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Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19

interrobang said:
One mask isn't working, so wear two!

www.nytimes.com

One Mask Is Good. Would Two Be Better? (Published 2021)

Health experts double down on their advice for slowing the spread of the coronavirus.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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reality is the daily covid cases (different from hospitalization and fatalities rates) are not going to go down until late spring as the vaccinations will be in full force and starting to hit values where between people who are vaccinated plus people that have had it already (natural immunity) should start to approach 50% of the population so herd immunity will be starting. Plus you add in spring and like last year just less transmission due to those factors (UV sunlight, more people outside, other, etc...) and that is when daily cases I think start to go on what should be a steady downward trend to eventually zero by end of 2021.
 
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cases won't go down until we ditch the PCR tests. There will be a litany of people who get the vaccine and later test positive because of some exposure weeks before getting the vaccine.

There will be mass chaos once vaccinated people start testing positive after the fact, even though they aren't truly infected.
 
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interrobang said:
cases won't go down until we ditch the PCR tests. There will be a litany of people who get the vaccine and later test positive because of some exposure weeks before getting the vaccine.

There will be mass chaos once vaccinated people start testing positive after the fact, even though they aren't truly infected.
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It won’t be mass chaos if the need for hospitalizations seriously declines.
 
interrobang said:
cases won't go down until we ditch the PCR tests. There will be a litany of people who get the vaccine and later test positive because of some exposure weeks before getting the vaccine.

There will be mass chaos once vaccinated people start testing positive after the fact, even though they aren't truly infected.
Click to expand...

maybe, but reality is once people get the vaccine, then they are not going to show symptoms. So I don't see many people getting tested once they have the vaccine for that reason as they know they should already have immunity. so i think your premise is off some.
 
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Cletus11 said:
maybe, but reality is once people get the vaccine, then they are not going to show symptoms. So I don't see many people getting tested once they have the vaccine for that reason as they know they should already have immunity. so i think your premise is off some.
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Upwards of 50% of the people getting tested these days don't have symptoms. They're getting tested as proof of something to travel, go to school, work, or because they think they may have been exposed.
 
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Cletus11 said:
maybe, but reality is once people get the vaccine, then they are not going to show symptoms. So I don't see many people getting tested once they have the vaccine for that reason as they know they should already have immunity. so i think your premise is off some.
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It is also quite possible that vaccinated people will not be able to transmit the virus to a significant degree. This is typically what happens with successful vaccines. If enough people can develop sterilizing immunity, the R value is really going to drop. Even for those who don’t have full sterilizing immunity, if their responses result in significantly less viral shedding, that is going to be a big help.
The wild card are these new variants.
 
interrobang said:
Upwards of 50% of the people getting tested these days don't have symptoms. They're getting tested as proof of something to travel, go to school, work, or because they think they may have been exposed.
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so if you got the vaccine then you most likely not going to get tested just for being exposed as you have immunity. And i would also say that there is going to be a lot of places that allow for a vaccine waiver versus the negative tests. and Kids are not going back to school in May, they are leaving school. If you think come May that after 50-75M people have been vaccinated that the amount of people going to get tested isn't going to come down, then no sense arguing with you.
 
Cletus11 said:
so if you got the vaccine then you most likely not going to get tested just for being exposed as you have immunity. And i would also say that there is going to be a lot of places that allow for a vaccine waiver versus the negative tests. and Kids are not going back to school in May, they are leaving school. If you think come May that after 50-75M people have been vaccinated that the amount of people going to get tested isn't going to come down, then no sense arguing with you.
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You're putting a lot of faith in the sanity of Americans.
 
interrobang said:
Using the extremely generous definition of "covid death" that the USA uses, no surprise.
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Nice to see that Heart Disease Deaths is at an all time low on the chart (5 year) and Cancer Deaths have fallen 33% this year alone to another low. My analysis is that the lockdown has caused everyone to exercise every day, and eat a balanced, nutritional diet (fast food restaurants must be hurting terribly). No alcohol or cigarettes as well, which all have been shown to contribute to Heart Disease and Cancer increased rates. All those huge declines and most of that without doctor visits for yearly physicals and most routine surgeries canceled. Great trend that we should continue! Unless they were misclassified? Anybody know the significance of the heart disease deaths being 15k in mid years and 11k at year end/beginning? And it is repeated for the 5 years pretty consistently.
 
