I don't disagree but you need a top six to win. There is a greater probability that a top physical talent could be successful, you also have the Brady's and Purdy's that weren't expected to be good. Penix could well end up being the pick of the draft. The falcons had him the second best QB in the draft and never thought he'd be there. I also have to say that the value of the draft has diminished since the Cap and Free Agency. Teams can fill holes without drafting players so drafting a young QB at 1, if he pans out, allows you to use that cap space until he gets his first FA contract.
Specifically to your point on Mayfield and that draft...it went like this:
- Mayfield - The team sucked and they felt they needed a hard nosed kid, one that embraced the caos and not a premadonna. They had Darnold #2 as All was from a small school (Wyoming).
- Darnold - he ended up being the second worst of the lot (3)
- Allen (7)
- Rosen (10)
- Lamar Jackson (at 32)
today, you'd draft Allen, Jackson, Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen. Interestingly, not a QB taken after 32 until Rudolf got picked at 76 in the 3rd round.
The only point here is that it is a crap shoot. You get a kid that has a strong enough arm to hit all the routes and the rest is a complete gamble.