Not good, Kainoa Winston to Michigan

[rrdd2021]

Jeremiah Smith reportedly got less NIL money from OSU than other schools that were after him (FSU and Miami). One of their 5* WR recruits from last year's class told a reporter that OSU wasn't offering him as much in NIL as the southern schools, but he valued his future NFL draft stock more.

The lesson here is that coaching makes all the difference. We can make ourselves feel better by suggesting that OSU just buys everybody and Michigan just cheats. But at the end of the day, those programs have outcoached us.

(if it was simply a matter of NIL money and recruiting rankings, then OSU's OL play should have been much better than what it was. That's coaching, too)

That's the thing many fans are overlooking. I read an article awhile back that pointed out that the top NFL producing schools - like Alabama, OSU, Georgia etc... - don't have to shell out the money and point to the end result to recruits which is basically getting them to the NFL where the huge money is at.

I travel all of the boards and a perfect example are the Auburn sites-fans that are constantly harping that Alabama are buying recruits, Uh no, they don't have to as they point to their NFL success. I believe they currently have the most NFL players and - if I remember correctly - OSU is 2nd. If anyone has to shell out huge money for recruits, it's schools like Auburn but don't try to convince some of their blockhead fans that

 

[LandoComando]

Hey, those teams might have equal or better returning production! Lol (I didn't look, not looking 😅)

They probably do lol but they don't have kids that were higher rated coming our of high school which apparently is all that matters

 

[ryoder1]

But those that actually do get balls thrown their way become 1st round draft picks. Hartline has already produced 5 of them, and he probably has 3 more on his roster right now. And that doesn't even include guys like Terry McLaurin.

A few years ago, they had three dudes nearly get 1,000 yards in the same season.

If you're a stud WR recruit, it's pretty obvious why OSU is the top program in the country right now.

Stud linemen and secondary guys went to Saban for years. Even if other 5* studs at their same position were committed in their same class. The best want to play with the best.

Nobody should have the expectation that we produce at that level. But as was already said, this year will be crucial for our WR development. It's an enormous glaring weakness that we have to address.

Before you anoint OSU the title this year because of their WR group don't forget their QB position is iffy and no better than ours at this point. The most important position on the field, by the way. It will take an "A" effort from them to escape Eugene unscathed.

 

[rrdd2021]

Before you anoint OSU the title this year because of their WR group don't forget their QB position is iffy and no better than ours at this point. The most important position on the field, by the way. It will take an "A" effort from them to escape Eugene unscathed.

Don't leave out Oregon. They play OSU at home this year and that's one I won't miss. Both have constantly been in every top 5 national poll so far

 

[RickinDayton]

Before you anoint OSU the title this year because of their WR group don't forget their QB position is iffy and no better than ours at this point. The most important position on the field, by the way. It will take an "A" effort from them to escape Eugene unscathed.

I would like to disagree about OSU's QB situation. Howard last year was a better all-around QB @ KSU than Allar was. Howard is a more adept runner than Allar. If Allar can shake off the big game freeze up, then PSU is better, if not, it's OSU. OSU's primary concern on offense is their OL. Howard has alot of experience and has performed better than Allar in big games.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

I would like to disagree about OSU's QB situation. Howard last year was a better all-around QB @ KSU than Allar was. Howard is a more adept runner than Allar. If Allar can shake off the big game freeze up, then PSU is better, if not, it's OSU. OSU's primary concern on offense is their OL. Howard has alot of experience and has performed better than Allar in big games.

And Will Howard never had the offensive weapons that OSU will give him.

I don't think he's a sure thing for OSU, but he's in a better position coming into the fall than Allar is.

OSU's title hopes will rest on their OL. Until I see them dominate people in the trenches, I'll be skeptical. Then again, maybe they won't need to if their defense is lights out and their WRs/RBs do their thing. Who knows.

I'm picking UGA to win the title this year, so I'm certainly not anointing OSU. I'd go UGA, OSU, Oregon, Texas in that order.