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CentexLion said:
Nice to see that Heart Disease Deaths is at an all time low on the chart (5 year) and Cancer Deaths have fallen 33% this year alone to another low. My analysis is that the lockdown has caused everyone to exercise every day, and eat a balanced, nutritional diet (fast food restaurants must be hurting terribly). No alcohol or cigarettes as well, which all have been shown to contribute to Heart Disease and Cancer increased rates. All those huge declines and most of that without doctor visits for yearly physicals and most routine surgeries canceled. Great trend that we should continue! Unless they were misclassified? Anybody know the significance of the heart disease deaths being 15k in mid years and 11k at year end/beginning? And it is repeated for the 5 years pretty consistently.
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How many people who would have died from cardiovascular disease and cancer ended up dying from COVID ?
I would bet many thousands this year.
It might be anecdotal, but I can tell you that the obituaries in my hometown have been running 2 - 3 times average since November and I would also be willing to bet it’s that way in much of the US.
I can tell you that news sources reported the number of excess deaths in 2020 the most of any year since WW2.
 
83wuzme said:
Some are declining. It was offered to clinical staff. Three had recently recovered from COVID and declined, believing they are probably immune and wanted unprotected people to get it first. Several others declined, usually for no identifiable reason other than fear.
The clownshow otherwise known as the PA DOH recently issued a 65 page tome of rules. Nothing in those 65 pages is going to get us to herd immunity. The vaccine we received comes in ten dose units in allotments of 100. Once a ten dose package is started, it has to be used within six hours. My understanding is that the entire 100 vaccine allotment has to be used in about a month if stored in a decent vaccine dispenser.
We were supposed to get another 100 doses this week. Our CEO is afraid of running afoul of the DOH if we start to just provide it to seniors out of the strict order. So we are not getting more at this time. My prediction is that vaccine is going to be thrown out in PA, and maybe that’s just fine with these bureaucratic idiots.
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What a cluster f. This state is so screwed up. 65 pages! That’s is so typical of government clowns that think they know better than anyone else. Form a committee of geniuses and produce some massive bureaucracy that the peons must follow. Meanwhile, vaccines are wasted and people die.
 
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The Spin Meister said:
What a cluster f. This state is so screwed up. 65 pages! That’s is so typical of government clowns that think they know better than anyone else. Form a committee of geniuses and produce some massive bureaucracy that the peons must follow. Meanwhile, vaccines are wasted and people die.
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isn't their head person (the one I see on the news) a child psychologist or something? I have no idea, just heard that from a friend...
 
Cletus11 said:
Science also didn't say that it won't be fine to get a shot 6 weeks after instead of 3 because they never tested it. So not like it is worthless to try this, giving one shot is like getting a flu shot with 50-60% immunity.

right now, reality has to take hold. this roll out has been a $hit show and literally at it's current pace will take years to get the USA to herd immunity. the vaccinators don't have the logisitical capacity to follow the 21 day guideline, just have to accep that fact. so way more simple to let the CVS, Walgreens, Hospitals, etc...hang a sign up and say come on in and get a vaccine shot as that way you know that they can all be used ASAP as they would have a line out the door. And then assume you get the second shots in on time. If you don't, then at leats every shot has been used and some immunity is out there.

you admit right now that shots are not even getting used, so what good is that. not like that is going to change anytime soon as nobody is in charge and the rollout cannot get out from between it's own incomptence. You read stories every day about how bad it is going and arguments on who should be getting it while other articles where they are running out of vaccine and cannot get to the nursing homes and elderly.

So go like hell with Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. Hope that J&J and AstraZenaca get approved in March and then millions more flood the market. and that Pfizer and Moderna can keep pace with their production.
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Wow, what happened to follow the science? We aren’t using all the vaccines shipped so just ship them all? And screw the established protocols of two shots 21 days apart? Let’s just shoot up every one and hope to hell it works!?!? Talk about panic mode.

Just change the requirements. Allow all over 65 to get the shots, then ship them as needed. Have CVs, Walgreens, Walmart, and other pharmacies distribute them. No need to ship all when we don’t even use what was shipped and we don’t have the storage capacity at the retail level for a 100,000,000 doses. You would end up destroying half of the them.

Calm down, relax the restrictions, GET GOVERNMENT THE HELL OUTTA THE WAY!
 
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The Spin Meister said:
Wow, what happened to follow the science? We aren’t using all the vaccines shipped so just ship them all? And screw the established protocols of two shots 21 days apart? Let’s just shoot up every one and hope to hell it works!?!? Talk about panic mode.

Just change the requirements. Allow all over 65 to get the shots, then ship them as needed. Have CVs, Walgreens, Walmart, and other pharmacies distribute them. No need to ship all when we don’t even use what was shipped and we don’t have the storage capacity at the retail level for a 100,000,000 doses. You would end up destroying half of the them.

Calm down, relax the restrictions, GET GOVERNMENT THE HELL OUTTA THE WAY!
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wouldn't say it is that crazy. i agree the politicians are screwing this up (but who didn't see that coming). they are saying release the vacccines faster and get them in arms and ASSUME that Moderna/Pfizer will keep up with manufacturing such that those second doses will be available when the time comes.

