Yeah, like twentieth thread nothing but speculation. I know people love to speculate and dream and make predictions but I am done.
Wake me when something actually happens.
Rumor Swirling That Big Ten Will Be Adding 4 New Schools This Week
- Thread starter Chickadee34
- Start date
Wake me when something actually happens.
Well, reading the articles it looks like the PAC xx is coming up short with their deal. It is largely a streaming based deal. That is a disaster. The conference will be invisible to the rest of the country and players will not get the exposure they want. The dollars seem to be in the range of $20m-$25M and may get up to Big 12 numbers years into the contract. Another negative. The Big 12 has no flagship football schools and landed more dollars on traditional media. The PAC 12 still has (for now at least) 2 traditional football powers in OR and WA, or 3 if you include Utah, and they ended up on the losing end of this. I think the PAC implodes shortly. It is a shame their leadership failed so miserably.
PAC 12 schools worried about the future.
College football leaders are hypocrites with everything up for sale as PAC 12 burns down
PAC 12 schools worried about the future.
College football leaders are hypocrites with everything up for sale as PAC 12 burns down
Utah Arizona and Arizona State are definitely all begging the Big XII for membership
Washington and Oregon are still probably hoping for a miracle and a home in the Big Ten. Hell, they should probably call the SEC at this point--maybe they'd want a western footprint of Washington, Oregon and Stanford with Utah or Arizona to compete with the Big Ten going west. This is all chaos but fun.
At one time it was "Will the amount per school increase if School X is added?" But I'm wondering if it's still that, in the short term at least. People keep talking about, is the final number 20 or 24 or whatever? That makes me think a final number of schools is the goal, in which case some schools may be added that don't increase the amount per school in the short run, but do in the long run not by virtue of the school itself but by virtue of the fact that a certain number of schools is more optimal in the long term.
If the SEC and Big Ten stopped at 16 then there would still be a good many good schools out there. Perhaps none of those would increase the amount per school right now, but the fact that the SEC and Big Ten let that many good schools not be in their conference might hurt, or at least might not optimize, the SEC and Big Ten's revenue in the long run.
If the SEC and Big Ten stopped at 16 then there would still be a good many good schools out there. Perhaps none of those would increase the amount per school right now, but the fact that the SEC and Big Ten let that many good schools not be in their conference might hurt, or at least might not optimize, the SEC and Big Ten's revenue in the long run.
USC and UCLA knew their conference was being run into the ground and did right thing. I am sure they are breathing a sigh of relief not being part of that shitshow. Oregon and Washington know what they’re worth is and are probably prostituting themselves to the Big Ten and SEC right now.
I agree with you that the longterm should be considered by the two conferences and I think they both secretly have an endgame sitting between 20-24 schools. I think we would be fools not to take Oregon, Washington, and Stanford right now for the long term goals of the conference. I think those three additions would force ND to reconsider independence.
I think both end up with 24 then join forces to create a TV deal
What's the real benefit to sitting at 20-24 teams vs where things currently sit after OU/UT and USC/UCLA make their moves? What goals do you think believe acquiring Oregon, Washington and Stanford advance? Turning major college football into a 2 league sport?
At some point there are diminishing financial returns along with a whole host of other issues that come with keeping a membership that large happy.
Here’s some interesting food for thought:
• The Big Ten, to this point, has not thought that Oregon and Washington would increase the per-school distribution for conference members.
• According to a Buckeye friend of mine, the Big Ten media contract has a 17th share that is returned back to the Big Ten Network for the time being.
• If you’re Oregon and Washington, and you still don’t have a Big Ten invite as the Pac-12 is falling apart, would you join them instead of the Big 12 if it meant those two schools splitting the 17th share? They’d be at a significant disadvantage compared to the rest of the conference, but you’d still (likely) be making more than you would in any other conference over time and you’d also have a seat at the “big boy table.”
• The Big Ten, to this point, has not thought that Oregon and Washington would increase the per-school distribution for conference members.
• According to a Buckeye friend of mine, the Big Ten media contract has a 17th share that is returned back to the Big Ten Network for the time being.
