Palm's Update Bowl Projections

LandoComando

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Going to be interesting how it plays out...
Georgia vs. USC
Ohio State vs. TCU
Should stand unless one of the lose

Oregon vs. Michigan is obvious for the Rose
Sugar has to take Big XII vs SEC so LSU vs Kansas State (smh)
Orange has to take the ACC champ--so Clemson vs. Bama (makes sense they'd want Bama over us)
Cotton--he has Tennessee vs. Cincinnati....which means the final spot would be Penn State or Tennessee. If Hooker's out I think we go.

Citrus is Penn State vs. Ole Miss

Ideally TCU drops a game and the Big Ten gets two teams in the playoff if you want a NY6 game
 

The Spin Meister

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An altered state
If the Orange BC is smart they would PSU over ‘bama. It’s just a short drive from ‘bama so a lot will just drive over on game day and spend just one night. Or even have one sober guy drive back right after the game. PSU fans will send several days there filling motels, bars, restaurants, aNd more. Bowls are big business and is the reason most were started.

PSU fans will flock to the warm Florida sunshine sunshine.......Alabama fans not so much.

PSU hasn’t been to a decent bowl in a couple years and will be excited. For ‘bama fans the Orange will be a dissapointment since it isn’t the playoffs

From a TV point of view, Clemson and Alabama have played each other several times in the recent playoffs. Boring! Time for a new matchup between us and Clemson.
 

LandoComando

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If the Orange BC is smart they would PSU over ‘bama. It’s just a short drive from ‘bama so a lot will just drive over on game day and spend just one night. Or even have one sober guy drive back right after the game. PSU fans will send several days there filling motels, bars, restaurants, aNd more. Bowls are big business and is the reason most were started.

PSU fans will flock to the warm Florida sunshine sunshine.......Alabama fans not so much.

PSU hasn’t been to a decent bowl in a couple years and will be excited. For ‘bama fans the Orange will be a dissapointment since it isn’t the playoffs

From a TV point of view, Clemson and Alabama have played each other several times in the recent playoffs. Boring! Time for a new matchup between us and Clemson.
I agree with your logic aside the the TV part. Clemson-Alabama (or UNC-Bama if UNC beats them) is probably the bigger national draw because it's Clemson-Bama. The rest I agree 100%
 

Jerry

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It'd be nice to get the NY6 bid, and it's still a possibility, but there looks to be too much traffic in front of us.

Tennessee has now dropped back into the mix and probably has a better shot at the Cotton Bowl than we do. (Lando, Hooker's status won't affect the committee's ranking of Tennessee.)

Rose is still out there, but if the top teams play to form the rest of the way -- figure the odds -- can't see any way Michigan gets a playoff bid over USC, regardless of how close the game in Columbus is.

But hey, 10-2 record, top-10 finish, Citrus Bowl matchup against Mississippi...what's not to like. Meanwhile, fingers still crossed on NY6.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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Going to be interesting how it plays out...
Georgia vs. USC
Ohio State vs. TCU
Should stand unless one of the lose

Oregon vs. Michigan is obvious for the Rose
Sugar has to take Big XII vs SEC so LSU vs Kansas State (smh)
Orange has to take the ACC champ--so Clemson vs. Bama (makes sense they'd want Bama over us)
Cotton--he has Tennessee vs. Cincinnati....which means the final spot would be Penn State or Tennessee. If Hooker's out I think we go.

Citrus is Penn State vs. Ole Miss

Ideally TCU drops a game and the Big Ten gets two teams in the playoff if you want a NY6 game

Again, you misstate the Sugar Selection Process.... The Sugar is not obligated to take the SEC CCG loser - they are obligated to take the highest ranked SEC team in the Final CFP Rankings that is not selected for the 4-Team CFP Invitational Tournament. That team will likely be Alabama, not LSU (LSU will have at least 3 losses at the time of the Final CFP Rankings and LSU has been losing ground to both USC and Bama, who are directly behind them, the last couple weeks in the polls.).

Last week you were telling me how you, and Palm, agreed that USC would never jump LSU..... blah, blah, blah..... Now we're projecting USC to jump LSU prior to Conference CCG (as one of the pillars of your earlier argument was that LSU's ranking would be unaffected by a SEC CCG loss.... and the SEC CCG "did not count" regarding LSU's ranking.... blah, blah, blah.......).
 

