Michigan has a great team perhaps, but hasn't played anyone. Michigan can take an L Saturday and still be fine. Our season is over as far as any national goals if don't win Saturday. We better be approaching this game like it's everything and not like Michigan is some great team that we should be honored to be beaten by. I think without the advantage they've had the past couple of years we win this game.
No One Picking Us....What ya Got?
- Thread starter ryoder1
- Start date
Yeah nice analysis but there's only one thing that really matters -- PSU O lacks speed and playmakers. Lambert Smith is PSU's fastest player and he's not fast enough to scare Michigan corners. Without Singleton at 100% and without a QB who can run for 1st downs, it's not nearly as effective an offense as last year at this time.
PSU's defense was completely overmatched last year and they'll do better this year but that's not enough to keep it close. The game will be over by midway through 3Q. PSU fans will come down on Franklin but this one wasn't lost coaching, it was lost recruiting.
Part of coaching, no??
I’ll add that the 4th down decision in the third qtr when the score was still close was questionable as well.
Exactly... why would a seasoned bettor and expert in the game pick PSU? What has Franklin's teams done to warrant being picked in a big game, home or away? A lot of the national people are saying "its Penn State". Franklin's has got to reverse that opinion and he has another chance this weekend. Will he deliver? I so want to believe he will but its hard to when he hasn't.
I think that the teams will both play it close to the vest to start. Michigan will try to run first. We will try to stop the run. We will try to run and short passes, much like at OSU. Michigan will try to stop the run. Both teams will rely on their D's for field position. Big plays and turnovers will be key. I fear their QB's legs. Unless something goes haywire, it will be a low scoring slugfest at half. 7 - 6 or so.
Unfortunately, I believe that if this is the case, as home underdog, Franklin will stay very conservative and try to pull out a close victory. Typically, away teams in games like this will become conservative as well. Ultimately, I see another OSU type game. Hopefully, it goes our way.
I want to see if our d-line is switching out as they have. Don't want the 4th quarter collapse due to being worn down. Same for M, they haven't played 3 quarters all year, so we should try to wear them down as much as possible.
Can't go 3 and out. Need 2nd and 3rd and short. Don't give up on the run like at OSU. Singleton gained 35 yards on 3 straight carries then they threw on 1st down and ruined their momentum.
Need to keep M behind the sticks. 2nd and 3rd and long are our friends.
We win 24 - 20. I hope.
Unfortunately, I believe that if this is the case, as home underdog, Franklin will stay very conservative and try to pull out a close victory. Typically, away teams in games like this will become conservative as well. Ultimately, I see another OSU type game. Hopefully, it goes our way.
I want to see if our d-line is switching out as they have. Don't want the 4th quarter collapse due to being worn down. Same for M, they haven't played 3 quarters all year, so we should try to wear them down as much as possible.
Can't go 3 and out. Need 2nd and 3rd and short. Don't give up on the run like at OSU. Singleton gained 35 yards on 3 straight carries then they threw on 1st down and ruined their momentum.
Need to keep M behind the sticks. 2nd and 3rd and long are our friends.
We win 24 - 20. I hope.
I agree with you that keeping the defense fresh is really important. We need to grind out 1st downs on offense but also need the D to get some 3 and outs.
Initially, when I read your assessment about Franklin going conservative, I thought he should just go balls-to-the-wall, swing for the fences, spread them out and be super aggressive but then I thought he really is in a no-win situation. If he goes conservative, as you note, it's more prudent especially at home but if they lose, everyone will be "same story as OSU, will he ever change?" But if he goes hyper aggressive and loses, he'll be criticized for not being prudent and taking the opportunities as they come.
I am an outsider and a Michigan fan and will describe what I view as the path to victory. I agree with Ward Hog. The key to a PSU victory is to rely on the strength of the team, which is the defense. PSU has to absolutely Iowa out. I have read pundits claiming Franklin needs to air the ball out and take risks. This will play right into Michigan's hands as mistakes mean a short field. The Iowa way of great defense, picking up on Def/SP TD, and make one tactical risk when the choice is TD or FG can win. A great template is Iowa vs UM 2016.
A home game for PSU is a great advantage. Use the emotion and intimidate the young Michigan QB. He starts pressing and the game becomes a rock fight. PSU has an elite defense. They just have to make sure they do not overreact to last years counters and be ready for the counter to the counter. Last year it was the McCarthy keeper.
A home game for PSU is a great advantage. Use the emotion and intimidate the young Michigan QB. He starts pressing and the game becomes a rock fight. PSU has an elite defense. They just have to make sure they do not overreact to last years counters and be ready for the counter to the counter. Last year it was the McCarthy keeper.
Penn State needs to be creative in the gameplan, not necessarily taking big risks or airing it out as you say but can't go into a shell. A vanilla, conservative game plan plays right into Michigan's hands and is a recipe for a loss.
