Palm's Update Bowl Projections

LandoComando

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Nov 29, 2021
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I literally in the post pointed out that yes indeed the committee drops down teams who lose the CCG compared to teams who don’t play them but you seem to ignore that. 🤷

They might not penalize CCG losers as much as a regular season loss but they don’t just ignore the results and keep teams ranked the same.
It's not true though--claiming it doesn't make it reality
You're looking for the exceptions to the rule not the norm
 

CJFisJoePaII

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Sep 6, 2019
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They aren't dropping 6 spots behind a team they beat recently.
Oregon will also jump us this week--they now have to overcorrect.
The SEC is different as you know--they aren't going to ignore wins over #5 or #6 LSU and #9 Bama contrary to what you want to happen

You're such an f'ing perpetually wrong twit it isn't even funny - the Coaches' Poll was just released and guess what dumbass...... Tenn dropped 6 spots to #11 and is one spot behind PSU who moved to #10. LMAO.
 

LandoComando

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You're such an f'ing perpetually wrong twit it isn't even funny - the Coaches' Poll was just released and guess what dumbass...... Tenn dropped 6 spots to #11 and is one spot behind PSU who moved to #10. LMAO.
The Coaches Poll doesn't have meaning as you know
If Tennessee is below Penn State in the Playoff Poll tomorrow I'll own it. And we'll see if the committee says it's about Hooker or the loss or both.
 

doctornick

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Sep 4, 2007
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It's not true though--claiming it doesn't make it reality
You're looking for the exceptions to the rule not the norm

What are you talking about? I'm not looking for exceptions, I'm looking at history.

I went through the past 5 or 6 years (not 2020 since that was an exception) at the losing teams of a CCG always drop at least a few spots (typically between 2 to 5). When they have stayed the same or only dropped 1 spot it has been because there was no teams with the same losses to drop below (i.e. a team going from 11-1 to 11-2 isn't going to drop below a 10-2 team).

The only exception I found to this trend was Wisconsin in 2019 staying at #8 (instead of falling below Florida and/or PSU who were all 10-2 going into that weekend).

LSU going from 10-2 to 10-3 by losing to Georgia would be likely to drop a few spots below other 10-2 teams in the final rankings if past trends hold. Alabama would be going to the Sugar in all likelihood if they win this weekend.
 

LandoComando

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What are you talking about? I'm not looking for exceptions, I'm looking at history.

I went through the past 5 or 6 years (not 2020 since that was an exception) at the losing teams of a CCG always drop at least a few spots (typically between 2 to 5). When they have stayed the same or only dropped 1 spot it has been because there was no teams with the same losses to drop below (i.e. a team going from 11-1 to 11-2 isn't going to drop below a 10-2 team).

The only exception I found to this trend was Wisconsin in 2019 staying at #8 (instead of falling below Florida and/or PSU who were all 10-2 going into that weekend).

LSU going from 10-2 to 10-3 by losing to Georgia would be likely to drop a few spots below other 10-2 teams in the final rankings if past trends hold. Alabama would be going to the Sugar in all likelihood if they win this weekend.
Notice between 2 and 5--you listed the larger ones. LSU dropping 2 spots keeps them ahead of Bama most likely. You need to comparable comparable scenarios.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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What are you talking about? I'm not looking for exceptions, I'm looking at history.

I went through the past 5 or 6 years (not 2020 since that was an exception) at the losing teams of a CCG always drop at least a few spots (typically between 2 to 5). When they have stayed the same or only dropped 1 spot it has been because there was no teams with the same losses to drop below (i.e. a team going from 11-1 to 11-2 isn't going to drop below a 10-2 team).

The only exception I found to this trend was Wisconsin in 2019 staying at #8 (instead of falling below Florida and/or PSU who were all 10-2 going into that weekend).

LSU going from 10-2 to 10-3 by losing to Georgia would be likely to drop a few spots below other 10-2 teams in the final rankings if past trends hold. Alabama would be going to the Sugar in all likelihood if they win this weekend.

