Thought on tOSU match

[Callthestall]

I have been going thru the matchups on Saturday and feel there are 2 scenario's where Penn State can win.
Scenario 1:
Assuming the rankings hold on matchups, Penn State is going to need 2 wrestlers to get pins. Retherford and someone else. Who would you think would be the other wrestler to nail a Buckeye?
Scenario 2:
Assuming Penn State only has one pin going into 197 and the match is close. Obviously we need an upset by our wrestler. If it is a tie match or we're losing by a couple points Rasheed will have to wrestle for a pin. However if we have a couple point lead going into the 197 match does Cael think Cessar has a better chance on winning a close match against Moore?

 

[Ian]

PSU will win if they minimize damage at 125, 133, 157, and 285. Maximize at 149 and 165 and win the toss ups at 141, 174, 184, and 197....

The four buckeye fav’s could put up as much as 20 pts. Some interesting options but the Nits will need to go for broke if that scenario plays out.

 

[aalion]

there are a number of scenarios that don't involve 2 pins nor 6 wins where PSU can still get it done. If Lee and Cenzo can match bonus from Nato and Jordan, Zain pins while Snyder doesn't. Split the other 4 and PSU wins. while it would take some very strong PSU efforts to make that happen, it isn't crazy.

 

[4INSBU]

Match come down to 174 and 184. I don’t feel good about 184 and Bo.

 

[nitlion6]

Everybody needs to relax about Bo.
Every Penn State kid will have his games legs Saturday and Bo has this.

 

[mvattivo]

Everybody needs to relax about Bo.
Every Penn State kid will have his games legs Saturday and Bo has this.

Martin has been wrestling VERY good this season. However, I still really like Bo's chances. The nice thing about Bo, is he can pin ANYONE, so, that result is not out of the question. Martin is pretty dynamic too, so, I guess you can't rule out him catching Bo either. Again, I like Bo under the bright lights. Lets not forget how many times Bo has come through in duals that started to look a bit dangerous. He is clutch.

 

[tikk10]

The only times Bo has lost to Myles it's been in a tournament setting. Bo has beaten Myles every time in a dual scenario. This could have something to do with times between weigh-ins, or it could be merely coincidental.

 

[nitlion6]

Martin has been wrestling VERY good this season. However, I still really like Bo's chances. The nice thing about Bo, is he can pin ANYONE, so, that result is not out of the question. Martin is pretty dynamic too, so, I guess you can't rule out him catching Bo either. Again, I like Bo under the bright lights. Lets not forget how many times Bo has come through in duals that started to look a bit dangerous. He is clutch.

We have been watching Bo wrestle some tough kids and looking somewhat sluggish and vulnerable. Combine that with Myles has looked really good and his two victories against Bo and everybody is in the typical PSU doom and gloom.

The sluggish, vulnerable and slightly slower Bo is a Bo competing while still training to drive to a peak.
Saturday we get to see a fresh and ready to sprint with the ponies Bo.

 

[Lyons212]

We have been watching Bo wrestle some tough kids and looking somewhat sluggish and vulnerable. Combine that with Myles has looked really good and his two victories against Bo and everybody is in the typical PSU doom and gloom.

The sluggish, vulnerable and slightly slower Bo is a Bo competing while still training to drive to a peak.
Saturday we get to see a fresh and ready to sprint with the ponies Bo.

Exactly right. The team has trained very hard for most of January because the scheduled allowed for it. This fatigued team over the last 6 duals has a record of 49-10 in the matches wrestled, with six of those losses coming at 125. They will be ready to go the next 2 Saturdays.

Even though Martin looks improved this year, Bo will beat him as long as Bo takes what is given. The two times Bo has lost to Martin were because he tried to force a big move that was not there. He needs to wrestle a tactical match like he did against Dean.

 

[tomsc]

I put tOSU as a 1-2 point favorite at this point. I don't think we have to get 2 falls to win, but we need some combination of the following realistic possibilities (in addition to winning the 3 bouts where we are slight favorites):
1. Upset at 197
2. The possible move of Lee & Zain up a weight. We could possibly convert a TF loss (157) to a Dec loss (141) which could save us 2 points if Lee and Zain do the same up a weight.
3. Hold to MD's at 125 and 285

Note: If Zain can get a fall and tOSU not get a fall, then if the final score is tied we win the tiebreaker.