PSU should try to run it but we will never just be able to pound it down their throats all day. Other dimensions of the offense must work and be utilized when not expected.
Of course, rely on the defense to hopefully get a turnover but to try to just hope the defense wins it for us with a conservative offense with no creativity is a losing strategy.
Why should we play close to the vest? Open the damn playbook up do things that will catch them off guard you people act like your scared of them
I'm sure JF and staff have viewed UM/TCU game which was mind boggling when you consider the talent of TCU compared to "PSU." TCU, with a walk-on RB had 264 yards rushing vs UM, 2 int, and 3 sacks. We had only 112 yards rushing vs UM, 74 of which came from Clifford, our leading rusher for the game. Singleton and Allen combined has a total of "35 yards" rushing which is pathetic for some consider the best pair of RB's in the country.
If TCU can put up those kind of rushing numbers, with a walk-on RB, what does it say about our OL run blocking. They better figure something out with this OL in the next two days or we will have to just figure on loosing another one to UM.
Please don't start out with Singleton attempting to run between Wormley/Wallace for no gain. If so, it will be a long and disappointing day. If we can't run block as good as TCU, we are in for another 3rd place in the Big 10.
If TCU can put up those kind of rushing numbers, with a walk-on RB, what does it say about our OL run blocking. They better figure something out with this OL in the next two days or we will have to just figure on loosing another one to UM.
Please don't start out with Singleton attempting to run between Wormley/Wallace for no gain. If so, it will be a long and disappointing day. If we can't run block as good as TCU, we are in for another 3rd place in the Big 10.
Remember the game in 2016 in which Penn State was down 28 early in the 3rd quarter and Franklin opted to kick a field goal on a 4th and goal from the 4 yard line? Franklin doesn't want to be embarrassed.
I thought before the season that we had a better chance to beat Michigan than OSU. Perfect spot for us. Blowout embarrassing loss last season. The defense remembers that. Home field means a lot especially for a young qb like Allar. I think the OSU game will inevitably help us vs Michigan. I think we can win if we stick to who we are. Getting away from the run vs OSU was a mistake. Not bringing the 3 back backfield in at all was a mistake. Just a couple 3rd down conversions to extend drives could’ve changed that game drastically. Franklin’s teams have generally improved throughout a season and play their best late. I think everything lines up for a win. Home field, the bad loss last year, the disappointing OSU loss, the distractions at Michigan.. PSU and Franklin get their signature win in a close hard fought 31-27 kind of game.
TCU changed their signs and used fake signs to throw scUM off. It worked like a charm.
lol, that wasn't the reason. TCU played well, we did not. Toss in the refs missing a TD, and there was your game.
Kind of like all the Rose Bowls you guys lost. Pretty amazing you could never win, you gotta couple like when a broken clock is right twice. The Pac 10 could have thrown anyone out there and got the W over Meeeshigan.
Thank goodness for your sake, our poor Rose Bowl record cancels out our record head to head vs Penn State.
When you don’t know the opponents signs, or think you do but actually don’t, you tend to not play well.
Get your head out of your ass hole! The reason Michigan lost to TCU besides not having the correct play signals is because they're college football's (all time) post season losers at 21-31 in bowls and playoffs. Michigan has won 1/2 of a national championship since 1948 (75 years). They routinely got their asses handed them by USC and the Pac10 in the Rose Bowl too. Come back with your arrogance when you having a winning post season record and drink heavy on Saturday!
For most of the history of college football the post season hasn't been meaningful aside from 1-3 games. Focus on playoff outcomes.
I don't think games from decades past have any impact on this game. Counting coup on other teams past failures from the 70ties is not useful. Back to reality when I say don't take risks, it does not mean do not be creative. Football is about innovation. mgoblog did a great podcast on a single play in the UM<>Purdue game. They showed how UM tweaked a MESH play to get a big win. All signgate aside, their point is every opposing defense knows that a mesh play is coming from formation alone. Mesh is popular in college because its hard to stop with college athletes. You don't need to intercept the signs to know what is coming and what to do. UM added one little wrinkle which was to put a guy in motion and reverse back. Purdue was playing man and the guy assigned to the motion overreacted by a step and it was easy pitch and catch. I am all in on PSU taking every base play and putting wrinkles. I would expect every team to do this.
Where I disagree is a game plan of high risks. This version of PSU does not have the plethora of great receivers who will go and make plays. It is also well known from advanced metrics that Drew Allar has accuracy issues, especially when not allowed to set his feet. The weakness of the PSU Oline is the interior. The strength of the UM D-line is the interior. My take is don't put Allar in positions to fail, because he will. Do a bunch of innovative things in his wheelhouse, I am all for that. Perhaps more designed draws where he can use his power to grind some yards in the running game. Throw more to the RB's. Pass to run. Throw deep, that might be an interception.
