The Southern Scuffle, along with the Midlands, are the premier holiday tournaments. This year’s Scuffle boasts 66 top-20 wrestlers, including 7 #1’s, along with a ton of talented redshirts. Among those redshirts are freshman Vincenzo Joseph from Penn State, and Fredy Stroker (Minnesota), Larry Early (Minnesota), Joe Smith (Oklahoma State), Broc Berge (Minnesota), and Andrew Marsden (Oklahoma State), among others. Also, Jered Cortez (PSU) is wrestling unattached as he is ineligible in 2015-16 due to Big Ten transfer rules. Several of these unattached wrestlers will surely be seeded at the Scuffle, and will be mentioned, but most will be by educated guess only.
Pre-seeds have historically been announced the day before the tournament, or December 31st. This review is written prior to pre-seeding, so there’s much guesswork involved. I used InterMat’s rankings as a baseline, and probably won’t have time to redo this once the seeds are announced. Good luck and good health to all the wrestlers, and safe travels for all fans that are attending.
125
Penn State: Nico Megaludis, Ken Yanovich
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Nico Megaludis (PSU)
#2 – Eddie Klimara (OSU)
#3 – Zeke Moisey (WVU)
#4 – Darian Cruz (Lehigh)
#5 – Drew Templeton (Wyo)
#6 – Dalton Macri (Cornell)
#7 – Connor Schram (Stanford)
#8 – Sean Russell (Edinboro)
#9 – Brent Fleetwood (Central Mich)
#10 – Skyler Perry (Minn)
#11 – Ethan Lizak (Minn)
#12 - ??
With 38 wrestlers in the field, Nico has about a 1 in 3 chance of having a pigtail bout. Same with Yanovich. I would love to see Ken have a great tournament, but since he’s likely to be unseeded, and we don’t know his path, I’ll focus on Nico. Nico could and should rack up bonus point victories through the semi-finals. He’s likely to face a Russell (Edinboro) or Fleetwood (Central Mich) or Petry (Minnesota) level guy in the R8, and a Cruz (Lehigh) or Templeton (Wyoming) level wrestler in the semi’s. Assuming they are all wins, the likely finals opponent should be the winner of the Klimara (Oklahoma St) v Moisey (WVU) bout. Nico has wins (2013-14) vs Cruz (18-3) and Klimara (6-0, and 11-7), but hasn’t wrestled the other top guys. I’ll go with Nico as the Scuffle champ at 125.
133
Penn State: Jordan Conaway, Jered Cortez
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Nashon Garrett (Cornell)
#2 – George DiCamillo (Virginia)
#3 – Jordan Conaway (PSU)
#4 – Kaid Brock (OSU)
#5 – Jered Cortez (PSU)
#6 – Josh Martinez (Air Force)
#7 – Sam Brancale (Minn)
#8 – Nathan Kraisser (Campbell)
#9 – David Pearce (Drexel)
#10 – Caleb Richardson (Penn)
#11 – Corey Keener (Central Mich)
#12 – Keegan Moore (WVU)
Can’t even begin to guess Jered’s seed, though I’m sure he’ll be top-12, and likely on the other side of the bracket from Jordan. I believe Jordan will be seeded higher, despite Jered’s undefeated record and NLO victory over Jordan. Both wrestlers have a 1 in 5 chance of a pigtail bout, which they should win easily. Here’s where I’ll focus on our scorer (Jordan), though Cortez can really do some damage. Finishing higher than a Kaid Brock (Oklahoma St), for example, takes points from our competition. Jordan should wrestle a Martinez (Air Force) or Brancale (Minn) level guy in quarters. This would be a good win, though I’m not picking bonus for Jordan. A victory here sets up a semi’s match with the likely #2 seed, DiCamillo (Virginia). DiCamillo has some great wins vs Hall and Synon this year, and his only losses are to Garrett (Cornell), and DiJulius (tOSU). A win will help Jordan’s seeding come NCAA time, and also earn a tough finals match against Garrett (Cornell). Lose anywhere along the line (prior to finals), and heaven-only-knows who he’ll get in wrestle-backs, though Brock (Oklahoma St), Cortez (PSU), and Martinez will likely be waiting. The DiCamillo match is a toss-up, imo. With glasses only slightly tinted Blue&White, I’m going with a 2nd Place finish for Jordan, and a 4th Place finish for Jered. Jordan wrestled Garrett at 125 last year (a loss), but other than that has no history with any of the top guys. We could see a couple bonus point wins for the our guys, but only in the 1-3 point range, imo.
141
Penn State: Gary Dinmore, Jimmy Gulibon, Kade Moss
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Dean Heil (OSU)
#2 – Joey McKenna (Stanford)
#3 – Jimmy Gulibon (PSU)
#4 – Tommy Thorn (Minn)
#5 – Randy Cruz (Lehigh)
#6 – Bryce Merideth (Wyo)
#7 – Zach Horan (Central Mich)
#8 – Mike Pongracz (Chatt)
#9 – Kevin Devoy (Drexel)
#10 – Nicholas Gil (Navy)
#11 – Kade Moss (PSU)
#12 – Gary Dinmore (PSU)
Both Moss and Dinmore have a chance to be seeded. If I were to guess, one or both will be in the #10-#12 range. Same as Cortez at 133, both guys could, and I’ll guess WILL wreak havoc on the brackets, and rob other teams of points. It would not surprise me if all 3 of our guys are on the podium, they’re that good. And who can forget Moss’ run through the brackets last year with 11 bonus points!! Since he’s a possible scorer, I’d take a repeat if it were to happen!!