This is versus the current thinking where you keep the second dose in the fridge so for every dose given there is a second dose in the fridge waiting. so now, that second dose isn't in the fridge waiting but it delivered by Moderna/Pfizer as part of the weekly shipments. Which is not a horrible idea and probably a good one as now that 65+ over is authorized a lot of the red tape and policians making decision has been taken away.
 
Cletus11 said:
wouldn't say it is that crazy. i agree the politicians are screwing this up (but who didn't see that coming). they are saying release the vacccines faster and get them in arms and ASSUME that Moderna/Pfizer will keep up with manufacturing such that those second doses will be available when the time comes.

This is versus the current thinking where you keep the second dose in the fridge so for every dose given there is a second dose in the fridge waiting. so now, that second dose isn't in the fridge waiting but it delivered by Moderna/Pfizer as part of the weekly shipments. Which is not a horrible idea and probably a good one as now that 65+ over is authorized a lot of the red tape and policians making decision has been taken away.
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Ceptin they aren’t kept in a fridge. They are kept in deep frozen state, something like -90. Very few hospitals and zero nursing homes have those facilities. Ship them all this week and half will have to thrown away. Both companies have an established production program. They know how many they make each week. Not hard to schedule second shots.
 
Cletus11 said:
reality is the daily covid cases (different from hospitalization and fatalities rates) are not going to go down until late spring as the vaccinations will be in full force and starting to hit values where between people who are vaccinated plus people that have had it already (natural immunity) should start to approach 50% of the population so herd immunity will be starting. Plus you add in spring and like last year just less transmission due to those factors (UV sunlight, more people outside, other, etc...) and that is when daily cases I think start to go on what should be a steady downward trend to eventually zero by end of 2021.
Click to expand...
interrobang said:
cases won't go down until we ditch the PCR tests. There will be a litany of people who get the vaccine and later test positive because of some exposure weeks before getting the vaccine.

There will be mass chaos once vaccinated people start testing positive after the fact, even though they aren't truly infected.
Click to expand...

Don’t really care about test numbers. They are very unreliable, over stated, and used for panic porn. 586,987,5786 positive test! Big deal since 90% are old tests from well over a month and people have recovered.

What is important is hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. And those will drop significantly in March. By the end of Feb 30,000,000 of the highest risk will have had second shots plus 20,000,000 will have had first shot.
 
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Scientists at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research have promising new data indicating their vaccine will work against significant mutations of COVID-19, as well as entirely different coronaviruses, an achievement that other vaccines so far have not accomplished.

The data has yet to be peer reviewed. But the Army lab is hopeful that a pan-coronavirus vaccine is achievable after testing the drug on SARS, a coronavirus that emerged in 2003 with significant biological differences from the current pandemicdisease known as SARS-CoV-2.

Tests of the vaccine against both SARS as well as emerging variants of COVID-19 have shown “very good responses,” said Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of Walter Reed’s Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch.


Read more here: https://www.centredaily.com/news/co...H3Aant9eC55X55cUUY6rMQKeQebSVAg#storylink=cpy
 
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There was a report earlier this week about how the gorillas at the S.D. Zoo contracted COVID. Fortunately, none them appear to be seriously ill ( this story got the Warren Zevon song “ Gorilla, you’re a desperado “ going through my head on a loop ).
This story does, however, point to a big problem in the future. Even assuming this pandemic will end, it is likely that there will be an animal reservoir for SARS CoV - 2. I would especially think of all of those Asian Wet Markets that might actually become the source for the next Coronavirus pandemic.
 
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The Spin Meister said:
Ceptin they aren’t kept in a fridge. They are kept in deep frozen state, something like -90. Very few hospitals and zero nursing homes have those facilities. Ship them all this week and half will have to thrown away. Both companies have an established production program. They know how many they make each week. Not hard to schedule second shots.
Click to expand...

i don't read anywhere where anybody is literally saying to ship everything this week such that literally faciliteis have no place to put them. the point was to greatly speed up shipments and don't keep the second shot in the fridge and to give it. you seem to be missing the point and/or trying to prove a point that doesn't exist.

what would be your plan then recognizing going back in time and handing this over to the Army to do it all isn't in the cards anymore. Starting today, what would you do. opening it up to 65+ was the right thing to do as now there is no excuse for anybody to be hoarding or not giving out shots. and it takes away the power from the politicians (which we both agree is bad) to say who and when things happen.
 
83wuzme said:
There was a report earlier this week about how the gorillas at the S.D. Zoo contracted COVID. Fortunately, none them appear to be seriously ill ( this story got the Warren Zevon song “ Gorilla, you’re a desperado “ going through my head on a loop ).
This story does, however, point to a big problem in the future. Even assuming this pandemic will end, it is likely that there will be an animal reservoir for SARS CoV - 2. I would especially think of all those Asian Wet Markets, that might actually become the source for the next Coronavirus pandemic.
Click to expand...


Who managed to spend 15 minutes in close contact w/a gorilla?
 
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