Stock Market Update (Where's Eduardo?)

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Here are two charts that I look at occasionally. Someone needs to explain to me how the current price drop is a calamity:

The Buffet Indicator

Shiller PE Ratio

To my eye we are merely correcting from being high on crack. We were detached from reason. We have been "investing" based on a herd mentality and not based on the value of companies.

 

[LMTLION]

I agree with you that it's not simple.

But in the end, it isn't complicated either.

Free trade forces American workers in manufacturing jobs to compete with slave labor around the globe. That's why our manufacturing base, which was once the envy of the world and built the American middle class and made a reality of what was once called the American Dream, has been hollowed out to the point of poverty.

These are the people who once raised the families and fought the wars. Free trade and the globalization of the economy have destroyed them. That might be why they're not raising families anymore and why the elites who rule them have resorted to throwing open our borders and importing an entire replacement population of 15 million illegals.

In return, we get cheap jeans and other goods at Walmart. Bad deal. In fact, it's been a nation-destroying deal. America is more than an economic zone. It's a living, breathing reality with 250 years of tradition, blood, and sacrifice. It's been tossed overboard for the sake of a class of parasites who care only about their own wealth and privilege. Phuck 'em.

I mostly agree that the end goal is correct but I feel this was done too hastily. U.S. vs the world will not work without a much larger manufacturing infrastructure in this country. The economic shock will lead to a recession and put the democrats back in power in the midterms.

 

[CanGeeB]

I mostly agree that the end goal is correct but I feel this was done too hastily. U.S. vs the world will not work without a much larger manufacturing infrastructure in this country. The economic shock will lead to a recession and put the democrats back in power in the midterms.

well, trump only has two years to do anything meaningful, the midterms usually go in the direction of the party out of power...dems will immediately push to impeach trump in order to gum up the works...in reality, his current "control" of congress is predicated on dems who were elected as repubs..other than joe manchin, can you name one dem senator who didn't vote in lockstep with the party?..trump is stuck with collins, the nepo dummy in alaska and a bitter senile mcconnell....lots of good stuff in this thread, i also think trump wants to devalue the dollar, but not to the point of losing reserve currency status....also think the tarrifs on china, in addition to closing the de minimis loophole, will really harm china's exports..looking forward to them trying to flood europe with their excess products..underlying problem is the "uniparty" of criminals in congress, an entire branch of government that puts greed above duty...

 

[PSUNYGNYY]

well, trump only has two years to do anything meaningful, the midterms usually go in the direction of the party out of power...dems will immediately push to impeach trump in order to gum up the works...in reality, his current "control" of congress is predicated on dems who were elected as repubs..other than joe manchin, can you name one dem senator who didn't vote in lockstep with the party?..trump is stuck with collins, the nepo dummy in alaska and a bitter senile mcconnell....lots of good stuff in this thread, i also think trump wants to devalue the dollar, but not to the point of losing reserve currency status....also think the tarrifs on china, in addition to closing the de minimis loophole, will really harm china's exports..looking forward to them trying to flood europe with their excess products..underlying problem is the "uniparty" of criminals in congress, an entire branch of government that puts greed above duty...

Holy run on sentence! Thanks for mucking up a good thread. So many great responses about investing and the market. Plus putting aside political differences to analyze the market and how the economy runs is appreciated. I’m registered independent and have little to no interest in politics so it’s refreshing to see thoughtful discussion.

 

[jferretti]

Here's my opinion on tariffs. I agree with Trump 100% that the world has been sucking off the U.S. teat for decades and it has to stop. Personally I think it all started after WWII when we paid to rebuild other countries and we also agreed to provide for their defense. I think once you offer such a sweet deal the recipient doesn't want to give it up even if you ask nicely. Why do you think Finland and Sweden wanted into NATO? I think it had a lot more to do with wanting the U.S. to protect them than it was having France or Italy protect them.

Tariffs get a little complicated because there are a lot of carveouts and exceptions for certain goods but here's a summary of average tariffs charged by each country:

The bottom line is I support Trump in principle but I think his execution has been horrendous. For one thing he took the trade deficit and divided by 2 to come up with tariff rates. In effect he's taxing countries that have lower production costs even if they don't impose tariffs. He also exaggerates the amount of tariffs imposed by other countries. I don't think we can get to fairness by asking nicely but I also think it's foolish to take on the whole world at once. I assume he thinks we can hold out longer than the other countries and he might be correct. The problem is the economic destruction that occurs in the meantime.

Putin won't end the war with Ukraine unless he can claim victory. Same with Trump and Tariffs. He won't back off unless he can claim victory. I think he overplayed his hand and now he and the country have a big mess on their hands. So no, I'm not a fan of how this all went down.

Truth. And declaring an "emergency" to legally justify the tariffs is dubious at best. This was anything but a deliberative process. I would have preferred some negotiations and input from industry, the Chamber, and other stakeholders to get to the point where tariffs of this magnitude were a last resort.

 

[87 Penn St8]

Apparently, there are those that are OK with a gutted middle class, a $914B annual trade deficit and $35T in debt. OK.

The stock market is just one of many indicators of a good economy. Change is hard. Corrections needed to be made.

I think anyone who is honest with themselves would agree that our government machine needed a haircut.

Exactly how it is being done, by whom, and under what rationale is part of a small subset of the chaos that is ensuing across many fronts.

I have a sister who has served in the Peace Corps in Africa in some of the "sihthole countries" for over a decade. Senior VP Musk is knocking on their door next. Is all of the good she's done on behalf of our nation just wasteproduct? She'll survive if chopped but tone and manner matter.

