Put an unreasonable amount of time and thought into the CFP rankings this week. Penn State's ranking is largely meaningless right now. Either win out and head to CFP or lose to OSU and finish 10-2 and likely out of the NY6. The investment from me into this topic is now purely about showing the logic to the committee. The group has a job that is there to be criticized, but regardless of all the conspiracy theories, they've almost universally done a great job. I haven’t always agreed with every decision, but their choices can still have merit even if I don't agree with them. Anyway, here's how I see CFP committee's rankings shaping up tomorrow night:
Tier 1:
1) LSU (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 19
Strength of Record: 1
Game Control: 2
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 4-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 24.3
2) Ohio State (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 38
Strength of Record: 2
Game Control: 1
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 42.4
I don’t expect Ohio State to stay #1. It's possible given their game control and MOV, but lets be real, its going to be LSU. Maybe after Penn State, Michigan and B1G Champ Game Ohio State could reclaim #1, but I'm not looking forward.
Tier 2:
3) Clemson (10-0)
Strength of Schedule: 69
Strength of Record: 5
Game Control: 3
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 33.8
Clemson is really in a tier of their own. Nowhere close to the resume of the top 2, but the combo of their strength of record, game control, and margin of victory are really good. Definitely better than all of the next tier. They have flaws in the resume because they haven’t played anybody, but the committee hasn’t typically penalized a team for that as long as they schedule appropriately (which Clemson has) even if the teams on their schedule end up being duds. Unlike Baylor and Minnesota, Clemson is shredding everyone they play. They also haven't lost.
Tier 3:
4) Alabama (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 39
Strength of Record: 10
Game Control: 5
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 29.1
5) Minnesota (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 72
Strength of Record: 4
Game Control: 13
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 16.9
6) Penn State (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 31
Strength of Record: 6
Game Control: 7
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 25.1
7) Georgia (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 29
Strength of Record: 11
Game Control: 8
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 23.6
8) Baylor (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 65
Strength of Record: 3
Game Control: 19
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 16.3
9) Oregon (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 33
Strength of Record: 8
Game Control: 10
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 22.4
This 4-9 tier is really a toss up. The committee could really go in any direction. Personally, if I were on the committee, I would not rate Alabama #4. My personal ranking would have them around #8 because their resume is clearly deficient. They've blow everyone out except for their 5 point loss to #1. I don't view these decisions by the committee as anything to do with what they did last week. I view them as selecting the best teams in order. Alabama just went toe to toe with #1 and I just don’t see a team whos only loss, when everyone knows theyre really good being below other flawed resumes. It’s a problem for sure because it sets a not so great precedent. Georgia and Penn State have clearly better resumes. Minnesota and Baylor are still undefeated, both with top 10 and 25 wins, respectively (wins Alabama doesn't have). To me, Alabama is the biggest wildcard. Penn State and Georgia are clearly the best one loss resumes. Penn State is better in Strength of Record, Game Control, MOV, and their loss is to a top ten team and not a team with a losing record. Penn State will be ahead of Georgia. How do you not rank Minnesota ahead of Penn State. I think they will be heavily rewarded for their win. It’s the second best win among the top ten (behind LSU's win over Alabama). Baylor is a tough one because they have a somewhat respectable win against Ok State, but they're not winning convincingly. They don’t have a really good win yet. But they do have the #3 Strength of Record. My locks: Penn State will be ahead of Georgia and Oregon, and Minnesota will be ahead of Penn State. Not sure what they're going to do with Baylor or Alabama. Personally, I'd have them in the order of Minnesota, Baylor, Penn State, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon simply based on resumes and respecting how hard it is to keep winning. Fortunately, with the Oklahoma – Baylor game this week and the Auburn – Georgia games, we will get some clarity.
Tier 4:
10) Utah (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 44
Strength of Record: 12
Game Control: 11
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 20.9
11) Oklahoma (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 55
Strength of Record: 15
Game Control: 6
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 23.4
Not much to note here. Neither team did anything to change their pecking order this week. Minnesota and Baylor will move in front of them. Oklahoma only has two wins over teams with winning records. Went down to the wire at home vs Iowa State this week. Quality of the Kansas State loss took a dip this week when they lost. I think Oklahoma is the better team, but I don’t see their view of the two resumes changing.
Tier 5:
12) Florida (8-2)
Strength of Schedule: 13
Strength of Record: 9
Game Control: 16
Top 10 Record: 0-2
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 18.3
13) Auburn (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 3
Strength of Record: 7
Game Control: 9
Top 10 Record: 1-1
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 15.2
14) Wisconsin (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 35
Strength of Record: 16
Game Control: 4
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 21.8
15) Michigan (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 26
Strength of Record: 14
Game Control: 15
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.7
The two SEC teams will stay ahead of the two Big Ten teams. Interestingly enough, I think Auburn has a better resume than Florida and Michigan has a better resume than Wisconsin, but both are inverted because of head to head results.
Long, I know. Apparently I have no life.
