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Roar's Big Ten Seeding Prognostication

RoarLions1

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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The Big Ten Wrestling Championships will be held March 4-5, in Bloomington, IN. The pre-seeds should be announced on or about Monday, February 27. Expect those weight classes with 9 or more NCAA allocation slots to be pre-seeded through 14 wrestlers, while those weight classes with 8 or fewer pre-seeded to 8. Hopefully, the reason for this is obvious, but feel free to ask questions.

If there are 8 or fewer allocation slots, those 8 will be placed in the brackets, and the remaining wrestlers RANDOMLY PLACED, meaning any seeded wrestler (even #1 or #2) could have a 1st round bout. If there are more than 8 allocation slots, ALL the wrestlers will be placed in the bracket, with none placed randomly, and #’s 1 &2 get byes (#3 vs #14, #4 vs #13, #5 vs #12, etc.).

My efforts include “guessing” only the TOP-8 seeds, based mostly on all the head-to-head match-ups throughout the season. I include not just duals, but also tournament action between Big Ten wrestlers.

This is not easy. The results don’t always point to clear seeds. #1 seeds, even most of the #2, #3, and #4 seeds are obvious enough, but what do you do with (at 149) Giraldo beat Bannister, Bannister beats Barone, and Barone beats Giraldo? Transitive thinking does not apply.

The whole matter of a 14-team conference, and 9 conference duals (meaning some wrestlers don’t have the opportunity to face other guys) makes for challenging decisions when HTH bouts are not available.

And lastly, what about the guys that don’t wrestle a full season due to injury, and only have a couple Big Ten bouts. Folks, all the aforementioned challenges exist. Following is what I came up with;

125

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 7-8

#1 Thomas Gilman (Iowa)
#2 Nick Suriano (PSU)
#3 Tim Lambert (Neb)
#4 Ethan Lizak (Minn)
#5 Johnny Jimenez (Wis)
#6 Jose Rodriguez (tOSU)
#7 Conor Youtsey (Mich)
#8 Elijah Oliver (Ind)

Gilman is an obvious #1, having beaten Suriano, Lambert 2x (@ Midlands and in a dual), Lizak, Rodriguez and others. Like-wise, Nick is a solid #2, only losing to Gilman, and also beating Lambert, Lizak and Rodriguez. My #3 is Lambert, which was a close call until Lizak lost to Rodriguez in their last dual. Still, Lizak split with Lambert in their 2 matches, so despite the Rodriguez loss, Lizak stays at #4 for me. The remaining 4 seeds were tough to call. Youtsey came out of retirement late in the season, and Rodriguez crashed and burned late with a 5-dual losing streak until beating Lizak. Jimenez and Oliver may have earned the Big Ten a slot at NCAA’s, and could be seeded anywhere from 5-8. Jimenez is my #5 based on a Major vs Rodriguez, followed by #6 Rodriguez…again, who beat Lizak on Sunday. Youtsey is my #7, though he’s only 2-2 in the Big Ten, but the big win in their last dual vs Jimenez could move him up. #8 is Oliver, though it’s tenuous with a last-dual loss to Piotrowski (Ill), but his only other losses were Gilman and Lambert. I could see 5-8 moving around some because of few matches for some of the guys, and no great wins for any of the guys (maybe the Jimenez win over Rodriguez is a good win). One thing to remember here…a hot Conor Youtsey could steal a spot from a wrestler that earned allocation from the NCAA, as he won’t have the requisite 8 bouts to be a Silver Standard wrestler. If that happens, a guy could be waiting for the at-large berths.

133

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 8-9

#1 Nathan Tomasello (tOSU)
#2 Eric Montoya (Neb)
#3 Cory Clark (Iowa)
#4 Zane Richards (Ill)
#5 Steve Micic (Mich)
#6 Luke Welch (Pur)
#7 Mitch McKee ( Minn)
#8 Scott Delvecchio (Rut)

My #1 is Tomasello, the only guy undefeated against Big Ten wrestlers, and in fact, he’s undefeated against all wrestlers. Montoya is my#2, after a late-season win against Clark, who comes in as my #3. Richards earned #4 with a HTH win over #5 Micic, though Micic did beat Montoya earlier in the season. Welch is my #6, on the strength of a HTH win vs McKee, who is my #7. Rounding out the top 8 is Delvecchio, who gets the nod over Stickley (Wis). Both Stickley and Eicher (MSU) could make some noise in the Big Ten Championship, and if the conference does get 9 slots, could be fighting for a golden ticket to NCAA’s.

