So, here goes. Pre-seeds are out, and we can now go through the match-ups, and possible match-ups though at least a couple rounds. Each wrestler's NCAA qualification is the goal, but a benefit of a great showing is improving one's seed for NCAA's. We have 5 wrestlers that have NEVER wrestled at Big Ten's, 3 are RS Freshmen. How a wrestler performs when the lights are a little brighter and the stakes a little higher is an unknown. Having fun, and wrestling loose, is what Cael and the staff teaches and preaches, but a little anxiety and nerves are probable
and the wrestler's fortunes are wrapped up in how they deal. If history is any indication, they'll deal just fine.
125
Jordan could end up facing any unseeded wrestler in the first round or he could get a bye. Weight classes with only 8 seeds still do placement the old-fashioned way, they randomly place all unseeded guys after placing the top-8. For weight classes seeded though 14, #1 and #2 seeds get a first round bye. Jordan should get Lambert (Nebraska) in round 2. He lost to Lambert 8-5 at the Scuffle, but hopefully can turn that loss around and get a rematch against Gilman (Iowa). With only 5 auto-qualifiers at 125, he needs to get to the finals, or win 2 or 3 matches in wrestle-backs. Can't say who he'd face in wrestle-backs if he ends there. Remember he beat Youtsey only 3-2 during the regular season if it comes down to a 5th/6th place battle. Hope it doesn't come down to it, but I'm really confident he'll get an at-large bid if it comes to that.
133
Jimmy gets Shepherd (Indiana) in the 1st round, a kid he teched (20-4) during the season. He should win, and get Richards (Illinois). The two haven't wrestled this year, but did twice last year with Richards winning both. Win, and Jimmy probably gets Taylor (Wisconsin). Lose to Richards, and it's likely Jimmy will get Malone (Northwestern) in wrestle-backs. Beating Taylor, a wrestler who's been on a tear in the B1G, and he'll make the finals, where any of Dardanes, DiJulius, or Clark would be waiting the smart money being Dardanes. With 12 auto-qualifiers, Jimmy should easily earn his way to the National Tournament.
141
Kade gets Lawrence (Purdue) in round 1, a wrestler he lost to 3-2 during the regular season. Win and the prize is a date with Logan Stieber. Lose to Lawrence, and he gets a bye in the 1st round of wrestle-backs before a likely match-up with Oster (Northwestern), a wrestler he did not face. Win vs Lawrence, then lose to Logan, and he'll probably get Fisher (Michigan), a kid he beat 6-3 during the season. With 8 auto-qualifiers, and given his draw, Kade will have to win 1 match in wrestle-backs to earn his way to Nationals. Unless there's an upset (always possible), to repeat, he'll have to beat Oster or Fisher for an NCAA berth.
149
Zack has an unknown 1st round opponent, or possibly a bye. In the 2nd round, his likely opponent will be Hunter Stieber (Ohio State), who beat Zack 7-2 during the season, but only wrestled 3 bouts all year. Beat Stieber, and Zack probably gets Tsirtsis (Northwestern), a match-up I'd love to see after last year's near victory. Beating Stieber also earns a spot at Nationals, as he can't finish worse than 6th, and the B1G is taking 7. Lose to Stieber, and Zack will have to win 3 (maybe 2 if he gets a bye) bouts in wrestle-backs to earn an NCAA bid. Heaven-only-knows who he could face, given that seeding only goes to 8, and there will be a random draw for the remaining wrestlers. It should not come down to an at-large bid, but finishing outside the top-7 is not the end, as Zack will surely get one.
157
Looks like Luke gets Perrotti (Rutgers) in round 1, a wrestler he did not face. Winning earns a spot across from #1 seed Martinez a really tough match-up. So, lose to Perrotti, and after an expected bye, Luke probably gets Kelly (Iowa), who beat Luke 7-4 in an entertaining bout at the BJC. Lose his first 2 bouts, and he'll have to wait it out to go for 9th, then hope for an at-large bid...unlikely to happen given Luke's limited time at 157, as he'll meet very few of the metrics for Bronze standard. Beat Perrotti, and lose to Martinez, and he'll probably get Mascola (Maryland) after a bye in wrestle-backs. The two did not wrestle, but Cody Law beat Mascola 3-2 in the dual. My opinion is that beating Perrotti is key. I'd rather Luke face Mascola than Kelly for his berth to Nationals. Any win in wrestle-backs, and Luke earns his way.