 

[lazydave841]

top NFL producing schools - like Alabama, OSU, Georgia etc... - don't have to shell out the money and point to the end result to recruits which is basically getting them to the NFL where the huge money is

Then why does OSU have $23 million at its disposal for NIL? I get the NFL success, but they offer big NIL AND NFL draft success. So does the other 2.

We have to beat them somewhere to be relevant. Michigan has 3 wins in a row and still can't outrecruit them nor offer more money. They are machines. It's reality.

 

[NOVABuck45]

Then why does OSU have $23 million at its disposal for NIL? I get the NFL success, but they offer big NIL AND NFL draft success. So does the other 2.

We have to beat them somewhere to be relevant. Michigan has 3 wins in a row and still can't outrecruit them nor offer more money. They are machines. It's reality.

We use our NIL primarily for retention, not for recruiting. Granted, if kids know that they'll get paid handsomely once in school, that will impact the recruiting process. But we aren't dishing out the enormous sums to HS kids the way some of the SEC schools are. We spend our money on proven commodities.

It was Brandon Inniss who said that he took a lower NIL payday to come to Ohio State, because of the Brian Hartline factor. The Florida schools have recruited plenty of big-time WR prospects. Compare their college/NFL success to Hartline's WRs, and it's clear why Inniss made the choice he did.

We've lost a lot of our priority recruits over the past 2 years because of NIL. Primarily to SEC schools + Florida State/Miami. We've made progress in getting our NIL more competitive to win more of those battles, but we'll see. There's still big reluctance at Ohio State to use our NIL funds to just buy up 5* prospects. We'd rather have TreVeyon Henderson or Denzel Burke for a fourth year than some 5* DL prospect with a $2mil asking price.

 

[rrdd2021]

Then why does OSU have $23 million at its disposal for NIL? I get the NFL success, but they offer big NIL AND NFL draft success. So does the other 2.

We have to beat them somewhere to be relevant. Michigan has 3 wins in a row and still can't outrecruit them nor offer more money. They are machines. It's reality.

I don't know what those 3 - OSU, Georgia, and Alabama - have in NIL money.....most don''t as figures are made up to suit different fan bases. My only point is that they don't have to offer the crazy amounts as they can use the NFL stuff and their on-field success to their advantage. And I think most of OSU's NIL money goes to players already on their roster

And the difference between OSU and Michigan is consistency, Yes, Michigan has beat them 3 in a row but they've also had some really down years this century. OSU? They haven't had more than 2 losses since around 2010 or 2011 and only 2 losing seasons since the mid 1960s. They're ALWAYS really good

 

[ryoder1]

I would like to disagree about OSU's QB situation. Howard last year was a better all-around QB @ KSU than Allar was. Howard is a more adept runner than Allar. If Allar can shake off the big game freeze up, then PSU is better, if not, it's OSU. OSU's primary concern on offense is their OL. Howard has alot of experience and has performed better than Allar in big games.

Maybe but he is not a sure bet and not at the level of Fields and then Stroud. I am sure they wished they had a better QB. And not sure Howard would have done against B10 defenses.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Ok, we can put the NFL draft stuff to bed here. Ohio St fell off a cliff last year. They had top 3 in the nation talent and sent only 4 kids to the NFL. PSU sent 8. Michigan sent 13.

And before you try to cite 25-year-old data, Ohio St only sent 6 kids to the NFL in 2023, same as PSU despite again having top 3 in the nation talent. Michigan had 9 NFL picks in 2023.

So who is developing players? Here is the last 3 years of data in the big 10.

2024- Michigan 13, PSU 8, Ohio St 4
2023- Michigan 9, PSU 6, Ohio St 6
2022- Penn St 8, Ohio St 6, Michigan 5

You have to go back to 2021 and COVID era to get to when the top 3 in the country talent Ohio St actually sent the most to the NFL in the Big 10 - and they still only sent 6!!! PSU had as many draft picks in the last 3 years as Ohio St had in the last 4. Michigan had as many draft picks in the last 2 years as Ohio St had in the last 4.