 

[burnsie1983]

I've seen at least a couple of people predicting or suggesting bonus point wins for Nick Lee. Am I being pessimistic by thinking this match is a tossup? McKenna has been a top 5ish wrestler most of his college career. He was third as a freshman, and although he didn't place last year, he came in as the 3 seed. He had a loss to Thorn (who may just have his number, it seems) and then he had a brutal consi matchups with Jaydin Eierman. I think Lee can hang with him, and if he wins, it'll be his best win to date. Bonus just seems unlikely, to me.

 

[mvattivo]

I've seen at least a couple of people predicting or suggesting bonus point wins for Nick Lee. Am I being pessimistic by thinking this match is a tossup? McKenna has been a top 5ish wrestler most of his college career. He was third as a freshman, and although he didn't place last year, he came in as the 3 seed. He had a loss to Thorn (who may just have his number, it seems) and then he had a brutal consi matchups with Jaydin Eierman. I think Lee can hang with him, and if he wins, it'll be his best win to date. Bonus just seems unlikely, to me.

Lee is talented enough to bonus if he gets momentum going, but, I agree that it is unlikely. I also agree that some are under-rating McKenna. I think Lee is a slight favorite, but, I put this as a toss-up as well.

 

[burnsie1983]

Lee is talented enough to bonus if he gets momentum going, but, I agree that it is unlikely. I also agree that some are under-rating McKenna. I think Lee is a slight favorite, but, I put this as a toss-up as well.

McKenna has given up bonus points just 3 times in his college career, and two of those were to Thorn. If Lee manages to win and get bonus....what a statement that'll be.

 

[funkisfun12]

McKenna has given up bonus points just 3 times in his college career, and two of those were to Thorn. If Lee manages to win and get bonus....what a statement that'll be.

All 3 of those bonus losses have occurred in the last 11 months. Might be something to consider as well.

 

[tomsc]

McKenna has given up bonus points just 3 times in his college career, and two of those were to Thorn. If Lee manages to win and get bonus....what a statement that'll be.

I agree with you Burnsie, I have been thinking the same. McKenna has seen relatively limited action this year (10 matches) and has only wrestled 2 guys in the top 20--#10 Thorn (MD loss) and #13 Cole Weaver (Dec win). He was #2 at one point in early season. Thorn seems to be a tough match-up for him, but when Thorn pinned him at NCAA's it was in OT. I think his ranking at #11 as a little low relative to his ability--he only has the one loss so far. I rate McKenna and Lee basically a toss-up, with a slight edge to Lee.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Exactly right. The team has trained very hard for most of January because the scheduled allowed for it. This fatigued team over the last 6 duals has a record of 49-10 in the matches wrestled, with six of those losses coming at 125. They will be ready to go the next 2 Saturdays.

Even though Martin looks improved this year, Bo will beat him as long as Bo takes what is given. The two times Bo has lost to Martin were because he tried to force a big move that was not there. He needs to wrestle a tactical match like he did against Dean.

The bolded part is what people seem to forget and or ignore re Bo vs Martin.

 

[JBott]

We have been watching Bo wrestle some tough kids and looking somewhat sluggish and vulnerable. Combine that with Myles has looked really good and his two victories against Bo and everybody is in the typical PSU doom and gloom.

The sluggish, vulnerable and slightly slower Bo is a Bo competing while still training to drive to a peak.
Saturday we get to see a fresh and ready to sprint with the ponies Bo.

I hope you are correct!

 

[dunkej01]

the news says the flu is bad this year....the word on the street is c-bus is not immune to the flu.......hmmm

Im sure it will be handled ......

 

[golfer1922]

Exactly right. The team has trained very hard for most of January because the scheduled allowed for it. This fatigued team over the last 6 duals has a record of 49-10 in the matches wrestled, with six of those losses coming at 125. They will be ready to go the next 2 Saturdays.

Even though Martin looks improved this year, Bo will beat him as long as Bo takes what is given. The two times Bo has lost to Martin were because he tried to force a big move that was not there. He needs to wrestle a tactical match like he did against Dean.