• If you’re Oregon and Washington, and you still don’t have a Big Ten invite as the Pac-12 is falling apart, would you join them instead of the Big 12 if it meant those two schools splitting the 17th share? They’d be at a significant disadvantage compared to the rest of the conference, but you’d still (likely) be making more than you would in any other conference over time and you’d also have a seat at the “big boy table.”
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And this is creating a better "aka more fun" game. This is creating a more competitive league. You can love the tradition of college football while accepting there's too many teams in DI and playing schedules like our non-conference slate need to change. This takes us there because with the money involved that "haves", which includes Penn State, will see a better product.
If they can't get in the Big Ten they'll be begging the SEC to save them. Going to the Big XII doesn't truly save anyone. There's only two real conferences.
That's horrible. That new Pac 12 commissioner, George something? needs to be canned ASAP. Total incompetence and he failed the entire conference, players, coaches, school communities, fan bases. No excuse.
If I'm Oregon and Washington I do whatever is necessary to get into the B10. I know it is not just their decision but start courting the B10 if you have not already. Take a short term hit financially if you need to for a much better long term future.
Notre Dame couldn't care less about UDub, Oregon and Stanford. Whatever move they make to the B10 makes no difference to the iconic Notre we are better than everyone Damers.
In terms of the SEC and B1G, the benefits of getting to 20-24 are obvious in terms of monopolizing media revenue into the future. It is not "right," but it is the reality. Both conferences are playing the long game here and are ruthless in doing so.
Regionalism is still important in college football, and adding Oregion, Washington, and Stanford (and perhaps one or two others out west) keeps regionalism alive in a national conference. USC/UCLA will not work out long-term without other west coast schools. It also brings in schools who are philosophically in alignment with the B1G's academic and athletic goals. I also think it creates a critical mass in this conference that ND cannot ignore. They cannot be left out of the superconference future of college football.
Personally, I would prefer at least 10 conference games with more compelling matchups (even if it creates more potential losses) in a larger conference vs the current schedule that includes too many UMass's, Villinovas, etc. I would also like to see additional east coast schools.
Ideally there won't be any non-conference games or, if there are, some "SEC-Big Ten challenge" type scenario.
Doesn't Cal Berkeley come with Stanford? I don't see those two being split up.
I see those 4 (Oregon, UDub, the Cardinal and Berkeley) as good possibilities in the west then add 4 east coast schools to get to 24. Duke and UNC for sure then maybe UVA and Va Tech. Maybe Pitt??
Pitt isn't in the discussion truthfully. Nothing against Pitt but they make more sense for the SEC if they go up the coast than the Big Ten. I don't see taking 2 schools from the same state. UNC UVa GA Tech and Notre Dame are the 4 from the east eventually IMO...unless UNC and UVA pick the SEC then who knows
I would personally love all your choices (even Pitt!), but some do not add enough tv value/viewership (like Pitt.) It will be interesting for sure!
And it is minor league at that point. How much minor league baseball do you watch? Minor league Basketball?
Let’s be honest. This has been minor league football and big business since the 1980s, even at PSU!
Remember the state schools, like UVA/VA Tech, may be more complicated . Some may have to be a package deal or pay off other schools in the system like UCLA.
We are 9-9-1 vs ND - great old time rivalry. Would be great to play them more regularly again.
We had 6 and 7 digit NILs for high school seniors in 1985?
News to my friends on the team.
Forget PiT, Penn State owns that market. It adds nothing to the B10 footprint.
PiT crapped the bed long ago.
PiT crapped the bed long ago.
It's not about traditional tv markets, its about stockpiling quality content (which Pitt also adds nothing to).
Unless those schools are substantially increasing media revenue theres still not necessarily a benefit to monopolizing if you're looking at it from the school perspective. You can monopolize the market and still reduce payouts per school. They're not mutually exclusive.
Each school is getting what 60 million currently per year? So $960,000,000 overall coming into the conference annually through the media rights deal including the LA schools.
Getting to 20 means you need to get the media rights contract up to $1,200,000,000. 24 means you need $1,440,000,000.
And thats just for each school already in the conference to make the same amount its already making now. As evidenced by the types of deals the big 12 just signed and the problems the pac 12 is having securing the deal with the teams being proposed, there is a finite amount of money out there to be had. I don't think adding that many mouths to feed necessarily increases the existing schools' bottom lines.