This moron just told me Tenn would never "free fall" 6 spots behind PSU in a Poll this morning (despite teams falling that many all the time especially when losing to an unranked team)..... then the Coaches Poll came out at 2pm and Tenn dropped 6 spots to #11 and PSU moved to #10 LMAO. Then he comes back and says - that doesn't count....blah, blah, blah.... You can't make this stuff up with this twit.
 

doctornick

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Sep 4, 2007
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Notice between 2 and 5--you listed the larger ones. LSU dropping 2 spots keeps them ahead of Bama most likely. You need to comparable comparable scenarios.

USC will pass LSU if they keep winning (probably this week, but if not certainly next week) and LSU will only be one spot ahead of Bama. And if USC loses they still will be only one spot above Bama.

But I'm not sure why that is relevant - based on history a team that has the same record as teams right below them tends to fall below those teams if they lose their championship game. LSU is far more likely to fall below Bama/PSU/ Tenn than stay above all of them if they lose to Georgia [Oregon would be dependent on what they do themselves].

Just for shits and giggles, why don't you actually cite an example of a team that stayed above teams with the same record going in after losing the CCG? I've given you Wisconsin in 2019, point out all the others.
 

LandoComando

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Nov 29, 2021
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USC will pass LSU if they keep winning (probably this week, but if not certainly next week) and LSU will only be one spot ahead of Bama. And if USC loses they still will be only one spot above Bama.

But I'm not sure why that is relevant - based on history a team that has the same record as teams right below them tends to fall below those teams if they lose their championship game. LSU is far more likely to fall below Bama/PSU/ Tenn than stay above all of them if they lose to Georgia [Oregon would be dependent on what they do themselves].
So now LSU is going to fall below Penn State for losing a 13th game to Georgia?
 

doctornick

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So now LSU is going to fall below Penn State for losing a 13th game to Georgia?

Possibly. I would argue they will almost certainly fall below Bama and could fall below PSU and Tenn but that would depend on how they perform versus UGa - a blowout and yes, I do think they would fall below PSU (assuming PSU looks good versus MSU).
 
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CJFisJoePaII

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USC will pass LSU if they keep winning (probably this week, but if not certainly next week) and LSU will only be one spot ahead of Bama. And if USC loses they still will be only one spot above Bama.

But I'm not sure why that is relevant - based on history a team that has the same record as teams right below them tends to fall below those teams if they lose their championship game. LSU is far more likely to fall below Bama/PSU/ Tenn than stay above all of them if they lose to Georgia [Oregon would be dependent on what they do themselves].

Just for shits and giggles, why don't you actually cite an example of a team that stayed above teams with the same record going in after losing the CCG? I've given you Wisconsin in 2019, point out all the others.

This twit is so illogical it's just laughable. One week he says nobody will jump LSU stays if they win the remainder of their Reg Season games...... and their ranking at Reg Season end will be unaffected by a loss to UGa in SEC CCG (this is what he said when he was predicting UGa and Tenn to CFP 4-Team Invitational and LSU to Sugar as highest ranked SEC team outside 4-Team Invitational over Bama even if they lose to UGa). Of course this logically means that now LSU will be in front of USC for CFP 4-Team Invitational as their rankings will be unaffected by CCG results..... but now he's saying USC will jump LSU now that Tenn has lost???? He is so absurdly inconsistent and constantly changing his inane arguments, it isn't even funny.
 

LandoComando

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Possibly. I would argue they will almost certainly fall below Bama and could fall below PSU and Tenn but that would depend on how they perform versus UGa - a blowout and yes, I do think they would fall below PSU (assuming PSU looks good versus MSU).
So, you're saying you think punishing a team for playing an extra game against top ranked Georgia is fair/just? It's illogical but okay
 

LandoComando

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The AP poll, which is also irrelevant has Tennessee/Oregon/Penn State at 9-11...we'll see what the poll Tuesday says but that's what is being projected for that as well
 

doctornick

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So, you're saying you think punishing a team for playing an extra game against top ranked Georgia is fair/just? It's illogical but okay
No, I’m saying the CFP rankings have historically dropped teams who lose CCGs below teams with similar records. Whether it’s “fair” or not is irrelevant, I’m looking at historical trends.
 