Jimmy should get a Horan (Central Mich) or Meredith (Wyoming) or Cruz (Lehigh) level guy in the quarters. I’ll give this round to a healthy Jimmy, but not by bonus. Waiting should be McKenna (Stanford), a kid that horsed Jimmy for an early takedown and a long ride that sealed a 7-3 McKenna win in an earlier dual. I’m picking a McKenna win in the finals over Heil (Oklahoma St), so for me it’s a loss here for Jimmy against a kid that will be in the hunt, imo, for a NC come March. Hope I’m wrong about the McKenna match, but assuming I’m not, Jimmy will have 2 bouts in wrestle-backs to finish 3rd (my prediction for him at this tournament), surely against some combination of Thorn (Minnesota), Cruz, Horan, or Meredith. With 52 wrestlers in the field, all our guys stand a better than 50% chance of a pigtail bout. Jimmy’s only history, in addition to McKenna, is with Templeton (12-4 win last year). Along with Jimmy’s 3rd Place guess, I’ll go with 7th and 8th for Dinmore and Moss.
149
Penn State: Zain Retherford
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Zain Retherford (PSU)
#2 – C.J. Cobb (Penn)
#3 – Matt Cimato (Drexel)
#4 – Evan Henderson (NC)
#5 – Colin Heffernan (Central Mich)
#6 – Anthony Collica (OSU)
#7 – Pat Lugo (Edinboro)
#8 – Jake Short (Minn)
#9 – Laike Gardner (Lehigh)
#10 – Paul Fox (Stanford)
#11 – Matt Frisch (the Citadel)
#12 - ??
A clear #1 seed, Zain should be standing atop the podium, maybe with bonus point wins in every match, though the competition gets stiffer the closer one gets to the finals. With 50 registered wrestlers at 149, Zain has a slightly better than 70% chance for a pigtail bout. Zain’s competition in the quarter’s should be a Horan (Central Mich) or Short (Minn) or Gardner (Lehigh) level guy. His semi’s opponent should be Heffernan (Central Mich) or Henderson (NC). Henderson is moving up, and I’m guessing he’ll be slotted about #4 for the Scuffle. Favored to be in the finals, with Zain, is Cobb (Penn) or Cimato (Drexel), though Collica (Oklahoma St) or Lugo (Edinboro) could crash the party. Either way, I like Zain to finish on top the podium, and with a significant number of bonus points, between 6 and 8 depending on whether he gets a pigtail. As far as history…at 141 and in 2013-14, Zain won against Collica (2-0), and Gardner (10-4).
157
Penn State: Jason Nolf, Zach Beitz, Vincenzo Joseph
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Jason Nolf (PSU)
#2 – Lucas Smith (Central Mich)
#3 – Mitch Minotti (Lehigh)
#4 – Dylan Cottrell (WVU)
#5 – Russell Parsons (Army)
#6 – Andrew Atkinson (Virginia)
#7 – Aaron Walker (the Citadel)
#8 – Joe Smith (OSU)
#9 – Brandon Kingsley (Minn)
#10 – Kamaal Shakur (Chatt)
#11 – Chris Dowdy (Cornell)
#12 – May Bethea (Penn)
Ours is a talented trio, and like 141, we have 3 guys capable of reaching the podium. Up a weight, I don’t expect Zach to be seeded, and Joseph’s body of work just doesn’t justify it (the Scuffle seeds 1 through 12). As far as Nolf, he’s a prohibitive favorite to win the Scuffle, with none of the other top-7 guys there. It’s a seemingly weak field at 157, and with 41 registered guys, the Penn State contingent has slightly less than a 50% chance of having a pigtail bout. In the quarters, Jason should face a Walker (the Citadel) or Atkinson (Virginia) or Kingsley (Minnesota) level guy, and possibly Joe Smith (OSU). The semi’s could see matches vs the likes of Cottrell (WVU) or Parsons (Army). My guess for Jason’s finals opponent is the winner of Smith (Central Mich) and Minotti (Lehigh). I’ll go with Nolf to win, the only question is, by how much, as he sure does like to score a lot of points. He has no history with any of the other top wrestlers at the Scuffle.
Note: This will be a fun weight class to watch. With RS’s Larry Early (Minnesota), Joe Smith (Oklahoma St), and Vincenzo Joseph (PSU) all wrestling, and the return of Dylan Palacio, this weight class is much deeper than the 5 ranked guys (InterMat) suggests. It’s possible this weight class may provide more surprises than any other. I did not seed Palacio, as he has not wrestled yet in 2015-16, though a top-8 seed is possible.
165
Penn State: Garett Hammond, Geno Morelli, Shakur Rasheed
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Alex Dieringer (OSU)
#2 – Jim Wilson (Stanford)
#3 – Duke Pickett (Cornell)
#4 – Jake Faust (Duke)
#5 – Geno Morelli (PSU)
#6 – Shakur Rasheed (PSU)
#7 – Casey Fuller (Edinboro)
#8 – Ryan Preisch (Lehigh)
#9 – John Staudenmeyer (NC)
#10 – Forrest Przybysz (App St)
#11 – Brandon Krone (Minn)
#12 – Garett Hammond (PSU)
Yes, I expect all 3 of our guys to be seeded, though it may be a stretch for the seeding committee to place all of our guys in the top-12. This is our 3rd weight class where we have 3 guys that could reach the podium (141 and 157 are the others), but this weight class has more at stake. Hammond, Morelli, and Rasheed are all vying for the starting spot, and separation at the Scuffle will go a long way towards earning it. Finishing tightly bunched, and the coaches are left to settle it in the room, or by rotating the guys in duals…and us to discuss it ad nauseam.