Got another cousin who is a Federal Ranger in the National Park Service. He oversees a region in a very specific area of specialized service and is 14 months from retirement. As his group is considered Law Enforcement they have not met the hatchet yet. But, as team members at these Parks which are seeing their staffs decimated, their "other duties as assigned" are growing every day. Cops cleaning restrooms if needed. He is counting the days.

My wife works for Penn. They are in a hiring freeze now, will not replace anyone who leaves, departments need to present plans to cut 25% of their expenses. Academia is similar to the government in that there is a lot of fat, but typically not at the bottom. Her job is quickly becoming "not worth what paid for" and while she is eligible to retire now, it is likely she will move up her 2 year phase out plan to cut and run. She likes her work and is tied to a 35 hour week. The "extra duties" simply don't fit into a set hourly job. High stress, feeling like a failure, and anger all factor in when you try to put 2 pounds of sugar into a 1 pound bag.

Why is DT going after Penn? Because a Trans swimmer who was eeligible by NCAA standards was on their team? That's a big issue in Sport, which I happen to agree with DTs stance, but the repurcussions of his flex hit regular people first and hardest. It is also fair to say that his own vanity plays a role as Penn doesn’t worship at the altar of Trump and disavowed him as a representative of their values. In my opinion, his move reeks of vindictiveness and reveals his internal petty manchild.

Almost nobody who supports him politically admires him personally. Dude is a lying, cheating, selfish, skunk. Those are facts. Whether one chooses to accept those flaws in exchange for policy is a personal choice that many made. Others' hate him but "voted with their wallets."

I've gone to work probably 30 times in my 2 careers knowing that layoffs were happening that day and I was vulnerable. I only got hit twice- but the feelings associated with the process are awful. While I broadly have empathy for everyone losing their jobs and having their lives turned upside down, I honestly have little sympathy for Trump voters who are getting slashed. Many are regretting their decision- but they made their own bed.

Crazy times for sure. My retirement just got pushed back again....no way I even think about it for 3 years until things settle down.

We need God to Bless America more than ever.

 

[joeaubie21]

Having worked in LE at varied government sites, the laziest and worst employees were the government ones.

Contract employees kept the sites running.

 

[LMTLION]

Truth. And declaring an "emergency" to legally justify the tariffs is dubious at best. This was anything but a deliberative process. I would have preferred some negotiations and input from industry, the Chamber, and other stakeholders to get to the point where tariffs of this magnitude were a last resort.

I’m not sure who advised him. At this point without having the ability to produce a lot of these products here, tariffs just serve as a tax and inflate the cost of many goods far greater than anything that happened under Biden. He’s right about the inequity that exists in trade, but he’s wrong about the approach. This has the potential of being a colossal failure.

 

[bdgan]

Here are two charts that I look at occasionally. Someone needs to explain to me how the current price drop is a calamity:

The Buffet Indicator

Shiller PE Ratio

To my eye we are merely correcting from being high on crack. We were detached from reason. We have been "investing" based on a herd mentality and not based on the value of companies.

I've been saying this for quite a while. In fact I posted this back in December:

The Stock Market Is Making Dubious History, and It Appears to Foreshadow Trouble for Wall Street | The Motley Fool

Wall Street is making history in more ways than one.

www.fool.com

 

[bison13]

Having worked in LE at varied government sites, the laziest and worst employees were the government ones.

Contract employees kept the sites running.

Working in education, we have tons of people at the board of education who do nothing. The three main departments are the curriculum development department, DEI and my department, teacher retention and mentoring.

The curriculum departments for many subjects basically pick someone’s curriculum model by the book and the resources with it and then sit there and do nothing after the first two weeks of school. The only other times they do any kind of work is when at the end of each quarter the teachers give the district assessments and then the curriculum people analyze the numbers to reassess pacing and different materials needed. It’s not every curriculum department, but one specific one that I know of has six people who combined a work about 30 days a year.
The DEI department has a group of 5 or so who are responsible for making presentations that each high school gives monthly during homeroom. I happened to be observing a young teacher during their homeroom period where they gave the presentation. they were the same presentations that they gave two years ago, you could even look at the timestamp on the slides and see that they were from 2022.
My department is full of teachers who are in their last few years before retirement. Most of them are older women and our jobs are to circulate amongst the school system and mentor and help first and second year teachers so that we can retain them. Each of us have a list of a couple dozen that we are supposed to visit regularly and essentially keep a journal on with discussions that we’ve had with them, things that we should be doing as a county to help these young people and issues at specific schools that may only pertain to that school. We just ended the third quarter, and all of us had a meeting with our supervisor. I have my group of new teachers and their files on our OneDrive folder and probably have 3 to 4 pages for each one of these teachers. Some of the other mentors though have not kept track of a single meeting and some of them have only seen their people twice all year. I mentioned at our last group meeting how I noticed that a lot of schools are already running out of their budget for paper and the supervisor asked me how I knew so I told him that I regularly spend five or 10 minutes running copies for some of these new teachers just to give them a break. Not one single other person in my group had done that and as a matter of fact, a few of them suggested to me that I should not do it because they need to be able to manage their time better. I went off on a couple of them that they will make every excuse in the world for a student who never brings a pencil or is never prepared for class or refuses to get off their phone but a teacher that has to regularly make 20 extra copies because a kid can’t remember to bring theirs back from one day to the next, they want to yell at the teacher that say they need to have better time management because they need to take an extra 10 minutes every day to run more copies is unreal.
Just from those three departments, I could probably cut 20 people and it would have exactly 0 effect on the day-to-day management of our county system. The average salary of those 20 people is at least $150,000 as well so that’s 3 million just from them.