165
Garett gets Visicaro (Rutgers) in the 1st round, whom he beat twice in 2015, but one was a MFF. The other, however, was a major 13-4, so I'm going with a Hammond win. Next would likely be Walsh (Indiana), who beat Garett 9-6 at the dual. Tough match-up, but I can't count Hammond out so a win here gets a bout with Isaac Jordan (Wisconsin) and a trip to Nationals. If the seeds hold, and Garett loses to Walsh, his likely opponent in wrestle-backs will be Sutton (Michigan), whom Garett did not face (he wrestled Massa, who moved up to 174). I'll go with Hammond here, as he earns his way to Nationals. Next round should be Moore (Iowa), whom he beat 4-2 at the Iowa dual. Win again, and he can finish no worse than 6th, lose and he'll wrestle for 7th/8th. If seeds hold, could be Wanzek, who beat Garett 8-4 in the dual.
174
Brown gets a bye in the 1st round, then meets the Welch (Purdue)/Jackson (Indiana) winner. Matt pinned both during the season, so I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Brown victory. After that, the fun begins. The 4 standing after the 2nd round will probably be Kokesh (Nebraska), Evans (Iowa), and Storley (Minnesota), along with Brown. All 4 will surely be auto-qualifiers. Regardless, they're all trying to better their NCAA Seeds, so let the games begin one more time!! On any given day, any of these 4 can win, and in the semi's it'll be Brown vs Evans, and Kokesh vs Storley. I like Matt's chances.
184
McCutcheon will be vying for one of 10 auto-qualifier slots from the 8 seed. His 1st round match-up is Rizqallah (Michigan State), a wrestler he beat handily 8-2 during the season. A repeat will earn a date with #1 Brooks (Iowa). Brooks is wrestling really well, and beat Matt 7-1 in the dual, but anything is possible, and Matt can win this match. If he does, he's easily earned his way to Nationals. Lose against Brooks, and he probably gets Kissel (Purdue) after a 1st round bye in wrestle-backs. Matt beat him 3-2 in a closely contested dual during the season. A similar result here earns a spot in St. Louis and a match-up probably vs Courts (Ohio State), who beat Matt 4-2 on a late takedown at the dual. Losing his first match in wrestle-backs isn't the end. If Matt finds himself in this position, there will be wrestle-offs to determine #9 and #10, as both qualify for Nationals. Of the bottom 4 guys, Matt has beat Pafumi (Rutgers) 10-4, and Gardner (Maryland) 17-6, but has not wrestled Sliga (Northwestern), or Irick (Indiana). Lose either of his first 2 matches in the championship bracket, and the key for Matt is to win his first bout in wrestle-backs.
197
Morgan will face the Polizzi (Northwestern) vs McDiarmid (MSU) winner in the 2nd round, after a 1st round bye. Smack did not face Polizzi, and beat McDiarmid 2-0 during the regular season. I'm going with an easy win here, which will earn an auto-qualifier spot at Nationals. Next will surely be Schiller (Minnesota), one of 5 seniors for the Gophers, who will be gunning for a championship before a year of rebuilding. Morgan beat Schiller 7-4, in a not-very-close win at Rec Hall, but Schiller is a dangerous wrestler. Still, a win here earns a spot opposite the Snyder (Ohio St) vs Burak (Iowa) winner. Burak beat Snyder 2-1 during the season, when Snyder took injury time between periods, and Burak benefitted by taking bottom twice, earning 2 escapes, and holding off Snyder's offense. I'm going Snyder, no problem, this time around, and a tough finals bout for Morgan. Snyder will be favored, as he won 6-1 during the season, but the Big Ten Finals are a different animal. We'll see.
285
Jimmy has Nash (Michigan St) in the 1st round, a wrestler that he beat 8-2 at the dual. I'll call a Lawson victory here, and a probable 2nd round match with Telford (Iowa). Telford won 3-0 at the BJC, as Jimmy struggled with his offense. This is a winnable bout, and waiting should be Medbery (Wisconsin), the #1 seed. Lose against Telford, and Jensen (Nebraska) should be waiting in wrestle-backs. The two did not wrestle in 2014-15. A win here, or a win over Telford in the championship bracket, and Jimmy punches his ticket to the NCAA's. With 9 auto-qualifiers, extra bouts will be needed to get to the 9th place bout, but odds are Jimmy will have qualified before then.
