I think the numbers for Oregon demonstrate they are worth more than the B1G average revenue. Oregon is 12th in tv viewership in the nation in 2022. Together Oregon and Washington are no worse than B1G average. At this point the wait is for the Big 12 to pull more schools away from the PAC12 so that we are not blamed for destroying that conference.
Rumor Swirling That Big Ten Will Be Adding 4 New Schools This Week
- Thread starter Chickadee34
- Start date
The hardcore fans that fill the stands that aren't happy with the changes aren't the people they're targeting due to their age. It's has absolutely always been a minor league. Most people watch to root for their college and see the future stars of the NFL. It's why people love the draft. College football is in great shape...some dont like the change you they're creating a fictional universe in which people won't continue to watch a great product. The level of play is great. It's not AAA baseball or the AHL. Nationally people have ties to universities and Saturdays during the fall are set up for college football. I think some just want it to fail because they can't accept change.
There is a myth that we have been watching students who are at school primarily for an education and have an extracurricular activity called football. No, the primary purpose for decades is using Div 1 as a minor league to get to the NFL. The schools themselves are to blame as they have leveraged all of this into a business that is the second largest in American sports. There are very few schools over the last several decades that have run a better football business than PSU.
If all they’re worth combined is average then why add them when you’re not increasing payout per school. They’re also only worth what someone is willing/able to pay. No one knows if our media partners have another 120 million available for college football media rights at this point in time, the fact that the pac-12 is stuck negotiating with Apple TV at this point doesn’t support the idea that the networks still have hundreds of millions waiting to be doled out.
The Big Ten leadership has made it clear that they didn't want to be the bad guy that brought about the end of the PAC 12. With Colorado leaving and now probably at least Arizona, they might feel like they can make a move now and add Oregon and Washington. They would come in at a reduce rate but still make more than what they could anywhere else. I think adding any ACC schools would be a stretch right now but just the fact that rumors are out there probably means that there are at least some conversations ongoing.
I hope we’re sweetening up to Pete Bevacqua and the Notre Dame admin, because the only way we get into the Big Ten is if we’re their +1. I don’t even think we’d be their preferred plus one, either (Stanford).
I’ve accepted our positioning in the changing landscape. We’re in the third best conference right now and will likely end up in the third best conference (Big 12) when the music stops. As long as we still have a seat at the table, I’m fine with that.
Because the Pac XII alone with what is left is irrelevant. Washington Oregon and Utah in a real conference are more valuable
Unless the third best conference becomes tier 2 if the SEC and Big Ten break away. That's what everything seems to be pointing to. Once ND joins a conference I feel like things will move insanely fast
I actually think the Big 12 will be involved in whatever the Big Ten and SEC do, and it all comes down to basketball. Here’s why:
Whether it’s inviting Arizona or UConn, and potentially adding other ACC brands down the line, it’s clear that their priorities are on basketball, not football. This is evident by the fact that they’ve looked at poaching the northeast Big East basketball schools/Gonzaga and even splitting up the football/basketball media contracts.
I think this is how they envision their end game: eventually, the Big Ten and SEC are going to split off and do their own thing. However, what do you do with March Madness in that case? There’s a lot of money to be made from the tournament, especially if they ever take control of it and stop distributing 75% of the revenues to D1-D3 Olympic sports.
They’ve guaranteed that their conference will be involved in the future of collegiate athletics no matter what because you can’t have a basketball tournament and max out its potential value without Kansas, Arizona, UConn, etc. If they’re able to eventually get other brands like Louisville if/when the ACC collapses, it has the making of the strongest basketball conference while also being respectable enough at football.
Who knows, maybe I’m way off. But that’s just my opinion.
I agree they’re heading to a tipping point where adding more teams dilutes the money.
The next step is likely unequal revenue sharing within conferences. We are seeing that floated for new additions now. Why are Indiana, Rutgers, Vandy, Mississippi State, etc making as much as Ohio State, Bama, and Georgia?
After the unequal revenue phase starts to wear thin, the final step would be kicking out schools but I have a real hard time seeing university presidents doing that to each other. That’s when I think we’re finally heading to new regional super conferences for the top teams.
The Big Ten is filled with dead weight- Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, and even Nebraska. That’s over half the conference that would never get an invite now. Sooner or later the Ohio State, Bama, Georgia types are going to wonder why they’re sharing (giving away??) revenue with those type teams simply because of random alignment that happened 100 years ago when Princeton, Harvard, Yale, and Army ruled college football.
I simply do not see how the BIG adds 2 teams in North Carolina and and 2 teams Virgina and zero teams in Florida.