LandoComando

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Again, you misstate the Sugar Selection Process.... The Sugar is not obligated to take the SEC CCG loser - they are obligated to take the highest ranked SEC team in the Final CFP Rankings that is not selected for the 4-Team CFP Invitational Tournament. That team will likely be Alabama, not LSU (LSU will have at least 3 losses at the time of the Final CFP Rankings and LSU has been losing ground to both USC and Bama, who are directly behind them, the last couple weeks in the polls.).

Last week you were telling me how you, and Palm, agreed that USC would never jump LSU..... blah, blah, blah..... Now we're projecting USC to jump LSU prior to Conference CCG (as one of the pillars of your earlier argument was that LSU's ranking would be unaffected by a SEC CCG loss.... and the SEC CCG "did not count" regarding LSU's ranking.... blah, blah, blah.......).
I didn't say they take the SECCG loser. I'm saying they take 10-3 LSU
I said if LSU wins out they go. Which they will. USC would then be behind them. This isn't having LSU win out
You honestly are dumbest human being on the face of the Earth. You can't follow anything. At all. I hope you aren't allowed near any sharp objects.
 

The Spin Meister

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An altered state
I agree with your logic aside the the TV part. Clemson-Alabama (or UNC-Bama if UNC beats them) is probably the bigger national draw because it's Clemson-Bama. The rest I agree 100%
Penn State always has solid national ratings on broadcasts. Having Penn State gets the huge northeast market, ‘bama gets the south. But Clemson also gets much of the southern. And since people are tired of seeing ‘bama all the time in the playoffs even the west coast would rather see a different team......IMO....obviously.
 
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LandoComando

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Penn State always has solid national ratings on broadcasts. Having Penn State gets the huge northeast market, ‘bama gets the south. But Clemson also gets much of the southern. And since people are tired of seeing ‘bama all the time in the playoffs even the west coast would rather see a different team......IMO....obviously.
Maybe--it's an interesting argument. I think Bama in general is a bigger sell nationally. Penn State-Clemson is fine with me I just think they'd go Bama.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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I didn't say they take the SECCG loser. I'm saying they take 10-3 LSU
I said if LSU wins out they go. Which they will. USC would then be behind them. This isn't having LSU win out
You honestly are dumbest human being on the face of the Earth. You can't follow anything. At all. I hope you aren't allowed near any sharp objects.

No lying dumbass, you said that it didn't matter whether LSU loses in the SEC CCG regarding their ranking - and their ranking would not change even if the lost they SEC CCG.... and you said it multiple times in multiple posts liar (you said this when you were attempting repeatedly to argue that PSU would be locked out of a NY6 Bowl game.... you argued LSU's Ranking would be locked in cement prior to SEC CCG ahead of both USC and Bama [as I said they would likely drop behind both USC and Bama when they lose their 3rd game]..... you repeatedly argued their ranking would not change regardless of SEC CCG result liar.... now you're changing your tune yet again to suit your latest scenario liar - go figure! LMAO, you're so f'ing lame.).
 

doctornick

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IIRC the non playoff bowls are filled by the CFP rankings. So the Orange takes the highest ranked SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame team after the CFP and Sugar and Rose. And the Cotton will take the highest ranked team remaining vs highest ranked non Power 6 team. I don’t think the bowls themselves get to choose per se.

That being said, if I were the Orange Bowl I wouldn’t particularly want to have a Clemson/Bama game - TV ratings would be solid but the enthusiasm would be small among those fanbases to actually attend for that matchup and given missing out on the CFP. I’d much rather grab PSU or Tennessee given the option.
 

LandoComando

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No lying dumbass, you said that it didn't matter whether LSU loses in the SEC CCG regarding their ranking - and their ranking would not change even if the lost they SEC CCG.... and you said it multiple times in multiple posts liar (you said this when you were attempting repeatedly to argue that PSU would be locked out of a NY6 Bowl game.... you argued LSU's Ranking would be locked in cement prior to SEC CCG ahead of both USC and Bama [as I said they would likely drop behind both USC and Bama when they lose their 3rd game]..... you repeatedly argued their ranking would not change regardless of SEC CCG result liar.... now you're changing your tune yet again to suit your latest scenario liar - go figure! LMAO, you're so f'ing lame.).
What are you talking about
LSU is going to the Sugar if they lose but it has nothing to do with being in the SECCG--nothing
You don't even understand what you're saying. You don't understand college football. You're clearly a "Penn State fan that hates college football"
 

doctornick

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If the Orange BC is smart they would PSU over ‘bama. It’s just a short drive from ‘bama so a lot will just drive over on game day and spend just one night. Or even have one sober guy drive back right after the game. PSU fans will send several days there filling motels, bars, restaurants, aNd more. Bowls are big business and is the reason most were started.
You realize the Orange Bowl is in Miami, right? It’s no where near the state of Alabama - it’s like a 12 hour drive from Tuscaloosa.
 

