Penn State's toughest dual meet
- Thread starter PerryLion1997
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I keep trying to play out tOSU and Iowa duals but with question marks on Cassar, Nevills, and the Bo/Shak/Cutch scenario...it's hard to spell out exactly.
Breaking things down in my head though I feel like our worst case scenario against either is a 5-5 split with us finding more bonus.
Breaking things down in my head though I feel like our worst case scenario against either is a 5-5 split with us finding more bonus.
I think it will be at National Duals or whatever they call it now.
I don't think we will, but I could see us winning 8 matches against Iowa. As above, best case scenario for Iowa is 5-5 split and I don't think that's happening either.
Against tOSU, 5-5 split may be more likely but I still think we could pull 7 matches from them.
I don't think we will, but I could see us winning 8 matches against Iowa. As above, best case scenario for Iowa is 5-5 split and I don't think that's happening either.
Against tOSU, 5-5 split may be more likely but I still think we could pull 7 matches from them.
Iowa's best case scenario is 5-5 split?
125, 133, 141, 174, 184, 197 and HW are all reasonable weights for Iowa to win. To be clear, I wouldn't pick them to win 7 weights, but not one of those weights, by themselves, would be a shocking Iowa win.
125, 133, 141, 174, 184, 197 and HW are all reasonable weights for Iowa to win. To be clear, I wouldn't pick them to win 7 weights, but not one of those weights, by themselves, would be a shocking Iowa win.
Sammy Brooks was the #2 seed at 184. If he and Nickal meet up, him winning shouldn't shock anyone.
ETA: To be clear, this presumes Nickal at 184. If he goes 184, then I would be shocked to see Meyer beat him.
If Rasheed goes 74 and Bo goes 84, I'd be more surprised by Meyer beating Rasheed than I would Brooks beating Bo.
Brooks is a really tough kid. He's been in some wars.
Whereas I think Meyer can be had by a quality wrestler. He's had several flakey matches.
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Back to original post.
I think we have to see the PSU lineup before we figure out if the toughest dual will be Iowa, Ohio St or the end of the year NWCA/BCS dual, whatever they call it.
Brooks is a really tough kid. He's been in some wars.
Whereas I think Meyer can be had by a quality wrestler. He's had several flakey matches.
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Back to original post.
I think we have to see the PSU lineup before we figure out if the toughest dual will be Iowa, Ohio St or the end of the year NWCA/BCS dual, whatever they call it.
It would be a big surprise to see either Nickal or Gulibon lose IMO.
Unless Iowa is hiding an AA at 141 - Gulibon takes a lot of crap, but he is much better than what Iowa is sending out there this year.
Nickal will be in the finals this year - most likely at 184. And I won't be surprised to see him win it.
I won't be shocked to see PSU win at 174, 197 or 285 also. Most likely going to get at least 1.
Of course there can be upsets, but that goes both ways. I stand by MO that best case Iowa gets 5. Best case.
Re: Gulibon, if you want to pretend that it's a shock if he lost, that's fine, but here are some of the Ls Jimmy took last year: Zac Hall, Cortlandt Schuyler, and Javier Gasca. Hardly a murderer's row. It's a bit rich to be surprised if Jimmy loses to any ranked opponent.
Re: Nickal, that's your opinion, but that still doesn't make it surprising if he loses a match to the 2 seed at this weight. Nickal lost last year to Nate Jackson and he's now moving up into a tougher weight. There are going to be a few guys this year who can beat Nickal. Dean, Zahid, Brooks, Dudley, Nolan Boyd, Willie Miklus, Myles Martin. All guys he can beat, also (except Dean), but this isn't 174.
I won't be shocked if PSU wins 174 with Rasheed or 197 if it's Cassar, but I will be if it's 285. Nevills has shown exactly zero at this weight in two years. Two straight years of development lost to injury.
Regardless, I think you're just being pie in the sky if you think that Nickal or Gulibon (especially Gulibon...I mean, come on man) are huge favorites.
I'm not that high on Meyer, but if there's one thing he has, it's a tank. If there's one area Rasheed struggled, it's with his tank. Will that be completely alleviated by the lesser cut, or is that just an issue he can't overcome (see: Eric Grajales, Andrew Alton, etc.)? Somewhere in the middle. Regardless, I think Rasheed is a big talent who may have a fatal flaw.
I think it's more likely Gulibon scores a major over Turk or Carton than it is that he lose.
So many variables with all the top teams, really can't wrap my head around potential dual meet outcomes yet. First couple months of the season is going to be a lot of fun watching how all the unknowns start to clarify.
Both are great teams, though I think tOSU presents a tougher matchup challenge for us. I think we go 7-3 or 6-4 against Iowa with a definitive bonus point edge. tOSU looks more likely to be 5-5.
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Again, Gulibon is a solid favorite in my opinion. Upsets can happen everywhere, but I'm not seeing this one unless there is something I'm not seeing in Iowa at 141.
