Rewatched the Illinois game and I’m not excited about this weekend

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

Anyone not excited about this weekend has issues.

 

[BBrown]

Many times over the years many of the Big 10 powerhouses played back to back teams with no defense and none of them scored 60 back to back. To blow it off like it’s no big deal because they haven’t played anyone is ridiculous. Every team in the history of the Big 10 have played weak teams yet only four have achieved that accomplishment.

I think you misunderstood my post. I am not just "blowing it off".

 

[PSUFBFAN]

Anyone not excited about this weekend has issues.

I see one individual on this board who is excited about this weekend AND has issues ...

 

[olelion]

What are your football credentials?

He is not a coach or a troll. He is head of the PSU loyalty police on this message board

 

[Howie'81]

Anyone not excited about this weekend has issues.

I like that woman. She's got something about her.

 

[Madsol]

Many times over the years many of the Big 10 powerhouses played back to back teams with no defense and none of them scored 60 back to back. To blow it off like it’s no big deal because they haven’t played anyone is ridiculous. Every team in the history of the Big 10 have played weak teams yet only four have achieved that accomplishment.

Exactly right! It's like the people who blew off LJ's 2000 yards by claiming that we didn't play a lot of good defenses, as if every other B1G RB had been going up against a combination of the Steel Curtain Steelers and the '85 Bears. Silly.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

Exactly right! It's like the people who blew off LJ's 2000 yards by claiming that we didn't play a lot of good defenses, as if every other B1G RB had been going up against a combination of the Steel Curtain Steelers and the '85 Bears. Silly.

Bingo, it's called hypocrisy and scumbag homerism....the traditional b1g shizhole and traditional b1g shizholians have perfected this disgraceful behavior and culture.

 

[caseofthemondays]

The over/under is 71. I have to wonder what Big 10 conference game has ever been that high. Its going to look more like a Big 12 game.

I don't expect Penn State's defense to play well overall and it may not matter. Can they get a few turnovers? They may have a better chance to stop them with a single play/mistake.

If Penn State wins, what is the minimum number of points they scored?
I got 42.

 

[Westy81585]

Buckeye fan here;

ya'll are fine. Obviously my homerisms will not allow me to pick you guys for the W... But I'll be shocked if this gets out of hand in either direction. You've got warts sure, but so do we. Maybe Haskins drops the ball all over your secondary; or maybe you guys abuse our linebackers all night long and Haskins barely sees the field.

Just looking forward to Saturday. Looking like you guys are probably the best team we're playing in the regular season.

 

[schoolie]

Clown

Hey, man. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. I suggest you take a more diplomatic tone with your responses. I'm a PSU grad, a 30+ year season ticket holder, and a bleed-blue-and-white diehard. I have common sense and agree with some of the points the poster made. Considering the way our defense has been playing - let's say it's sporadic - I'll be happy to come out with a one-point win. But stop crackin' on these guys. You're the one who winds up looking like a clown. This board is not intended for name-calling. We have enough of that at the highest level of our country.

 

[PSU20]

Hey, man. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. I suggest you take a more diplomatic tone with your responses. I'm a PSU grad, a 30+ year season ticket holder, and a bleed-blue-and-white diehard. I have common sense and agree with some of the points the poster made. Considering the way our defense has been playing - let's say it's sporadic - I'll be happy to come out with a one-point win. But stop crackin' on these guys. You're the one who winds up looking like a clown. This board is not intended for name-calling. We have enough of that at the highest level of our country.

There are a lot of keyboard cowards on this board who do not know the word, "respect." Good post, right to the point!

 

[Lion8286]

There are a lot of keyboard cowards on this board who do not know the word, "respect." Good post, right to the point!

Hey PSU20, do YOU know what we’re up against?????

 

[BobPSU92]

I hate us every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

PSU 42-38. Home crowd helped make things difficult for OSU and helps cause a turnover that PSU will capitalize on.

Do agree with you and see a high-scoring, close, back-&-forth affair - not too dissimilar from the 2016 b1G CCG between PSU and Wisco. That's how "the statistical form" reads, but things don't always hold to form in these types of games (remember PSU just thrashing a decent Iowa team back in 2016...an Iowa team that had a very good defense - a better defense than this duhO$U team).

 

[Roswell-Blue]

Vegas says PSU has like a 40% chance and that's probably about right. Ohio State is a better team. Penn State is pretty close and it's at home so they have a good chance of winning despite that. I'm loving these fiery responses though. Please take it out on some buckeyes this weekend.