This is the hardest weight class to predict match-ups, though by InterMat, and with the departure of Ethan Ramos to 174, it appears we will have 2 guys in the top 8 or 9, and maybe top 6. My guess is that Morelli and Rasheed will show up on opposite side of the bracket, meaning one will be #6-7, and the other #5,8 or 9. Hammond could end up #11-12, or unseeded, my guess. I’ll just talk generally about the top guys and who our guys might face, assuming my seed guesses are accurate.
With 39 registered wrestlers, our guys stand about a 1 in 3 chance of having a pigtail bout. If they are all seeded, the Penn State wrestlers should earn their way to the R16. Then a #11-12 guy will get the likes of Fuller (Edinboro) or Przybysz (App St) or Preisch (Lehigh), and maybe a teammate (Morelli or Rasheed). The #5-9 guys will surely get one of Przybysc, Krone, Preisch, Staudenmeyer (NC), or Bethea (Penn). Again, these all sound like winnable matches for Morelli and Rasheed. Win in the R16, and the R8 will have some of the same names waiting, but also the likes of #1 seed Dieringer (Oklahoma St.), Wilson (Stanford), Pickett (Cornell), Massa (Michigan) or Faust (Duke). My guess is 2 of our guys finish on the podium, so I’ll go with Morelli and Rasheed…though Hammond is certainly capable. I also believe each of our guys will exceed their seed, so a #3-4 finish, and a #5-6 finish for our top-2 is possible. Very little history to go on, though Hammond does own a win vs Preisch (3-2 last year) and 2 losses to Dieringer. I would expect all our guys to put up some bonus point wins, maybe in the 3-5 range per wrestler.
174
Penn State: Bo Nickal
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Brian Realbuto (Cornell)
#2 – Kyle Crutchmer (OSU)
#3 – Bo Nickal (PSU)
#4 – Ethan Ramos (NC)
#5 – Mike Ottinger (Central Mich)
#6 – Jadean Bernstein (Navy)
#7 – Brian Harvey (Army)
#8 – Elliot Riddick (Lehigh)
#9 – Chandler Rogers (OSU)
#10 – Keaton Subjeck (Stanford)
#11 – Kasey Kent (Penn)
#12 – Ben Stroh (Wyo)
Bo has a 1 in 3 chance of having a pigtail bout, with 39 wrestlers registered at 174. He should easily win through the R8, where his likely opponent will be Bernstein (Navy) or Harvey (Army), assuming Ramos (NC) gets inserted as the #4 seed. If Ramos goes #3 (just in case, though I doubt it will happen), Bo likely gets Ottinger (Central Mich). Win, and Bo will get one of Crutchmer (Oklahoma St), Ramos, or Realbuto (Cornell). Again, if he gets the #3 seed, most likely it would be Crutchmer, and Ramos v Realbuto will be the other semi. Hoping for a win here, and Bo makes the finals, probably against Realbuto, as Ramos gets used to his new weight class, and loses to the Cornell wrestler. I’ll split the matches against Crutchmer (win) and Realbuto (loss) and go with a 2nd Place finish…but he’ll learn an enormous lesson that pays dividends at the end-of-season tournaments. Nickal has no history against any of the top guys, and I look for that to be an advantage for him. His bonus point victories, I’m guessing, will add 3-5 points to the team’s totals.
184
Penn State: Matt McCutcheon
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Gabe Dean (Cornell)
#2 – Vic Avery (Edinboro)
#3 – Lorenzo Thomas (Penn)
#4 – Matt McCutcheon (PSU)
#5 – Mathew Miller (Navy)
#6 – Nolan Boyd (OSU)
#7 – Alex Utley (NC)
#8 – Jordan Ellingwood (Central Mich)
#9 – Jakob Scheffel (WVU)
#10 – Jordan Rogers (OSU)
#11 – John Lampe (Chatt)
#12 – Ville Heino (Campbell)
Almost went with a #3 seed, since Avery (Edinboro) hasn’t wrestled yet in 2015-16. I ended up giving the AA from last year the #2 seed, bumping Thomas (Penn) to #3 and Cutch to #4. With 42 wrestlers, Matt has about a 50%chance of having a pigtail bout. Should be clear sailing through the R16, as he’ll avoid all seeded wrestlers. In the R8, Matt’s likely opponent will be Miller (Navy), a wrestler he’s never faced. This is a toss-up bout that Matt must win if he wants to get to the next level. Assuming he does, #1 Dean (Cornell) will be waiting, which is a tall order. Take a loss in the semi’s, and Matt drops to wrestle-backs where he will be fighting for 3rd through 6th against the likes of Thomas, Miller, Boyd (Oklahoma St) and Utley (NC). Matt has faced 3 noted wrestlers, losing to Avery (3-8), Thomas (2-4 and 2-4), and Boyd (2-4 and 0-4). Sure would be nice if Cutch could exorcise some of these losses. My money has Matt finishing #4-5. Dean, Avery, and Thomas, and I’m guessing one of Miller or Boyd will finish higher. Having said that, he could get to #3 with a super tournament. Bonus points will be hard to come by in the R8, but Cutch should have 2-4 by then.