 

[bdgan]

Except they held off on future increases, so that spending reset back to its prior pre-2008 straight line trajectory, controlling for the one time blip. So spending was still at $3.5T in 2014 (which is actually ticks below where it *should* have been had it continued to increase as it had been before the financial crisis). And it was slowly starting a downward trajectory post-covid spending, until they abandoned that in 2024.

I don't know where you get your numbers. Spending was $4.4 trillion in 2019 (pre Covid) which is equivalent to $5.4 trillion adjusted for inflation in 2024 (using the BLS CPI inflation calculator). Actual federal spending was 6.8 trillion in 2024. How is that a downward trajectory in spending?

 

[lazydave841]

when you try to put 2 pounds of sugar into a 1 pound bag.

Can't believe you 'sugar-coated' the saying "they give me 6 gallons of shît and all I have is a 5 gallon bucket", but I love the saying. 🤣

 

[bdgan]

Working in education, we have tons of people at the board of education who do nothing. The three main departments are the curriculum development department, DEI and my department, teacher retention and mentoring.

The curriculum departments for many subjects basically pick someone’s curriculum model by the book and the resources with it and then sit there and do nothing after the first two weeks of school. The only other times they do any kind of work is when at the end of each quarter the teachers give the district assessments and then the curriculum people analyze the numbers to reassess pacing and different materials needed. It’s not every curriculum department, but one specific one that I know of has six people who combined a work about 30 days a year.
The DEI department has a group of 5 or so who are responsible for making presentations that each high school gives monthly during homeroom. I happened to be observing a young teacher during their homeroom period where they gave the presentation. they were the same presentations that they gave two years ago, you could even look at the timestamp on the slides and see that they were from 2022.
My department is full of teachers who are in their last few years before retirement. Most of them are older women and our jobs are to circulate amongst the school system and mentor and help first and second year teachers so that we can retain them. Each of us have a list of a couple dozen that we are supposed to visit regularly and essentially keep a journal on with discussions that we’ve had with them, things that we should be doing as a county to help these young people and issues at specific schools that may only pertain to that school. We just ended the third quarter, and all of us had a meeting with our supervisor. I have my group of new teachers and their files on our OneDrive folder and probably have 3 to 4 pages for each one of these teachers. Some of the other mentors though have not kept track of a single meeting and some of them have only seen their people twice all year. I mentioned at our last group meeting how I noticed that a lot of schools are already running out of their budget for paper and the supervisor asked me how I knew so I told him that I regularly spend five or 10 minutes running copies for some of these new teachers just to give them a break. Not one single other person in my group had done that and as a matter of fact, a few of them suggested to me that I should not do it because they need to be able to manage their time better. I went off on a couple of them that they will make every excuse in the world for a student who never brings a pencil or is never prepared for class or refuses to get off their phone but a teacher that has to regularly make 20 extra copies because a kid can’t remember to bring theirs back from one day to the next, they want to yell at the teacher that say they need to have better time management because they need to take an extra 10 minutes every day to run more copies is unreal.
Just from those three departments, I could probably cut 20 people and it would have exactly 0 effect on the day-to-day management of our county system. The average salary of those 20 people is at least $150,000 as well so that’s 3 million just from them.

Perspective of an old timer:

• My first year of school was 1st grade. No kindergarten and no preschool.
• I attended two different old 4 room wooden schoolhouses back in the 1970s.
• I walked to and from a bus stop that was about a half mile from my home.
• One bus took kids of all ages.
• Average class sizes were about 35 kids.
• The principal's office had two employees.
• If I got in trouble the last thing I would do is tell my parents. They didn't want to hear my side of the story.

Today it's different:

• Kindergarten and preschool was added (start at 4 yo instead of 6 yo)
• Modern schools with air conditioning and lots of technology
• The bus comes to your front door
• Separate busses for young kids and old kids
• Average class sizes below 20
• The principal's office has a lot of people
• Parent's complain to the school if their kid gets punished

It makes me wonder how I was able to graduate, get a good score on the SAT, go to college, and get a good job.

 

[PurposePitch]

I don't know where you get your numbers. Spending was $4.4 trillion in 2019 (pre Covid) which is equivalent to $5.4 trillion adjusted for inflation in 2024 (using the BLS CPI inflation calculator). Actual federal spending was 6.8 trillion in 2024. How is that a downward trajectory in spending?

Wut? Dude, I was talking about the downward trajectory following the covid bump. And I said it ended in 2024. Why would you highlight pre-covid 2019, and then 2024? Oy. Per my statements, if you wanted to verify them, you would look at 2020 and 2023 (and, perhaps, 2021 and 2022, if you wanted to verify a trend). Honest to gawd ...

 

[PurposePitch]

Perspective of an old timer:

• My first year of school was 1st grade. No kindergarten and no preschool.
• I attended two different old 4 room wooden schoolhouses back in the 1970s.
• I walked to and from a bus stop that was about a half mile from my home.
• One bus took kids of all ages.
• Average class sizes were about 35 kids.
• The principal's office had two employees.
• If I got in trouble the last thing I would do is tell my parents. They didn't want to hear my side of the story.

Today it's different:

• Kindergarten and preschool was added (start at 4 yo instead of 6 yo)
• Modern schools with air conditioning and lots of technology
• The bus comes to your front door
• Separate busses for young kids and old kids
• Average class sizes below 20
• The principal's office has a lot of people
• Parent's complain to the school if their kid gets punished

It makes me wonder how I was able to graduate, get a good score on the SAT, go to college, and get a good job.

"Kindergarten and preschool was added"?

410 is not a good score on the SAT, by the way. And professional window licker may have been a revered job in the backwoods in which you grew up (because having windows is a sign of prosperity), but in civilization ... not so much.