So no, Ohio St is not developing NFL talent. Sorry. They bring in top 3 talent in recruiting every single year for a decade or more. The last 4 years they have massively underperformed in sending guys to the NFL. PSU and Michigan at best have averaged bringing in close to top 15 to 20 talent over this timeframe and have owned Ohio St in NFL picks.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Ok, we can put the NFL draft stuff to bed here. Ohio St fell off a cliff last year. They had top 3 in the nation talent and sent only 4 kids to the NFL. PSU sent 8. Michigan sent 13.

LOL. Because all their underclassmen are coming back. They're gonna have like 15 dudes in the draft next year.

You're really bad at this.

 

[NOVABuck45]

So no, Ohio St is not developing NFL talent. Sorry. They bring in top 3 talent in recruiting every single year for a decade or more. The last 4 years they have massively underperformed in sending guys to the NFL. PSU and Michigan at best have averaged bringing in close to top 15 to 20 talent over this timeframe and have owned Ohio St in NFL picks.

If you guys are owning us in NFL talent, then why aren't you winning the actual games against us?

Because you said in a separate post above that our coaching isn't as good as yours.

I'm really confused.

 

[rrdd2021]

Ok, we can put the NFL draft stuff to bed here. Ohio St fell off a cliff last year. They had top 3 in the nation talent and sent only 4 kids to the NFL. PSU sent 8. Michigan sent 13.

LOL. Because all their underclassmen are coming back. They're gonna have like 15 dudes in the draft next year.

You're really bad at this.

Yeah, I did not understand why he brought up the 4 getting drafted for OSU. That is not a good thing for the rest of the B1G as almost everyone is returning that was projected to go high in the draft. They could have had 10 to 11 players drafted last year. Probably NIL money involved. I've seen estimates that they could set records next year with 15 to 17 drafted next year.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

If you guys are owning us in NFL talent, then why aren't you winning the actual games against us?

Because you said in a separate post above that our coaching isn't as good as yours.

I'm really confused.

Yeah, he walked right into that one....and probably doesn't even realize it. Good Lord.

Let me preview the response. OSU cheated. The refs screwed us. A few lucky bounces. And so on.

I've been banging this drum for a long time that the talent gap between us and OSU is exaggerated on this board, because people only look at the recruiting rankings. They are more talented -- their dudes are bigger impact players in the NFL than our dudes. But we absolutely have the talent to win these games. Auburn has beaten Bama several times -- to use a parallel example. Yet we can't. And it's because of coaching.

Edwardo made my point for me.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

LOL. Because all their underclassmen are coming back. They're gonna have like 15 dudes in the draft next year.

You're really bad at this.

For 4 straight years? It has taken Ohio St the last 4 years to get as many draft picks as PSU has had in the last 3 and as many as Michigan has had in the last 2. That isn't a one-year thing due to guys coming back. It is a well-established trend of not developing the elite recruiting classes that they have brought in during the entire Day era.

 

[scrivener]

For 4 straight years? It has taken Ohio St the last 4 years to get as many draft picks as PSU has had in the last 3 and as many as Michigan has had in the last 2. That isn't a one-year thing due to guys coming back. It is a well-established trend of not developing the elite recruiting classes that they have brought in during the entire Day era.

Lmao...u are ridiculous. James has really churned out an NFL factory in his time at Penn state, to his credit.So where are all the big wins? Your fan boy approach is not a good look when he can't win with all the talent he has apparently had.

 

[ryoder1]

I don"t care about who gets more in the NFL or whatever. All I want is for PSU to beat OSU more than once a decade.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

If you guys are owning us in NFL talent, then why aren't you winning the actual games against us?

Because you said in a separate post above that our coaching isn't as good as yours.

I'm really confused.

2 reasons.

1) Your talent level isn't just a little better than PSU (even if you develop it poorly), it is top 3 in the nation. Only Georgia and Alabama bring in as much talent, but they actually do something with it.

So PSU develops more players of lower recruiting ranking into NFL draft picks over the last 4 years but we don't have the depth that Ohio St does because of your top 3 talent brought in every year for over a decade.