CJFisJoePaII

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No, I’m saying the CFP rankings have historically dropped teams who lose CCGs below teams with similar records. Whether it’s “fair” or not is irrelevant, I’m looking at historical trends.

How is it "fair" that LSU is ranked where they are??? (currently in front of two 1-loss P5 teams in the CFP Rankings!). LSU is easily the most over-rated team in the top 10 as demonstrated by their placement relative to Tenn who utterly blew them out. So again, how is it "fair" that they're even ranked where they are??? This twit cracks me up with his ever-changing arguments and bullshit.
 
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The Spin Meister

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Nov 27, 2012
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An altered state
You realize the Orange Bowl is in Miami, right? It’s no where near the state of Alabama - it’s like a 12 hour drive from Tuscaloosa.
Didn’t now it was quite that far. But it is far shorter than Pittsburgh of Philly. And much of Alabama is a lot closer. Plus there are an awful lot of Tide fans throughout the south. And sounthern fans don’t have the draw of warm weather in Jan..... or the push of Old Man Winter.🌬
 

LandoComando

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No, I’m saying the CFP rankings have historically dropped teams who lose CCGs below teams with similar records. Whether it’s “fair” or not is irrelevant, I’m looking at historical trends.
You're not looking at comparable situations
 

djm_psu_alum

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Nov 30, 2016
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Penn State always has solid national ratings on broadcasts. Having Penn State gets the huge northeast market, ‘bama gets the south. But Clemson also gets much of the southern. And since people are tired of seeing ‘bama all the time in the playoffs even the west coast would rather see a different team......IMO....obviously.
Do you have actual regional viewings data to back this up? I live in SoCal and I know loads of college football fans here who if given the choice, will watch Alabama and Clemson over PSU. I have friends in Colorado as well here I strongly suspect that is the same for them. In the last 10 years, Alabama and Clemson are far more well known and covered nationally than PSU.
 

djm_psu_alum

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You realize the Orange Bowl is in Miami, right? It’s no where near the state of Alabama - it’s like a 12 hour drive from Tuscaloosa.
Heck of a lot closer than PA, NY, and NJ. Also, are you assuming there are no Bama fans or transplants in FL?
 

doctornick

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Again, the ones you used weren't comparable. If you want to use something comparable feel free

So, that's a no, then? You just like making claims without any evidence?

All of the following teams dropped below teams who did not play in CCG with the same or worse records going into championship weekend:

2021 Oklahoma St (11-1 going in) dropped below Notre Dame (11-1), Ohio St (10-2), and Ole Miss (10-2)
2021 Oregon (10-2) dropped below Michigan St (10-2), BYU (10-2)
2019 Utah (11-1) dropped below Florida (10-2), PSU (10-2)
2018 Texas (9-3) dropped below Kentucky (9-3)
2017 Wisconsin (12-0) fell below Alabama (11-1)
2017 Miami (FL) (10-1*) fell below PSU (10-2)
2017 TCU (10-2) fell below Washington (10-2), Notre Dame (9-3)

So, your turn?

*they did not play a game due to Hurricane Irma
 
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doctornick

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Heck of a lot closer than PA, NY, and NJ. Also, are you assuming there are no Bama fans or transplants in FL?

Did you even read the post I was replying to? The statement was that Bama was a poor choice for the Orange Bowl because they were too close and fans would go in to the game for the day and drive home right away.
 

LandoComando

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So, that's a no, then? You just like making claims without any evidence?