 

[bdgan]

I agree with you that it's not simple.

But in the end, it isn't complicated either.

Free trade forces American workers in manufacturing jobs to compete with slave labor around the globe. That's why our manufacturing base, which was once the envy of the world and built the American middle class and made a reality of what was once called the American Dream, has been hollowed out to the point of poverty.

These are the people who once raised the families and fought the wars. Free trade and the globalization of the economy have destroyed them. That might be why they're not raising families anymore and why the elites who rule them have resorted to throwing open our borders and importing an entire replacement population of 15 million illegals.

In return, we get cheap jeans and other goods at Walmart. Bad deal. In fact, it's been a nation-destroying deal. America is more than an economic zone. It's a living, breathing reality with 250 years of tradition, blood, and sacrifice. It's been tossed overboard for the sake of a class of parasites who care only about their own wealth and privilege. Phuck 'em.

The reality is we have a global economy and if somebody offers a better product at a lower price that's where people go to shop. I think the majority of people benefit from this. I don't think Jeff Bezos makes people poorer.

I'm willing to accept other countries paying lower wages as long as employment is "at will" and children aren't being abused. I'm not OK with countries that impose higher tariffs on U.S. goods. I'm also not OK with China being treated as a developing nation which gives them preferred borrowing rates and lower dues to the WTO. That's total B.S.

 

[bdgan]

"Kindergarten and preschool was added"?

410 is not a good score on the SAT, by the way. And professional window licker may have been a revered job in the backwoods in which you grew up (because having windows is a sign of prosperity), but in civilization ... not so much.

I did quite well on the SATs and GMATs and I had a good career. I saved the window licking job for victims like you.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

The problem is simple...make cuts with a scalpel managed by a knowledgeable and functional brain not by a Ketamine addict and/or Narcissist. Same applies with tariffs. Deficit spending will not decrease using these tactics nor will our national debt decline. I have made moves along with my brokerage firm to counter this neanderthal approach pretty effectively. I just hope we can keep up.

 

[bvillebaron]

I think anyone who is honest with themselves would agree that our government machine needed a haircut.

Exactly how it is being done, by whom, and under what rationale is part of a small subset of the chaos that is ensuing across many fronts.

I have a sister who has served in the Peace Corps in Africa in some of the "sithole countries" for over a decade. Senior VP Musk is knoxking on their door next. Is all of the good she's done on behalf of our nation just wasteproduct? She'll survive if chopped by tone and manner matter.

Got another cousin who is a Federal Ranger in the National Park Service. He oversees a region in a very specific area of specialized service and is 14 months from retirement. As his group is considered Law Enforcement they have not met the hatchet yet. But, as team members at these Parks which are seeing their staffs decimated, their "other duties as assigned" are growing every day. Cops cleaning restrooms if needed. He is counting the days.

My wife works for Penn. They are in a hiring freeze now, will not replace anyone who leaves, departments need to present plans to cut 25% of theor expenses. Academia is similar to the government in that there is a lot of fat, but typically not at the bottom. Her job is quickly becoming n"ot worth what paid for" and while she is eligible to retire now, it is likely she will move up her 2 year phase out plan to cut and run. She likes her work and is tied to a 35 hour week. The "extra duties" simply don't fit into a set hourly job. High stress, feeling like a failure, and anger all factor in when you try to put 2 pounds of sugar into a 1 pound bag.

Why is DT going after Penn? Because a Trans swimmer who was eeligible by NCAA standards was on their team? That's a big issue in Sport, which I happen to agree with DTs stance, but the repurcussions of his flex hit regular people first and hardest. It is also fair to say that his own vanity plays a role as Penn doesn’t worship at the altar of Trump and disavowed him as a representative of their values. In my opinion, his move reeks of vindictiveness and reveals his internal petty manchikd.

Almost nobody who supports him politically admires him personally. Dude is a lying, cheating, selfish, skunk. Those are facts. Whether one chooses to accept those flaws in exchange for policy is a personal choice that many made. Others' hate him but "voted with their wallets." I've gone to work probably 30 times in my 2 careers knowing that layoffs were happening that day and I was vulnerable. I only got hit twice- but the feelings asdociated with the process are awful. While I broadly have empathy for everyone losing their jobs and having t heir lives turned upside down, I honestly have little sympathy for Trump voters who are getting slashed. Many are regretting their decision- but they made their own bed.

Crazy times for sure. My retirement just got pushed back again....no way I even think about it for 3 years until thongs settle down.

We need God to Bless America more than ever.

But you fully supported vegetable Dementia Joe Biden and the Biden Crime Family Syndicate huh?

 

[bvillebaron]

The problem is simple...make cuts with a scalpel managed by a knowledgeable and functional brain not by a Ketamine addict and/or Narcissist. Same applies with tariffs. Deficit spending will not decrease using these tactics nor will our national debt decline. I have made moves along with my brokerage firm to counter this neanderthal approach pretty effectively. I just hope we can keep up.

And you got your economics degree where and when Nostradamus?

 

[joeaubie21]

E-e-ee-e-ee-ee-e-e!

 

[87 Penn St8]

Working in education, we have tons of people at the board of education who do nothing. The three main departments are the curriculum development department, DEI and my department, teacher retention and mentoring.