2) You get the game changing calls at critical moments of the game. Like last year when our defense scores 6 against you and takes control of the game but a chintzy holding call of course took it off the board. Then immediately you got like 3 more calls to ensure that you scored on that drive. It was a 14 point swing. The refs probably should have just placed the ball in the end zone for you, or was that too obvious?

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Yeah, I did not understand why he brought up the 4 getting drafted for OSU. That is not a good thing for the rest of the B1G as almost everyone is returning that was projected to go high in the draft. They could have had 10 to 11 players drafted last year. Probably NIL money involved. I've seen estimates that they could set records next year with 15 to 17 drafted next year.

Ohio St would need to send 15 to 17 next year to even be on par with Michigan and PSU over that 5-year period. That's how bad Ohio St has been at converting elite talent into NFL draft picks lately.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Lmao...u are ridiculous. James has really churned out an NFL factory in his time at Penn state, to his credit.So where are all the big wins? Your fan boy approach is not a good look when he can't win with all the talent he has apparently had.

I'm not calling PSU an NFL factory. I am telling you the actual numbers of NFL draft picks by school. Michigan is winning that the last 4 years by far. Then PSU. Then Ohio St. Look at the recruiting rankings. Ohio St is massively underperforming. Over the last 4 years, it has been a very poor decision for top recruits to choose Ohio St if you go by the measure of getting drafted into the NFL. Those are the results.

 

[rrdd2021]

I've been banging this drum for a long time that the talent gap between us and OSU is exaggerated on this board, because people only look at the recruiting rankings.

This 100% and who knows what would have happened if PSU hadn't blown those two games - around 2016 and 2017 or so - when they had double digit leads late in the game?

 

[NittanyIllinois]

2 reasons.

1) Your talent level isn't just a little better than PSU (even if you develop it poorly), it is top 3 in the nation. Only Georgia and Alabama bring in as much talent, but they actually do something with it.


2) You get the game changing calls at critical moments of the game. Like last year when our defense scores 6 against you and takes control of the game but a chintzy holding call of course took it off the board. Then immediately you got like 3 more calls to ensure that you scored on that drive. It was a 14 point swing. The refs probably should have just placed the ball in the end zone for you, or was that too obvious?

On #1 -- you're saying OSU's talent level is top-3, but you just said they're sending less dudes to the NFL than us. Therefore their talent level isn't top-3.

Pick an argument and stick with it.

On #2 -- to quote Dr. Ian Malcolm from Jurassic Park....."And there it is". Blaming the refs for getting our asses dominated by them for a decade.

Nothing about coaching.

When you have failures in life (as we all do), do you instinctively look for external forces to blame? Do you ever take responsibility for yourself? Because as a sports fan, you sound ridiculous in the blame shifting.

 

[scrivener]

This 100% and who knows what would have happened if PSU hadn't blown those two games - around 2016 and 2017 or so - when they had double digit leads late in the game?

And, a huge part of that recruiting ranking for OSU is what they do annually at WR. I would think that is far and away their best and highest rated room. It's not like they blow us away at every other position in that fashion.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

And, a huge part of that recruiting ranking for OSU is what they do annually at WR. I would think that is far and away their best and highest rated room. It's not like they blow us away at every other position in that fashion.

Absolutely. Their WR and QB rankings skew their overall rankings. UGA and Bama have been more balanced. Not until this 2025 class does OSU seem to have that Bama-type balance, and that's partly because of their new DB coach who is apparently a recruiting madman. Larry Johnson is clearly slowing down, and their DC doesn't seem to recruit well.

People like Edwardo exaggerate the talent edge to suit their excuse-making. Anything to deflect blame from a coaching staff that can't win the games on their schedule that matter.

 

[scrivener]

On #1 -- you're saying OSU's talent level is top-3, but you just said they're sending less dudes to the NFL than us. Therefore their talent level isn't top-3.

Pick an argument and stick with it.

On #2 -- to quote Dr. Ian Malcolm from Jurassic Park....."And there it is". Blaming the refs for getting our asses dominated by them for a decade.