125
Jordan could end up facing any unseeded wrestler in the first round or he could get a bye. Weight classes with only 8 seeds still do placement the old-fashioned way, they randomly place all unseeded guys after placing the top-8. For weight classes seeded though 14, #1 and #2 seeds get a first round bye. Jordan should get Lambert (Nebraska) in round 2. He lost to Lambert 8-5 at the Scuffle, but hopefully can turn that loss around and get a rematch against Gilman (Iowa). With only 5 auto-qualifiers at 125, he needs to get to the finals, or win 2 or 3 matches in wrestle-backs. Can't say who he'd face in wrestle-backs if he ends there. Remember he beat Youtsey only 3-2 during the regular season if it comes down to a 5th/6th place battle. Hope it doesn't come down to it, but I'm really confident he'll get an at-large bid if it comes to that.
133
Jimmy gets Shepherd (Indiana) in the 1st round, a kid he teched (20-4) during the season. He should win, and get Richards (Illinois). The two haven't wrestled this year, but did twice last year with Richards winning both. Win, and Jimmy probably gets Taylor (Wisconsin). Lose to Richards, and it's likely Jimmy will get Malone (Northwestern) in wrestle-backs. Beating Taylor, a wrestler who's been on a tear in the B1G, and he'll make the finals, where any of Dardanes, DiJulius, or Clark would be waiting the smart money being Dardanes. With 12 auto-qualifiers, Jimmy should easily earn his way to the National Tournament.
141
Kade gets Lawrence (Purdue) in round 1, a wrestler he lost to 3-2 during the regular season. Win and the prize is a date with Logan Stieber. Lose to Lawrence, and he gets a bye in the 1st round of wrestle-backs before a likely match-up with Oster (Northwestern), a wrestler he did not face. Win vs Lawrence, then lose to Logan, and he'll probably get Fisher (Michigan), a kid he beat 6-3 during the season. With 8 auto-qualifiers, and given his draw, Kade will have to win 1 match in wrestle-backs to earn his way to Nationals. Unless there's an upset (always possible), to repeat, he'll have to beat Oster or Fisher for an NCAA berth.
149
Zack has an unknown 1st round opponent, or possibly a bye. In the 2nd round, his likely opponent will be Hunter Stieber (Ohio State), who beat Zack 7-2 during the season, but only wrestled 3 bouts all year. Beat Stieber, and Zack probably gets Tsirtsis (Northwestern), a match-up I'd love to see after last year's near victory. Beating Stieber also earns a spot at Nationals, as he can't finish worse than 6th, and the B1G is taking 7. Lose to Stieber, and Zack will have to win 3 (maybe 2 if he gets a bye) bouts in wrestle-backs to earn an NCAA bid. Heaven-only-knows who he could face, given that seeding only goes to 8, and there will be a random draw for the remaining wrestlers. It should not come down to an at-large bid, but finishing outside the top-7 is not the end, as Zack will surely get one.
157
Looks like Luke gets Perrotti (Rutgers) in round 1, a wrestler he did not face. Winning earns a spot across from #1 seed Martinez a really tough match-up. So, lose to Perrotti, and after an expected bye, Luke probably gets Kelly (Iowa), who beat Luke 7-4 in an entertaining bout at the BJC. Lose his first 2 bouts, and he'll have to wait it out to go for 9th, then hope for an at-large bid...unlikely to happen given Luke's limited time at 157, as he'll meet very few of the metrics for Bronze standard. Beat Perrotti, and lose to Martinez, and he'll probably get Mascola (Maryland) after a bye in wrestle-backs. The two did not wrestle, but Cody Law beat Mascola 3-2 in the dual. My opinion is that beating Perrotti is key. I'd rather Luke face Mascola than Kelly for his berth to Nationals. Any win in wrestle-backs, and Luke earns his way.