The curriculum departments for many subjects basically pick someone’s curriculum model by the book and the resources with it and then sit there and do nothing after the first two weeks of school. The only other times they do any kind of work is when at the end of each quarter the teachers give the district assessments and then the curriculum people analyze the numbers to reassess pacing and different materials needed. It’s not every curriculum department, but one specific one that I know of has six people who combined a work about 30 days a year.
The DEI department has a group of 5 or so who are responsible for making presentations that each high school gives monthly during homeroom. I happened to be observing a young teacher during their homeroom period where they gave the presentation. they were the same presentations that they gave two years ago, you could even look at the timestamp on the slides and see that they were from 2022.
My department is full of teachers who are in their last few years before retirement. Most of them are older women and our jobs are to circulate amongst the school system and mentor and help first and second year teachers so that we can retain them. Each of us have a list of a couple dozen that we are supposed to visit regularly and essentially keep a journal on with discussions that we’ve had with them, things that we should be doing as a county to help these young people and issues at specific schools that may only pertain to that school. We just ended the third quarter, and all of us had a meeting with our supervisor. I have my group of new teachers and their files on our OneDrive folder and probably have 3 to 4 pages for each one of these teachers. Some of the other mentors though have not kept track of a single meeting and some of them have only seen their people twice all year. I mentioned at our last group meeting how I noticed that a lot of schools are already running out of their budget for paper and the supervisor asked me how I knew so I told him that I regularly spend five or 10 minutes running copies for some of these new teachers just to give them a break. Not one single other person in my group had done that and as a matter of fact, a few of them suggested to me that I should not do it because they need to be able to manage their time better. I went off on a couple of them that they will make every excuse in the world for a student who never brings a pencil or is never prepared for class or refuses to get off their phone but a teacher that has to regularly make 20 extra copies because a kid can’t remember to bring theirs back from one day to the next, they want to yell at the teacher that say they need to have better time management because they need to take an extra 10 minutes every day to run more copies is unreal.
Just from those three departments, I could probably cut 20 people and it would have exactly 0 effect on the day-to-day management of our county system. The average salary of those 20 people is at least $150,000 as well so that’s 3 million just from them.

You and I have the "benefit" of being inside the belly of the beast of Education. It is not a pretty situation.

The Curricular work being done by every district in my opinion is overload. If we have state standards, apply them curricularly across all public schools. Some can level as needed, or "enrich" within expanded self research projects- but each district administering slight differences across the Commonwealth is a lot of money for limited benefit.

We don't have a DEI department- so I cannot comment on that. There are different "themes" in terms of decorations in the lobby- but we don't have mandatory presentations.

The main issue I see is the compensation model which you describe in the Mentoring section. As a non merit based system- younger teachers get paid relatively poorly while learning the ropes. The only ways to get raises are to take courses to increase your degrees, or work longer. Another option is to do supplementals like coaching, or score keeping like I did for 15 years across almost all of our sports, or to work after school tutoring/Summer School.

Being in this for almost 20 years, and having worked in the corporate world for 15 years prior, there are marked differences. Basically in Education things never come off the plate when new policies, techniques etc come in. Individual plans for special needs students are booming. These are legal documents that can lead to lawsuits if not followed exactly. Language differences/ English proficiency does not change the mandate to educate and pass kids. Add in cell phones, vapes, aggressive parents and soft Administrators who really only care about their own career arc and rarely provide support to teachers who are being attacked, you see why older folks underdeliver.

It doesn't make it right- but is a human reaction to feeling used for their whole career, so they milk their last years which dictate their pensions. Private schools are not necessarily the answer- as they won't serve the whole population. If the nation were to change child labor laws to #1 make up for deportation and #2 minimize investments in students who have proven they are not in school to learn- but only to distract and steal others' education we may be in better shape.
I think 16 years is a fair age to cut ties and maybe put into formal vocation programs or simply release into the world of work. Other nations do it earlier, we could too.

I don't see my job getting easier through these changes, but it hasn't under any President. The service aspect/joy I get from helping kids supercedes all the bullshit. But I'm not sure I'd do it again. Teacher retention numbers will keep dropping as the simple math of work hours/stress/vulnerability vs income simply isn't worth it.

Teaching isn't for the faint at heart- especially in this time of change. Everyone thinks they know how to do it better, or only give a shit about their own kid, while I've got 150 that I'm responsible for. You can be 99% great- but one unruly student, or one Crazy Karen mom, can sabotage your day at any moment.

 

[87 Penn St8]

But you fully supported vegetable Dementia Joe Biden and the Biden Crime Family Syndicate huh?

I'm a centrist asshole. I never support anyone fully. I didn't support Clinton for similar reasons as Trump and do not define myself by political party allegiance.

Today DT said "Only the Weak Won't Survive" his economic atom bomb. He is correct. I will survive but be eating more hot dogs.

Character counts. DT has less of it than any President in history. My opinion- you can have yours.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

And you got your economics degree where and when Nostradamus?

Penn State . ...
Masters in Labor Economics at St Francis...
Masters in Finance SCUM
and where did you get yours, Rock of Ages?

 

[PsuLIT]

The reality is we have a global economy and if somebody offers a better product at a lower price that's where people go to shop. I think the majority of people benefit from this. I don't think Jeff Bezos makes people poorer.

I'm willing to accept other countries paying lower wages as long as employment is "at will" and children aren't being abused. I'm not OK with countries that impose higher tariffs on U.S. goods. I'm also not OK with China being treated as a developing nation which gives them preferred borrowing rates and lower dues to the WTO. That's total B.S.

China has the second largest gdp in the world. They are not a developing nation.

 

[PsuLIT]

I'm a centrist asshole. I never support anyone fully. I didn't support Clinton for similar reasons as Trump and do not define myself by political party allegiance.

Today DT said "Only the Weak Won'T Survive" his economic atom bomb. He is correct. I will survive but be eating more hot dogs.

Character counts. DT has less of it than any President in history. My opinion- you can have yours.

