I agree, but also need the over 70 crowd to get vaccinated as well to really, really see the numbers go way down. That group is also very vulnerable. Once you have all medical workers (not just hospital but dermatologists and dentists, etc....who are seeing huge amounts of sick people daily), first responders, and anybody over 70, plus under 70 people that are very high risk (ie...the double co-morbidity) then this Covid hospitalization and fatality rate goes down by 80% and hopefully back some semblance of normal. Question is how long to get all those groups fully vaccinated. I think the realistic answer is by Memorial day. Then summer and rest of year is all about the mass vaccination of everybody else.
Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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I agree, but also need the over 70 crowd to get vaccinated as well to really, really see the numbers go way down. That group is also very vulnerable. Once you have all medical workers (not just hospital but dermatologists and dentists, etc....who are seeing huge amounts of sick people daily), first responders, and anybody over 70, plus under 70 people that are very high risk (ie...the double co-morbidity) then this Covid hospitalization and fatality rate goes down by 80% and hopefully back some semblance of normal. Question is how long to get all those groups fully vaccinated. I think the realistic answer is by Memorial day. Then summer and rest of year is all about the mass vaccination of everybody else.
In some states they are. In others like NJ and PA, they're waiting until next week.
Nope, this week.
Over 120 nursing facilities in Pa. to administer COVID vaccine this week
Out of Pa.'s 15,086 COVID-related deaths, 8,470 have occurred in residents from nursing or personal care facilities.
www.ydr.com
Nope, this week.
Over 120 nursing facilities in Pa. to administer COVID vaccine this week
Out of Pa.'s 15,086 COVID-related deaths, 8,470 have occurred in residents from nursing or personal care facilities.www.ydr.com
so let's say that in January a bulk of nursing homes across country get shot #1 and in February shot #2. There is going to be some lag in hospitlization and fatality rates as people already in hospital who are too sick to get the vaccine, etc...so we should start to see those numbers coming down significantly in late February and March, I would think. Maybe even in early February start to see some downward trend as even the first shot gives some level of immunity.
Now your talking. First shot gets something in the neighborhood of 60% immunity, IIRC. And it is my belief that hospitals and nursing homes are the ground zero as staff gets infected, their families then get, them those spread it further. Get this segment under control and it will make a significant difference.
Nursing homes cut way down.....means less people in hospitals and ICUs, ......means hospital staff safer......less spread every where.
Nope, this week.
Over 120 nursing facilities in Pa. to administer COVID vaccine this week
Out of Pa.'s 15,086 COVID-related deaths, 8,470 have occurred in residents from nursing or personal care facilities.www.ydr.com
I had read somewhere that this got pushed back to next week. I'm trying to find where I saw that.
Sucks how they keep quoting "more contagious" as gospel, and I am sure some of the public misinterpret is as more deadly too. IDK this has yet to be proven. This strain has already been documented in more than a few countries from Britain to South Africa and now the USA.
accurate, but inaccurate. For clarification:
the British variant has been found in several other countries, including the USA.
there are a few other variants that have some similarities to the British variant, but are separate variants. (I think the specific number is five, but I don't have time to verify that.) The South Africa variant seems to be every bit as contagious as the British variant.
Much like the strain that we got the same warnings about over the summer, is it really more contagious? Or does it just become the dominant strain?
We have the most data on the Pfizer vaccine. The 1st shot gives someone approximately 50% immunity, and it takes about 10-14 days for the immunity to start to be built up to those levels in the body. The 2nd shot, given 21 days later, boosts the immunity up to about 95%.
Pretty amazing they would do that without some research on it. And am surprised that the pharma companies didn’t do some research. They could have had some segments take the vaccines at various intervals to see what the affects would be.
the feds and the manufacturers are getting the vaccines out. the issue is at the local sites. vaccination rate is very slow. some of it is due to the way they are approaching this, and there is even some hesitation now about "fear of vaccinating the wrong people early". Fear of negative PR around not following the proper order of people, which has been getting changed at the local level. My brother told me that Ohio suddenly changed the >75 yr old to >65 yr old population. there is also quite a bit of documentation and paperwork for the vaccination sites. IF they do not have an automated system, their vaccination rate will be slow. this is not rocket science, but the A dose and B dose need to be tightly coupled in the scheduling. I believe all vaccination sites are being told to use all their vaccine inventory - and not hold back for B dose. That does not mean they are doing it. Local becomes the limitation - and some states may not be that effective running the local sites (I think the state DHs are coordinating their sites).
there are probably many strains out there, as that would be normal. also, in watching the original Pfizer presentation, their CEO discussed the strength of the mRNA platform was that it can cover this natural evolution that all viruses tend to have (assume he is accurate). HOW did these scientists in the UK validate with scientific method that the particular strain they found was "more easily spread"?
more contagious does not automatically imply more deadly.