141

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 8

#1 Anthony Ashnault (Rut)
#2 Jimmy Gulibon (PSU)
#3 Thomas Thorn (Minn)
#4 Luke Pletcher (tOSU)
#5 Topher Carton (Iowa)
#6 Colton McCrystal (Neb)
#7 Javier Gasca (MSU)
#8 Cole Martin (Wis)

Ashnault is the easy #1, winning all of his Big Ten Duals. The next 5 were fun…I had them all figured out, then McCrystal lost his last 2 bouts to Pletcher and Carton. Jimmy becomes my #2, on the strength of wins over Pletcher, Carton and Thorn. Thorn’s win over Pletcher in his last B1G dual secures a #3 seed for me, followed by Pletcher at #4, on the strength of wins over Carton and McCrystal. Cartons HTH win over McCrystal gets him the #6 seed, which dropped McCrystal all the way from my original #2 prior to the tOSU dual. Gasca earns #7 with no bad losses and steady wins, same for #8 Martin. Of note, I could actually see McCrystal getting a #4 seed, as he has a better W-L record than #4 and #5. The 2 late losses to the 2 guys just in front of him sealed it for me though, so I’ll stick with the seeds above.

149

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 6-7

#1 Zain Retherford (PSU)
#2 Brandon Sorensen (Iowa)
#3 Micah Jordan (tOSU)
#4 Alfred Bannister (MD)
#5 Kenny Theobold (Rut)
#6 Eric Barone (Ill)
#7 Andrew Crone (Wis)
#8

Another easy #1, with Retherford being the top dog in Bloomington. An easy #2 as well, with Sorensen owning a 2-0 win against #3 Jordan, who only lost to my top-2 seeds. Bannister is my #4, with wins over Barone and Theobold, though he’s lost twice (dual & Midlands) to Giraldo. Theobold is my #5, with no great wins, but only losing to Retherford, Jordan and Bannister. Barone is very close behind and could switch with Theobold, only losing to the same 3 guys so he’s my #6. Crone beat the guys he should, and only lost to the top-3 seeds, so he’s my #7.

157

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 8

#1 Jason Nolf (PSU)
#2 Michael Kemerer (Iowa)
#3 Tyler Berger (Neb)
#4 Kyle Langenderfer (Ill)
#5 Brian Murphy (Mich)
#6 Jake Short (Minn)
#7 John Van Brill (Rut)
#8 Timothy Ruschell (Wis)

Jason easily outdistances all others for #1, as he’s beaten #2 and #3 handily. Kemerer (one “m”, everyone) is easily #2, with a couple wins over #3 Berger, one at Midlands and again at their dual late in the season. Berger beat Short and Murphy, so he’s an easy #3. Here’s where it gets fun, as a bunch of guys (Short, Murphy, Langenderfer, Ruschell and Van Brill) beat up on each other, so they’re all going to be in the #4 to #8 range for me. My pick for #4 is Langenderfer, with only the Nolf and Van Brill losses and a win over Murphy. #5 is Murphy, but by the slimmest of margins, as he’s beaten both Van Brill and Ruschell, while losing to Short. I threw the remaining 3 in a hat, and it came out Short, Van Brill, Ruschell.

165 through 285 to follow, hopefully by Tuesday. That will be followed by a team score review.
 
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pish69 said:
Good job Roar. One obvious mistake. You have 2 Rutgers guys at 149. It's going to be Theobold. Giraldo wont be wrestling in post season
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Will change tomorrow...early morning so I'm heading to lala land. And thanks!! Wanted to get this out....
 
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Great analysis Roar. With the 9 match schedule, and so many guys not wrestling, it's so difficult to project. Gulibon is the only one of our guys in the first 5 weights who I think could move some, although I hope he stays right where you have him!
 