I am an independent and didnt like either of my choices, but biden was a disaster and was also corrupt. Not a high character guy either, imho

 

[ryoder1]

Working in education, we have tons of people at the board of education who do nothing. The three main departments are the curriculum development department, DEI and my department, teacher retention and mentoring.

The curriculum departments for many subjects basically pick someone’s curriculum model by the book and the resources with it and then sit there and do nothing after the first two weeks of school. The only other times they do any kind of work is when at the end of each quarter the teachers give the district assessments and then the curriculum people analyze the numbers to reassess pacing and different materials needed. It’s not every curriculum department, but one specific one that I know of has six people who combined a work about 30 days a year.
The DEI department has a group of 5 or so who are responsible for making presentations that each high school gives monthly during homeroom. I happened to be observing a young teacher during their homeroom period where they gave the presentation. they were the same presentations that they gave two years ago, you could even look at the timestamp on the slides and see that they were from 2022.
My department is full of teachers who are in their last few years before retirement. Most of them are older women and our jobs are to circulate amongst the school system and mentor and help first and second year teachers so that we can retain them. Each of us have a list of a couple dozen that we are supposed to visit regularly and essentially keep a journal on with discussions that we’ve had with them, things that we should be doing as a county to help these young people and issues at specific schools that may only pertain to that school. We just ended the third quarter, and all of us had a meeting with our supervisor. I have my group of new teachers and their files on our OneDrive folder and probably have 3 to 4 pages for each one of these teachers. Some of the other mentors though have not kept track of a single meeting and some of them have only seen their people twice all year. I mentioned at our last group meeting how I noticed that a lot of schools are already running out of their budget for paper and the supervisor asked me how I knew so I told him that I regularly spend five or 10 minutes running copies for some of these new teachers just to give them a break. Not one single other person in my group had done that and as a matter of fact, a few of them suggested to me that I should not do it because they need to be able to manage their time better. I went off on a couple of them that they will make every excuse in the world for a student who never brings a pencil or is never prepared for class or refuses to get off their phone but a teacher that has to regularly make 20 extra copies because a kid can’t remember to bring theirs back from one day to the next, they want to yell at the teacher that say they need to have better time management because they need to take an extra 10 minutes every day to run more copies is unreal.
Just from those three departments, I could probably cut 20 people and it would have exactly 0 effect on the day-to-day management of our county system. The average salary of those 20 people is at least $150,000 as well so that’s 3 million just from them.

You just detailed what I have thought for years. Public school education has a bunch of do nothings who get paid for it and they don't care about the students. Not all of them, there are certainly excellent teachers who care in the public school education but these do nothings are running rampant throughout. And they get a pension when they are finished doing nothing for 30 years. What a crime. My son will be graduating from a private high school and it is run like a business. Teachers need to perform or they are out. The teachers there all care passionately about teaching, mentoring, challenging and developing their students to be the very best they can be.

 

[bdroc]

Truth. And declaring an "emergency" to legally justify the tariffs is dubious at best. This was anything but a deliberative process. I would have preferred some negotiations and input from industry, the Chamber, and other stakeholders to get to the point where tariffs of this magnitude were a last resort.

In 1934, Congress passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, which gave President Franklin Roosevelt the ability to change tariffs rates by 50% and negotiate bilateral trade agreements without additional approval from Congress.

Regardless I don't believe negotiating would have helped. Other countries won't give up their upper hand without pressure and American businesses don't want to pay the high price of U.S. labor. Do you really think Amazon wants to make iPhones in this country when they can pay $3/hr with Foxconn?

That said I agree it was too much too fast with too many countries. He could have raised tariffs from 2.5% to 5% and brought in an additional $77 billion without creating too much disruption. Then announce other selective tarrifs down the road if other countries refused to loosen their tariffs. The approach he's taken is very risky and could throw the world into recession. Nobody wins in that scenario.

 

[87 Penn St8]

I am an independent and didnt like either of my choices, but biden was a disaster and was also corrupt. Not a high character guy either, imho

Agreed. But of higher character than DT.

Hunter Biden is a spoiled peice of shit. I grew up in the Wilmington area and am of the age where his exploits were well known. He ends up dating his ex sister in law? Yes- strange indeed.

The Trump kids went to The Hill School and supposedly were privileged assholes too. Trump Junior dumps his wife during the campaign to marry Kim G whom he was likely having an affair with. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. His loss is apparently Tiger Woods' gain. Very Khardasian- like.

So yeah- I'm not defending Biden. We are talking about the taller of two midgets.

 

[joeaubie21]

Agreed. But of higher character than DT.

Hunter Biden is a spoiled peice of shit. I grew up in the Wilmingyon area and am of the age where his exploits were well known. He ends up dating his ex sister in law? Yes- strange indeed.

The Trump kids went to The Hill School and supposedly were privileged assholes too. Trump Junior dumps his wife during the campaign to marry Kim G whom he was likely having an affair with. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. His loss is apparently Tiger Woods' gain. Very Khardasian- like.

So yeah- I'm not defending Biden. We are talking about the taller of two midgets.

Biden, the worst piece of shit to sully the office. Obama is next.

 

[87 Penn St8]

You just detailed what I have thought for years. Public school education has a bunch of do nothings who get paid for it and they don't care about the students. Not all of them, there are certainly excellent teachers who care in the public school education but these do nothings are running rampant throughout. And they get a pension when they are finished doing nothing for 30 years. What a crime. My son will be graduating from a private high school and it is run like a business. Teachers need to perform or they are out. The teachers there all care passionately about teaching, mentoring, challenging and developing their students to be the very best they can be.

The key is that it is a JOB with an exchange for money. Many parents focusing on making big money ignore their kids and expect schools to "fix" them.

Well intentioned people can get fed up. It is not an easy job and is completely different than any of our experiences as students.