197
Penn State: Morgan McIntosh
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Morgan McIntosh (PSU)
#2 – Connor Hartmann (Duke)
#3 – Brett Pfarr (Minn)
#4 – Jake Smith (WVU)
#5 – Zach Nye (Virginia)
#6 – John Bolich (Lehigh)
#7 – Scott Boykin (Chatt)
#8 – Bryce Barnes (Army)
#9 – Trent Noon (Northern Col)
#10 – Marshall Haas (the Citadel)
#11 – J.T. Goodwin (Cal Poly)
#12 – Chip Ness (NC)
197 contains 41 registered guys, so MM has slightly less than a 50% chance of having a pigtail bout. It really doesn’t look like Smack will get challenged until the semi’s, though I’ll take a stab at his R8 opponent as a Noon (Northern Col) or Haas (the Citadel) or Barnes (Army) level wrestler. Win and Smith (WVU) or Nye (Virginia) match is likely. Morgan has wrestled Nye (3-0 win) previously. Hartmann (Duke) vs B. Pfarr (Minnesota) will be the other semi, and it should be a dandy. I’m guessing Morgan takes care of business, and wrestles in the finals against one of them. His only previous bout with either was a 2-3 loss to Hartmann at the NCAA Tournament. My guess here is a 1st Place finish, with 2-4 bonus points.
285
Penn State: Jan Johnson
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Austin Marsden (OSU)
#2 – Michael Kroells (Minn)
#3 – Max Wessel (Lehigh)
#4 – Riley Shaw (Cleveland St)
#5 – Denzel Dejournette (App St)
#6 – Jared Johnson (Chatt)
#7 – Tanner Harms (Wyo)
#8 – Billy Miller (Edinboro)
#9 – Nate Butler (Stanford)
#10 – Jeramy Sweany (Cornell)
#11 – Pat Gillen (Virginia)
#12 – Boyce Cornwell (Gardner-Webb)
Coming off a scope of his knee, Jan will face a test at the Scuffle. Not knowing where he’ll land, I will not review his possible opponents, only to say that 1 win in the championship bracket (or 0, depending on where he’s placed), and another 1 or 2 in wrestle-backs might be his cap right now.
TEAM REVIEW
The Southern Scuffle team title for 2016 appears, on paper, to be a 2-team race, between Penn State and Oklahoma State. Lehigh and Cornell are a somewhat distant 3rd and 4th…again, ON PAPER.
Penn State
The first team Cael has had that is equal parts high-scoring dual meet team and high-scoring tournament team, this year’s version of the Nittany Lions will hopefully show its tournament prowess at the SS. Based on SEEDS, PSU should end up in the 150 point range (149.5 to be exact) for Placement and Advancement Points. I have Nico, Zain, Jason, and Morgan winning their weight classes. Jordan, Jimmy, and Bo are seeded for 3rd, and Geno (or Shakur or Garett) and Matt seeded for 5th. I believe it’s possible to finish at or above the seeds at every weight class, and really like our chances to better our seed at 133, 165, and 174.
High Bonus Point scoring is the new standard for Penn State wrestling. The competition between our own guys to one-up their teammates has created a high-powered offense unlike any other in college wrestling today. Question is, can this team better the benchmark of 50.5 bonus points scored by Penn State in the 2012 Scuffle. If they do, is it possible, dare I say, we score over 200 team points? Everything would have to fall into place, but it is in the realm of possibility. Our team scores for the past 4 years, from 2012 to 2015 are 191.5, 178.5, 189 and 165. Our Bonus Points for those years were 50.5, 35.5, 43, and 45.5. I’ll go with between 185 and 195 points, lest I jinx our guys.
Oklahoma State
At 128 points (Placement and Advancement only), Oklahoma State trails PSU in that department by 21.5 points, by the listed seedings. The Cowboys are picked to have 3 champs (Heil, Dieringer, and Marsden), and 2 2nd Place finishers (Klimara and Crutchmer). They are capable of winning the Scuffle with this lineup!! They can’t afford many missteps however. I’m picking McKenna over Heil at 141 and Nickal over Crutchmer at 174, so if I’m right, that alone is worth 6.5 team points. But then again, Boyd seems to have Cutch’s number, and with a good tournament, could pick up valuable team points. Then there’s the unlikelihood that this group of Cowboys (except Dieringer) will keep anywhere close to Penn State’s Bonus Points, and a victory seems daunting. Excluding the uncertainty, the upsets, the surprises, etc. that are part of every tournament, I’m picking the Cowpokes to be in the 150-160 range.
Curiously missing are Marsteller and Blees. Both would have certainly scored team points at 157. Now I’m even more curious…with absolutely no rumor or underground source stating it, could this be the unveiling of Joe Smith? If so, one could argue that an additional 15-20 team points are possible, and now they’re in the mix!!
Lehigh and Cornell
With 93.5 and 92.5 points (Placement and Advancement only), Lehigh and Cornell respectively, should be 3rd and 4th. Lehigh has team balance, with 8 seeded placers but none higher than 3rd, and Cornell does it with champs, as they have 3 favored (Garrett, Realbuto, Dean), but only 2 other placers. My pick for both is to be in the 105 to 115 range, with Cornell finishing 3rd on the strength of more Bonus Points.
The Rest
The following chart shows the top ten, by Placement and Advancement Points only, and by the seeding from the original post. With Penn State, Oklahoma State, Lehigh and Cornell taking 21 of the available 40 top-4 seeds, it makes sense that they are top-4.
