Rumor Swirling That Big Ten Will Be Adding 4 New Schools This Week
- Thread starter Chickadee34
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Athlon is quoting BarStool--it doesn't get much less substantial than that. If this had legs I think it would be all over Twitter (or X--whatever Mush calls it this morning)
Barstool Sports' Jack McGuire is hearing a rumor that the Big Ten is adding four schools this week: Clemson, Florida State, Oregon and Washington.
Pitt will just end up in the second tier with whatever is left from the Big XII, ACC and Pac XII. Which the ACC kind of already was--just making it official. The Leftovers though will provide some good football games.
https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/col...-2x-profits-program-joins-big-ten-sec-reports
Actuaries green lighting this? Crazy to imagine they can pay 30M/year and still make more money, (than they currently do in the ACC) Really puts the amount of $$$ involved In perspective.
Actuaries green lighting this? Crazy to imagine they can pay 30M/year and still make more money, (than they currently do in the ACC) Really puts the amount of $$$ involved In perspective.
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You are right to be skeptical of Clemson and FSU. Neither are Big Ten material. But, who knows. We do know that half of the ACC wants out. In all likelihood there is critical mass, or close to it, to dissolve the agreement, especially if the Big Ten opts to go really BIG, not just big. The AAU is not the end all in schools that meet the academic and research requirements to make the Big Ten but you at least need to be a candidate for admission. This is why I don't think Clemson or FSU are Big Ten material. I don't think either would submit to the Big Ten's standards for athletics if it got that far. Looking at the AAU membership by conference or those close to the mark you get the following candidates.
| ACC | PAC-10 | Big-XII | SEC | Other |
| Duke | Arizona | Rice | Texas A&M | Notre Dame |
| Georgia Tech | California | Kansas | Florida | South Florida |
| Miami | Colorado | Texas | Missouri | Tulane |
| Pittsburgh | Oregon | Iowa State (Former) | Vanderbilt | Buffalo |
| Virginia | Washington | Texas Tech (Candidate) | San Diego State (Candidate) | |
| Syracuse (Former) | Arizona State | |||
| North Carolina | Stanford | |||
| NC State (Candidate) | Utah | |||
| Virginia Tech (Candidate) |
South Florida, Buffalo and Tulane are obviously not candidates. I would add Florida to the list of non-candidates. I would add Boston College to the list if adding them adds Notre Dame. I for one do think we end up closer to 40 teams with our own playoff. Think how great a 40 team league would be under the Big Ten banner would be ending in The National Championship Game at the Rose Bowl with high academic standards, consistent NIL and portal rules and appropriate coaching pay? The league would be big enough to support a four game playoff plus intra-league bowl games and bowl games against lower tier conferences.
Oregon and Washington are no surprise...but the FSU and Clemson thing is curious because of A) the GOR through 2036. B) Clemson would be a real outlier in the whole expansion target dichotomy (not in a major city, state; not academically equal to other B1G schools; football great but not all sports)
The Band-Aid that may get ripped off is the GOR. The Big Ten is getting over 80 million per school through 2030. The SEC close to 70 million through 2034. The ACC is around 30 million through 2036.
Doing some math, we can see that FSU and Clemson would stand to miss 350 million dollars each by staying in the ACC until 2030. Not only that, but the Big Ten then could sign their next deal, which it seems reasonable to assume could nearly double yet again if the live sports TV bubble doesn't explode. Teasing out that math a little farther (and I'll be conservative and only increase the Big Ten deal by 50%...so let's say it's 120 million per school in the next TV deal), FSU and Clemson would stand to lose another 540 million dollars each from 2030-2036 as they remain in their hideous GOR.
Even if this airtight GOR can't be lessened, FSU and Clemson could be passing up 890 million dollars EACH in the next 13 years. Does that seem worth a legal battle to you?
The Band-Aid that may get ripped off is the GOR. The Big Ten is getting over 80 million per school through 2030. The SEC close to 70 million through 2034. The ACC is around 30 million through 2036.
Doing some math, we can see that FSU and Clemson would stand to miss 350 million dollars each by staying in the ACC until 2030. Not only that, but the Big Ten then could sign their next deal, which it seems reasonable to assume could nearly double yet again if the live sports TV bubble doesn't explode. Teasing out that math a little farther (and I'll be conservative and only increase the Big Ten deal by 50%...so let's say it's 120 million per school in the next TV deal), FSU and Clemson would stand to lose another 540 million dollars each from 2030-2036 as they remain in their hideous GOR.
