You listed it yourself--Tulane in the Cotton last year. Very unlikely they send them to the same bowl two years in a row. If it is a different G5 team, then sure.Most projections don't have us against Tulane or whatever random group of 5 team makes it.
If the 8 non playoff NY6 teams are.....Bama, Washington, Michigan, Texas, Mizzou, Ole Miss, PSU, Tulane.
Mizzou is not playing Tulane, bad ratings.
Bama, Michigan do not play them because they will want them playing each other.
That leaves us, Ole Miss, Washington and Texas as the 4 left. Hoping they stick them in Dallas vs Texas. They need a big brand to go against. In years past the group of 5 has played these games:
2014: #20 Boise State vs #10 Arizona in Fiesta Bowl
2015: #18 Houston vs #9 FSU in Peach Bowl
2016: #15 Western Michigan vs #8 Wisconsin in Cotton Bowl
2017: #12 UCF vs #7 Auburn in Peach Bowl
2018: #8 UCF vs #11 LSU in Fiesta Bowl
2019: #17 Memphis vs #10 PSU in Cotton Bowl
2020: #8 Cincinnati vs #9 Georgia in Peach Bowl
2021: #4 Cincinnati in playoff vs #1 Bama in Cotton Bowl
2022: #16 Tulane vs #10 USC in Cotton Bowl
Recent history shows a trend to pit the Group of 5 versus a big brand opponent that has a strong fan base and will garner good TV ratings....Auburn, LSU, PSU, Georgia, USC (USC does not travel well but has a huge brand name with good TV ratings). Also, the Peach or Cotton are the most common destinations for the group of 5.
There is no way Mizzou plays them. I see Ole Miss going to the Peach Bowl and I think we would be their opponent. They probably leave UDub in the Fiesta. I think Texas could be the odd man out if the playoff falls that way.
Peach and Cotton were the common destination for G5 teams because Rose, Sugar, and Orange had secure conference affiliations.
If Ole Miss is in the NY6, then who drops out? They are #12 in CFP. Tulane or another G5 gets in so it's really top 11 who get in (barring an upset in a conference championship game where an unranked or very low ranked team gets the bid).