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At 133, I think you missed Rappo (Maryland), 6-3 in conference duals with one of the losses to Ashnault at 141. The other two losses are Micic and Tomasello. Wins over Welch and Delvecchio. @RoarLions1
 
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I didn't realize McCrystal lost twice this weekend. Jimmy should be 2, hopefully he gets to the final! First up is Heil though.
 
greenmanRD said:
I didn't realize McCrystal lost twice this weekend. Jimmy should be 2, hopefully he gets to the final! First up is Heil though.
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but JG lost the h2h convincingly so I dont think he has a case for #2.
 
greenmanRD said:
He did but he also beat everyone else apart from Ashnault. He's also on a 6 match win streak. I think a compelling case can be made.
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He has some pretty bad loses on his resume if the h2h doesnt settle the debate.
 
greenmanRD said:
True. They are all outside of B1G conference though. How much should those impact Big Ten seeding?
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My opinion is H2h matters a lot, especially as convincing as it was. But say its tied after Big record and H2h, then what else do you go by but your seasonal resume?

Returning big finalist maybe. Returning AA from 3 years ago doubtful.

#2 seed would be great for minidset heading into the tourney, but I personally would be hard pressed to make the case for JG.
 
dunkej01 said:
My opinion is H2h matters a lot, especially as convincing as it was. But say its tied after Big record and H2h, then what else do you go by but your seasonal resume?

Returning big finalist maybe. Returning AA from 3 years ago doubtful.

#2 seed would be great for minidset heading into the tourney, but I personally would be hard pressed to make the case for JG.
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Yea, I get your point. I'm just being a homer. :)
 
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dicemen99 said:
At 133, I think you missed Rappo (Maryland), 6-3 in conference duals with one of the losses to Ashnault at 141. The other two losses are Micic and Tomasello. Wins over Welch and Delvecchio. @RoarLions1
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That would make Rappo 6-2 in duals, because matches at other weights don't count for seeding purposes.
 
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dunkej01 said:
but JG lost the h2h convincingly so I dont think he has a case for #2.
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Just curious...how does that work? Put Jimmy behind McCrystal because of HTH, yet put McCrystal behind Carton and Pletcher because he lost HTH, and oh by the way, Jimmy goes in front of Pletcher and Carton because he won HTH. Can't get there from here looking at one match at a time to make the call.

The B1G will make the seedings known...just saying...McCrystal losing to Carton and Pletcher, and not wrestling Ashnault doesn't build the no-brainer case for placing him in front of Gulibon...who's built a nice resume imo.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
Just curious...how does that work? Put Jimmy behind McCrystal because of HTH, yet put McCrystal behind Carton and Pletcher because he lost HTH, and oh by the way, Jimmy goes in front of Pletcher and Carton because he won HTH. Can't get there from here looking at one match at a time to make the call.

The B1G will make the seedings known...just saying...McCrystal losing to Carton and Pletcher, and not wrestling Ashnault doesn't build the no-brainer case for placing him in front of Gulibon...who's built a nice resume imo.
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IIRC Jimmy, McChrystal, and Thorn each have 2 conference losses. Pletcher and Carton both have 3, so they're out of the top 4.

H2H, McChrystal beat Jimmy and Thorn, so he's the 2, Jimmy 3 (for beating Thorn), Thorn 4.
 
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El-Jefe said:
IIRC Jimmy, McChrystal, and Thorn each have 2 conference losses. Pletcher and Carton both have 3, so they're out of the top 4.

H2H, McChrystal beat Jimmy and Thorn, so he's the 2, Jimmy 3 (for beating Thorn), Thorn 4.
Click to expand...

What he said.
 
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Thanks Roar great job as always. I agree with Jimmy at #2. Bad week for McCrystal, I could see him at 3 or 4.
 
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Jimmy can beat anyone at the tourney with maybe the exception of Ashnault, so there is probably a minimal difference between a 2 and 3 seed for him. Just being on the opposite side of Ashnault would be a good draw in my opinion. And, as El-Jefe so astutely pointed out, there is virtually no chance of JG being the 4 seed or below.
 
Reslo said:
Jimmy can beat anyone at the tourney with maybe the exception of Ashnault, so there is probably a minimal difference between a 2 and 3 seed for him. Just being on the opposite side of Ashnault would be a good draw in my opinion. And, as El-Jefe so astutely pointed out, there is virtually no chance of JG being the 4 seed or below.
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Jimmy can beat anyone if he wrestles the way he is right now.
 
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El-Jefe said:
IIRC Jimmy, McChrystal, and Thorn each have 2 conference losses. Pletcher and Carton both have 3, so they're out of the top 4.