Possibility of one-dose vaccine raises hopes for faster rollout
The first coronavirus vaccine shots administered across the country have raised hopes for a breakthrough in the fight against COVID-19, but experts are now raising an even more hopeful possibi…thehill.com
That said, since the chance of surviving covid if you are under the age of 70 are pretty damned good (in the 50-69 group the cdc has it at 2 in 1000 won't make it; whereas in those over 70, it's 5 in 100), I'd carefully weigh the risks of taking an unproven vaccine.
Might not have that luxury if they're going to force your hand by denying travel to those without their papers....my italy or bust wife has made me quite familiar with my options should it fall that way
another key in addition to the vaccine is therapy and treatment of those with the virus now. with the vaccine focus, this seems to have gone by the wayside. if you notice, the famous politicians and celebs for the most part all get cured of the virus, even if they are in the high risk category. what magic is being used for them?
Really good points. My understanding is that there are some wonderful therapeutics that might not be so readily available to joe and mary average... and if more money was focused there we might have a better option for dealing with this mess than a questionable vaccine du jour that is not proven to work on the latest and greatest covid variants (with more likely to follow).
One man's opinion.. but I'd really like to see more focus on treatment.
From what I understand the difference is that the new variant has a lot more of the protein spikes the virus uses to attach to cells and inject its RNA. They say it is 70% more contagious because it has 70% more spikes.......not sure it would actually translate that way. Also, Moderna and Pfizer believe their vaccines will work on it if that is the only difference since the mRNA in the vaccines cause the body to make antibodies and don’t directly attack the viruses.
And although that might improve some, need an order of magnitude type of change that I don’t see happening. To date, the first few weeks of this roll out have been bad. No way states have ability to do this themselves this fast at this level. What, something like 2+ million in over two weeks. That isn’t even 1% of the population. At this rate we’ll still be in Covid at this time next year as that is just way, way too slow.
What a bunch of mumbo jumbo Do you two even bother to read things posted in this thread?
Drug companies are actively working on therapeutics. SARS-CoV-2 is a very challenging virus, and COVID-19 is a particularly difficult disease, as it causes a slew of problems in patients.
Monoclonal antibodies, which I've posted about several times in this thread, appear to be the best therapeutics that have been developed to combat COVID-19. However, they take time to develop, are pretty expensive, and are not easy to administer (like a pill or a shot). An earlier post in this thread addresses this:
Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
As long as we keep using pcr tests at such high thresholds, people could test positive long after getting the vaccine and the media will claim it's because the vaccine doesn't work
bwi.forums.rivals.com
Early on, many of the treatments were experimental, and in very short supply. I forget the exact sequence of events, but initially patients needs special authorization as the drugs were still experimental, then they had FDA approval but were in very limited supply so there were only being used for certain patients (mostly those that most readily fit the profile of those that the drugs would help), to now they are more available (relatively speaking; still not in great supply) but a number of doctors are electing to not use them due to the hurdles it takes to administer them.
As for "famous politicians and celebs," there aren't a lot that fit that definition that have gotten the advanced therapeutics, and to keep away this thread from turning political, I'll avoid discussing that.
As for "a questionable vaccine du jour that is not proven to work on the latest and greatest covid variants (with more likely to follow)," that's just total BS. So far, only two vaccines have been approved in the US. Both appear to be very effective against every variant of SARS-CoV-2 that has been identified. A statement like what I quoted shows absolutely no understanding of how the vaccines work, and what constitutes a variant. There have been a few articles proving that these two vaccines work against the British variant, which is the ones that has gotten the most press of late. I can't remember if I posted links to them; I think not, as the info seemed so obvious to anyone with any knowledge about the science.
Lastly, doctors continue to share information amongst themselves as to the most effective treatments they are employing, as well has posting in doctor forums as to new ideas they have about potential treatments (and follow-ups to those ideas by those that experiment with the treatments).
Somewhat surprising. Still a lot of questions about the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, in large part because they so screwed up their Phase 3 trial. The UK approved the vaccine earlier this week. In the US the FDA required additional testing to resolve the problems with the initial Phase 3 trial results, and as such it appears that April is the earliest that this vaccine will be evaluated by the FDA's vaccine advisory board.
The states are sending orders to Pfizer and Moderna directly. The shipments go to the points of dispensing ("PODS"), such as hospitals. the delivery to these sites is working, but needles in the arm are not keeping up. there is substantial documentation needed in the process, and if a site is not ready, their vaccination rate will be very slow. the site needs to be able to do the following:
- Provide a way to identify and vet qualified people. Most sites are focused on vaccinating their own people, so this is okay.
- They need a way to create appointment schedules for people to accept, or a way to organize the flow.