LandoComando

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Here's what will happen with LSU assuming they beat A&M (if they don't then they won't be a NY6 bowl unless they beat Georgia earning an auto spot)

LSU beats Georgia
LSU is either in the playoff or the Sugar

Georgia beat LSU
LSU is in the Sugar at 10-3 and ranked above Tennessee and Bama. Neither of those teams at 10-2 will jump LSU for losing to Georgia.
 

doctornick

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What are you talking about
LSU is going to the Sugar if they lose but it has nothing to do with being in the SECCG--nothing
You don't even understand what you're saying. You don't understand college football. You're clearly a "Penn State fan that hates college football"
From what I have read, the Sugar takes the highest ranked SEC team if the champion goes to the CFP (different bowls/conferences have different rules). That would almost certainly be Bama (not LSU) if games play out as expected. LSU is only going to the Sugar if they beat Georgia.
 

LandoComando

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From what I have read, the Sugar takes the highest ranked SEC team if the champion goes to the CFP (different bowls/conferences have different rules). That would almost certainly be Bama (not LSU) if games play out as expected. LSU is only going to the Sugar if they beat Georgia.
Bama's not jumping LSU if LSU falls to Georgia. There's no way. If I'm wrong I'll own it but literally all the experts have LSU staying ahead of Bama in those scenarios right now.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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What are you talking about
LSU is going to the Sugar if they lose but it has nothing to do with being in the SECCG--nothing
You don't even understand what you're saying. You don't understand college football. You're clearly a "Penn State fan that hates college football"

Listen liar - you stated repeatedly, in post-after-post that neither Bama or USC would jump LSU and LSU's ranking would not change even if they lost the SEC CCG (i.e., they were going to Sugar - not Bama - even if they lost CCG because they would be highest ranked SEC team not in CFP Invitational.... as you projected Tenn and UGa to CFP Invitational LSU ranked 6th behind duhO$U/scUM loser then USC, Bama....). Now you're changing your tune and USC will jump LSU..... blah, blah, blah.....

Keep up the good work Always-Wrong a-hole.
 

LandoComando

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Listen liar - you stated repeatedly, in post-after-post that neither Bama or USC would jump USC and LSU's ranking would not change even if they lost the SEC CCG (i.e., they were going to Sugar - not Bama - even if they lost CCG because they would be highest ranked SEC team not in CFP Invitational.... as you projected Tenn and UGa to CFP Invitational LSU ranked 6th behind duhO$U/scUM loser then USC, Bama....). Now you're changing your tune and USC will jump LSU..... blah, blah, blah.....

Keep up the good work Always-Wrong a-hole.
Where is the USC part coming from and Bama won't jump LSU
LSU at 11-2 goes over 12-1 USC
Tennessee lost a game they shouldn't have which is why the projections change
Why is this complicated for you? Were you special ed classes?
 

fastlax16

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Outside of the playoff, ny6 spots are filled based on highest ranking (within the confines of the conference obligations when applicable).

Reputation, tv ratings etc do not come into play.
 

LandoComando

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Barring these teams losing a game other than LSU to Georgia does Penn State potentially jump any of these teams in the rankings....

Tennessee
Alabama
LSU

If your answer is no with Tennessee losing yesterday we're probably out of a NY6 game UNLESS we go to the Rose or Tennessee falls to Vandy without Hooker
 

lazydave841

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those scenarios right now

The right now doesn't include a potential LSU loss though. It's based upon LSU being above both today.

Tennessee is out now. Blown out by South Carolina this late erases their win weeks ago.

Bama will get the benefit of the doubt if they are within one ranking spot of LSU AND UGA beats LSU by 10+.
 

LandoComando

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The right now doesn't include a potential LSU loss though. It's based upon LSU being above both today.

Tennessee is out now. Blown out by South Carolina this late erases their win weeks ago.

Bama will get the benefit of the doubt if they are within one ranking spot of LSU AND UGA beats LSU by 10+.
Yeah, they do consider LSU losing which is why Michigan isn't in right now
LSU won't drop behind Bama even if Georgia wins by 40
Tennessee is out of the playoff but are you saying they drop below Bama Oregon or Penn State in the pool? I don't see that at all.
 

