Thanks to the data provided by @cowcards we can now look at the 3-point takedown through a new lens. Check it out here.
Lights, Camera, ACTION
At the time the three pointer was approved the rationale was twofold:
Let's examine the first belief. Has there been more offensive action and risk taking? Well, with only two years worth of data it might be too soon to tell, but so far it looks like the answer is a resounding no. Not only has there not been more, there actually appears to be less.
Survey Says....
From 1993 to 2023, when all takedowns were worth 2 points and criteria was removed as a tiebreaker, for non-overtime matches ending in decision, or major decision (matches that go the full time and are not tech falls), the most common score was 3-2 (5.3%). With the advent of the 3-point takedown in the last two years, the most common score for these matches was 4-2 (7.9%).
One takedown matches have increased in frequency (+49%) even after they were already the most common outcome.
And sadly, during the last two tournaments the ninth most common score for non-TF, full-time matches was 2-0. That's right. A match with zero takedowns has entered the top 10 for full-time score since the rule change. For reference, 2-0 used to be the 27th most common score.
So?
One way to interpret this is that once the first takedown is secured wrestlers get into the mindset of keeping what they have rather than taking risk to try to add to it. The opposite of the stated goal.
A less direct measure is to look at the percentage of matches that go to OT.
Taken together you would be hard pressed to say they 3-point takedown has succeeded in rewarding risk-taking.
Lights, Camera, ACTION
At the time the three pointer was approved the rationale was twofold:
- The extra point rewards offensive actions and risk-taking.
- It creates a more appropriate point differential between takedowns and escapes.
Let's examine the first belief. Has there been more offensive action and risk taking? Well, with only two years worth of data it might be too soon to tell, but so far it looks like the answer is a resounding no. Not only has there not been more, there actually appears to be less.
Survey Says....
From 1993 to 2023, when all takedowns were worth 2 points and criteria was removed as a tiebreaker, for non-overtime matches ending in decision, or major decision (matches that go the full time and are not tech falls), the most common score was 3-2 (5.3%). With the advent of the 3-point takedown in the last two years, the most common score for these matches was 4-2 (7.9%).
One takedown matches have increased in frequency (+49%) even after they were already the most common outcome.
And sadly, during the last two tournaments the ninth most common score for non-TF, full-time matches was 2-0. That's right. A match with zero takedowns has entered the top 10 for full-time score since the rule change. For reference, 2-0 used to be the 27th most common score.
So?
One way to interpret this is that once the first takedown is secured wrestlers get into the mindset of keeping what they have rather than taking risk to try to add to it. The opposite of the stated goal.
A less direct measure is to look at the percentage of matches that go to OT.
- 1993 - 2023: 8%
- 2024 - 2025: 10%.
Taken together you would be hard pressed to say they 3-point takedown has succeeded in rewarding risk-taking.