Even if this airtight GOR can't be lessened, FSU and Clemson could be passing up 890 million dollars EACH in the next 13 years. Does that seem worth a legal battle to you?
I am thinking that the conference would not shy away from adding Thomas Jefferson's school.
Yeah. I don’t expect to get anyone from the ACC or SEC. The big 12 is imploding. Why not Oregon and Washington plus Utah and Stanford?
GOR is not airtight, especially given a couple of facts. The schools themselves can almost certainty void it. Right now, half want out and that number is probably more than half. Second, certain schools lack the authority to legally sign it but would have to leave and then challenge via lawsuit so the cost would be high regardless.
It only makes sense for the B1G to take 4 more from the Pac12.
They have to for balance. Need 6 teams on the west coast
Add ND and Miami together.
Then go after UNC, UVa, Duke, and GaTech.
That's 26 teams, max... 24 without ND and Mia. I like the 24 without ND and Mia.
They have to for balance. Need 6 teams on the west coast
Add ND and Miami together.
Then go after UNC, UVa, Duke, and GaTech.
That's 26 teams, max... 24 without ND and Mia. I like the 24 without ND and Mia.
2022 TV viewership football - UCLA #25 1.591M viewership - a solid # and a net plus to out conference. VA #79 237k, UNC #46 849k. This is all about revenue and VA would be a huge financial loss to the conference. There are many G5 teams with better viewership than VA and they are one of the lowest P5 school for viewership. Perhaps UNC would bring in substantial Bball viewership to bring value, but on the football side, they are also a net loss to our conference. Don’t get me wrong, I want those schools in the conference, but the reality is that conference realignment has nothing to do with academics and everything to do with TV dollars. Even VA Tech is a dog - #76 264k. For perspective PSU was #9 at 3.05M. The reason FSU and Clemson are upset is that the ACC is full of viewership dogs and those two schools hold up the entire valuation of the conference. Without those two schools ACC generates no more football interest than a G5 conference.
Rumors of a $300 million FSU buyout discussed
www.sportskeeda.com
$300 million buyout in line for FSU leaving ACC, Noles to reap 2x profits if the program joins Big Ten or SEC: Reports
Florida State's attempt to exit the Atlantic Coast Conference is reportedly gaining momentum.
www.sportskeeda.com
I preferred the major regional conferences. Pacific, Southeast, Southwest, BiG (Midwest), etc. There should have been a North Eastern conference.
This allowed for roughly 8 conference winners. Now we're headed for 2 conferences having the top 30 teams and teams finishing 5th in their conference expecting to be in a playoff.
This allowed for roughly 8 conference winners. Now we're headed for 2 conferences having the top 30 teams and teams finishing 5th in their conference expecting to be in a playoff.
Any chance the ACC just dissolves? If that is threatened then ABC/ESPN would have to take notice. ESPN is losing money and dropping staff. They can't afford to lose the only football bell cows of Clemson, NC and FSU to the B1G and FOX.
Ultimately, FBS will dissolve and B1G, SEC and some others will form their own league for football. This may allow mids and the dogs of the major conferences to realign. I can see where some schools will be in a football conference and a different conference for all other sports.
Ultimately, FBS will dissolve and B1G, SEC and some others will form their own league for football. This may allow mids and the dogs of the major conferences to realign. I can see where some schools will be in a football conference and a different conference for all other sports.
Now Prime has better access and more appeal to recruits in Texas as a big benefit for CU making the move.
Besides PSU and a Northeast conference would be weak. BC, Syracuse who else? Temple? I guess Pitt. Not attractive. I know Joe wanted one back in the day but it doesn't hold up today.
And, we differ because I don't want those teams in the conference but I think those are the top targets of both. Time will tell. I understand what you're saying and you make an excellent argument with facts. I'm not saying you're wrong--just all the signs point those two IMO.
They did try to avoid that at the beginning and people complained it was by geography....plus the stupid division names didn't help
One thing is for certain - we are both conference realignment nerds.
Overall I hope this phase of cfb can somehow balance the two desires of more compelling national games (like PSU/USC) while preserving some of the regional rivalries (like PSU/OSU). It is only accomplishing half of that for us thus far. That’s why I hope we just get podded with other regional east coast schools + ND in a super conference.
