Classic problem in voting theory - the dang thing cycles.
I have no issue with Billy (oops, he's not earned a nickname) being #2.
I have no issue with Billy (oops, he's not earned a nickname) being #2.
Roar's Big Ten Seeding Prognostication
- Thread starter RoarLions1
- Start date
Great analysis, Roar. Thanks for putting this together for us.
Can't wait for the tourney!
Can't wait for the tourney!
Big Ten Wrestling Championships are, to me, as much or more fun than the National Tourney. Our fans are all together in one section, we're closer to the mats, and most important, the wrestling is almost as good as NCAA's. If the current cycle continues, next year is East Lansing, followed by Minneapolis/St. Paul, then back at Penn State. The ultimate PRIZE is not in play, but it is a step in the process, and as stated, the wrestling is awesome.
No doubt the seedings won't match mine in this thread, so I'll say that up front. Doesn't stop me from looking ahead, using the calculated guesses in this thread, and pointing out the more compelling bout possibilities. All matches will be good, these just stand out to me...you may have your own.
125: Semifinal: Gilman vs Lizak, a re-match of the great bout of 2 weeks ago.
Quarterfinal: Suriano vs Youtsey (new guy vs seasoned veteran looking to hit his stride).
133: Both semifinals: Tomasello vs Richards, and Montoya vs Clark. Wonder if we'll get to see Tomasello vs Clark?
141: All of Jimmy's matches. He's always wrestled Gasca close, has a win vs Thorn, and never beat Ashnault. Should be fun.
149: Final: Zain vs Sorensen
157: Semifinal: Kemerer vs Berger, round 3.
165: All semifinal and final bouts: These 4 guys are also #1, #2, #3, and #4 in the NATION.
174: Final: Bo vs Mark.
184: All semifinals & finals: Bo may have separated himself, but the other 4 guys (seeded 2-5) are very close.
197: All Matt's matches: He wrestles close bouts...
285: Finals: Snyder vs Medbery, can Snyder major him?
No doubt the seedings won't match mine in this thread, so I'll say that up front. Doesn't stop me from looking ahead, using the calculated guesses in this thread, and pointing out the more compelling bout possibilities. All matches will be good, these just stand out to me...you may have your own.
125: Semifinal: Gilman vs Lizak, a re-match of the great bout of 2 weeks ago.
Quarterfinal: Suriano vs Youtsey (new guy vs seasoned veteran looking to hit his stride).
133: Both semifinals: Tomasello vs Richards, and Montoya vs Clark. Wonder if we'll get to see Tomasello vs Clark?
141: All of Jimmy's matches. He's always wrestled Gasca close, has a win vs Thorn, and never beat Ashnault. Should be fun.
149: Final: Zain vs Sorensen
157: Semifinal: Kemerer vs Berger, round 3.
165: All semifinal and final bouts: These 4 guys are also #1, #2, #3, and #4 in the NATION.
174: Final: Bo vs Mark.
184: All semifinals & finals: Bo may have separated himself, but the other 4 guys (seeded 2-5) are very close.
197: All Matt's matches: He wrestles close bouts...
285: Finals: Snyder vs Medbery, can Snyder major him?
Roar, great work as always. I always enjoy your projections (and even took some time to put my own predictions out there).
I like your highlighted matches above but would add Suriano v. Gilman, finals at 125, and Nevills v. Medberry semis at 285. I'm not conceding Medberry to finals. I think Nick could win.
Hard not to expect at least 5 finalists (Suriano, Retherford, Nolf, Hall and Nickal) and good chance up to 8. I like Gulibon's chances to reach finals again this year and think the good guys get at least one of the IMAR/Joseph and Medberry/Nevills match-ups.
Three extra thoughts:
Is it better to get IMAR in semis since he will have to weigh in again? Seemed like maybe an issue last year but less so this year.
Can Joseph get the 2 or 3 seed at Nationals? He'd need to beat Rogers Sunday and then finish at least top 3 at Big Tens. I'd think a win over Rogers plus one over IMAR would get a 3 seed over whomever takes fourth at Big 10s. Would a 3rd place finish with a win over Isaac Jordan for 3rd do the same?
Can Nevills get a 2 or 3 seed at Nationals if he wins Sunday and then beats Medberry in semis?
I like your highlighted matches above but would add Suriano v. Gilman, finals at 125, and Nevills v. Medberry semis at 285. I'm not conceding Medberry to finals. I think Nick could win.
Hard not to expect at least 5 finalists (Suriano, Retherford, Nolf, Hall and Nickal) and good chance up to 8. I like Gulibon's chances to reach finals again this year and think the good guys get at least one of the IMAR/Joseph and Medberry/Nevills match-ups.
Three extra thoughts:
Is it better to get IMAR in semis since he will have to weigh in again? Seemed like maybe an issue last year but less so this year.
Can Joseph get the 2 or 3 seed at Nationals? He'd need to beat Rogers Sunday and then finish at least top 3 at Big Tens. I'd think a win over Rogers plus one over IMAR would get a 3 seed over whomever takes fourth at Big 10s. Would a 3rd place finish with a win over Isaac Jordan for 3rd do the same?
Can Nevills get a 2 or 3 seed at Nationals if he wins Sunday and then beats Medberry in semis?
Everyone is right. And I hope you're all in discussion mode, and not something else.
I tried not to punish McCrystal, nor did I want to punish Jimmy. This year, I used each guys B1G record less than I ever have. Instead, I looked at who they wrestled (HTH), good wins, and bad losses. In a vacuum, Jimmy's loss to McCrystal is the ultimate tie-breaker -- advantage Colton. No problem at all with that.
My dilemma happened when I looked at the bigger picture. There were 2 circular facts;
McCrystal beat Gulibon, Gulibon beat Pletcher, and Pletcher beat McCrystal...and...
McCrystal beat Gulibon, Gulibon beat Carton, and Carton beat McCrystal.
If HTH were the only criteria, we can't get there from here.
Another consideration was who they wrestled. Should Jimmy and Pletcher be penalized for losing to the #1 seed, and McCrystal and Carton benefit. I made the call that they shouldn't.
And lastly, I hope both you gentlemen take this post in the way it was intended.
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Discussion mode is good. It's all theoretical until the actual seeds come out.
I think it comes down to: how does one weigh H2H? If it's primary, everything above makes sense.
If H2H is a tie-breaker, then the competing circular arguments don't matter as much (because Pletcher and Carton aren't in the same tier as Jimmy and McCrystal and Thorn).
Also how much intra-conference schedule matters. If more, then the circular argument for Pletcher comes back into play to some extent (but less so for Carton -- he has 3 losses AND didn't face Ashnault).
This is one case where the final seeding could come down to the lobbying at the coaches' committee, and what games are played to optimize wrestlers' draws and/or attempt to affect the team race.