H2H, McChrystal beat Jimmy and Thorn, so he's the 2, Jimmy 3 (for beating Thorn), Thorn 4.
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You are absolutely dead-on with your numbers, and I can live with that, or frankly anything the committee decides. Jimmy will, imo, earn his way to NCAA's, so #2, #3 or #4 is ok by me. All can be supported, imo.

So everyone see's the "ounce of logic" in my thinking, here's at the very least, an explanation. At 141, the 9-conference-duals thing got in the way for me. Of the guys 2-6, all except Thorn got in 9 duals, so that's a good thing for comparison sake. Jimmy and Luke were the only 2 that wrestled all of the other 5 in the top-6. McCrystal, Thorn and Carton did not get Ashnault...which they benefitted from...iow, an easier schedule. Not the wrestler's fault, they can only tackle the guy in front of them...Jimmy had the tougher schedule, that's all.

Doesn't hold up for Thorn at #3...so he should move down. Oh, and I doubt the committee uses any of this...it's a level below their radar.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
The Big Ten Wrestling Championships will be held March 4-5, in Bloomington, IN. The pre-seeds should be announced on or about Monday, February 27. Expect those weight classes with 9 or more NCAA allocation slots to be pre-seeded through 14 wrestlers, while those weight classes with 8 or fewer pre-seeded to 8. Hopefully, the reason for this is obvious, but feel free to ask questions.

If there are 8 or fewer allocation slots, those 8 will be placed in the brackets, and the remaining wrestlers RANDOMLY PLACED, meaning any seeded wrestler (even #1 or #2) could have a 1st round bout. If there are more than 8 allocation slots, ALL the wrestlers will be placed in the bracket, with none placed randomly, and #’s 1 &2 get byes (#3 vs #14, #4 vs #13, #5 vs #12, etc.).

My efforts include “guessing” only the TOP-8 seeds, based mostly on all the head-to-head match-ups throughout the season. I include not just duals, but also tournament action between Big Ten wrestlers.

This is not easy. The results don’t always point to clear seeds. #1 seeds, even most of the #2, #3, and #4 seeds are obvious enough, but what do you do with (at 149) Giraldo beat Bannister, Bannister beats Barone, and Barone beats Giraldo? Transitive thinking does not apply.

The whole matter of a 14-team conference, and 9 conference duals (meaning some wrestlers don’t have the opportunity to face other guys) makes for challenging decisions when HTH bouts are not available.

And lastly, what about the guys that don’t wrestle a full season due to injury, and only have a couple Big Ten bouts. Folks, all the aforementioned challenges exist. Following is what I came up with;

125

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 7-8

#1 Thomas Gilman (Iowa)
#2 Nick Suriano (PSU)
#3 Tim Lambert (Neb)
#4 Ethan Lizak (Minn)
#5 Johnny Jimenez (Wis)
#6 Jose Rodriguez (tOSU)
#7 Conor Youtsey (Mich)
#8 Elijah Oliver (Ind)

Gilman is an obvious #1, having beaten Suriano, Lambert 2x (@ Midlands and in a dual), Lizak, Rodriguez and others. Like-wise, Nick is a solid #2, only losing to Gilman, and also beating Lambert, Lizak and Rodriguez. My #3 is Lambert, which was a close call until Lizak lost to Rodriguez in their last dual. Still, Lizak split with Lambert in their 2 matches, so despite the Rodriguez loss, Lizak stays at #4 for me. The remaining 4 seeds were tough to call. Youtsey came out of retirement late in the season, and Rodriguez crashed and burned late with a 5-dual losing streak until beating Lizak. Jimenez and Oliver may have earned the Big Ten a slot at NCAA’s, and could be seeded anywhere from 5-8. Jimenez is my #5 based on a Major vs Rodriguez, followed by #6 Rodriguez…again, who beat Lizak on Sunday. Youtsey is my #7, though he’s only 2-2 in the Big Ten, but the big win in their last dual vs Jimenez could move him up. #8 is Oliver, though it’s tenuous with a last-dual loss to Piotrowski (Ill), but his only other losses were Gilman and Lambert. I could see 5-8 moving around some because of few matches for some of the guys, and no great wins for any of the guys (maybe the Jimenez win over Rodriguez is a good win). One thing to remember here…a hot Conor Youtsey could steal a spot from a wrestler that earned allocation from the NCAA, as he won’t have the requisite 8 bouts to be a Silver Standard wrestler. If that happens, a guy could be waiting for the at-large berths.