Again, upsets can happen. Bo Nickal lost to Nate Jackson last year. He also lost to Martin, which was an upset. Two losses in 35. I'd think he would beat Brooks 8 or 9 out of 10 times. Same with everyone else at 184 not named Dean (or Valencia, but I think he is going 174).
Nevills is a complete wild card. TBF, your statement is not true - I would say beating Marsden and Dejournette a few months into your true frosh year is showing something at 285. He's been healthy for approximately 8 months now - your guess is as good as mine how good he will be. I'd suspect he is going to end up being very good this year if he stays away from injury. But that's a huge if as I think that guys that get injured, well, they tend to get injured.
I'm sure the room reports on Nevills will be as good as the room reports on Carton or Turk...
Doesn't Iowa need to first figure out which guy with no previous starting experience will go at 141, before declaring him a good possibility of beating a returning All-American who has defeated Iowa's returning 133 national finalist?
He lost to Marsden and it wasn't close, and I think he lost to Dejournette too. But of course he was hurt so he would of won both of those matches if healthy!
He broke his foot early in the Marsden match. He beat Dejournette I believe.He lost to Marsden and it wasn't close, and I think he lost to Dejournette too. But of course he was hurt so he would of won both of those matches if healthy!
As far as injuries, that's the excuse you guys are leaning on for Jojo's showing against Nolf at NCAAs. Some sort of phantom knee injury, but he had no visible wrap on it.
I am 100% confident that Nevills would've beaten Dejournette if healthy -- because he did win the match.He lost to Marsden and it wasn't close, and I think he lost to Dejournette too. But of course he was hurt so he would of won both of those matches if healthy!
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/7...state-vs-denzel-dejournette-appalachain-state
He lost to Marsden and it wasn't close, and I think he lost to Dejournette too. But of course he was hurt so he would of won both of those matches if healthy!
Sorry, brain fart this morning - I must be hanging around 34 and counting (forever) too much. I meant to say he beat Dejournette and Riley Shaw. I knew he lost to Marsden but just mistyped was thinking about his opponents at the Scuffle that year and typed the wrong match.
Yes he did break his foot in the first period there. No, he wasn't going to win that match,
Nevills was(is?) very good on his feet for a 285. Not big enough or strong enough his true freshman year, but technique wise and athletically - he is a NC type prospect. But you need to develop physically to excel at 285. We will see how Nick's injuries have affected his progress there this year.
Yep, all of this.
Turk - his best win was over Gross, who was his teammate so there's familiarity, and has to receive a percentage discount. Other than that, he hasn't really beaten anyone that would put him close to AA status. Alfau is probably his second best win. On the flipside he got rocked by Ashnault, lost to Carton (again teammate), Jake Koethe, and Anthony Wesley. And all of a sudden he's in the R12-AA category? It's Iowa homerism. Which is fine, and I think he will be a solid wrestler, but there's no objective evidence to put him on this level yet. Turk being anything other than an underdog to Gulibon is just not correct. We don't even know if he'll start.
Nevills still has something to prove to be in the AA area as well. But, he has some solid wins.
Nickal at 84 is a bit tricky (if that's what happens). He went with Dean in free so that indicates the size isn't really an issue, at least I don't think it is. At 74 last year I'm in the camp that the only guy that beat him was himself. But, that is a real issue because at the end of the day he didn't win it. I would hate to see Bo go up and temper his style because it's so fun to watch, but it's possible AND may help him. That's if he goes up, that's if he changes things up (which I selfishly don't want him to but the coaches know best).
Based on his sterling results last year?
1. There seems to be something you're not seeing about your own 141. Namely, who he was last year.
2. I think we're just in a flat disagreement here. Part of Nickal's success was his extreme length at 174. THat will be mitigated at 184. His talent is also obviously huge, I'm not saying he can't beat Brooks, obviously.
3. What I said about Nevills was exaggerated, but only slightly. His best win is over Dejournette, and that's his only (relatively) high level win, plus two seasons ended by serious injuries.
Saying someone can beat Jimmy Gulibon is not some great accomplishment based on his results at 141.
Turk was a true freshman last year. Gross was kicked off the team the year before. He's ranked 20th by Flo. To say it's "ridiculous" to put him on Gulibon's level, as if Gulibon was on some sort of elevated plane last year, is ridiculous. I'm not putting him as some sort of AA lock/R12 guy...but neither is Gulibon. AS evidenced by last year when he, you know, didn't AA or make the Round of 12.
I know exactly who Gulibon is. AA 2 years ago at 133. R16 last year and B1G finalist last year at 141. Top 12ish guy this year with the ability andvtrack record to beatsome in the top 10. You seem to be the one who is unfamiliar with him.
Yes, we will disagree if you think length is the reason that Nickal did well last year and that he will lose that this year at 84. In fact, I ve got to admit, that made me chuckle a bit.