 

[bdgan]

You and I have the "benefit" of being inside the belly of the beast of Education. It is not a pretty situation.

The Curricular work being done by every district in my opinion is overload. If we have state standards, apply them curricularly across all public schools. Some can level as needed, or "enrich" within expanded self research projects- but each district administering slight differences across the Commonwealth is a lot of money for limited benefit.

We don't have a DEI department- so I cannot comment on that. There are different "themes" in terms of decorations in the lobby- but we don't have mandatory presentations.

The main issue I see is the compensation model which you describe in the Mentoring section. As a non merit based system- younger teachers get paid relatively poorly while learning the ropes. The only ways to get raises are to take courses to increase your degrees, or work longer. Another option is to do supplemental like coaching, or score keeping like I did for 15 years across almost all of our sports, or to work after school tutoring/Summer School.

Being in this for almost 20 years, and having worked in the corporate world for 15 years prior, there are marked differences. Basically in Education things never come off the plate when new policies, techniques etc come in. Individual plans for special needs students are booming. These are legal documents that can lead to lawsuits if not followed exactly. Language differences/ English proficiency does not change the mandate to educate and pass kids. Add in cell phones, tapes, aggressive parents and soft Administrators who really only care about their own career arc and rarely provide support to teachers who are being attacked, you see why older folks underdeliver. It doesn't make it right- but is a human reaction to feeling used for their whole career, so they milk their last years which dictate their pensions. Private schools are not necessarily the answer- as they won't serve the whole population. If the nation were to change child labor laws to #1 make up for deportation and #2 minimize investments in students who have proven they are not in school to learn- but only to distract and steal others' education. I think 16 years is a fair age to cut ties and maybe put into formal vocation programs or simply release into the world.

I don't see my job getting easier through these changes, but it hasn't under any President. The service aspect/joy I get from helping kids supercedes all the bullshit. But I'm not sure I'd do it again. Teacher retention numbers will keep rising as the simple math of work hours/stress/vulnerability vs income simply isn't worth it.

Teaching isn't for the faint at heart- especially in this time of change. Everyone thinks they know how to do it better, or only give a shit about their own kid, while I've got 150 that I'm responsible for. You can be 99% great- but one unruly student, or one Crazy Karen mom, can sabotage your day at any moment.

You would certainly know better than me about the specifics but I want to make a couple of general comments:

• Teacher pay varies a lot by state. NY pays $92k while Mississippi and South Dakota are below $50k.
• The U.S. spends more per student than all but a few countries.

A Gallup analysis published in March 2020 looked at data collected by the U.S. Department of Education in 2012, 2014, and 2017. It found that 130 million adults in the country have low literacy skills, meaning that more than half (54%) of Americans between the ages of 16 and 74 read below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level, according to a piece published in 2022 by APM Research Lab.

I think teaching is a noble profession so I'm certainly not criticizing teachers. I believe that some have a better argument about fair pay than others. I realize that it's difficult to teach some kids, especially those coming from broken homes or parents who don't participate in their child's education. My point is that 130 million Americans reading below a 6th grade level has nothing to do with spending.

 

[joeaubie21]

You would certainly know better than me about the specifics but I want to make a couple of general comments:

• Teacher pay varies a lot by state. NY pays $92k while Mississippi and South Dakota are below $50k.
• The U.S. spends more per student than all but a few countries.

A Gallup analysis published in March 2020 looked at data collected by the U.S. Department of Education in 2012, 2014, and 2017. It found that 130 million adults in the country have low literacy skills, meaning that more than half (54%) of Americans between the ages of 16 and 74 read below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level, according to a piece published in 2022 by APM Research Lab.

I think teaching is a noble profession so I'm certainly not criticizing teachers. I believe that some have a better argument about fair pay than others. I realize that it's difficult to teach some kids, especially those coming from broken homes or parents who don't participate in their child's education. My point is that 130 million Americans reading below a 6th grade level has nothing to do with spending.

School has become little more than daycare.

Without 2 parent involvement, it's a joke. Teachers can't do it all.

 

[lazydave841]

I realize that it's difficult to teach some kids, especially those coming from broken homes or parents who don't participate in their child's education.

This is the issue. How many kids these days have the same mother and father that are married or at least live together in the same home raising the kids? Entirely too many single parents or even grandparents raising kids and honestly, in some cases, you are lucky if they have that.

Parents giving a shît is probably the biggest factors in a child's educational success.

 

[ryoder1]

The key is that is is a JOB with an exchange for money. Many parents focusing on making big money ignore their kids and expect schools to "fix" them.

Well intentioned people can get fed up. It is not an easy job and is completely different than any of our experiences as students.

Parents expect basic levels of competence and commitment from teachers at their kid's schools. When there is not this they have the right to complain and advocate for their child.

 

[ryoder1]

You would certainly know better than me about the specifics but I want to make a couple of general comments:

• Teacher pay varies a lot by state. NY pays $92k while Mississippi and South Dakota are below $50k.
• The U.S. spends more per student than all but a few countries.

A Gallup analysis published in March 2020 looked at data collected by the U.S. Department of Education in 2012, 2014, and 2017. It found that 130 million adults in the country have low literacy skills, meaning that more than half (54%) of Americans between the ages of 16 and 74 read below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level, according to a piece published in 2022 by APM Research Lab.

I think teaching is a noble profession so I'm certainly not criticizing teachers. I believe that some have a better argument about fair pay than others. I realize that it's difficult to teach some kids, especially those coming from broken homes or parents who don't participate in their child's education. My point is that 130 million Americans reading below a 6th grade level has nothing to do with spending.