Tier 1:
1) LSU (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 19
Strength of Record: 1
Game Control: 2
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 4-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 6
Average Margin of Victory: 24.3
2) Ohio State (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 38
Strength of Record: 2
Game Control: 1
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 3-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 5
Average Margin of Victory: 42.4
I don’t expect Ohio State to stay #1. It's possible given their game control and MOV, but lets be real, its going to be LSU. Maybe after Penn State, Michigan and B1G Champ Game Ohio State could reclaim #1, but I'm not looking forward.
Tier 2:
3) Clemson (10-0)
Strength of Schedule: 69
Strength of Record: 5
Game Control: 3
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 33.8
Clemson is really in a tier of their own. Nowhere close to the resume of the top 2, but the combo of their strength of record, game control, and margin of victory are really good. Definitely better than all of the next tier. They have flaws in the resume because they haven’t played anybody, but the committee hasn’t typically penalized a team for that as long as they schedule appropriately (which Clemson has) even if the teams on their schedule end up being duds. Unlike Baylor and Minnesota, Clemson is shredding everyone they play. They also haven't lost.
Tier 3:
4) Alabama (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 39
Strength of Record: 10
Game Control: 5
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 29.1
5) Minnesota (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 72
Strength of Record: 4
Game Control: 13
Top 10 Record: 1-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 16.9
6) Penn State (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 31
Strength of Record: 6
Game Control: 7
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 25.1
7) Georgia (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 29
Strength of Record: 11
Game Control: 8
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 2-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 23.6
8) Baylor (9-0)
Strength of Schedule: 65
Strength of Record: 3
Game Control: 19
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 16.3
9) Oregon (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 33
Strength of Record: 8
Game Control: 10
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 22.4
This 4-9 tier is really a toss up. The committee could really go in any direction. Personally, if I were on the committee, I would not rate Alabama #4. My personal ranking would have them around #8 because their resume is clearly deficient. They've blow everyone out except for their 5 point loss to #1. I don't view these decisions by the committee as anything to do with what they did last week. I view them as selecting the best teams in order. Alabama just went toe to toe with #1 and I just don’t see a team whos only loss, when everyone knows theyre really good being below other flawed resumes. It’s a problem for sure because it sets a not so great precedent. Georgia and Penn State have clearly better resumes. Minnesota and Baylor are still undefeated, both with top 10 and 25 wins, respectively (wins Alabama doesn't have). To me, Alabama is the biggest wildcard. Penn State and Georgia are clearly the best one loss resumes. Penn State is better in Strength of Record, Game Control, MOV, and their loss is to a top ten team and not a team with a losing record. Penn State will be ahead of Georgia. How do you not rank Minnesota ahead of Penn State. I think they will be heavily rewarded for their win. It’s the second best win among the top ten (behind LSU's win over Alabama). Baylor is a tough one because they have a somewhat respectable win against Ok State, but they're not winning convincingly. They don’t have a really good win yet. But they do have the #3 Strength of Record. My locks: Penn State will be ahead of Georgia and Oregon, and Minnesota will be ahead of Penn State. Not sure what they're going to do with Baylor or Alabama. Personally, I'd have them in the order of Minnesota, Baylor, Penn State, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon simply based on resumes and respecting how hard it is to keep winning. Fortunately, with the Oklahoma – Baylor game this week and the Auburn – Georgia games, we will get some clarity.
Tier 4:
10) Utah (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 44
Strength of Record: 12
Game Control: 11
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 0-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 4
Average Margin of Victory: 20.9
11) Oklahoma (8-1)
Strength of Schedule: 55
Strength of Record: 15
Game Control: 6
Top 10 Record: 0-0
Top 25 Record: 1-0
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 23.4
Not much to note here. Neither team did anything to change their pecking order this week. Minnesota and Baylor will move in front of them. Oklahoma only has two wins over teams with winning records. Went down to the wire at home vs Iowa State this week. Quality of the Kansas State loss took a dip this week when they lost. I think Oklahoma is the better team, but I don’t see their view of the two resumes changing.
Tier 5:
12) Florida (8-2)
Strength of Schedule: 13
Strength of Record: 9
Game Control: 16
Top 10 Record: 0-2
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 2
Average Margin of Victory: 18.3
13) Auburn (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 3
Strength of Record: 7
Game Control: 9
Top 10 Record: 1-1
Top 25 Record: 1-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 15.2
14) Wisconsin (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 35
Strength of Record: 16
Game Control: 4
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-1
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 21.8
15) Michigan (7-2)
Strength of Schedule: 26
Strength of Record: 14
Game Control: 15
Top 10 Record: 0-1
Top 25 Record: 2-2
>.500 FBS Wins: 3
Average Margin of Victory: 14.7
The two SEC teams will stay ahead of the two Big Ten teams. Interestingly enough, I think Auburn has a better resume than Florida and Michigan has a better resume than Wisconsin, but both are inverted because of head to head results.
Long, I know. Apparently I have no life.