Penn State 149.5
Oklahoma State 128
Lehigh 93.5
Cornell 92.5
Minnesota 62.5
Central Michigan 54
Stanford 49
Edinboro 45
West Virginia 44
Virginia 40.5
Pre-seeds have historically been announced the day before the tournament, or December 31st. This review is written prior to pre-seeding, so there’s much guesswork involved. I used InterMat’s rankings as a baseline, and probably won’t have time to redo this once the seeds are announced. Good luck and good health to all the wrestlers, and safe travels for all fans that are attending.
125
Penn State: Nico Megaludis, Ken Yanovich
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Nico Megaludis (PSU)
#2 – Eddie Klimara (OSU)
#3 – Zeke Moisey (WVU)
#4 – Darian Cruz (Lehigh)
#5 – Drew Templeton (Wyo)
#6 – Dalton Macri (Cornell)
#7 – Connor Schram (Stanford)
#8 – Sean Russell (Edinboro)
#9 – Brent Fleetwood (Central Mich)
#10 – Skyler Perry (Minn)
#11 – Ethan Lizak (Minn)
#12 - ??
With 38 wrestlers in the field, Nico has about a 1 in 3 chance of having a pigtail bout. Same with Yanovich. I would love to see Ken have a great tournament, but since he’s likely to be unseeded, and we don’t know his path, I’ll focus on Nico. Nico could and should rack up bonus point victories through the semi-finals. He’s likely to face a Russell (Edinboro) or Fleetwood (Central Mich) or Petry (Minnesota) level guy in the R8, and a Cruz (Lehigh) or Templeton (Wyoming) level wrestler in the semi’s. Assuming they are all wins, the likely finals opponent should be the winner of the Klimara (Oklahoma St) v Moisey (WVU) bout. Nico has wins (2013-14) vs Cruz (18-3) and Klimara (6-0, and 11-7), but hasn’t wrestled the other top guys. I’ll go with Nico as the Scuffle champ at 125.
133
Penn State: Jordan Conaway, Jered Cortez
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Nashon Garrett (Cornell)
#2 – George DiCamillo (Virginia)
#3 – Jordan Conaway (PSU)
#4 – Kaid Brock (OSU)
#5 – Jered Cortez (PSU)
#6 – Josh Martinez (Air Force)
#7 – Sam Brancale (Minn)
#8 – Nathan Kraisser (Campbell)
#9 – David Pearce (Drexel)
#10 – Caleb Richardson (Penn)
#11 – Corey Keener (Central Mich)
#12 – Keegan Moore (WVU)
Can’t even begin to guess Jered’s seed, though I’m sure he’ll be top-12, and likely on the other side of the bracket from Jordan. I believe Jordan will be seeded higher, despite Jered’s undefeated record and NLO victory over Jordan. Both wrestlers have a 1 in 5 chance of a pigtail bout, which they should win easily. Here’s where I’ll focus on our scorer (Jordan), though Cortez can really do some damage. Finishing higher than a Kaid Brock (Oklahoma St), for example, takes points from our competition. Jordan should wrestle a Martinez (Air Force) or Brancale (Minn) level guy in quarters. This would be a good win, though I’m not picking bonus for Jordan. A victory here sets up a semi’s match with the likely #2 seed, DiCamillo (Virginia). DiCamillo has some great wins vs Hall and Synon this year, and his only losses are to Garrett (Cornell), and DiJulius (tOSU). A win will help Jordan’s seeding come NCAA time, and also earn a tough finals match against Garrett (Cornell). Lose anywhere along the line (prior to finals), and heaven-only-knows who he’ll get in wrestle-backs, though Brock (Oklahoma St), Cortez (PSU), and Martinez will likely be waiting. The DiCamillo match is a toss-up, imo. With glasses only slightly tinted Blue&White, I’m going with a 2nd Place finish for Jordan, and a 4th Place finish for Jered. Jordan wrestled Garrett at 125 last year (a loss), but other than that has no history with any of the top guys. We could see a couple bonus point wins for the our guys, but only in the 1-3 point range, imo.
141
Penn State: Gary Dinmore, Jimmy Gulibon, Kade Moss
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Dean Heil (OSU)
#2 – Joey McKenna (Stanford)
#3 – Jimmy Gulibon (PSU)
#4 – Tommy Thorn (Minn)
#5 – Randy Cruz (Lehigh)
#6 – Bryce Merideth (Wyo)
#7 – Zach Horan (Central Mich)
#8 – Mike Pongracz (Chatt)
#9 – Kevin Devoy (Drexel)
#10 – Nicholas Gil (Navy)
#11 – Kade Moss (PSU)
#12 – Gary Dinmore (PSU)
Both Moss and Dinmore have a chance to be seeded. If I were to guess, one or both will be in the #10-#12 range. Same as Cortez at 133, both guys could, and I’ll guess WILL wreak havoc on the brackets, and rob other teams of points. It would not surprise me if all 3 of our guys are on the podium, they’re that good. And who can forget Moss’ run through the brackets last year with 11 bonus points!! Since he’s a possible scorer, I’d take a repeat if it were to happen!!