Yes, it is about right. Our eyes did not deceive us about the team's play at Illinois. Or the other games where it was obvious we need to get way better. For those who lean on such things, OSU has passed the eye test far better than we have. But what I care about more than what Vegas says is what the PSU players and coaches say. They understand themselves more than we ever will. None of us know what's stewing and brewing on the practice field or meeting rooms. Given the whiteout, Trace, 110,000 fans, and a national tv audience, there are more reasons for optimism than not.

 

[manofsteel200]

OSU's offense vs. our Defense scares me. I think it's a big mismatch .

Our Offense vs their Defense. We are stronger in that match up IF the WR's catch the damn ball.

I would say OSU by 14 makes sense....until you factor in the whiteout. This is an even game, IMO and will be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.

 

[KnightSlayer]

Yes, it is about right. Our eyes did not deceive us about the team's play at Illinois. Or the other games where it was obvious we need to get way better. For those who lean on such things, OSU has passed the eye test far better than we have. But what I care about more than what Vegas says is what the PSU players and coaches say. They understand themselves more than we ever will. None of us know what's stewing and brewing on the practice field or meeting rooms. Given the whiteout, Trace, 110,000 fans, and a national tv audience, there are more reasons for optimism than not.

Last time OSU passed the eye test, they lost to Clemson 31-0. I don't think it will be that bad this time. PSU takes a knee to end the game up by 13 points.

 

[Raffycorn]

2016 PSU/OSU Stats:

Total Yards: OSU 413 PSU 276
1st Downs: OSU 19 PSU 13
Time Poss: OSU 37:19 PSU 22:41

??????

Ohio State ran 23 more plays than Penn State did in 2016 - of course they had more yards and first downs. Time of possession is almost meaningless when it comes to its impact on a team's chances to win a given football game.

A much, much, much more important stat from that game: Ohio State averaged 4.97 yards per play, Penn State averaged 4.6 yards per play. The per-play efficiency is much more reflective of how even that game was.

 

[wilbury]

The Ohio State starting linebackers didn't record a single tackle or assist against Tulane. Their group is playing worse than ours.

Get out of here with your facts.

 

[Howie'81]

Yes, it is about right. Our eyes did not deceive us about the team's play at Illinois. Or the other games where it was obvious we need to get way better. For those who lean on such things, OSU has passed the eye test far better than we have. But what I care about more than what Vegas says is what the PSU players and coaches say. They understand themselves more than we ever will. None of us know what's stewing and brewing on the practice field or meeting rooms. Given the whiteout, Trace, 110,000 fans, and a national tv audience, there are more reasons for optimism than not.

You watched every OSU game? I watched one and they didn't pass the eye test.

 

[Howie'81]

Ohio State ran 23 more plays than Penn State did in 2016 - of course they had more yards and first downs. Time of possession is almost meaningless when it comes to its impact on a team's chances to win a given football game.

A much, much, much more important stat from that game: Ohio State averaged 4.97 yards per play, Penn State averaged 4.6 yards per play. The per-play efficiency is much more reflective of how even that game was.

Correct. And how many yards did we have on that scoop and score? Oh, that's right, 60 yards and 6 points.

 

[PSU20]

Correct. And how many yards did we have on that scoop and score? Oh, that's right, 60 yards and 6 points.

Good point. And, McSorely was running for his life all night, which wa co

Hey PSU20, do YOU know what we’re up against?????

If I'm going to offend someone, I will do it to their face!

 

[psugisher]

Ohio State ran 23 more plays than Penn State did in 2016 - of course they had more yards and first downs. Time of possession is almost meaningless when it comes to its impact on a team's chances to win a given football game.

A much, much, much more important stat from that game: Ohio State averaged 4.97 yards per play, Penn State averaged 4.6 yards per play. The per-play efficiency is much more reflective of how even that game was.

Factor in the 30 yard loss on the bad snap punt and the 13 yards lost on our 3 kneel downs at the end and the average yards per play is probably in favor of PSU. Two blocked kicks resulted in a short field and no offensive possession. Just looking at the stats makes you look stupid. PSU didn't have the ball in the 4th quarter other than the opening possession and won the quarter 17-0. OSU had to make a great play on offense to get 3 or 4 yards. Our d was fantastic that night.

On topic, both teams know what each other are going to run. The Illinois game or the TCU game are completely irrelevant. We've been preparing the first month for this game. OSU has done the same. It's the key to our seasons. It's going to be physical and there's going to be explosive plays. Nobody has a clue what will happen. I feel this will gravitate towards how the games usually are, lower scoring and one or two breaks either way will decide it. Our crowd will have an influence.