165
Garett gets Visicaro (Rutgers) in the 1st round, whom he beat twice in 2015, but one was a MFF. The other, however, was a major 13-4, so I'm going with a Hammond win. Next would likely be Walsh (Indiana), who beat Garett 9-6 at the dual. Tough match-up, but I can't count Hammond out so a win here gets a bout with Isaac Jordan (Wisconsin) and a trip to Nationals. If the seeds hold, and Garett loses to Walsh, his likely opponent in wrestle-backs will be Sutton (Michigan), whom Garett did not face (he wrestled Massa, who moved up to 174). I'll go with Hammond here, as he earns his way to Nationals. Next round should be Moore (Iowa), whom he beat 4-2 at the Iowa dual. Win again, and he can finish no worse than 6th, lose and he'll wrestle for 7th/8th. If seeds hold, could be Wanzek, who beat Garett 8-4 in the dual.
174
Brown gets a bye in the 1st round, then meets the Welch (Purdue)/Jackson (Indiana) winner. Matt pinned both during the season, so I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Brown victory. After that, the fun begins. The 4 standing after the 2nd round will probably be Kokesh (Nebraska), Evans (Iowa), and Storley (Minnesota), along with Brown. All 4 will surely be auto-qualifiers. Regardless, they're all trying to better their NCAA Seeds, so let the games begin one more time!! On any given day, any of these 4 can win, and in the semi's it'll be Brown vs Evans, and Kokesh vs Storley. I like Matt's chances.
184
McCutcheon will be vying for one of 10 auto-qualifier slots from the 8 seed. His 1st round match-up is Rizqallah (Michigan State), a wrestler he beat handily 8-2 during the season. A repeat will earn a date with #1 Brooks (Iowa). Brooks is wrestling really well, and beat Matt 7-1 in the dual, but anything is possible, and Matt can win this match. If he does, he's easily earned his way to Nationals. Lose against Brooks, and he probably gets Kissel (Purdue) after a 1st round bye in wrestle-backs. Matt beat him 3-2 in a closely contested dual during the season. A similar result here earns a spot in St. Louis and a match-up probably vs Courts (Ohio State), who beat Matt 4-2 on a late takedown at the dual. Losing his first match in wrestle-backs isn't the end. If Matt finds himself in this position, there will be wrestle-offs to determine #9 and #10, as both qualify for Nationals. Of the bottom 4 guys, Matt has beat Pafumi (Rutgers) 10-4, and Gardner (Maryland) 17-6, but has not wrestled Sliga (Northwestern), or Irick (Indiana). Lose either of his first 2 matches in the championship bracket, and the key for Matt is to win his first bout in wrestle-backs.
197
Morgan will face the Polizzi (Northwestern) vs McDiarmid (MSU) winner in the 2nd round, after a 1st round bye. Smack did not face Polizzi, and beat McDiarmid 2-0 during the regular season. I'm going with an easy win here, which will earn an auto-qualifier spot at Nationals. Next will surely be Schiller (Minnesota), one of 5 seniors for the Gophers, who will be gunning for a championship before a year of rebuilding. Morgan beat Schiller 7-4, in a not-very-close win at Rec Hall, but Schiller is a dangerous wrestler. Still, a win here earns a spot opposite the Snyder (Ohio St) vs Burak (Iowa) winner. Burak beat Snyder 2-1 during the season, when Snyder took injury time between periods, and Burak benefitted by taking bottom twice, earning 2 escapes, and holding off Snyder's offense. I'm going Snyder, no problem, this time around, and a tough finals bout for Morgan. Snyder will be favored, as he won 6-1 during the season, but the Big Ten Finals are a different animal. We'll see.
285
Jimmy has Nash (Michigan St) in the 1st round, a wrestler that he beat 8-2 at the dual. I'll call a Lawson victory here, and a probable 2nd round match with Telford (Iowa). Telford won 3-0 at the BJC, as Jimmy struggled with his offense. This is a winnable bout, and waiting should be Medbery (Wisconsin), the #1 seed. Lose against Telford, and Jensen (Nebraska) should be waiting in wrestle-backs. The two did not wrestle in 2014-15. A win here, or a win over Telford in the championship bracket, and Jimmy punches his ticket to the NCAA's. With 9 auto-qualifiers, extra bouts will be needed to get to the 9th place bout, but odds are Jimmy will have qualified before then.