Jimmy should get a Horan (Central Mich) or Meredith (Wyoming) or Cruz (Lehigh) level guy in the quarters. I’ll give this round to a healthy Jimmy, but not by bonus. Waiting should be McKenna (Stanford), a kid that horsed Jimmy for an early takedown and a long ride that sealed a 7-3 McKenna win in an earlier dual. I’m picking a McKenna win in the finals over Heil (Oklahoma St), so for me it’s a loss here for Jimmy against a kid that will be in the hunt, imo, for a NC come March. Hope I’m wrong about the McKenna match, but assuming I’m not, Jimmy will have 2 bouts in wrestle-backs to finish 3rd (my prediction for him at this tournament), surely against some combination of Thorn (Minnesota), Cruz, Horan, or Meredith. With 52 wrestlers in the field, all our guys stand a better than 50% chance of a pigtail bout. Jimmy’s only history, in addition to McKenna, is with Templeton (12-4 win last year). Along with Jimmy’s 3rd Place guess, I’ll go with 7th and 8th for Dinmore and Moss.
149
Penn State: Zain Retherford
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Zain Retherford (PSU)
#2 – C.J. Cobb (Penn)
#3 – Matt Cimato (Drexel)
#4 – Evan Henderson (NC)
#5 – Colin Heffernan (Central Mich)
#6 – Anthony Collica (OSU)
#7 – Pat Lugo (Edinboro)
#8 – Jake Short (Minn)
#9 – Laike Gardner (Lehigh)
#10 – Paul Fox (Stanford)
#11 – Matt Frisch (the Citadel)
#12 - ??
A clear #1 seed, Zain should be standing atop the podium, maybe with bonus point wins in every match, though the competition gets stiffer the closer one gets to the finals. With 50 registered wrestlers at 149, Zain has a slightly better than 70% chance for a pigtail bout. Zain’s competition in the quarter’s should be a Horan (Central Mich) or Short (Minn) or Gardner (Lehigh) level guy. His semi’s opponent should be Heffernan (Central Mich) or Henderson (NC). Henderson is moving up, and I’m guessing he’ll be slotted about #4 for the Scuffle. Favored to be in the finals, with Zain, is Cobb (Penn) or Cimato (Drexel), though Collica (Oklahoma St) or Lugo (Edinboro) could crash the party. Either way, I like Zain to finish on top the podium, and with a significant number of bonus points, between 6 and 8 depending on whether he gets a pigtail. As far as history…at 141 and in 2013-14, Zain won against Collica (2-0), and Gardner (10-4).
157
Penn State: Jason Nolf, Zach Beitz, Vincenzo Joseph
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Jason Nolf (PSU)
#2 – Lucas Smith (Central Mich)
#3 – Mitch Minotti (Lehigh)
#4 – Dylan Cottrell (WVU)
#5 – Russell Parsons (Army)
#6 – Andrew Atkinson (Virginia)
#7 – Aaron Walker (the Citadel)
#8 – Joe Smith (OSU)
#9 – Brandon Kingsley (Minn)
#10 – Kamaal Shakur (Chatt)
#11 – Chris Dowdy (Cornell)
#12 – May Bethea (Penn)
Ours is a talented trio, and like 141, we have 3 guys capable of reaching the podium. Up a weight, I don’t expect Zach to be seeded, and Joseph’s body of work just doesn’t justify it (the Scuffle seeds 1 through 12). As far as Nolf, he’s a prohibitive favorite to win the Scuffle, with none of the other top-7 guys there. It’s a seemingly weak field at 157, and with 41 registered guys, the Penn State contingent has slightly less than a 50% chance of having a pigtail bout. In the quarters, Jason should face a Walker (the Citadel) or Atkinson (Virginia) or Kingsley (Minnesota) level guy, and possibly Joe Smith (OSU). The semi’s could see matches vs the likes of Cottrell (WVU) or Parsons (Army). My guess for Jason’s finals opponent is the winner of Smith (Central Mich) and Minotti (Lehigh). I’ll go with Nolf to win, the only question is, by how much, as he sure does like to score a lot of points. He has no history with any of the other top wrestlers at the Scuffle.
Note: This will be a fun weight class to watch. With RS’s Larry Early (Minnesota), Joe Smith (Oklahoma St), and Vincenzo Joseph (PSU) all wrestling, and the return of Dylan Palacio, this weight class is much deeper than the 5 ranked guys (InterMat) suggests. It’s possible this weight class may provide more surprises than any other. I did not seed Palacio, as he has not wrestled yet in 2015-16, though a top-8 seed is possible.
165
Penn State: Garett Hammond, Geno Morelli, Shakur Rasheed
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Alex Dieringer (OSU)
#2 – Jim Wilson (Stanford)
#3 – Duke Pickett (Cornell)
#4 – Jake Faust (Duke)
#5 – Geno Morelli (PSU)
#6 – Shakur Rasheed (PSU)
#7 – Casey Fuller (Edinboro)
#8 – Ryan Preisch (Lehigh)
#9 – John Staudenmeyer (NC)
#10 – Forrest Przybysz (App St)
#11 – Brandon Krone (Minn)
#12 – Garett Hammond (PSU)
Yes, I expect all 3 of our guys to be seeded, though it may be a stretch for the seeding committee to place all of our guys in the top-12. This is our 3rd weight class where we have 3 guys that could reach the podium (141 and 157 are the others), but this weight class has more at stake. Hammond, Morelli, and Rasheed are all vying for the starting spot, and separation at the Scuffle will go a long way towards earning it. Finishing tightly bunched, and the coaches are left to settle it in the room, or by rotating the guys in duals…and us to discuss it ad nauseam.