The total population in Florida exceeds the population of both Virgina and North Carolina combined. In addition, the football talent in Florida far exceeds the football talent in North Carolina and Virgina and the exposure will help BIG recruiting in Florida. From a pure football standpoint, FSU is a much bigger get than the other 4 schools and the Miami football brand far exceeds the football brand of the other 4 schools. A PSU / Miami or PSU / FSU football game generates far more attention and excitement than a PSU / (insert any of the other 4 universities) football game.
Last edited:
So if you’re one of the dead weight schools why are you voting to expand vs maintaining status quo. You can’t get to a point in the big ten where unequal rev share is even a possibility unless the schools you’re going to screw go along with it. Rutgers still isn’t at a full share, if I’m their president I’m not voting yes on new schools until we’re receiving ours.
In your scenario the “dead weight” schools are the proverbial frog in the boiling pot of water.
I think it's a valid thought but I don't think basketball matters. They can breakaway for football and not everything else
True. I think they’re voting for expansion now because they want more money. I don’t think many in college football are looking at the long view.
If this continues we will go from chopping up random conferences to get more money to chopping up the surviving conferences, (likely P3- SEC, Big 10, Big 12).
There will be pushback from presidents to jettison dead weight schools. I think it eventually boils down to 3 choices- kick out some schools, go the unequal revenue share route, or have the big boys break away to form new conferences, (more money, more regional). Of those choices the unequal revenue share will begrudgingly be the best option for the Rutgers, Northwestern type schools.
The kicker would be a collapse of network money being spent on sports which would freeze everything as is. I just think years from now having a conference that spans from New Jersey to California just isn’t going to work. Once all the new glitz wears off there’s going to be a final reshuffle IMO.
Last edited:
The Big Ten might add four teams this week, but it won’t be Clemson and FSU. Reading between the lines, it appears that they’re waiting on AZ/ASU/UU to bolt for the Big 12 before they deliver the kill shot.
Four schools in talks.
www.yahoo.com
Sources: Big Ten has begun preliminary talks to potentially add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford
The Big Ten has been reluctant to move to 20 teams, even if many in college athletics believe expansive superconferences are inevitable.
I think there is virtually no chance the Big Ten adds Cal. They are worthless no matter how awesome their academics are.
It might be necessary in order to save travel costs for the non-revenue sports. It's beginning to look like the Big 10 eventually will be divided into Eastern, Central and Western divisions, and I'd be surprised if the West Coast schools would be made to travel to the East Coast and vise versa too many times to play the non-revenue sports.
Why do 14/16 of the Big ten schools care? They took on USC/UCLA with the understanding that those schools just have to deal with the travel issues. Taking on more Pacific coast schools only makes things worse for the majority of the Big Ten schools.
I don’t see how or why they would bring in enough west coast schools to make any sort of division viable. There just aren’t enough west coast schools that are worth it as the PAC’s current TV woes indicate.
FSU said, today, that hey are ready to bail on the ACC. They said that the situation is untenable and they really can't compete with the B1G or SEC and the TV deals don't seem to be there. If you read andy staple's comments, he is clearly suggesting that this is probably further down the road than anyone knows outside of the insiders.
They have until Aug. 15th to put something together for the 2024-25 year. My guess is that they’re going to plan things out the next year and then the lawsuits will ensue.
Well, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal would make up a 6 team West Division. Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Michigan and MSU would make up an Eastern Division. Then, all of the other schools would make up a Midwestern Division.
I don't see the Big Ten adding 4 more western schools. Washington and Oregon make sense--obviously--but then you have Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and arguably UNLV or Colorado State. There's no reason to take any of them. I'm sure Utah, Arizona and Arizona are making a pitch to the SEC before the commit to the Big XII. Once that happens Oregon and Washington likely join the Big Ten. Stanford goes to Independent status with Cal and Oregon State joining the MWC or the remaining Pac XII steals most of the MWC.
You may not like it, but it is all happening. I agree with you that Cal, or Stanford for that matter, is not worth it at full revenue, but they would take any revenue amount over 25 mill to leave that sinking ship. And certainly USC and UCLA did not come to the Big Ten without the promise that other West Coast teams were coming with them eventually. Eventually, I believe new divisions get formed that conform to their geographic location to address travel and an expanded conference schedule occurs that creates more compelling matchups cross-division.
Let's just get to it.
8 conferences generating 8 conference winners leading to an 8 team playoff.
8 conferences generating 8 conference winners leading to an 8 team playoff.
Cal offers academic connections that the Big Ten will covet. They are top 20 in men's sports nationally (PSU is #5) and top 40 in women's sports (PSU is #48).