Nothing about coaching.

When you have failures in life (as we all do), do you instinctively look for external forces to blame? Do you ever take responsibility for yourself? Because as a sports fan, you sound ridiculous in the blame shifting.

LOL exactly! So if OSU isn't developing well enough by Edwardo's standards, and they still beat psu every yr, that makes his defending and bloviating of JF even worse.

 

[NOVABuck45]

On developing talent, this methodology actually ranks Ohio State among the best in the country:

Which college teams are best at preparing players for the NFL? See where your team ranks. - Formula Bot

Explore the fascinating analysis of college football teams' player development effectiveness. Discover how NFL draft rates correlate with college recruiting scores and the impact on team success.

formulabot.com

As you'll see, Penn State is even better......and I agree. You all have turned more 3*/lower 4* kids into legit players than most programs. Especially your DBs. But to say we don't develop talent is wrong. Otherwise we wouldn't win 11+ games every year.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

On #1 -- you're saying OSU's talent level is top-3, but you just said they're sending less dudes to the NFL than us. Therefore their talent level isn't top-3.

Pick an argument and stick with it.

On #2 -- to quote Dr. Ian Malcolm from Jurassic Park....."And there it is". Blaming the refs for getting our asses dominated by them for a decade.

Nothing about coaching.

When you have failures in life (as we all do), do you instinctively look for external forces to blame? Do you ever take responsibility for yourself? Because as a sports fan, you sound ridiculous in the blame shifting.

Their incoming talent is top 3 in college football and has been by every recruiting site's measure for a decade or more.

They don't develop it well, at least not in the last 4 years (since Day took over). Therefore, it takes them 4 years to produce the same amount of NFL talent as PSU in 3 or Michigan in 2 years.

Is it that hard to comprehend that some schools take lesser talent and develop them to get more NFL draft picks after 4/5 years? Do you really need me to explain that to you?

 

[rrdd2021]

LOL exactly! So if OSU isn't developing well enough by Edwardo's standards, and they still beat psu every yr, that makes his defending and bloviating of JF even worse.

This Edwardo guy is Online Personna of old. His dribble about OSU is beyond comical. You just have to take anything he posts about OSU with a grain of salt and not take it seriously

 

[RickinDayton]

Maybe but he is not a sure bet and not at the level of Fields and then Stroud. I am sure they wished they had a better QB. And not sure Howard would have done against B10 defenses.

I agree he is not @ Stroud or Fields level but with talent the around him and his escapability that well exceeds McCord, I expect he will do well.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

On developing talent, this methodology actually ranks Ohio State among the best in the country:

Which college teams are best at preparing players for the NFL? See where your team ranks. - Formula Bot

Explore the fascinating analysis of college football teams' player development effectiveness. Discover how NFL draft rates correlate with college recruiting scores and the impact on team success.

formulabot.com

As you'll see, Penn State is even better......and I agree. You all have turned more 3*/lower 4* kids into legit players than most programs. Especially your DBs. But to say we don't develop talent is wrong. Otherwise we wouldn't win 11+ games every year.

There is a major flaw in that analysis. They even show their bias in the graph below where they show you that there is a HEAVY bias towards 5 star recruits actual draft rate verses their predicted draft rate. It also holds for 4 stars. There is a bias against 3 stars and below in terms of predicting their draft rate.

Therefore, schools that have the most 5 stars and to a lesser extent the most 4 stars have a heavy bias in their predicted verses actual NFL draft rate by college. You will note that the schools that dominate recruiting the number of 5 stars fair very well in the below graph BECAUSE THEY ALREADY TOLD YOU THAT THE DATA FOR 5 STARS IS BY FAR THE MOST POSITIVELY BIASED!

Well, no $hit. These clowns are using the predicted NFL draft rate to measure the schools. But they have already told you that 5 stars are actually drafted at over a 66% higher rate than their predicted NFL draft rate = (58-34.9)/34.9. So, when they evaluate a school, every 5-star that school has recruited (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St) has a 66% positive bias in their analysis of predicted verses actual draft rate.