133

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 8-9

#1 Nathan Tomasello (tOSU)
#2 Eric Montoya (Neb)
#3 Cory Clark (Iowa)
#4 Zane Richards (Ill)
#5 Steve Micic (Mich)
#6 Luke Welch (Pur)
#7 Mitch McKee ( Minn)
#8 Scott Delvecchio (Rut)

My #1 is Tomasello, the only guy undefeated against Big Ten wrestlers, and in fact, he’s undefeated against all wrestlers. Montoya is my#2, after a late-season win against Clark, who comes in as my #3. Richards earned #4 with a HTH win over #5 Micic, though Micic did beat Montoya earlier in the season. Welch is my #6, on the strength of a HTH win vs McKee, who is my #7. Rounding out the top 8 is Delvecchio, who gets the nod over Stickley (Wis). Both Stickley and Eicher (MSU) could make some noise in the Big Ten Championship, and if the conference does get 9 slots, could be fighting for a golden ticket to NCAA’s.

141

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 8

#1 Anthony Ashnault (Rut)
#2 Jimmy Gulibon (PSU)
#3 Thomas Thorn (Minn)
#4 Luke Pletcher (tOSU)
#5 Topher Carton (Iowa)
#6 Colton McCrystal (Neb)
#7 Javier Gasca (MSU)
#8 Cole Martin (Wis)

Ashnault is the easy #1, winning all of his Big Ten Duals. The next 5 were fun…I had them all figured out, then McCrystal lost his last 2 bouts to Pletcher and Carton. Jimmy becomes my #2, on the strength of wins over Pletcher, Carton and Thorn. Thorn’s win over Pletcher in his last B1G dual secures a #3 seed for me, followed by Pletcher at #4, on the strength of wins over Carton and McCrystal. Cartons HTH win over McCrystal gets him the #6 seed, which dropped McCrystal all the way from my original #2 prior to the tOSU dual. Gasca earns #7 with no bad losses and steady wins, same for #8 Martin. Of note, I could actually see McCrystal getting a #4 seed, as he has a better W-L record than #4 and #5. The 2 late losses to the 2 guys just in front of him sealed it for me though, so I’ll stick with the seeds above.

149

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 6-7

#1 Zain Retherford (PSU)
#2 Brandon Sorensen (Iowa)
#3 Micah Jordan (tOSU)
#4 Alfred Bannister (MD)
#5 Kenny Theobold (Rut)
#6 Eric Barone (Ill)
#7 Andrew Crone (Wis)
#8

Another easy #1, with Retherford being the top dog in Bloomington. An easy #2 as well, with Sorensen owning a 2-0 win against #3 Jordan, who only lost to my top-2 seeds. Bannister is my #4, with wins over Barone and Theobold, though he’s lost twice (dual & Midlands) to Giraldo. Theobold is my #5, with no great wins, but only losing to Retherford, Jordan and Bannister. Barone is very close behind and could switch with Theobold, only losing to the same 3 guys so he’s my #6. Crone beat the guys he should, and only lost to the top-3 seeds, so he’s my #7.

157

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 8

#1 Jason Nolf (PSU)
#2 Michael Kemerer (Iowa)
#3 Tyler Berger (Neb)
#4 Kyle Langenderfer (Ill)
#5 Brian Murphy (Mich)
#6 Jake Short (Minn)
#7 John Van Brill (Rut)
#8 Timothy Ruschell (Wis)

Jason easily outdistances all others for #1, as he’s beaten #2 and #3 handily. Kemerer (one “m”, everyone) is easily #2, with a couple wins over #3 Berger, one at Midlands and again at their dual late in the season. Berger beat Short and Murphy, so he’s an easy #3. Here’s where it gets fun, as a bunch of guys (Short, Murphy, Langenderfer, Ruschell and Van Brill) beat up on each other, so they’re all going to be in the #4 to #8 range for me. My pick for #4 is Langenderfer, with only the Nolf and Van Brill losses and a win over Murphy. #5 is Murphy, but by the slimmest of margins, as he’s beaten both Van Brill and Ruschell, while losing to Short. I threw the remaining 3 in a hat, and it came out Short, Van Brill, Ruschell.