This is the hardest weight class to predict match-ups, though by InterMat, and with the departure of Ethan Ramos to 174, it appears we will have 2 guys in the top 8 or 9, and maybe top 6. My guess is that Morelli and Rasheed will show up on opposite side of the bracket, meaning one will be #6-7, and the other #5,8 or 9. Hammond could end up #11-12, or unseeded, my guess. I’ll just talk generally about the top guys and who our guys might face, assuming my seed guesses are accurate.
With 39 registered wrestlers, our guys stand about a 1 in 3 chance of having a pigtail bout. If they are all seeded, the Penn State wrestlers should earn their way to the R16. Then a #11-12 guy will get the likes of Fuller (Edinboro) or Przybysz (App St) or Preisch (Lehigh), and maybe a teammate (Morelli or Rasheed). The #5-9 guys will surely get one of Przybysc, Krone, Preisch, Staudenmeyer (NC), or Bethea (Penn). Again, these all sound like winnable matches for Morelli and Rasheed. Win in the R16, and the R8 will have some of the same names waiting, but also the likes of #1 seed Dieringer (Oklahoma St.), Wilson (Stanford), Pickett (Cornell), Massa (Michigan) or Faust (Duke). My guess is 2 of our guys finish on the podium, so I’ll go with Morelli and Rasheed…though Hammond is certainly capable. I also believe each of our guys will exceed their seed, so a #3-4 finish, and a #5-6 finish for our top-2 is possible. Very little history to go on, though Hammond does own a win vs Preisch (3-2 last year) and 2 losses to Dieringer. I would expect all our guys to put up some bonus point wins, maybe in the 3-5 range per wrestler.
174
Penn State: Bo Nickal
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Brian Realbuto (Cornell)
#2 – Kyle Crutchmer (OSU)
#3 – Bo Nickal (PSU)
#4 – Ethan Ramos (NC)
#5 – Mike Ottinger (Central Mich)
#6 – Jadean Bernstein (Navy)
#7 – Brian Harvey (Army)
#8 – Elliot Riddick (Lehigh)
#9 – Chandler Rogers (OSU)
#10 – Keaton Subjeck (Stanford)
#11 – Kasey Kent (Penn)
#12 – Ben Stroh (Wyo)
Bo has a 1 in 3 chance of having a pigtail bout, with 39 wrestlers registered at 174. He should easily win through the R8, where his likely opponent will be Bernstein (Navy) or Harvey (Army), assuming Ramos (NC) gets inserted as the #4 seed. If Ramos goes #3 (just in case, though I doubt it will happen), Bo likely gets Ottinger (Central Mich). Win, and Bo will get one of Crutchmer (Oklahoma St), Ramos, or Realbuto (Cornell). Again, if he gets the #3 seed, most likely it would be Crutchmer, and Ramos v Realbuto will be the other semi. Hoping for a win here, and Bo makes the finals, probably against Realbuto, as Ramos gets used to his new weight class, and loses to the Cornell wrestler. I’ll split the matches against Crutchmer (win) and Realbuto (loss) and go with a 2nd Place finish…but he’ll learn an enormous lesson that pays dividends at the end-of-season tournaments. Nickal has no history against any of the top guys, and I look for that to be an advantage for him. His bonus point victories, I’m guessing, will add 3-5 points to the team’s totals.
184
Penn State: Matt McCutcheon
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Gabe Dean (Cornell)
#2 – Vic Avery (Edinboro)
#3 – Lorenzo Thomas (Penn)
#4 – Matt McCutcheon (PSU)
#5 – Mathew Miller (Navy)
#6 – Nolan Boyd (OSU)
#7 – Alex Utley (NC)
#8 – Jordan Ellingwood (Central Mich)
#9 – Jakob Scheffel (WVU)
#10 – Jordan Rogers (OSU)
#11 – John Lampe (Chatt)
#12 – Ville Heino (Campbell)
Almost went with a #3 seed, since Avery (Edinboro) hasn’t wrestled yet in 2015-16. I ended up giving the AA from last year the #2 seed, bumping Thomas (Penn) to #3 and Cutch to #4. With 42 wrestlers, Matt has about a 50%chance of having a pigtail bout. Should be clear sailing through the R16, as he’ll avoid all seeded wrestlers. In the R8, Matt’s likely opponent will be Miller (Navy), a wrestler he’s never faced. This is a toss-up bout that Matt must win if he wants to get to the next level. Assuming he does, #1 Dean (Cornell) will be waiting, which is a tall order. Take a loss in the semi’s, and Matt drops to wrestle-backs where he will be fighting for 3rd through 6th against the likes of Thomas, Miller, Boyd (Oklahoma St) and Utley (NC). Matt has faced 3 noted wrestlers, losing to Avery (3-8), Thomas (2-4 and 2-4), and Boyd (2-4 and 0-4). Sure would be nice if Cutch could exorcise some of these losses. My money has Matt finishing #4-5. Dean, Avery, and Thomas, and I’m guessing one of Miller or Boyd will finish higher. Having said that, he could get to #3 with a super tournament. Bonus points will be hard to come by in the R8, but Cutch should have 2-4 by then.