All of the following teams dropped below teams who did not play in CCG with the same or worse records going into championship weekend:

2021 Oklahoma St (11-1 going in) dropped below Notre Dame (11-1), Ohio St (10-2), and Ole Miss (10-2)
2021 Oregon (10-2) dropped below Michigan St (10-2), BYI (10-2)
2019 Utah (11-1) dropped below Florida (10-2), PSU (10-2)
2018 Texas (9-3) drops below Kentucky (9-3)
2017 Wisconsin (12-0) fell below Alabama (11-1)
2017 Miami (FL) (10-1*) fell below PSU (10-2)
2017 TCU (10-2) fell below Washington (10-2), Notre Dame (9-3)

So, your turn?

*they lost a game due to Hurricane Irma
Tell me which one of those teams had a win against the team they dropped behind....
 

doctornick

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Tell me which one of those teams had a win against the team they dropped behind....

So you would say they'll definitely fall below Tennessee then?

Edit: also in 2017 Auburn lost the CCG and fell below an Alabama team that they had beaten.
 

djm_psu_alum

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Did you even read the post I was replying to? The statement was that Bama was a poor choice for the Orange Bowl because they were too close and fans would go in to the game for the day and drive home right away.
Too close? lol So it's bad they would be far more willing to go. Okay.
 

lazydave841

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Jan 9, 2021
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Now all bets are off on what they do to Tennessee because without him they might not be a top 25 team

With only Vandy left on the schedule, it's important that they beat them by 30+.

It'll be interesting to see where they get placed Tuesday. This is the chance for free fall. However, Vandy has beaten UK and Florida in consecutive weeks.
 
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LandoComando

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With only Vandy left on the schedule, it's important that they beat them by 30+.

It'll be interesting to see where they get placed Tuesday. This is the chance for free fall. However, Vandy has beaten UK and Florida in consecutive weeks.
Yupp they had to lose Hooker for the year to free fall and they did.
 

Lion84

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Lando is a tool who just wants to argue that PSU doesn’t deserve anything - not sure what his mental miss function is that he feels it necessary to argue against literally every pro PSU post but it’s stupid and tiresome- the person is a d-bag plain and simple and not worth anyones time in gauging with. He’s a clown plain and simple.
 
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LandoComando

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Lando is a tool who just wants to argue that PSU doesn’t deserve anything - not sure what his mental miss function is that he feels it necessary to argue against literally every pro PSU post but it’s stupid and tiresome- the person is a d-bag plain and simple and not worth anyones time in gauging with. He’s a clown plain and simple.
What am I arguing that we don't deserve?
You all don't even make sense. I've literally done nothing but praise us this year. The only games I've even been remotely critical are Purdue and Michigan. We were pathetic against Michigan. I've said repeatedly we're a top 10 team and I wish there was a large playoff this year so we could see what we could accomplish
I've also said repeatedly the future is bright
Just because I deal with "what is" as opposed to the fantasy world you and others want to live in doesn't make me a tool or a clown or anything else.
Please join me in reality
 

Online Persona

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Feb 2, 2022
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Lando is a tool who just wants to argue that PSU doesn’t deserve anything - not sure what his mental miss function is that he feels it necessary to argue against literally every pro PSU post but it’s stupid and tiresome- the person is a d-bag plain and simple and not worth anyones time in gauging with. He’s a clown plain and simple.
Yes, he's proven himself to not be a PSU fan to most of us now.
 
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MacNit07

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Aug 5, 2017
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Outside of the playoff, ny6 spots are filled based on highest ranking (within the confines of the conference obligations when applicable).

Reputation, tv ratings etc do not come into play.
What about auto non-Power 5?
 

doctornick

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Sep 4, 2007
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What about auto non-Power 5?

Highest ranked team in the CFP rankings. If no one is ranked in the top 25, they keep ranking teams until one shows up. Tulane plays Cinci this week, so the winner of that game will be favorite for the time being, but they'd have to play a CCG.