM) Mi. St. 77...………...31
Thoughts:
-Not sure how Intermat didn't rank North Carolina....3 top 100 recruits including Gabe Tagg...who many would have a lot higher than 38 now.
-Not sure how Oklahoma can be so high(7th) with their highest recruit being #56
-Not sure how Rutgers can be so low and behind Oklahoma when Rutgers has 4 top 100 recruits including #6 and #43. How does 56, 59 and 70 beat #6, 43, 64 and 81?
-Not sure how Indiana got ranked without a single top 100 recruit
-Not sure how Northern Colorado can be so low when they got #3 Alirez.....who may outscore many of the teams ranked ahead of them by himself.
-Not sure how Minnesota's is 7 spots above Penn State when they both have one top 100 recruit. Penn State has #9 while Minnesota has #27 ??
-PITT IS RANK…...I mean RANKED :)
-Compared to last year....the recruits are more spread out among more teams

*Prediction Accuracy void in all States but Catatonic.
** Full Disclosure.....Nobody ask for it :)
As per usual....if you have any suggestions or complaints.....feel free to call or text to 1-800-BITE ME!
ENJOY!!
Can you provide access to your 2017 and 2018 recap’s
 
Can you provide access to your 2017 and 2018 recap’s

I have 2018 handy.....will search for 2017:

1. Penn State .......2, 11, 12, 16, 20, 22, 34 ................... 683 Pts.
2. Ohio State.........4, 10, 15, 24, 35, 37, 78, 98..............589 Pts
3. Minnesota.........1, 13, 29, 38.......................................394 Pts.
4. Michigan...........3, 7, 28................................................330 Pts.
5. Missouri............39, 41, 42, 54, 73, 84, 89...................313 Pts
6. Nebraska..........9, 27, 31, 66, 100................................309 Pts.
7. N.C. State.........18, 23, 56, 74, 81................................277 Pts.
8. Princeton...........17, 40, 67, 86......................................214 Pts.
9. Ok. State...........6, 33.....................................................196 Pts.
10. Iowa St............5, 45....................................................185 Pts.
11. Stanford..........19, 21, 99............................................179 Pts.
12. N. Carolina.....46, 47, 52.............................................170 Pts.
13. Wisconsin......50, 53, 75.............................................137 Pts.
14. Northwestern.49, 58, 72.............................................136 Pts.
15. Purdue............36, 55....................................................120 Pts.
16. Az. State.........8............................................................114 Pts.
17. Iowa................14, 93....................................................110 Pts.
18. Rutgers..........65, 69, 85.................................................96 Pts.
19. Penn..............26..............................................................80 Pts.
20. Rider..............32..............................................................74 Pts.

Others: N. Iowa 61, V. Tech 60, Cornell 54, Fresno State 35, Lehigh 34, Oklahoma 27, PITT 26 Tee Hee
 
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Outstanding, sportfan! I prefer looking and judging quality over quantity. I prefer blending classes together instead of focusing on just class.
 
Outstanding. Although the way things are going, each class should be rated when cruits enroll not necessarily when they sign. The PSU class of 2018 is a case in point.

Agreed. But it is easy to do. Just put in the Lineup and look at the predicted points at the time they were recruited...….no matter when they take the mat or what year they were recruited. I did it for this year's PSU and Ohio State team above. I'll try to post more later.
 
YOU asked for it**….I DELIVER. For the 3rd consecutive year I am posting my Recruiting rankings using the formula I keep tweaking in the hopes that it will not only rank the recruiting classes by numerical order but also assign a numerical value to each team's recruits that will (hopefully) accurately predict the ratio of points you can expect from the class. So if team A has 400 points and team B has 200 points......then you can expect Team A's recruits to double the NCAA output of team B. It doesn't mean they will score 400 points...…..it is a ratio. From looking at the production of top 10 recruits at NCAA and comparing it to the production of those ranked 11-20 and 30-40 etc......I have been trying to come up with a formula that will predict success based on previous patterns. There has been a LOT more data produced on this subject in the last 3-4 years so it should be easier to test. I have used mostly the more recent data because I think the rating agencies are getting better at ranking because there are so many opportunities for the quality wrestlers to perform.....therefore better/larger database to assign rankings.
The trick is to assign point totals that reflect the production disparity of top 10 recruits as compared to the 11-20 and the 21-30 group etc. The point scale I chose is heavily weighted towards the top and goes down at a rate that is supposed to emulate actual results of each group. Here goes:

I used FLO's Big Board 2019 rankings and assigned points accordingly ( after a few test runs ):