And they won't be getting a full share this time around (7 year deal through 2030).
I bet we take them 2x2.
UO and UW get 50% shares for the remainder of the deal.
Then let Cal and Stanford languish in the wind a while...no Pac conference anymore...no like-minded academic institutions in the MWC or Big 12 even...and meanwhile FSU/Clemson will be huffing and hollering about wanting out of the ACC and getting spots 19 and 20 from the Big Ten...
and then Cal and Stanford come on board to the Big Ten for 30% and they'll say "thank you, sir." And that 25 million a year would be more than they'd get in the old Pac and almost as much as the Big 12 with schools they see themselves as superior to.
And they won't be getting a full share this time around (7 year deal through 2030).
I bet we take them 2x2.
UO and UW get 50% shares for the remainder of the deal.
Then let Cal and Stanford languish in the wind a while...no Pac conference anymore...no like-minded academic institutions in the MWC or Big 12 even...and meanwhile FSU/Clemson will be huffing and hollering about wanting out of the ACC and getting spots 19 and 20 from the Big Ten...
and then Cal and Stanford come on board to the Big Ten for 30% and they'll say "thank you, sir." And that 25 million a year would be more than they'd get in the old Pac and almost as much as the Big 12 with schools they see themselves as superior to.
This is basically what happens when the SEC and Big Ten get to 24
One big league of 48--6 dvisions of 8 only there will be a 16 team playoff.
So long as there are no "lucky losers" in the playoff I'm all for it. Wildcards have no place in a playoff. They exist for one reason only. Money. You should have to win something to get chance at a championship.
Yeah...Top 2 in each division make the playoff in that scenario
And yes it's about money. TV will want as many important games as possible.
UDub and Oregon would add to a new media deal meaning with them in the conference the B10 gets a bigger media rights deal. They bring the Northwest and probably swoop into Northern Cali. The LA area has a fan base for these two schools as well. Washington has a rich football history and Oregon is a power now.
You can't simply look at it as we are inviting no one except ND because we don't think the media deal will be good. There are more strategic implications. So what happens if the SEC grabs half the ACC and decides to pluck both Arizona schools and Utah. Now they have 20 plus members. ND will go there. And oh yeah the SEC will swoop up UDub and Oregon. Does the B10 do nothing because they they won't get a bigger media deal? Well, they sure as hell will get a smaller deal the next time they are negotiating.
FSU and Clemson headed to the SEC not B10. That is why the B10 needs to strengthen its west coast footprint with UDub and Oregon. Then look at the best of the southeast which I think includes UNC and Duke. After that, who knows, pray Notre Dump gives them the time of day and possibly pick up Cal and Stanford plus a couple more ACC schools. Maybe evaluate the two Arizona schools plus Utah.
With Florida and South Carolina why do they want FSU and Clemson? I'm not convince anyone wants either of them.
Someone has to be willing to pay it... You can't simply look at it as partners are obligated to pay what the big ten (or SEC) wants.
Disney is trying to sell partnership stakes in ESPN and hasn't ruled out spinning them off entirely because profits and revenues are down substantially. There isn't some unlimited pot of money just sitting out there waiting to be given to the big ten or the sec. Cord cutting has changed, and continues to change, the dynamics quite a bit.
If the SEC decides to grab a bunch of mediocre programs it means their current members are ok with taking a pay cut, or bringing in members at reduced rates. Not sure the benefit to bringing in members and going the unbalanced route. What if the SEC decides to scoop up all of FCS too?
Last edited:
Yes, I agree there is not an unlimited pool of money and these media execs have to report to their CEO and CFO and the CEO has to report to the board so you can't just be a cowboy in throwing money around. Someone needs to be accountable. With that said, I believe a good ROI financial analysis could be made by the B10 to gauge how much a UDub and Oregon could add to a deal while getting input from NBC, CBS and Fox. To me it makes sense to expand the footprint into the NW and have at least 4 west coast schools for logistics and ultimately long term brand awareness for the B10 on the west coast.
As has been bantered here, the B10 is in the drivers seat as UDub and Oregon are on a sinking ship. So the B10 could offer them a lower piece of the pie for say the next 2-3 years then make an agreement with Fox, NBC and CBS that if certain ratings numbers are achieved in the first two or three years of UDub and Oregon in the conference then it triggers a renegotiation of the original deal to ultimately have a bigger media rights deal. If the ratings are not there then UDub and Oregon have to live with a lower share, whatever that is until the original deal expires which I think is 10 years. You would need to make the lower share still attractive enough to UDub and Oregon to fend off other suitors (B12 or SEC potentially) while not significantly cannibalizing the current B10 members financial take.