 

[CJF_Said_The_Great_Joe_Paterno]

Ohio State ran 23 more plays than Penn State did in 2016 - of course they had more yards and first downs. Time of possession is almost meaningless when it comes to its impact on a team's chances to win a given football game.

A much, much, much more important stat from that game: Ohio State averaged 4.97 yards per play, Penn State averaged 4.6 yards per play. The per-play efficiency is much more reflective of how even that game was.

Yes, very, very correct and a very astute observation - the stat you cite is probably one of the most relevant stats (ditto this same stat defensively - i.e., yards surrendered per play defensively a far more relevant stat than total yards surrendered). Many of these stats are provided in Phil Steele's CFB Preseason Magazine. One of the most relavant and predictive stats that football-dummies rarely look at, or frankly would understand, is "Yards Required Per Offensive/Defensive Point". In that regard duhO$U has averaged 11.0 YPP ("Yards Per Point") on Offense (you want this number low as possible - IOW, lower number = more points for same amount of offensive yardage). PSU has averaged 9.3 YPP through first 4 games Offensively - or significanty better than duhO$U.

Defensively, you want the diametric opposite - you want your opponent to require as much offensive yardage as possible for every point they score. In this regard, duhO$U has a Defensive YPP of 19 YPP, while PSU's equivalent number is 18 YPP - IOW, duhO$U's Defensive YPP number is very marginally better, but both defenses while much maligned, have outstanding Defensive YPP numbers relative to the average Conference, and FBS as a whole, number. IOW, while both have given up yardage at times, both Defenses are extremely underrated in that they have given up yardage, but not the most all important statistic in football, POINTS, relative to their opponents offensive success in moving the ball. What this means is that while both teams might put up quite a bit of Offensive Yardage, they may not score as many points as many are projecting as both teams have very outstanding Defensive YPP statistics. IOW, imho the smart "value play" on the O/U is the under....the over is a "trap bet" once you understand how outstanding both these teams Defensive "Yards Per Point" are.

 

[walleye38]

Another moron chimes in. When any one of you wants to give us your credentials for analyzing football then maybe I'll pay attention. You and PaoliLion sound like two jock sniffers.

And what are you credentials for calling another poster a moron

 

[sluggo72]

Yes, very, very correct and a very astute observation - the stat you cite is probably one of the most relevant stats (ditto this same stat defensively - i.e., yards surrendered per play defensively a far more relevant stat than total yards surrendered). Many of these stats are provided in Phil Steele's CFB Preseason Magazine. One of the most relavant and predictive stats that football-dummies rarely look at, or frankly would understand, is "Yards Required Per Offensive/Defensive Point". In that regard duhO$U has averaged 11.0 YPP ("Yards Per Point") on Offense (you want this number low as possible - IOW, lower number = more points for same amount of offensive yardage). PSU has averaged 9.3 YPP through first 4 games Offensively - or significanty better than duhO$U. Defensively, you want the diametric opposite - you want your opponent to require as much offensive yardage as possible for every point they score. In this regard, duhO$U has a Defensive YPP of 19 YPP, while PSU's equivalent number is 18 YPP - IOW, duhO$U's Defensive YPP number is very marginally better, but both defenses while much maligned, have outstanding Defensive YPP numbers relative to the average Conference, and FBS as a whole, number. IOW, while both have given up yardage at times, both Defenses are extremely underrated in that they have given up yardage, but not the most all important statistic in football, POINTS, relative to their opponents offensive success in moving the ball. What this means is that while both teams might put up quite a hit of Offensive Yardage, they may not score as many points as many are projecting as both teams have very outstanding Defensive YPP statistics. IOW, imho the smart "value play" on the O/U is the under....the over is a "trap bet" once you understand how outstanding both these teams Defensive "Yards Per Point" are.

Very insightful

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Yes, very, very correct and a very astute observation - the stat you cite is probably one of the most relevant stats (ditto this same stat defensively - i.e., yards surrendered per play defensively a far more relevant stat than total yards surrendered). Many of these stats are provided in Phil Steele's CFB Preseason Magazine. One of the most relavant and predictive stats that football-dummies rarely look at, or frankly would understand, is "Yards Required Per Offensive/Defensive Point". In that regard duhO$U has averaged 11.0 YPP ("Yards Per Point") on Offense (you want this number low as possible - IOW, lower number = more points for same amount of offensive yardage). PSU has averaged 9.3 YPP through first 4 games Offensively - or significanty better than duhO$U. Defensively, you want the diametric opposite - you want your opponent to require as much offensive yardage as possible for every point they score. In this regard, duhO$U has a Defensive YPP of 19 YPP, while PSU's equivalent number is 18 YPP - IOW, duhO$U's Defensive YPP number is very marginally better, but both defenses while much maligned, have outstanding Defensive YPP numbers relative to the average Conference, and FBS as a whole, number. IOW, while both have given up yardage at times, both Defenses are extremely underrated in that they have given up yardage, but not the most all important statistic in football, POINTS, relative to their opponents offensive success in moving the ball. What this means is that while both teams might put up quite a hit of Offensive Yardage, they may not score as many points as many are projecting as both teams have very outstanding Defensive YPP statistics. IOW, imho the smart "value play" on the O/U is the under....the over is a "trap bet" once you understand how outstanding both these teams Defensive "Yards Per Point" are.