LandoComando

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The only way Tennessee free falls out of the top 10 is if it comes out Hooker is out for the year
 

lazydave841

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Yeah, they do consider LSU losing which is why Michigan isn't in right now
LSU won't drop behind Bama even if Georgia wins by 40
Tennessee is out of the playoff but are you saying they drop below Bama Oregon or Penn State in the pool? I don't see that at all.

I have no clue about Penn State in this discussion.

I'm merely saying that I think Tennessee is shuttled down the pecking order because as much as h2h matters, losing late in blow out fashion hurts more than close wins.

Currently, LSU, Bama, and UT are the pecking order for that group and I think Bama shifts up over a 3 loss LSU. I could be wrong, but it's my projection.

PSU bowl game is strictly in the hands of others.

I also think we see 3 and 3 in the playoff and NY6. I don't think they go 4 and 2 (sec and Big 10).
 

LandoComando

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I have no clue about Penn State in this discussion.

I'm merely saying that I think Tennessee is shuttled down the pecking order because as much as h2h matters, losing late in blow out fashion hurts more than close wins.

Currently, LSU, Bama, and UT are the pecking order for that group and I think Bama shifts up over a 3 loss LSU. I could be wrong, but it's my projection.

PSU bowl game is strictly in the hands of others.

I also think we see 3 and 3 in the playoff and NY6. I don't think they go 4 and 2 (sec and Big 10).
Fair enough...I can't see LSU with their resume which includes beating Bama falling behind them by playing a 13th game
 

doctornick

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Outside of the playoff, ny6 spots are filled based on highest ranking (within the confines of the conference obligations when applicable).

Reputation, tv ratings etc do not come into play.
I don’t think that’s entirely true for some of the conference tie in slots (it does for any at large ones). I read for example that the Big 12 has a specific tie breaker for other teams to decide who goes to the Sugar if the champ goes to the playoffs.

For the purposes of where PSU goes that, yes that’s the key feature so it would be instructive as to where we are ranked come Tuesday.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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The only way Tennessee free falls out of the top 10 is if it comes out Hooker is out for the year

"Free falling"??? WTF are you talking about now dumbass? In the last CFP Rankings Tenn was #5 - it wouldn't be unusual or unprecedented at all for Tenn to drop 6 spots after getting blowout (not just losing) by an UNRANKED 4-loss team -- Oregon dropped 6 spots last week for losing a very tight game to #13 Utah (who is currently #10). You're "takes" are so consistently hyperbolically inane, it isn't even funny.
 

lazydave841

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Right but Bama doesn't have the resume this year--especially with Ole Miss fading. Texas winning out would have helped them but that game last week hurt them.

If the Bama resume sucks, why does beating them matter for others? Essentially, it's false credit for an SEC agenda. Their teams start higher, they drop slower, and if you come from outside the rankings you climb quicker.

Same thing has happened with the PAC 12. Are any of them really any better than 10th? Here sits USC about to fall into the playoff backwards. Unless USC beats ND, the conference will have lost every meaningful OOC game minus Washington over Sparty, who needs to beat us to make the playoff.
 

LandoComando

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"Free falling"??? WTF are you talking about now dumbass? In the last CFP Rankings Tenn was #5 - it wouldn't be unusual or unprecedented at all for Tenn to drop 6 spots after getting blowout (not just losing) by an UNRANKED 4-loss team -- Oregon dropped 6 spots last week for losing a very tight game to #13 Utah (who is currently #10). You're "takes" are so consistently hyperbolically inane, it isn't even funny.
They aren't dropping 6 spots behind a team they beat recently.
Oregon will also jump us this week--they now have to overcorrect.
The SEC is different as you know--they aren't going to ignore wins over #5 or #6 LSU and #9 Bama contrary to what you want to happen
 

LandoComando

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If the Bama resume sucks, why does beating them matter for others? Essentially, it's false credit for an SEC agenda. Their teams start higher, they drop slower, and if you come from outside the rankings you climb quicker.