You're right, I got my timing mixed up, probably confused him with Ryan.
Gulibon still did much better at the weight last year than Turk. Got more opportunities, but did better definitely. And I think Jimmy only getting to R16 would reinforce Turk not being there yet. His (VT) success is banked on essentially one win and room talk. 6 Wrestlers that placed higher at 41 are gone, so Jimmy is definitely closer.
I know there are a ton of posts in this thread but my stance is simply that Turk winning over Gulibon today, would be borderline shocking, based on results. That's mainly what I was responding to.
Who did he beat to make the Round of 16? A clearly VERY injured Matt Manley, and then nobody of consequence before losing to Seth Gross, who Turk beat last year. What were his results the rest of the year? Middling at best, including the losses I indicated in an earlier post. He's just not the guy you're making him out to be at 141 thusfar. If that changes, I'll alter my opinion, but until then, you're just denying the reality of what he's accomplished at the weight.
What an amazing interpretation of what I said. I said his length is ONE of the reasons he succeeded, and then proceeded to laud him for his immense talent also. It's truly amazing that you would get so fired up and dismissive of the #2 seed from NCAAs beating a guy moving up from 174 who was not dominant and unbeatable at his own weight. Again, I have never said that Brooks is a lock to beat Nickal in any way whatsoever.
I don't see how you could say Gulibon losing to any top 25ish guy is shocking based on his losses last year. Plus I don't see these massive accomplishments at 141 that you're talking about. He lost to Zac Hall and Cortlandt Schuyler!
Excellent and substantive post.
Because I think Jimmy at the end of the year is not equal to Jimmy at the beginning of the year, which is what was expected considering he had to grow into the weight. If he wrestled Turk at the beginning of last year, maybe i'd be less shocked, but still surprised.
It seems the argument is based on what could happen versus what is likely to happen. Sure Jimmy could lose to a bunch of guys, something you could say about 95-99% of guys in wrestling right now.
If that's not it, can you explain to me exactly how Turk is in Jimmy's league right now, because I seem to be missing it?
Who was Jimmy at the end of the year? He had one good tournament at B1Gs, but at NCAAs he was the same guy he'd been all year. Counting his matches in February in beyond, which I guess would qualify as the end of the year, he was 4-7.
As to why he's in the same league: Turk beat the guy who beat Jimmy, which is in line with the rest of his season, as opposed to one OT win over Micah Jordan. Counting his matches in March only, he was 4-3. I'm not seeing a vastly improved Jimmy Gulibon.
So you are banking Turk's level off of one win. I just don't agree with that, and I'm not going to. Jimmy's been inconsistent but he has also shown the ability to beat solid wrestlers, on a somewhat consistent level. I also think you're discounting Jimmy's wrestling at the end of the year but that's your opinion and I'm clearly not going to change it.
I'm leaving this at 'we'll see' if Turk is starting and wrestles Jimmy. I will still be surprised if Turk wins.
I think a second year at 141 will help Jimmy.
Some losses last year he was dreadful, but most of his losses were close and where he made crisp, clean shots but just couldn't finish.
Plus, give the PSU room & coaches some credit - I think they've earned it via their track record. Jimmy is very close and another year at that same weight & in that room can help him immensely.
He's beaten Cory Clark. He's beaten Micah Jordan. The pedigree is there.
Some losses last year he was dreadful, but most of his losses were close and where he made crisp, clean shots but just couldn't finish.
Plus, give the PSU room & coaches some credit - I think they've earned it via their track record. Jimmy is very close and another year at that same weight & in that room can help him immensely.
He's beaten Cory Clark. He's beaten Micah Jordan. The pedigree is there.
Who cares. They settle it on the mat not on the message board. Everything is just opinion.
Sammy Brooks wrestled way over his head at Bigs (wrestled at home) and came back to earth at Nationals. The #2 seed was based on his winning Bigs. Brooks winning against Nickal would be a total shock.
He wrestled way over his head by beating guys he's already beaten as the 3 seed? What? But Jimmy taking second as an 8 seed is him "returning to his normal level"?
You use the same argument against Gulibon that you use for Brooks. I'd also add that Gulibon gets a different draw if he loses to Manley - hard to argue a hypothetical that he is not deserving of his finish. Fact is that he was R16 last year and his body of work is far superior than anything Iowa has at 141 at this point in time. In fact, at this time his body of work for his career is superior to Brooks. I get that he is a disappointment to many as he is not considered a high AA at this point.
Gulibon and Nickal are solid favorites at this point - period. If you want to argue that Gulibon could be upset - that's a different argument. It would be a surprise, at this point, the match is not a tossup.
Things could change during the season - at a lot of weights.
Gulibon and Nickal are solid favorites at this point - period. If you want to argue that Gulibon could be upset - that's a different argument. It would be a surprise, at this point, the match is not a tossup.
Things could change during the season - at a lot of weights.