1. 150 Pts ....... 6. 121....... 11. 105
2. 142 .............. 7. 117....... 12. 102
3. 135 ........... .. 8. 114....... 13. 100
4. 129 .............. 9. 111.......
5. 125 ............. 10. 108
From 14-20......drop 2 points each placement. So #20 is 88 points. After that......drop 1 point per placement.......Giving #100 5 points Got it? This year's results: INTERMAT rankings in ()
TEAM: Total Points FLO ranking of recruits
1(1) Ohio St.... 535...………….1, 4, 5, 32, 50
2(3) Cornell..... 405...…………10, 15, 21, 61, 69, 78, 98
3(2) Ariz. St. ... 393...…………2, 7, 35, 44
4(5) Va. Tech . 250...………...13, 28, 41, 99
5(12) Rutgers . 248...………...6, 43, 64, 81
6(13) Fres. St. 240...………...12, 52, 54, 71
7(18) N. Colo. 227...………...3, 57, 60
8(8) Okla. St.. 225...………...24, 25, 47
9(4) Wiscon... 216...………...23, 36, 48
10(9) Iowa St. 209...………...11, 20. 89
11(14) Lehigh 194...…………45, 51, 62, 68
12(6) Nebras. 181...………...16, 30, 96
13(16) NC St. 176...………...34, 49, 72, 92
14(11) Mich... 163...………...17, 37
15(10) Illinois 156...………...18, 39
16(17) Penn... 150...………...19, 63, 85
17(7) Okla. ….. 130...………...56, 59, 70
18(19) N Iowa 121...………...14, 82
19(UR) N. Car 114...………...38, 72, 93
19(21) Stanf.. 114...………...8
21(22) PSU.... 111...………...9
22(20) Iowa....101...………...29, 83
23(UR) Virgin .. 94...…………33, 86
24(UR) PITT ... 88...………...42, 80
25(15) Minn.... 81...………...27
26(HM) Mi. St. 77...………...31
Thoughts:
-Not sure how Intermat didn't rank North Carolina....3 top 100 recruits including Gabe Tagg...who many would have a lot higher than 38 now.
-Not sure how Oklahoma can be so high(7th) with their highest recruit being #56
-Not sure how Rutgers can be so low and behind Oklahoma when Rutgers has 4 top 100 recruits including #6 and #43. How does 56, 59 and 70 beat #6, 43, 64 and 81?
-Not sure how Indiana got ranked without a single top 100 recruit
-Not sure how Northern Colorado can be so low when they got #3 Alirez.....who may outscore many of the teams ranked ahead of them by himself.
-Not sure how Minnesota's is 7 spots above Penn State when they both have one top 100 recruit. Penn State has #9 while Minnesota has #27 ??
-PITT IS RANK…...I mean RANKED :)
-Compared to last year....the recruits are more spread out among more teams

*Prediction Accuracy void in all States but Catatonic.
** Full Disclosure.....Nobody ask for it :)
As per usual....if you have any suggestions or complaints.....feel free to call or text to 1-800-BITE ME!
ENJOY!!
Ty for this! I was also wondering how RU was ranked so low behind some of the other teams.. it made no sense..
 
Why did we drop so low?
Who is "we"? I am guessing it is PSU. They didn't "drop"...…..when you have only one top 100 in your recruiting class....it is kinda hard to be ranked high that year. Keep in mind this is a purely mathematical analysis. It does not factor in need, lineup holes, other previous recruits....nothing. Like when Vincenzo was PSU's only top 100 recruit. Not a high team ranking.....but when you plug a hole in your lineup with a National Champ......that was one hell of a recruit(ing) class. Mathematics doesn't count the importance of that. If Starocci fills a hole with high productivity......then it was a HUGE recruit. If he just provides a very competent backup.....not so much.
 
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Exactly. If they start winning some more NCs, expect the Buckeyes to be the new cause celebre for HR.
They're OK with the Bucks for now because they can use math to beat them. Even with the 2015 title and 2 or 3 2nds to the hawks 1- 2nd since '10 they still average 2nd best. New bragging right-We're average 2nd best. Dr Gunter Zoolof could have been a genius if he came up with a formula to get them past Cael.
686282437_1280x720.jpg
 
Great post. It just amazes me how many top recruits Cornell signs every year. Koll is a master of the system. Rutgers now up to 5 top 100 recruits.

Top 100 Recruits

#6-JoJo Aragona, PA (141/149)

#26-Ryan Vulakh, PA (149/157)

#43-Jackson Turley, VA (174/184)

#64-Rob Kanniard, NJ (165/174)

#81-Devon Britton, PA (141)

Others: Zach Delvecchio, NJ (285)

Just seeing 3 of those guys from the Keystone State is Huge!
 