Same thing has happened with the PAC 12. Are any of them really any better than 10th? Here sits USC about to fall into the playoff backwards. Unless USC beats ND, the conference will have lost every meaningful OOC game minus Washington over Sparty, who needs to beat us to make the playoff.
Because they're still Bama--great talent just lack quality wins.
USC might be better than 10 but in most years no--this year maybe
 

doctornick

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LSU won't drop behind Bama even if Georgia wins by 40

Why wouldn’t LSU drop below Bama with a loss in the SECC? Teams drop a good bit all the time after losing the CCG. Just looking at 2021, Oklahoma St dropped from 5 to 9 (falling behind non CCG participants tOSU and Ole Miss); Oregon dropped from 10 to 14 (falling behind Mich St and BYU who didn’t play in CCG).

I’d actually be pretty shocked if LSU didn’t fall behind Bama by losing to Georgia (assuming both win this upcoming weekend). Even head to head shouldn’t be that big of a deal considering LSU won by one point in OT. LSU had the worse losses (so so FSU and a blowout to Tenn as opposed to Bama’s close loss).
 

LandoComando

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Why wouldn’t LSU drop below Bama with a loss in the SECC? Teams drop a good bit all the time after losing the CCG. Just looking at 2021, Oklahoma St dropped from 5 to 9 (falling behind non CCG participants tOSU and Ole Miss); Oregon dropped from 10 to 14 (falling behind Mich St and BYU who didn’t play in CCG).

I’d actually be pretty shocked if LSU didn’t fall behind Bama by losing to Georgia (assuming both win this upcoming weekend). Even head to head shouldn’t be that big of a deal considering LSU won by one point in OT. LSU had the worse losses (so so FSU and a blowout to Tenn as opposed to Bama’s close loss).
Historically we've seen the committee doesn't hold "having to play an extra game" against a team especially when they beat Bama
 

CJFisJoePaII

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I don’t think that’s entirely true for some of the conference tie in slots (it does for any at large ones). I read for example that the Big 12 has a specific tie breaker for other teams to decide who goes to the Sugar if the champ goes to the playoffs.

For the purposes of where PSU goes that, yes that’s the key feature so it would be instructive as to where we are ranked come Tuesday.

Believe the Selection Process varies by Bowl - for instance, the Rose Bowl takes highest ranked b1g and Pac12 teams in the Final CFP Rankings not selected for CFP 4-Team Invitational. Ditto the Sugar but for SEC and B12 teams. However, I believe the Orange and Cotton only have one side of draw attached to a Conference Champ (or highest ranked team if Conf Champ is in CFP Invitational) but whoever picks first (it alternates year-to-year) is free to select any top 12 Ranked team in final CFP Rankings not committed to CFP Invitational or Bowl. Then the other has to take a G5 team if ranked in Top 12. Again, not positive, but pretty sure that's the process.
 

doctornick

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If the Bama resume sucks, why does beating them matter for others? Essentially, it's false credit for an SEC agenda. Their teams start higher, they drop slower, and if you come from outside the rankings you climb quicker.
well that’s definitely true for the SEC. They start ranked higher with more teams so when they beat up on each other they kinda “retain” that ranking value in conference. It also helps that they only play 8 conference games and typically only 1 real non conference opponent so that’s basically an extra win to every single SEC team compared to conferences that play 9 conference games. That’s going to inflate records and make the conference appear stronger across the board than reality.

I mean, the SEC is clearly the best conference but the reputation is over inflated compared to what it “should” be.
 
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CJFisJoePaII

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Why wouldn’t LSU drop below Bama with a loss in the SECC? Teams drop a good bit all the time after losing the CCG. Just looking at 2021, Oklahoma St dropped from 5 to 9 (falling behind non CCG participants tOSU and Ole Miss); Oregon dropped from 10 to 14 (falling behind Mich St and BYU who didn’t play in CCG).

I’d actually be pretty shocked if LSU didn’t fall behind Bama by losing to Georgia (assuming both win this upcoming weekend). Even head to head shouldn’t be that big of a deal considering LSU won by one point in OT. LSU had the worse losses (so so FSU and a blowout to Tenn as opposed to Bama’s close loss).

To your last sentence.... Tenn's blowout loss to an Unranked team hurts LSU as well relative to Bama (i.e., it makes LSU's blowout loss to Tenn look even worse).
 

doctornick

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Historically we've seen the committee doesn't hold "having to play an extra game" against a team especially when they beat Bama
I literally in the post pointed out that yes indeed the committee drops down teams who lose the CCG compared to teams who don’t play them but you seem to ignore that. 🤷

They might not penalize CCG losers as much as a regular season loss but they don’t just ignore the results and keep teams ranked the same.
 

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