165 through 285 to follow, hopefully by Tuesday. That will be followed by a team score review.
Click to expand...
i havent even started reading yet and already want to thank you for the effort. looking forward to when i have more time to absorb.
 
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165

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 7-8

#1 Isaiah Martinez (Ill)
#2 Logan Massa (Mich)
#3 Isaac Jordan (Wis)
#4 Vincenzo Joseph (PSU)
#5 Joey Gunther (Iowa)
#6 Nick Wanzek (Minn)
#7 Johnny Sebastian (NU)
#8 Drew Hughes (MSU)

The top-4 guys in the Big Ten are also the top-4 guys in the country, and they made the seeding easy for me and surely the conference. Martinez is undefeated and beat the other 3. Massa beat Jordan, and lost to Martinez, and Jordan lost to the top-2 guys, but beat Joseph. Gets a little dicey after that, but not as bad as other weight classes. #5 Gunther beat Wanzek and Burcher, but lost at Midlands to Williams (Neb), who’s not top-8. Still, the 2 good wins gets him my #5, followed by #6 Wanzek. Wanzek beat Burcher, and lost to Gunther (tOSU), and his best win was at 174 vs Amine (Mich) before dropping to 165. Solid resume, though the HTH loss vs Gunther sealed #6 for him. Sebastian comes in at #7, with a 5-3 B1G season with no great wins. #8 could be any of 3 guys, Hughes (MSU), Martin (Ind), or Burcher (tOSU). I went Hughes, based on 2 wins, vs Sabastian and Burcher.

174

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 9

#1 Bo Jordan (tOSU)
#2 Mark Hall (PSU)
#3 Zac Brunson (Ill)
#4 Myles Amine (Mich)
#5 Alex Meyer (Iowa)
#6 Jordan Pagano (Rut)
#7 Jacob Morrissey (Pur)
#8 Devin Skatzka (Ind)

What a mess. Not getting into any “ducking” conspiracy. I’ll leave that to those among you that enjoy such stuff. At 5-0 in his Big Ten duals, I went with Jordan. Hall is #2, with his best win vs Brunson, and he also lost to Meyer, which eliminated any chance for a #1 seed. The HTH loss vs Hall delegates Brunson to #3. I should note here that it was his only Big Ten loss, going 8-1. Amine rounds out the top 4, with a win over Meyer, and his only losses to Brunson and Wanzek, though Wanzek has moved down to 165. Meyer is my #5. He beat Hall, but lost to Jordan and Amine in duals, and Brunson at Midlands. Pagano sneaks in at #6, despite being below Skatzka and Barnes in the Coaches Rankings, simply because his Big Ten results were better. Flip a coin for #’s 7 and 8, though a HTH victory vs Skatzka gives Morrissey the nod from me.

184

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 9

#1 Bo Nickal (PSU)
#2 Nate Jackson (Ind)
#3 Sammy Brooks (Iowa)
#4 Myles Martin (tOSU)
#5 T.J. Dudley (Neb)
#6 Emery Parker (Ill)
#7 Nicholas Gravina (Rut)
#8 Mitch Sliga (MSU) and Hunter Ritter (Wis)

Thank goodness #1 was easy, as the next few slots were made far more difficult after Martin’s win vs Dudley last weekend. My #2 is Jackson, whose only 2 losses on the year (not just B1G) were at Midlands, but both were to B1G guys, Brooks and Dudley. He also beat Brooks in the same tourney. Still, undefeated in B1G duals is worth something, despite not having to face the best in the conference. Brooks, with only a Big Ten dual loss to Nickal, and splitting with Jackson at Midlands earns #3. He also beat Martin. A solid #4 is Martin, with dual meet losses to Nickal and Brooks, but the great win vs Dudley, who comes in at #5. Could the conference seed Dudley higher? Yep!! He only lost to Nickal and Martin, and had a Midlands win vs Jackson. We’ll see. He is a returning NCAA finalist, and a human component does seep into the seeding. My #6 is Parker, who beat everyone except 3 of the guys in front of him (Nickal, Martin, and Dudley at Midlands) for a solid yet unspectacular Big Ten season. Gravina lost to Parker HTH, and really didn’t beat anyone of consequence, so with 4 Big Ten wins, gets #7. Tied for #8, as there is no separation between them is Sliga and Ritter.