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I FOUND MY 2017 WORK:

Obviously this was Pre-Iowa State De-commitments.....Pre-Lee Injury and before I saw Daton wrestle a few more times :)....trying to locate my updated version

Since I haven't seen any site ranking the 2017 NCAA Wrestling recruits......and I can't sleep.....I thought I would take a stab at it. I am certain mine will be different than most sites. I put a premium on guys who are projected to be high All Americans over a team that got a lot of guys ranked 40-80. So my scale is weighted towards the top 10...then 10-20...then 30-40....etc with a bigger drop off between 4 and 5 than between 44 and 45. Last year Ohio State had two guys that were in the top 10....first in their weight class but were rated behind Purdue and Iowa State who had zero top 20 guys and Nebraska, and Purdue that had only 1 top 10. I would have had Ohio State 4th....not 8th. Anyway....here is what I came up with...........Cornell and Iowa were pretty much deadlocked with Iowa State as far as overall points ....but Cornell got the #2 and #4 ranked wrestlers while Iowa got #1 and #8. I go with Iowa because they got Spencer Lee. If there is such a thing as a "Sure Thing"....he gets my vote. So call them 1 and 1A if you want. Iowa State got #9 and #14...plus two other top 50 guys so they get my #3. After these 3 there is a pretty big drop off. I give Penn State the #4 spot for landing #5 Nick Lee and #7 Brady Berge. That is their only incoming recruits this year....but they are good ones. This rating is conditional on Berge....who is the top rated 160 lb wrestler entering his senior year.....says he will red-shirt and wrestle at 149lb in 2018-2019. Wow. Just remember Mason Manville was top rated at 152lbs. last year and over the summer wrestled at 80 Kg ( 176lbs. ) Where is he going to fit in? Anyway..I digress. I have Ok. State at #5 because they got #3 rated Daton Fix as well as another top 30. Ohio State I slot in at #6 for getting #6 and #23. Now comes Oklahoma at #7. I am sure others will have them higher because they got 7 wrestlers in the top 90....more than anyone. But their highest rated is #28....so while this makes them a much tougher dual meet team......will it transfer to NCAA points? I am guessing not as much. After #7 there is another drop-off to the next 5. Here is my top 12. I should Mention Navy had a good year recruiting and would probably break the top 10....but I kinda focused on the "National Powers" that will be in the running for Championships. Keep in mind that schools like NC State don't even show in the top 12 ...but they had the #1 ranked class last year and had few scholarships this year....still a great team. I am guessing that 5 of the top six in next year's recruiting will be the top 5 schools this year.....so the good keep getting better. I am not certain Cornell will be a top 5 team this year but they certainly will continue to be strong in the years to come........It will be interesting to see how this compares to the experts:

1. Iowa.........................#1, 8, 51, 87
2. Cornell.....................#2, 4, 68, 81
3. Iowa State................#9, 14, 30, 48
4. Penn State................#5, 7
5 Oklahoma State........#3, 31
6. Ohio State.................#6, 23
7. Oklahoma..................#28, 33, 41, 54, 56, 70, 89
8. Michigan....................#24, 43, 45, 52
9. Nebraska...................#10, 20, 85
10.North Carolina..........#25, 37, 69, 74, 82
11.Virginia Tech.............#21, 49, 61, 88
12.Missouri.....................#34, 57

UPDATED VERSION: Before McKenna and Lugo announced Sorry its so long.

Last November I took a stab at rating the top wrestling recruiting classes for 2017. Since then there have been numerous de-commitments and transfers with a few more likely in the near future. Some wrestlers moved up the rankings and others dropped So I decided to update my rankings. To review I had listed them as such: ( Can you tell I am bored and still awake?
Since I posted that Iowa State has had 3 top recruits de-commit. One went to Minnesota...One to Ohio State and the other to Penn State. DII Champion at 165 Isaiah White transferred to Nebraska. Te'shan Campbell ( 165 ) transferred from Pitt to Ohio State and Cory Keener ( 133 ) came to Penn State. So....my new ratings are as such:
1. Iowa...still Anytime you get a lifetime 125 lb. wrestler who happens to be one of the best to ever step on a Pa. mat AND the #1 197lber and a solid heavyweight ( The 3 hardest weights to fill with quality ) plus a local Pa. guy....you win.
2. Cornell For all the same reasons as before
3. Ohio State Close call with Penn State but the kicker for me is Te'Shan Campbell. His record as a sophomore was 22-4. Yes he lost to Joseph 9-5 but he is one of the most athletically gifted 165 lbers in the country and fills a dead spot in Ohio State's lineup. Big get. If they also get Joey McKenna.....all holes are filled.
4. Penn State. They added Verkleeren and Keener since November. Not exactly sure where Verleeren fits in yet. Keener is a 133 that has graduated.....never scored more than 2.5 points at NCAAs Not an Earth Shattering addition but helpful.
5. Oklahoma
State....they got FIX ....a top 4 ( or higher ) threat as soon as he steps on the mat plus a couple others
6. Nebraska.....Big move up after getting Isaiah White....very talented. Every dual meet in the Big 10 will have a Marquee match-up at 165 next year. Can't wait
7. Oklahoma and everyone else moves up one spot as Iowa State plummets.

It looks like the best will stay the best for a while. Should be exciting to watch. Also...keep an eye on where McKenna and Lugo end up if they decide to transfer. That could decide who the NCAA favorite will be next yea
 
Make that 6 top 100 with the Sammy Alvarez signing - #3 @ 126 lbs and #34 overall. His addition places Rutgers 2019 recruiting class #3, with 402 pts. Not too shabby.
Thanks.....saves me the trouble of doing the math :)
 
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