I agree Lyons212 with your training very hard in January comment. Also, folks should remember that Martin was out of gas in the Iowa dual weeks ago and was lucky their wasn't more ticks left on the clock. I think Bo has conditioning on his side against him. Go NITS !!!!!!!!

 

[86PSUPaul]

CP and Willie say that Martin looks great in the first period and terrible in the third. I hope Bo will show he is much better conditioned. And I only share Willie and CP because I have not seen any of his matches.
I do agree the times he beat Bo were because Bo was trying to push moves not necessarily there. I hope he does not feel pressure to make up for Nolf's absence and force something.
But I do have full faith in him!!!!

 

[bwfight]

I think we're going to see whomever Penn State sends out in the next couple of weeks perform at a very high level. Whether or not it ends up being enough to beat the Tanners remains to be seen, but I like our chances. I think our guys wrestle at their best in big moments for the most part, and the home field advantage against Ohio State and Iowa will create an electric atmosphere. I am predicting a close victory over Ohio State and a convincing win over Iowa.

 

[ga.lion]

CP and Willie say that Martin looks great in the first period and terrible in the third. I hope Bo will show he is much better conditioned. And I only share Willie and CP because I have not seen any of his matches.
I do agree the times he beat Bo were because Bo was trying to push moves not necessarily there. I hope he does not feel pressure to make up for Nolf's absence and force something.
But I do have full faith in him!!!!

I think last year's Bo learned plenty in winning that title. Doesn't need to take a gamble and he'll win on endurance in the 3rd.

 

[aalion]

I hope you guys are right about Bo's endurance being better than Martins. Not sure I see that - seems like Bo has looked tired in the 3rd at times over his career too. Even end of the NCAA title match he had to hold on for dear life (of course, Dean is super elite so that might not mean much).

 

[El-Jefe]

I agree Lyons212 with your training very hard in January comment. Also, folks should remember that Martin was out of gas in the Iowa dual weeks ago and was lucky their wasn't more ticks left on the clock. I think Bo has conditioning on his side against him. Go NITS !!!!!!!!

Folks should also remember that Martin won that match 17-8. Maybe it's not the best evidence of Bo having an advantage.

 

[nerfstate]

Yeah, I wish I could in good conscience tell you how confident I am in a Bo win on Saturday. The thing is, I feel like all outcomes (fall, TF, MD, D) are equally likely for either wrestler at this point. History says MyMar is streaky, but he's been pretty consistent this year. Attack rate is way up, same lightning quickness, same keen feel, even more strength. He has sagged late, it's true. I know Bo is just great when the lights are hot though, hope he can get it done.

 

[4INSBU]

I think last year's Bo learned plenty in winning that title. Doesn't need to take a gamble and he'll win on endurance in the 3rd.

If MyMar has a lead in the third he will run away and stall like crazy.

 

[dsites52]

If MyMar has a lead in the third he will run away and stall like crazy.

You bring up a good point. I wish that stalling was called for the entire match, like they call stalling for a kid who’s up in the third and gets on his horse. I think it’s ridiculous when a kid stalls for 6:30 and then gets a stalling point in the third when he’s taking desperation shots after the opponent lets off the gas

 

[a_mshaffer]

You bring up a good point. I wish that stalling was called for the entire match, like they call stalling for a kid who’s up in the third and gets on his horse. I think it’s ridiculous when a kid stalls for 6:30 and then gets a stalling point in the third when he’s taking desperation shots after the opponent lets off the gas

yep.. Can's stand it. Ref takes account of the score and decides on stalling in the 3rd when action in the first was little to none. We actually see that against the Nitts quite often. Lots of folks don't want to shoot and not a lot happens in the first.

 

[lionlover]

I've seen at least a couple of people predicting or suggesting bonus point wins for Nick Lee. Am I being pessimistic by thinking this match is a tossup? McKenna has been a top 5ish wrestler most of his college career. He was third as a freshman, and although he didn't place last year, he came in as the 3 seed. He had a loss to Thorn (who may just have his number, it seems) and then he had a brutal consi matchups with Jaydin Eierman. I think Lee can hang with him, and if he wins, it'll be his best win to date. Bonus just seems unlikely, to me.

+1

 

[nitlion6]

yep.. Can's stand it. Ref takes account of the score and decides on stalling in the 3rd when action in the first was little to none. We actually see that against the Nitts quite often. Lots of folks don't want to shoot and not a lot happens in the first.

