Rant alert:
PIAA really should fix its seeding system -- it's antiquated and gives poor results. It screws up both the winners' bracket and consis, and every year some kids will be screwed out of placing. Which means PIAA won't, but whatever.
Current system is to score each regional champ on 2 categories, each max 100 pts:
- Current year Win %
- "Prestige Points" for last year's postseason: S1 = 100, S2 = 95, ... , S8 = 65, R1 = 60, R2 = 55 ... etc. down to Districts placement.
(This same system is used at Regionals, Districts, and Sectionals, but let's f9cus on states.)
The issues are obvious:
- All opponents are equal.
- Incentive for cupcake schedules, against facing better opponents.
- H2H doesn't matter.
- Last year is in the past, should not be a primary driver for this year.
- Wrestlers who missed last postseason get zero Prestige Points and thus the lowest seeds regardless of current results. This means all freshmen, last year's transfers, and anyone who got hurt last year.
Some examples of this system going wrong this year:
- All of the McCort guys will be seeded 4th unless other regional champs also missed the 2023 postseason. Forrest, Bassett, Gibson, Miller, Magro ... all of them.
- AAA 114: Sidun is the clear favorite and has beaten multiple returning state/prep champs. But he's a FR, so he'll be the 4 or 5 seed.
- AA 121 has 3 returning champs: Seidel (2x), Botero, and Gill. Gill will get the 4 seed since he was ineligible for last postseason due to transferring. Seidel and Botero are in the same regional -- the winner gets the 1 seed and Gill in the semis. Not that either would, but this is an obvious incentive to FFT the regional final.
- AAA 139: Weiss is an undefeated returning S2 who beat a state champ at regionals. And he'll be the 5 seed because he missed weight last year.
- AAA 160: Asher and Kunstek are 1-2 in the state. They will be separated at states only because Garvick is the highest returning placer, and because Pottsville resident Kunstek was ineligible last year for transferring from Blair to Pottsville (thus will be the 5 seed). Also, Myers will be seeded below Garvick despite a better record and H2H win, because of last year.
- AA 189: state #1 Garcia will be the 4 seed because he was injured last year. Nobody else at the weight has ever finished higher than 4th.
A far better system would be scoring based on quality wins. "Quality" based upon opponents' postseason placement THIS year (though I could see a marginal bonus for beating a returning medalist). Also H2H used to adjust seeds +/- 1 spot. Easy to implement with 20th Century technology such as Excel.
To be clear: IMO the pre-drawn brackets should work reasonably well if seeding gets corrected. It rewards regional champs for winning regionals, and separating regional finalists is a good thing. Occasionally a semis-level match will happen in the quarters, but that should have little impact on the rest of the bracket and seems like a least-bad outcome. BUT again, if seeding gets corrected.