- they need a way to collect all the relevant data from each person during the appointment scheduling. If they don't do this, they have on site work manually = very slow.
- they need to match drug lot number to people on site. this is very manually intensive if you do not have a system.
- they have to record adverse impacts on site into the VAERS system during a 15 min hold after vaccine.
- they have to create inventory tracking and chain of custody. there is a lot of paperwork here, unless they have a system.
- they need to monitor temps on each lot, and collect history multiple times per hour.
- Nightly inventory needs to be sent to FDA/CDC. if you do this manually of via a CSV file, it is very labor intensive. you really need an HL7 integration to the CDC site (there is a spec, but not many using it)
- There is daily reporting of vaccines to the state Dept of Health. this is a large manual form set, but some states will allow HL7 integration, if you can do it.
- The POD needs a management reporting system to manage this process.
I know it is hard to do. That is the point. This whole false narrative of the country being vaccinated by March was a lie. Need federal guidance on exactly what to do so all paper work is already pre done and everybody does same with same rules. Need Army involved in administering the logistics. The current system is going to get better but zero chance it gets to what is required which is in the in the million shots per day plus range.
Having been fortunate enough to have been administered the first of the two required Pfizer doses , the appointment is almost 30 minutes . There is a lot to do as nicely detailed in your post . I had a medical records number with all the personal data already in the medical records system . You have to schedule your appointment , check in with patient verification . Read and sign an informed consent . Be seated and administered the vaccine . Be observed for 15 minutes . Schedule your next appointment at an available time slot. Get your vaccine ID card with the two micro sized lot and location stickers . With social distancing at sites, this increases space requirements and slows the process . It’s not a grab and stab like basic training immunizations . From my perspective , they couldn’t have done it properly in a shorter time frame . It would really be an efficiency killer to gather and enter data for a patient not already in the system . My appointment was at a Large sized hospital that had personnel specifically trained for the task . Using volunteers that are unfamiliar with each other and the process could be a logistical mess . Already some reports of wasted doses, and the wrong medication being administered .
. I don’t know any steps that were bypassed. The medical personnel opting out is largely the Non-licensed supporting staff like housekeeping and food services .
According to the linked Pew research article , only 10% of nurses are opting out. I would guess some of those are pregnant or are actively trying to become pregnant. I didn’t see any doctor specific segment discussed in the detailed article .
Intent to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine Rises to 60% as Confidence in Research and Development Process Increases
Still about two-in-ten U.S. adults are “pretty certain” they won’t get the vaccine – even when there’s more information.
www.pewresearch.org
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you obviously don't understand science much and read what you want. WHO doctor said he doesn't know if it effective against new variant as it wasn't tested against it so there is no way to scientifically say if it is or is not. if they would have asked him if he thinks it will be he would have answered 'yes'. as for the antibodies, nobody in the medical community worth a damn was ever saying 2-3 months for anti-bodies. People saying that are clickbait medical scientiss who are anti establishment. Again, all previous history says that antibodies formed will be good for a long time and also good against mutations. so you selectively take data and try to twist it which is just wrong.
I am gonna guess you had time to watch some football games, or golf, or some other past time. There should be some time to read up on making a life altering decision. Yes, some of this stuff is very technical with its own foreign language. But you don’t need to understand all the science......do you know how a nuclear reactor works before flipping a light switch?
As for the approval process: Yes it usually takes years to approve a new vaccine. That’s because it it’s extremely expensive.......upwards of $5,000,000,000 per drug......fraught with failure, and a massive quagmire of red tape. You have to submit lab research to the FDA before testing on any humans. And since there are often 500-1000 drugs in the pipeline you have to wait your turn before the experts study your data, which could be several months. Repeat the same process and delays between each of the Phases I, II, III. Last, no company starts large scale manufacturing before approval because they would lose at least a billion if the FDA rejects their application.
Because of the severity of this pandemic, Operation Warp Speed accelerated the process by putting their submissions at the top of the list so when they submitted their apps they were reviewed immediately. Better yet, they were permitted to submit preliminary data so the experts at FDA already knew much of the information they needed. These steps alone probably cut at least 12-18 months of the process, if not more.
Plus, the government signed contracts to purchase several billion dollars worth so that the companies could start manufacturing the vaccines prior to final approval. This cut another six to twelve months. And to aid in the process, the government helped companies in getting critical supplies like specialized equipment, precursor chemicals, vials and packaging, training people. Even enacted the Defense Production Act to get critical supplies when needed.
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Plus long term immunity comes from t-cell activity which lasts years. People still have immunity to SARS, and MERS, similar viruses from nearly a decade ago. No one says with certainty it will last years because the only way to know is wait years and test. All indications are for good long term immunity. The bigger issue is will it mutate and require new vaccines like the flu does.