If the big 10 swallowed up the entirety of the big 12 tomorrow I'm not sure why the media rights for those schools would suddenly be valued at greater than 60,000,000 per school as part of the big 10 when they were worth 32,000,000 yesterday. Thats what a lot of this speculation sounds like. Just add schools a, b, c, d, e, f, g and h and suddenly over half a billion dollars more in media rights is just going to appear out of thin air.
At some point the only way you're definitely adding more schools and not watering down payouts is kicking out current members who take more than they add (looking at you Rutgers)... unless the school is Notre Dame.
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If you look at it strictly in terms of football and which schools can add to the media $ pool and not cannibalize it then this is who I have:
Oregon
UDub
Clemson
FSU
That's it.
No one else from the old Pac 12 has the gravitas.
No one else from the ACC is even a football school, maybe Va Tech but they can't draw an audience.
I don't see Clemson or FSU joining.
I do think there are other things in play though like academics and other sports (hoops). That is why I think it is possible schools like UNC, Duke, Stanford and Cal could be admitted.
fastlax, you make good points. But it's not like each of the Pac-9 schools all garner equal value. It looks like they're only due to get $20 million per school. But that doesn't mean that Oregon and Oregon State are both WORTH $20 million each. Oregon might be worth $50 million while Oregon State is worth $5. And Cal is worth $5. Together, those three can get a $60 million contract and in an equal revenue sharing (which all conferences use these days), each school gets $20 million.
(The same goes for Ohio State to the Big Ten...they make the conference upwards of $150 million alone and Purdue about $30 million. Put together, they each get half of the $180 million.)
Which is what this whole thing is about...poaching off the best school for their elite value...not for their current payout in their conference.
And that's why we might be able to take Oregon and Washington at a reduced share to the Big Ten. We can't give them a full share because they aren't individually worth $80 million. But their options are looking like sharing an unfair $20 million share each in the Pac-9...or taking a reduced share of maybe 40 million in the Big Ten.
(The same goes for Ohio State to the Big Ten...they make the conference upwards of $150 million alone and Purdue about $30 million. Put together, they each get half of the $180 million.)
Which is what this whole thing is about...poaching off the best school for their elite value...not for their current payout in their conference.
And that's why we might be able to take Oregon and Washington at a reduced share to the Big Ten. We can't give them a full share because they aren't individually worth $80 million. But their options are looking like sharing an unfair $20 million share each in the Pac-9...or taking a reduced share of maybe 40 million in the Big Ten.
NIL didn't make it minor league football. It's been minor league football for basically 40 years. Yes you're friends were playing minor league football even if they didn't know it.
People watch this minor league because they have attachment to the programs. Paying kids won't change that. Nothing will change that. Look at the ratings even with cable dying.
Let's not pretend people think of this as amateur sport...or have.
The Big Ten could have added UW/Oregon at any time in the last year and chose not to. They simply aren’t interested in those schools joining as regular additions at this time. In fact, other things being equal, I don’t think the Big Ten is interested in adding anyone (unless Notre Dame wants to join) until the ACC teams are able to move and they can be more selective/guided.
That being said, if there is a willingness to go beyond 16 teams, Oregon and Washington are likely on the board as additions at some point, so if they are willing to join the Big Ten for a reduced share (say each team only gets a half share for the duration of this current TV deal), the financials would make sense for the rest of the Big Ten. It also would help “solve” any NBC night game issues (which I think are overblown but could be an incentive for the old school Big Ten teams to go along with it).
He was dealt a losing hand combined with being undercut by a swift move by the Big 12 negotiating early. The previous commissioner completely screwed the PAC-12
It really hasn’t. College football has been very distinct from the NFL but the product is increasingly becoming more like the NFL. The problem is that if it’s just the NFL but a junior version, what is the draw? College football’s distinctness compared to the pros was always what built up the popularity.
The more it becomes NFL lite, it will pick up casual fans who are the ones who drive ratings for the championship games and playoffs but are slowly losing the hardcore fans of college football who actually fill the stands, follow more closely and provide the spectacle. I do truly believe the sport is heading for a reckoning where the bottom will drop out when people spot seeing enough of a difference with the higher quality play of the NFL for it to be worth the time (ie like minor league baseball or other lower division sports).