197

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 6-7

#1 Brett Pfarr (Minn)
#2 Kollin Moore (tOSU)
#3 Aaron Studebaker (Neb)
#4 Matt McCutcheon (PSU)
#5 Ricky Robertson (Rut)
#6 Cashe Wilcke (Ill)
#7 Jackson Striggow (Mich)
#8 Jacob Berkowitz (NU)

Along with 285, 197 is a weak weight class for the Big Ten on the national front, and both may only have 6 Qualifier Allocation slots. The seeding process at 197 is among the easiest however. A Big Ten-undefeated Pfarr leads the way, with Moore #2 on the strength of a HTH win vs #3 Studebaker, and only one dual loss…to Pfarr. McCutcheon is #4, losing only to the 3 guys in front of him. Robertson lands at #5, despite a bad loss to Brunner, as he owns wins against Wilcke and Berkowitz, both at Midlands. Wilcke is #6, with a HTH win against #7 Striggow, who gets his seed with a HTH win against Berkowitz, and Berkowitz gets #8 with 6 Big Ten wins, though all are against the bottom half of the conference’s wrestlers...another example of my seeding not based on just a guys record.

285

Expected NCAA Allocation Slots: 5-6

#1 Kyle Snyder (tOSU)
#2 Connor Medbery (Wis)
#3 Nick Nevills (PSU)
#4 Michael Kroells (Minn)
#5 Brooks Black (Ill)
#6 Collin Jensen (Neb)
#7 Youssef Hermida (MD)
#8 Razohnn Gross (Rut)

Two undefeated wrestlers stand alone at the top of this weight class. I’m giving the 5-0 guy the #1 seed over the 8-0 guy, so Snyder #1, and Medbery #2. Nevills is an easy #3, with wins over Kroells, Jensen, and Black. Kroells only lost to Medbery and Nevills, so he’s #4. Close call between #5 and #6, which is a perfect example of the challenges in seeding. Black is 5-1, with his only loss against Nevills. Jensen is 4-4, but the losses are against my #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds. Black didn’t wrestle 3 of those guys. Called it a draw, so flipped a coin and gave #6 to Jensen. Hermida is my #7, with a respectable Big Ten season, and a win over Jennings (NU), who would be my #9 if I went that far. Gross also beat Jennings, and ended up with a really good record (5-1), but “0” good wins.
 
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I hesitate using my seedings for an early look at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships predicted point totals...but what the heck, here goes. The last couple years, these seedings held just as well as the Big Ten Committee.

Placement and Advancement ONLY
PSU 137.5
tOSU 115.5
Iowa 101
Ill 87.5
Neb 77.5
Minn 76
Rut 65
Mich 55.5
Wis 55.5
Ind 24
MD 17
Pur 13.5
MSU 10
NU 10
 
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PSU Mike said:
Fair enough. I've always struggled with the "Lloyd Carr" logic personally though. McCrystal doesn't get penalized for losing to lesser competition b/c he beat better guys. Lloyd used to do just that.
Click to expand...
If you punish McCrystal for losing to lesser competition, by definition you'd be rewarding at least 1 or 2 guys who lost to him H2H with the same # of total conference losses.

The argument that makes more sense is recency: McChrystal's losses occuring closer to the postseason could indicate he's less likely to succeed at B10s (NCAA hoops tournament uses Last 10 Games as a criterion for exactly this reason). Under this theory, Jimmy's losses were earlier in the year and thus less relevant. If Jimmy beat Heil, even though it's non-conference, that would add some heft to the recency case.
 
El-Jefe said:
If you punish McCrystal for losing to lesser competition, by definition you'd be rewarding at least 1 or 2 guys who lost to him H2H with the same # of total conference losses.

The argument that makes more sense is recency: McChrystal's losses occuring closer to the postseason could indicate he's less likely to succeed at B10s (NCAA hoops tournament uses Last 10 Games as a criterion for exactly this reason). Under this theory, Jimmy's losses were earlier in the year and thus less relevant. If Jimmy beat Heil, even though it's non-conference, that would add some heft to the recency case.
Click to expand...
what he said
 
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