Some of the 4th and 5th year (in 2018) players that you refer to will not be on the team, as that is how a team with about 15 or 16 scholarship players playing in their last year of eligibility can recruit a full class of 25 players.
Wright may or may not be back, but he has had 4 years to improve and at this point is at best an average OT. I believe the improvement will be from Gonzalez, McGovern, Bates, Menet, Gellerstadt, Miranda, and Thorpe, with the outside chance that a player such as Holme might surprise as well.
- The OL loses Mahon but returns everybody else. Wright, Gonzalez, McGovern, Bates, Menet, and Thorpe have the potential for big improvement but they're going to have to prove it.
Agree on Sanders and Robinson. And Brown should not be forgotten. Slade may be too good to redshirt.
- McSorley should be back and Sanders/Robinson can fill in for Barkley. I don't expect much of a drop off.
Also Dalton. And could Freiermuth and/or Kuntz play as true freshmen. Hillary could block better than Gesicki. so the run game will improve next year with any TE that even makes contact with his assignment on a regular basis. I believe Kuntz is enrolling early.
- Gesicki graduates. Can Holland or Bowers play? Can they block?
The great thing about this year with Hamilton was that he had loads of experience as well as confidence. So he pretty much stepped in from the word go as a replacement for Godwin as the go to guy. Johnson should be that guy next year. And there is plenty of talent that will compete to play WR (3 redshirt FR and Shorter) along with the improvement that Johson, Charles, Polk & Thompkins make in the off season.
- WR loses Blacknall & Hamilton. Hamilton will be tough to replace but we should be OK with Johnson, Charles, Polk, & Thompkins.
Who knows if Brown will be back. If Buchholz is healthy, along with a bigger Miller we have two solid starters. And I believe Gross-Matos will push to start, with Toney and Simmons and Joseph all improving to provide better depth and better run defense than what we have seen lately. To me Gross-Matos is already better than Simmons and Toney and GM will make the biggest improvement as this will be his first off season in the S&C program as well as within Spring practices. A true freshman like Smith could come in and contribute just like GM did this year.
- DE should see the most improvement with Brown, Buchholz, Miller, Toney, & Simmons.
Great to see Shelton and Jordan get playing time this past week. They will be needed when the top 3 move on... Shelton looks petty big and Hansard and Bolds will also have a chance to earn playing time. Givens will be the leader at DT, with Windsor, and possibly Buchholz if the DE's mature and he can move....
- DT will be a drop off after losing Cothran, Cothren, & Chavis. Givens, Windsor, & Jordan will have to improve.
Cabinda will be hard to replace, but that's the nature of college football. If Bowen comes back and moves to MLB we could field a comparable starting group, in Bowen, Farmer and Brown. How will Miller develop, and what about the 3 redshirt LB's? Unknowns to us, but not to CJF and Pry. If Toney was moving it would have been done, but who knows.
- LB is a problem with Cabinda & Smith gone. Parsons? To late to move Toney?
I believe CJF said that Oruwariye is coming back and that is great news, as he is our most aggressive CB to the ball in the air. Nice 4 with Reid, Wade and CF. McPherson also got PT this year, although he looks like the least physical of the top 5. And 2 CB's that redshirted this year, Johnson and Brown, will compete for PT as well.
- CB should be fine. Lose Campbell & Haley but gain Reid and have Oruwariye, Wade, and Castro-Fields.
All players are unproven until they actually start, but Scott and Monroe have gotten some PT and have proven to be ball hawks on special teams. That's how Safety's develop. And with Taylor and Sutherland also in the mix for PT, will there be a need to move a CB to Safety? Maybe not. Maybe 2018 is the year a true Safety plays some on special teams, Humphries or Young. Allen's run support will be missed, especially because the LB injuries and lack of size at DE this year make our run defense dependent upon him....
- S might have trouble replacing Allen & Apke. Scott, Taylor, & Monroe are unproven.
- K is a mystery with Davis graduating. Pinegar?
Don't forget Barbir. And could the kicker out with the eating disorder reappear?
your point re who returns is valid. there are a large number of players being called JR, who are actually seniors with a 5th year available if PSU and they want to stay. some may try the Sickels route = graduate as true seniors and leave their 5th year for NFL try. Brown might be the next DE to do that. we also could have some JR players who are eligible for the draft that may try and take it. i could see Johnson and Bates trying this route.
big factor in 2018 will be whether McSorley decides to return for 5th year. he is a graduating senior this year, and could move on and try NFL. many debate his ability on this, but he may try. That leaves Tommy Stevens. IF Trace decides to take 5th year, and Tommy graduates this year, he might do a grad transfer leaving 2019 QB unknown.
if you look at this roster, over 60% are eligible for the NFL draft, with a good number graduating so they could move on to something else. the team could look quite a bit different next year.