They all get pensions, don't forget that. Teaching is hard, don't get me wrong. I admire the good ones who care. It is the do nothings I have an issue with.

 

[PurposePitch]

I did quite well on the SATs and GMATs and I had a good career. I saved the window licking job for victims like you.

That'd be "SAT" and "GMAT," scoobs. They're not plural. The GMAT was remedial ... I got a 750 after "studying" (just re-memorizing some basic geometry formulas) for it the night before.

So I went to school in the 70s, too. We had preschool and kindergarten. Had running water and indoor toilets, too. What kind of a backward hellhole did you suffer in as a "ute"?

 

[PurposePitch]

If our orange dictator with grand expansionist and returning our country to past glory plans (but don't say the "H" word) isn't careful, we're going to skip retarding our economy back to its industrial phase, and go straight back to agrarian. Then we'll really be in bidness.

 

[PurposePitch]

Working in education, we have tons of people at the board of education who do nothing. The three main departments are the curriculum development department, DEI and my department, teacher retention and mentoring.

The curriculum departments for many subjects basically pick someone’s curriculum model by the book and the resources with it and then sit there and do nothing after the first two weeks of school. The only other times they do any kind of work is when at the end of each quarter the teachers give the district assessments and then the curriculum people analyze the numbers to reassess pacing and different materials needed. It’s not every curriculum department, but one specific one that I know of has six people who combined a work about 30 days a year.
The DEI department has a group of 5 or so who are responsible for making presentations that each high school gives monthly during homeroom. I happened to be observing a young teacher during their homeroom period where they gave the presentation. they were the same presentations that they gave two years ago, you could even look at the timestamp on the slides and see that they were from 2022.
My department is full of teachers who are in their last few years before retirement. Most of them are older women and our jobs are to circulate amongst the school system and mentor and help first and second year teachers so that we can retain them. Each of us have a list of a couple dozen that we are supposed to visit regularly and essentially keep a journal on with discussions that we’ve had with them, things that we should be doing as a county to help these young people and issues at specific schools that may only pertain to that school. We just ended the third quarter, and all of us had a meeting with our supervisor. I have my group of new teachers and their files on our OneDrive folder and probably have 3 to 4 pages for each one of these teachers. Some of the other mentors though have not kept track of a single meeting and some of them have only seen their people twice all year. I mentioned at our last group meeting how I noticed that a lot of schools are already running out of their budget for paper and the supervisor asked me how I knew so I told him that I regularly spend five or 10 minutes running copies for some of these new teachers just to give them a break. Not one single other person in my group had done that and as a matter of fact, a few of them suggested to me that I should not do it because they need to be able to manage their time better. I went off on a couple of them that they will make every excuse in the world for a student who never brings a pencil or is never prepared for class or refuses to get off their phone but a teacher that has to regularly make 20 extra copies because a kid can’t remember to bring theirs back from one day to the next, they want to yell at the teacher that say they need to have better time management because they need to take an extra 10 minutes every day to run more copies is unreal.
Just from those three departments, I could probably cut 20 people and it would have exactly 0 effect on the day-to-day management of our county system. The average salary of those 20 people is at least $150,000 as well so that’s 3 million just from them.

A failed engineer turned failed teacher doesn't know how to make paragraphs, and whines endlessly about how his profession is awful and everyone involved in it is incompetent or immoral ... but, you know, he's not, of course.

 

[87 Penn St8]

Parents expect basic levels of competence and commitment from teachers at their kid's schools. When there is not this they have the right to complain and advocate for their child.

Agreed. But it takes a village and not everyone is the same.

I'm a firm proponent that every pupil in my room deserves 1/28th of my time and energy for the time they are with me. That basic logic doesn't apply if a special needs pupil with adhd or a more challenging condition requires quadruple or more of your attention. There is only 100% in the attention pie. Schools use terms like scaffolding and other things to try and mask that fact. If one needs more, another gets less. Period.

FAPE- meaning that every child is entitled to a Free, Appropriate, Public, Education is the law- but runs counter to basic logic and "fairness."

Literacy is an issue- and going back to Curricular planning- should EVERY learner be forced to take the complete battery of English, Math, Science and Social Studies? How do you learn Chemistry if you are reading at a 6th grade level as a Junior? Do you "need" Chemistry or do you need to know how to read a car lease or mortgage agreement more?

I'm great at what I do and have been recognized locally and regionally. I don't give a shit about that. My customers are my kids, and I win many, many, many more than I lose. But I do lose from time to time, but not for lack of effort nor from lack if caring. I do not control all variables.

Living in the community where I teach has pros and cons. When seeing former students' names in the police report I'm rarely surprised. Schools are places where many individual "reality shows" play out.

On the plus side I bask in many long term relationships which are extremely positive. I serve my community and make a difference. I KNOW this. Their success is my success is OUR success.

But I'm just one cog in the wheel. I do sleep with a much clearer conscience than I did when I was in Corporate America. I do my work ethically- which was challenging before.

In Education I earn every cent I make. In my area of SEPA the poverty line for a family of 4 is $80,000. In my 19th year I'm just now making $84,000. So the raw numbers matter when placed in regional context.

But being a solid professional who overdelivers doesn't make me rich. In fact it doesn't meet the basic needs of a family where I live- necessitating my wife's income and side jobs/ Summer work.

As it stands the current teacher shortage will only grow. The pay doesn't make up for the reality of pressures and instability. Smart people will make their $ other ways and donate the excess while volunteering their time to causes they support.

That's the sad truth of the future unless things change for the better, which I don't believe is happening. A shake up is overdue, but chopping down the tree and waiting for the next one to grow will leave even more carnage in its' wake.

And the blame game will perpetuate.