It has been going on forever. Situational stalling. It is a bit irritating.

 

[RoarLions1]

It has been going on forever. Situational stalling. It is a bit irritating.

Don't disagree, though I've noticed too often that neither guy is pushing the action when there's no stall calls...or at the least there's not enough shooting to differentiate himself from the other guy. Has to be obvious, as the ref isn't out there counting shots (think Nolf). Pushing the action and being offensive-minded is, imo, what makes this sport exciting. Here's the dual meet stats for stalls for and against for our guys...the first number after each name is the stall call against an opponent, the second number is the stalls against the PSU wrestler. In total, our guys earn double the stall calls against opponents as they have called on them (54 vs 27).

125: Devin Schnupp 3 5
133: Corey Keener 5 3
133: Dom Giannangeli 0 1
141: Nick Lee 7 2
141: Jered Cortez 2 1
149: Zain Retherford 2 0
157: Jason Nolf 5 0
165: Vincenzo Joseph 8 1
165: Bo Pipher 1 2
174: Mark Hall 8 1
184: Bo Nickal 3 2
197: Anthony Cassar 2 3
197: Shakur Rasheed 1 0
285: Nick Nevills 7 6
TOTALS 54 27

 

[pawrestlersintn]

The crowd Saturday night better be calling for stalling EARLY AND OFTEN. The moment an OSU kid gets a lead, or gets in potential bonus trouble, they'll be backing up and heading for the edge. We have to get in the ref''s ear as early in matches as we can, without sounding like Iowa.

I won't even mind if that guy on the East side calls for it before wrestling begins.

 

[PSUisawesome]

For what it's worth Mark looked unbelievablely sharp against Rutgers.This is a very different scenario than Mark's than the same time last year. Mark is putting together a solid year and should have the momentum. We may see him getting back points. Very excited.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Really looking forward to tonight's test. I'm hoping Rec Hall is worth 3-4 points by itself and that swings a close bout in our favor. Regardless, the most important things for tonight is for everyone to wrestle well and come out of this dual without injury. #eyeonmarch

 

[tabenn]

thought on line up change??
Zain to 157 to Crush Jordan again
Pipher at 149--his natural weight

this does not happen much in College==im thinking Zains results are the same either way, but limit the damage at the other weight--Pipher has a gas tank Hayes does not.

 

[PSU Mike]

thought on line up change??
Zain to 157 to Crush Jordan again
Pipher at 149--his natural weight

this does not happen much in College==im thinking Zains results are the same either way, but limit the damage at the other weight--Pipher has a gas tank Hayes does not.

Pipher went 0-2 at the Scuffle. He’d only have a puncher’s chance (5-10%) b/c he’s traditionally been a pinner.

 

[El-Jefe]

thought on line up change??
Zain to 157 to Crush Jordan again
Pipher at 149--his natural weight

this does not happen much in College==im thinking Zains results are the same either way, but limit the damage at the other weight--Pipher has a gas tank Hayes does not.

No. Right now he is the Nolf insurance plan. Let him eat and get used to 157s, and hopefully he isn't needed but at least will be ready.

 

[Ian]

No line up changes for Cael except possibly Kuhn at 125. Duals are very valuable for training and seeding and Cael won’t move off his schedule. Squad is rounding into tournament shape and I believe he won’t jeopardize that for a dual. Squad will be fired up at all weights and buckeyes will be looking down a loaded gun. Bonus for the Bucks is a real possibility at 125, 157, and 285. Bonus for the Nits is likely at 149 and 165. The dual hinges on who gets the decisions at 133, 141, 174-197. I like the Nits 20-18.

 

[RVARZR]

No. Right now he is the Nolf insurance plan. Let him eat and get used to 157s, and hopefully he isn't needed but at least will be ready.

I truly think Nolf wrestling post season is the plan. If Cael had doubts about Jason being ready come March I think a redshirt would have been pulled.

I think Pipher does man 157 until Jason is ready.

 

[El-Jefe]

I truly think Nolf wrestling post season is the plan. If Cael had doubts about Jason being ready come March I think a redshirt would have been pulled.

I think Pipher does man 157 until Jason is ready.

Agreed -- but you always have a backup plan, right?