Statistics tell a story only when the sample size (games played) is large and the populations (opponents) for those samples are similar in other aspects. I don't think either is true in your analysis.

People tend to use statistics to sway public opinion, but they tend not to hold to these principles. We see it all of the time among football talking heads.

 

[not so fast my friend]

Statistics tell a story only when the sample size (games played) is large and the populations (opponents) for those samples are similar in other aspects. I don't think either is true in your analysis.

People tend to use statistics to sway public opinion, but they tend not to hold to these principles. We see it all of the time among football talking heads.

I guess we are bigger underdogs and have less chance in this game than Old Dominion had last weekend.....but you're saying there's a chance????

 

[NittanyLionRoar]

Yes, very, very correct and a very astute observation - the stat you cite is probably one of the most relevant stats (ditto this same stat defensively - i.e., yards surrendered per play defensively a far more relevant stat than total yards surrendered). Many of these stats are provided in Phil Steele's CFB Preseason Magazine. One of the most relavant and predictive stats that football-dummies rarely look at, or frankly would understand, is "Yards Required Per Offensive/Defensive Point". In that regard duhO$U has averaged 11.0 YPP ("Yards Per Point") on Offense (you want this number low as possible - IOW, lower number = more points for same amount of offensive yardage). PSU has averaged 9.3 YPP through first 4 games Offensively - or significanty better than duhO$U.

Defensively, you want the diametric opposite - you want your opponent to require as much offensive yardage as possible for every point they score. In this regard, duhO$U has a Defensive YPP of 19 YPP, while PSU's equivalent number is 18 YPP - IOW, duhO$U's Defensive YPP number is very marginally better, but both defenses while much maligned, have outstanding Defensive YPP numbers relative to the average Conference, and FBS as a whole, number. IOW, while both have given up yardage at times, both Defenses are extremely underrated in that they have given up yardage, but not the most all important statistic in football, POINTS, relative to their opponents offensive success in moving the ball. What this means is that while both teams might put up quite a bit of Offensive Yardage, they may not score as many points as many are projecting as both teams have very outstanding Defensive YPP statistics. IOW, imho the smart "value play" on the O/U is the under....the over is a "trap bet" once you understand how outstanding both these teams Defensive "Yards Per Point" are.

This is so much more enlightening and enjoyable to read than when you go off ragging on other posters. I found this post great to read...stick to this and avoid attacking people.

 

[mn78psu83]

This is so much more enlightening and enjoyable to read than when you go off ragging on other posters. I found this post great to read...stick to this and avoid attacking people.

Indeed. I appreciate that he broke it up into two separate paragraphs too.

 

[mean15]

I have no expectations. I am just going to enjoy the atmosphere, and what I hope will be a game for the ages. (With the good guys coming out on top, of course.)

Remember, the last time the Lions beat the bucks, they did it as 17 point dogs

 

[psu7113]

Another moron chimes in. When any one of you wants to give us your credentials for analyzing football then maybe I'll pay attention. You and PaoliLion sound like two jock sniffers.

He lost me at “played horrendous.”

 

[berklion]

We're just lucky to be playing (in big football games again)

 

[AWS1022]

We're just lucky to be playing (in big football games again)

Hell, we’re lucky to be playing football at all...just ask a Big official.

 

[81b&w]

This is so much more enlightening and enjoyable to read than when you go off ragging on other posters. I found this post great to read...stick to this and avoid attacking people.

and the LMFAO's through out your comments really takes away from any good factual info. Do you really sit there and laugh out loud, that's really strange if true

 

[Phil's Rug]

I see one individual on this board who is excited about this weekend AND has issues ...

Just one?

 

[PennSt8er]

The best Defense PSU has is its OL and the new zero-runs-for-loss running game from Miles and Trace. If we dominate the OL war, then the good guys will own field position, time of possession, and score. And your concerns about the weaknesses in the PSU Defense will be muted.