 

[saturdaysarebetter2]

WRONG. Maybe Michigan has outcoached us and Ohio St (some say knowing the other teams plays was a big part of that).

But Ohio St has underperformed with their talent. The only other college football teams with as much talent as (or even in the ballpark with) Ohio St for the last decade was Alabama and Georgia. Both of those programs have multiple national championships where Ohio St has none. That's coaching. And it is underperforming coaching. Even average coaching performing in line with recruiting would have produced a couple of natties for Ohio St.

They were one missed field goal of beating Georgia and playing TCU for the national championship and likely winning that game.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

They were one missed field goal of beating Georgia and playing TCU for the national championship and likely winning that game.

Yep, Ryan Day puckers up against elite competition. He has elite talent (top 3 every year for over a decade for Ohio St) but they always fall short against the big boys.

We aren't quite there talent-wise or we'd be doing what Michigan and the SEC has done to them. Truthfully, Michigan shouldn't have been able to own them either. But Day as of late is a dollar short.

 

[scrivener]

Yep, Ryan Day puckers up against elite competition. He has elite talent (top 3 every year for over a decade for Ohio St) but they always fall short against the big boys.

We aren't quite there talent-wise or we'd be doing what Michigan and the SEC has done to them. Truthfully, Michigan shouldn't have been able to own them either. But Day as of late is a dollar short.

Big talk against Day considering your boy, JF, is one wrong bounce on the blocked FG in 2016, from possibly not even being employed at PSU.

 

[LandoComando]

Day is a better coach than Franklin currently. Hopefully that changes but one can't defend Franklin yet criticize Day at the same time. It's illogical.

Day is on the hot seat because Ohio State demands perfection. If we demanded even consistency Franklin would have been gone after 2021.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Looks like the Ohio St fanboys don't like it posted what everyone already knows, Day is underperforming.

1) He puckers up against elite competition
2) With top 3 talent every year for a decade, Alabama and Georgia have several national championships. Ohio St has been shut out for a decade with the same talent.
3) In the last 4 years, the buckeyes have had as many NFL draft picks as the Nittany Lions have had in only 3 years and as Michigan has had in only 2 years.

These are just a few of the measures of Day's underperformance.

 

[scrivener]

Looks like the Ohio St fanboys don't like it posted what everyone already knows, Day is underperforming.

1) He puckers up against elite competition
2) With top 3 talent every year for a decade, Alabama and Georgia have several national championships. Ohio St has been shut out for a decade with the same talent.
3) In the last 4 years, the buckeyes have had as many NFL draft picks as the Nittany Lions have had in only 3 years and as Michigan has had in only 2 years.

These are just a few of the measures of Day's underperformance.

I just don't understand your infatuation with criticizing vehemently other coaches and programs that are better and have proven more in the last decade than Penn State.. between this and your demonstrative take with Abdul Carter and the tow truck incident, have a little bit of self-awareness about Penn state's program assuming you're even an alum. When posters like you who literally have no balance or objectivity continue to expose yourself, it's not a good look for what it's worth.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I just don't understand your infatuation with criticizing vehemently other coaches and programs that are better and have proven more in the last decade than Penn State.. between this and your demonstrative take with Abdul Carter and the tow truck incident, have a little bit of self-awareness about Penn state's program assuming you're even an alum. When posters like you who literally have no balance or objectivity continue to expose yourself, it's not a good look for what it's worth.

So you do not like those facts about Ryan Day and his underperformance. Noted.

 

[scrivener]

So you do not like those facts about Ryan Day and his underperformance. Noted.

My point is made because you totally have no self-awareness.. and you stated opinions not facts. You can curtail Ryan's wins and losses to create an opinion on that but that's all it is. I think you're obsession about some of the topics that are on these message boards is pretty creepy to be honest. James would gladly trade his resume for Ryan's right now.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

So you do not like those facts about Ryan Day and his underperformance. Noted.

Ryan Day is 5-0 against James Franklin.

Franklin = still not elite.