Where I disagree is a game plan of high risks. This version of PSU does not have the plethora of great receivers who will go and make plays. It is also well known from advanced metrics that Drew Allar has accuracy issues, especially when not allowed to set his feet. The weakness of the PSU Oline is the interior. The strength of the UM D-line is the interior. My take is don't put Allar in positions to fail, because he will. Do a bunch of innovative things in his wheelhouse, I am all for that. Perhaps more designed draws where he can use his power to grind some yards in the running game. Throw more to the RB's. Pass to run. Throw deep, that might be an interception.
i'll give you your post game talking points....allar sucks, wish we had cliff back....james sucks, can't win a game that matters...james sucks, why did he kick a FG down by 21...did i miss any?
"Iowa out" means you don't score points but you still have to sustain drives and convert some 3rd downs so that you can play a field position game. Otherwise your defense just gets ground down to nothing by halftime. PSU couldn't do that against Ohio State and unless they're about to unveil an all-B1G caliber receiver that we didn't know about, the result will be the same on Sat.
The game might have been different if that sack/fumble/TD had held up.
My heart is PSU/But my wallet would go UM.
PSU needs to reverse some substantial bad trends (Big Game James) and get a breakout performance from Allar.
Our D was gashed last year badly, assume UM will try and use pur likely aggressiveness against us with misdirection testing our discipline which lacked last year.
We can win- same as the OSU game.
Hopefully we will.
Pivotal game for our program.
PSU needs to reverse some substantial bad trends (Big Game James) and get a breakout performance from Allar.
Our D was gashed last year badly, assume UM will try and use pur likely aggressiveness against us with misdirection testing our discipline which lacked last year.
We can win- same as the OSU game.
Hopefully we will.
Pivotal game for our program.
Well, I have no idea now. The B1G, UM and NCAA have created a three ring circus that is a huge distraction to everyone including both teams.
Agreed I think it benefits Michigan though. They're buying into this "we're unfairly being attacked" storyline. They're also the best offense we've seen by a good margin this year.
Hopefully we're successful pounding the ball with Allen and create some turnovers.
If Michigan was overlooking us at all thats gone now.
I concur. PSU has an outstanding defense that can win on turnovers alone. That OSU game would have been entirely different if that fumble return for TD had been called back because of holding. PSU needs a great game from the linebackers who have not been the same as previous years past. UM loves 12-formation sets. Those TE's running the seams will be the job of the LB'ers.
And I'll give you yours:
1)It isn't ANYBODY'S fault EXCEPT Connor Stalions.
2)This rush to judgement isn't fair!
3)We should still be able to play until every little nuanced detail is figured out so that Jimmah wins our deserved Natty before he moves up (again) because he is SUCH AN AMAZING example of a TRUE Michigan Man!
OR- what the rest of America thinks:
1) Stalions ran a gig that everyone should've known was just too good to be true. Intelligent football lifers knew or should have known that his success rate was improbable. But, since it allowed our Maize and Blue to turn the corner from a team with top 5 Star talent, yet perennial 8-4/9-3 seasons we were accepting of this Boy Wonder and his Marine insight. Just like Blake Corum is "shocked" that he has a Wyoming business license with Conor....unless Stalions is completely nuts (which could be) then there is much BS involved with THE ROUGE ASSISTANT play
2) Tell us about rushes to judgement. No pity for UM.
3) If the NCAA had 1/2 of a nut left, they'd void every UM win from the day they have evidence that Stalions pre-filmed (which they do). They'd also hit them with an SMU form of Death Penalty (or at LEAST the PSU hit) because regardless of what others may be doing- nobody else has been caught (except Jeff Lebby from Baylor pre-scouting OU).
UM has NEVER DENIED that there is cheating going on. Jimmah is in charge. Jimmah has a few things on the fire right now that are crooked. Jimmah was either too naive or willing accepting of a Wonder Boy with no football coaching experience all of a sudden becoming an integral part of his game day coaching chain of command.
Harbaugh is a boogy eating, lying, opportunist who deserves everything coming his way. And yes- he is still a GREAT example of a TRUE Michigan MAN! Which is really unfair to your alumni base- as all of us who have been accused of being pedophiles understand. As a GREAT man once said: "If you lay (lie?) with dogs, you get fleas." Jimmah is unethical at the very least and deserving of sanctions.
Good Luck- today you will lose either way as your brand gets flushed down the toilet.
Yea but win or lose PSU won’t have to talk about why their coach cheated the sport. I know having zero integrity about the sport means nothing to you. By the way, I do agree that PSU should not win. If they somehow do, you can add it to the long list of Michigan bad losses.
So this aged pretty well. Just call me Nostradamus. Admittedly I did think Michigan would actually have to attempt a pass in the last 22 minutes and actually thought they would have a passing TD. Their screen almost went the distance. My final score was almost dead on.
Now, why did I not bet everything for Michigan to cover? Dumb.