197
Penn State: Morgan McIntosh
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Morgan McIntosh (PSU)
#2 – Connor Hartmann (Duke)
#3 – Brett Pfarr (Minn)
#4 – Jake Smith (WVU)
#5 – Zach Nye (Virginia)
#6 – John Bolich (Lehigh)
#7 – Scott Boykin (Chatt)
#8 – Bryce Barnes (Army)
#9 – Trent Noon (Northern Col)
#10 – Marshall Haas (the Citadel)
#11 – J.T. Goodwin (Cal Poly)
#12 – Chip Ness (NC)
197 contains 41 registered guys, so MM has slightly less than a 50% chance of having a pigtail bout. It really doesn’t look like Smack will get challenged until the semi’s, though I’ll take a stab at his R8 opponent as a Noon (Northern Col) or Haas (the Citadel) or Barnes (Army) level wrestler. Win and Smith (WVU) or Nye (Virginia) match is likely. Morgan has wrestled Nye (3-0 win) previously. Hartmann (Duke) vs B. Pfarr (Minnesota) will be the other semi, and it should be a dandy. I’m guessing Morgan takes care of business, and wrestles in the finals against one of them. His only previous bout with either was a 2-3 loss to Hartmann at the NCAA Tournament. My guess here is a 1st Place finish, with 2-4 bonus points.
285
Penn State: Jan Johnson
Seed Guesses:
#1 – Austin Marsden (OSU)
#2 – Michael Kroells (Minn)
#3 – Max Wessel (Lehigh)
#4 – Riley Shaw (Cleveland St)
#5 – Denzel Dejournette (App St)
#6 – Jared Johnson (Chatt)
#7 – Tanner Harms (Wyo)
#8 – Billy Miller (Edinboro)
#9 – Nate Butler (Stanford)
#10 – Jeramy Sweany (Cornell)
#11 – Pat Gillen (Virginia)
#12 – Boyce Cornwell (Gardner-Webb)
Coming off a scope of his knee, Jan will face a test at the Scuffle. Not knowing where he’ll land, I will not review his possible opponents, only to say that 1 win in the championship bracket (or 0, depending on where he’s placed), and another 1 or 2 in wrestle-backs might be his cap right now.
TEAM REVIEW
The Southern Scuffle team title for 2016 appears, on paper, to be a 2-team race, between Penn State and Oklahoma State. Lehigh and Cornell are a somewhat distant 3rd and 4th…again, ON PAPER.
Penn State
The first team Cael has had that is equal parts high-scoring dual meet team and high-scoring tournament team, this year’s version of the Nittany Lions will hopefully show its tournament prowess at the SS. Based on SEEDS, PSU should end up in the 150 point range (149.5 to be exact) for Placement and Advancement Points. I have Nico, Zain, Jason, and Morgan winning their weight classes. Jordan, Jimmy, and Bo are seeded for 3rd, and Geno (or Shakur or Garett) and Matt seeded for 5th. I believe it’s possible to finish at or above the seeds at every weight class, and really like our chances to better our seed at 133, 165, and 174.
High Bonus Point scoring is the new standard for Penn State wrestling. The competition between our own guys to one-up their teammates has created a high-powered offense unlike any other in college wrestling today. Question is, can this team better the benchmark of 50.5 bonus points scored by Penn State in the 2012 Scuffle. If they do, is it possible, dare I say, we score over 200 team points? Everything would have to fall into place, but it is in the realm of possibility. Our team scores for the past 4 years, from 2012 to 2015 are 191.5, 178.5, 189 and 165. Our Bonus Points for those years were 50.5, 35.5, 43, and 45.5. I’ll go with between 185 and 195 points, lest I jinx our guys.
Oklahoma State
At 128 points (Placement and Advancement only), Oklahoma State trails PSU in that department by 21.5 points, by the listed seedings. The Cowboys are picked to have 3 champs (Heil, Dieringer, and Marsden), and 2 2nd Place finishers (Klimara and Crutchmer). They are capable of winning the Scuffle with this lineup!! They can’t afford many missteps however. I’m picking McKenna over Heil at 141 and Nickal over Crutchmer at 174, so if I’m right, that alone is worth 6.5 team points. But then again, Boyd seems to have Cutch’s number, and with a good tournament, could pick up valuable team points. Then there’s the unlikelihood that this group of Cowboys (except Dieringer) will keep anywhere close to Penn State’s Bonus Points, and a victory seems daunting. Excluding the uncertainty, the upsets, the surprises, etc. that are part of every tournament, I’m picking the Cowpokes to be in the 150-160 range.
Curiously missing are Marsteller and Blees. Both would have certainly scored team points at 157. Now I’m even more curious…with absolutely no rumor or underground source stating it, could this be the unveiling of Joe Smith? If so, one could argue that an additional 15-20 team points are possible, and now they’re in the mix!!
Lehigh and Cornell
With 93.5 and 92.5 points (Placement and Advancement only), Lehigh and Cornell respectively, should be 3rd and 4th. Lehigh has team balance, with 8 seeded placers but none higher than 3rd, and Cornell does it with champs, as they have 3 favored (Garrett, Realbuto, Dean), but only 2 other placers. My pick for both is to be in the 105 to 115 range, with Cornell finishing 3rd on the strength of more Bonus Points.
The Rest
The following chart shows the top ten, by Placement and Advancement Points only, and by the seeding from the original post. With Penn State, Oklahoma State, Lehigh and Cornell taking 21 of the available 40 top-4 seeds, it makes sense that they are top-4.
Penn State 149.5
Oklahoma State 128
Lehigh 93.5
Cornell 92.5
Minnesota 62.5
Central Michigan 54
Stanford 49
Edinboro 45
West Virginia 44
Virginia 40.5
