When do we find out if we're a fraud? Ohio State? I mean, if we're being fair...Ohio State beat ND. We have nothing close to that on our resume.
Disregard--my mistake--sorry
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Team is not yet ready
- Thread starter olelion
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Disregard--my mistake--sorry
Roger that.
I made a similar point in a separate thread noting that the offense displayed against Illinois and Northwestern, both mediocre teams, would not get it done in Columbus where we'll be facing a top-5 D.
But as I also said, each game has a different dynamic. It could be that our O will perform at a higher level. It could be that our own top-5 D will cause the Buckeye O some big problems of its own. I do think the Bucks will crowd the LOS and force Drew to make throws.
You know, on the one hand I'm glad we'll have a bye week and a tune-up game before Ohio State. On the other hand, that also means we fans will likely spend two weeks recycling the debate conducted in this thread and others. It'll be nice to finally settle the argument on the field. One thing for sure: the only thing that matters in Columbus is the W. Whether with 500 yards offense or 50, just win, baby.
I expect you'll see a different offense in Columbus. And this time Franklin won't let up when he gets an early lead.
With the playoff expanding to 12 we basically need to make it every year. Allow for one "off" year every 5 years but we absolutely need to consistently be in the top 12.
Then we need to have a goal of going deep in the playoffs as in the title game and/or winning it every 4 or 5 years.
Yes I understand we have not won a NC since 1986. So what? Does that mean we lower expectations and settle for being a program that wins a NC maybe every 35 years?
We also need to have goals of beating OSU and Michigan fairly consistently. Like every other year or actually 2 out of 3 years. Whatever the exact metric is we need to demonstrate that we can beat them and be atop the B10 mountaintop on a regular basis. No, I am not saying we win the B10 every year but it can't be some distant, far fetched fantasy that it seems like it is now.
This comparison to OSU and Michigan is critical. Recruiting hangs in the balance and that is the lifeblood of the top programs. Also, if we start making the 12 team playoff but losing to OSU and Michigan every year then bowing out in the first round every year as a 10-12 seed then that ain't good either. We need to keep up with the Jones's and I see no reason why we can't (first class facilities, incredible fan base, high level recruiting, getting more aggressive with NIL etc).
I know! LOL. People think you are not a fan because your expectations are "too high/unrealistic". Crazy. I'm as big a fan as they come. I love PSU, and just want us to succeed and take our rightful place among college football elite teams.
Mostly agree but remember a lot of our recruiting classes don't finish top 10. We probably still have to win Half of out games against OSU, UM, OR, and USC in order to make the playoffs.
I think 10 playoff appearances every 15 years would be a lofty goal.
And why would you expect that? When we havent done it all year. You think we'll be able to run well and make explosive plays all of a sudden?
I think all 5 of those teams, realistically, would expect to make the playoffs most years. I expect the Big Ten and SEC to get 6 combined bids a year. Maybe 7. So maybe 3 out of 5 is more realistic than 4 out of 5 but it should be over 50% of the time. It will be much more difficult for ACC and Big XII schools to get in simply because they might need to auto bid to do so.
I think we'll be able to put points up and come out playing well early unlike Saturday.
The unusual thing on Saturday was Allar/receivers were out of sync. Hopefully they'll get that straightened out because OSU DBs are more athletic and will play press coverage.
The running game concerns aren't a one time issue.
Anecdotal quasi mem0ries but I recall some of these alleged offensive shootouts become defensive struggles and vice versa. Look at last year a fumble deep in our territory and a pick six gave OSU 14 points. 31-30 without that.
Every game is it's own story and all our speculating comes down to what we think, not what we know will happen.
We are running well and as for explosive plays, it doesn't take much to get 2 or 3 even though it's not happening yet.
We are running ok...not as expected after last year. Nick is avg 3.8 ypc and his longest run is 19 yds. And, while some of it is the defense overloading the box, certainly that isn't the only reason for his struggles, despite all the excuses that some have on this board. When your two longest runs of the season are by Trey Potts and Pribula, I don't think we are running as well as we need to. MY said yesterday in the media scrum how they have to be more explosive in the ground game...he didn't mince words. This 2-3 yds we get on most carries isn't good enough with the upcoming schedule.
Unless we keep moving the chains. So far it appears they are taking what the defense is giving them passing wise and throwing short. I heard somewhere that since Allar is relatively inexperienced they are hoping he panics and forces balls downfield. So far he hasn't and I think he's the only D1 starter with zero interceptions. Running the ball?
I'd like to see it better but so far it's working and grinding out the clock if our d can get TOs against OSU in two weeks we can beat them. Last year they scored 2 tds off TOs in the fourth quarter. Games against those two will be close, I'll take any advantage that leads to points.
Ohio State 44-31 Penn State (Oct 29, 2022) Box Score - ESPN
Box score for the Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions NCAAF game from October 29, 2022 on ESPN. Includes all passing, rushing and receiving stats.
This is last year's game, what is the score if PSU doesn't turn it over 2 times in the fourth? What were the yards per carry and total yards rushing? Passing? You'll see weak running, great yards passing, but at the end it was the turnovers
True - but last year we were pretty good and have the same two main running backs a year later plus another Big Ten 1000-yard rusher added. What's the issue? Has the OL regressed?
We're still a yard per carry better than 2021's 3.2 average (33-25 loss), so it could be worse.
There are various youtube clips that have discussed this. Last year against OSU we average just over 3 ypc, I think 3.4, but we passed for 371. We lost due to 2 fourth quarter TOs, one pick six and a fumble inside the 25 yard line.