Good point but I think Pitt, WVA, and Syracuse would be much stronger today if they had been in a conference with PSU. It might have evolved to include schools like VA, VT, and MD.
In an alternative universe, the Big East basketball schools don’t reject Penn State and we get a football conference that looks something like this:
Boston College
Florida State
Miami
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Would’ve made for some fun Thanksgiving weekend games.
Lol we are. Can't wait to see how it all plays out. I don't care about where schools are. I just want good games. I'd love to play USC and Oregon yearly. 1 home 1 away.One thing is for certain - we are both conference realignment nerds.
Not sure about that. When did they all finally find a conference home?
I think the bigger issue is the northeast high schools churn out minimal NFL talent. What talent there is PSU takes or some other power. Leftover 3 star talent goes to the Syracuses and BCs hence they can't compete at the "big boy" level.
Paterno built a juggernaut and in the process weakened Syracuse, BC, MD and WVU by attracting all the best talent from their core recruiting areas. He also got the better of Pitt but back in the day PA had a lot of talent and Pitt could keep up to some degree. We are now reaping that benefit. The reason we can waltz into Massachusetts and snag a Liam Andrews or a Friermuth or get a DDS out of Baltimore or is because of what Paterno was able to do years ago in exerting dominance over these schools. Top tier talent want to play for winners. Whether it is 1980 or 2023. Heck, Curt Warner, an all time PSU great, is from West Virginia!
From 1976 to 1983 Pitt more than kept up to PSU regarding talent. It was a short time period but Pitt was able to land generational talent from Pennsylvania for a spell. Then Pitt alums found a way to screw it up and the consistency of a Paterno led PSU prevailed.
I read on another site - can't remember if it was Eleven Warriors or MGoBlog - that the B1G was interested in Washington, Oregon and possibly ASU but did not want to pursue them for fear of being accused as the reason the PAC folded after already securing USC and UCLA. With Colorado and Arizona rumored to be leaving, it's a whole different ballgame and the B1G may now be able to get those 3 at a bargain price
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I disagree. I think it would’ve had a chance at eating up the ACC’s best brands and securing a very strong media deal with the biggest markets across the east coast. Who knows, maybe you’re right and Penn State bolts for the Big Ten anyways. Just my opinion, though.
I wonder why Pitt was not able to keep up with PSU in the late 60s and into the mid 70s? I think there was plenty of football talent in the state then?
From 1950-1965, the series record was 9 PSU wins, 6 Pitt wins and one tie so pretty competitive. Then Paterno takes over as HC in 1966 and Penn State promptly reels off 10 wins in a row and 12 of 13 from '66-'78. You have to give credit to Joe for gaining a stranglehold on the rivalry although I think Pitt probably had a hand in screwing things up as well.
No chance. That conference either would have needed ND to survive or Penn State still leaves for the Big Ten. There no money in that conference. Only other option would have been for that conference to merge with the Big 8 way back when.
I don't think the PAC will ever fold, nor the ACC. The names will continue but the schools in the conference will change.
Rutgers was about a market even if all logic indicates that market doesn't care about Rutgers.
It's not about markets anymore. It's about content. Cord cutting has changed those dynamics. Klatt had a really good podcast on this last week.
The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast: Emergency Pod: Colorado and Coach Prime are heading to the Big 12 on Apple Podcasts
Show The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast, Ep Emergency Pod: Colorado and Coach Prime are heading to the Big 12 - Jul 28, 2023
podcasts.apple.com
Rumor is Pac12 deal is for 19 million for each team and all games will be streaming, Arizona ready to jump to Big 12 this week and Oregon and Washington hot on there tail to either BIg10 or Big12. FSU ready to pay 30 million a year for next to ten years to get of ACC and into SEC or BIG10. Stay tuned.
If 19M is real with streaming only, the PAC xx collapses quickly with the remaining schools going to the Big 10 and Big 12. The Pac has been horribly managed. I think the Big 12 takes the Arizonas, Cal, Or St and Wa St. Utah is a toss-up as they generate good tv viewership. The rest go to the Big 10.
Still some talk of ASU and Utah moving to Big 12 too. But as some on this board have said, these things never get leaked so I'm sure it's just BS.
Because of the schools being leaked the Big Ten probably adds Virginia and UNC then after the dust settles 2-4 Pac XII teams...joking but only kind of. Ideally ND comes to their senses and joins the Big Ten now.