We lost because J. T. Tuimoloau went nuts on us. He was like a one-man wrecking crew. Gotta avoid that this year.
The issue is OSU is in a different league than who we have played and they will be fired up and motivated by playing in front of their crowd.
The 3.8 yds pc versus the past competition could drop to 1.5 yds pc vs OSU. That changes everything, can't move the chains that well as we have longer 3rd downs against the best secondary we have faced.
We have to have the most creative offensive game plan of the season for this game. Heavy usage of TEs, passes to backs coming out in the flat and so on. Need both Singleton and Allen healthy and doing the old one two punch plus Potts for a change of pace.
We can win there but the run game needs to be stronger or a lot will fall on Allar's arm. Great that he doesn't turn the ball over but we would need an excellent game from him passing if we can't run effectively.
The final note is we cannot have any turnovers, no margin of error for that. Would be nice to get one or two.
I think Franklin's Penn State teams would have made a 12-team playoff at least 5 of his 9 years at the helm. Possibly 6. That's pretty darn good, given that his first two years were spent rebuilding after crippling sanctions and the Covid year in 2020, the only season his team clearly underperformed, was totally weird for all of college football.
In fact, when you think about it, the difference between him having a great (even "elite") record and merely an "excellent" one is two backbreaking 4th-quarter losses to Ohio State.
It's unfair in a lot of ways that the 2023 season will likely be judged in large part on what happens against Ohio State and Michigan. On the other hand, James is getting paid big bucks, and unfairness comes with the territory.
My own view is that if he has another year like last, capped off by a W in one of the marquis bowl games against a team like Alabama or Notre Dame and top-10 final ranking, that would be a highly successful season. But a lot of fans don't share my view and want more.
I do hope for victories against the Big-2...or at least one of them...and think it's achievable. However, Drew Allar is probably one year away from being a great QB, and even with a superb D, we may still need great QB play to beat the top-5 Bucks at the Shoe. Michigan at home? Different story.
I couldn't agree more with your last paragraph. It's achievable this year but next year is when it should be expected with Allar being a junior. I don't see any acceptable excuse next year.
Franklin's teams finished ranked in the top twelve 4 times in his first 9 seasons. I agree that it's difficult to count the first 2 years against him.
Duke is better than anyone we've played. Beating them, even in a close game, would be a good thing
I hate ND (by far my least favorite program) but they were clearly the better team that day. The score didn't accurately reflect that as it often doesn't.
Allar is pretty darn good for a first year starter. He's had a few bad plays, and still has things to work on, but he's made some really nice throws (see e.g. the pass to Dinkins vs. Iowa) that most PSU QBs would have struggled with after 4 years. He's also got a pretty weak receiving corps compared to what some of our past QBs have had to work with (McSorley had an embarrasment of riches in his first season as a starter - Allar would likely be up for the Heisman this year if he had that group to throw to). The most important stat is 5-0 and next is no interceptions. IMO we don't need a great QB to beat either team (well, assuming Harrison Jr. isn't running free past our secondary forcing us into a track meet we may not be ready for). We need a solid QB who can make a few plays here and there, extend some drives when necessary to give the defense a rest or burn clock, limit turnovers, stay within himself and above all just not do anything stupid that gives them easy points. Clifford pretty much gave the game to Ohio State last year as much as #44 for the Buckeyes made plays. If Allar can avoid doing that I feel like we have a good chance even if it is in Columbus.
Very good post. I'll add that JT for OSU crushed us with the pick six and other big plays. This is where I see our biggest problem being...OL, and most specifically the right side. I think we know our WR room, after KLS, will be marginal, and we may not be as big play oriented as last year, but PSU's success vs the big two will be determined how we do up front. And, for the most part, we have lost those specific battles. Unless Caedan, Wormley, etc turn into All-Americans in two weeks, we will have to game plan to give them help IMO.
Absolutely because Duke would be considered terrible if we played them…a bad win. But when someone else beats them, it’s a quality win.
All fair points.
For a first-year starter at this level of football, I think Drew's had a very decent -- not great -- year and shown why he was such a highly rated recruit. Though he's missed some throws and the occasional open receiver, he's played within himself and the offense...and made no critical mistakes.
No question, he's not been blessed with a stable of great receivers. Some people think our #1 guy at that position would be only the second option on a number of highly-ranked teams. And after you get past KLS, there's really no obvious consistent guy at the position.
On the other hand, we're solid and deep at TE...and I love how they've sometimes worked the RB's, especially Singleton, into the passing game.
All this said, my own view is that Ohio State's top-5 D and shutdown secondary is going to present the kind of challenge that Drew hasn't yet seen. I think the Bucks' strategy will be to crowd the LOS and take away the running game, which, as we've discussed, has question marks of its own.
They're going to force Drew to make the right reads and accurate throws in an offense that hasn't shown the ability to make big plays and to wide receivers who've had some problems getting separation even against less-then-great secondaries.
Therefore, I think we need to make the TE's and RB's a major part of the plan on offense. And we've got to hope that Drew hits some throws early and forces the Bucks to play our running game honestly. Factor in homefield advantage at the Shoe, and all this would be a tough test for any college QB in the country, let alone a first-year starter...regardless of his potential and talent.
Is Duke ranked? Their win over Clemson is better than any of our wins. When did I ever say ranked wins was what I used?
Iowa was ranked when we played them and they weren't a good team.
Drew seems like a really nice kid from the interviews I've seen, so it's possible he's not like this. But I think if I were him I'd want to show Coach Day and anyone there who doubted me just how wrong they were.
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