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Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19

The Spin Meister said:
A, the science doesn’t say that wil work since they were tested only with strict, specific intervals. And B, they have only used a quarter of what was shipped. Sending four times as much will resulting massive amounts being ruined and discard3d.
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Science also didn't say that it won't be fine to get a shot 6 weeks after instead of 3 because they never tested it. So not like it is worthless to try this, giving one shot is like getting a flu shot with 50-60% immunity.

right now, reality has to take hold. this roll out has been a $hit show and literally at it's current pace will take years to get the USA to herd immunity. the vaccinators don't have the logisitical capacity to follow the 21 day guideline, just have to accep that fact. so way more simple to let the CVS, Walgreens, Hospitals, etc...hang a sign up and say come on in and get a vaccine shot as that way you know that they can all be used ASAP as they would have a line out the door. And then assume you get the second shots in on time. If you don't, then at leats every shot has been used and some immunity is out there.

you admit right now that shots are not even getting used, so what good is that. not like that is going to change anytime soon as nobody is in charge and the rollout cannot get out from between it's own incomptence. You read stories every day about how bad it is going and arguments on who should be getting it while other articles where they are running out of vaccine and cannot get to the nursing homes and elderly.

So go like hell with Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. Hope that J&J and AstraZenaca get approved in March and then millions more flood the market. and that Pfizer and Moderna can keep pace with their production.
 
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Cletus11 said:
so basically give out all the doses and assume that you will get a continued supply such that you will be able to give the second dose. So more like just in time manufacturing or logistics. that makes sense considering the horrible way this has been rolled out. Makes things a lot easier in the sense that basically you get the vaccine and then you vaccinate as many people as possible as fast as possible. Schedule them for the second visit and if there is vaccine available then they get it, if not they have to wait. But that means the vaccine dosages get into as many arms as possible as quickly as possible. i can go along with that.

and the point at end of article on politicians within states arguing who gets what is exactly why the CDC (federal govt) should have put out the list of people in order who should get the vaccine that was to be followed nationally. then there would be no politicians or local health administrators trying to figure it out themselves.
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Here's another math lesson:

Using Pfizer data: 1-shot = 55% efficacy and 2-shot = 95% efficacy.

If we have 2 million shots to distribute here are the expected results:

1-shot; (2,000,000 people x 0.55) = 1,100,000 million people are immune to covid
2-shot ((2,000,000 shots / 2 (shots/person)) x 0.95) = 950,000 people are immune to covid.

btw, I've had three multiple shot vaccines (Hep A, Hep B, Shingles) and all of them had quite a range in the timeframe for the second shot. Hep B has three shots and an even greater range. No reason to expect this vaccine to be different so I believe it's an easy risk-reward decision.

One caveat though...I would give those in the highest risk group (those most likely to die if they catch covid) two shots and everyone else one shot until supply gets caught up.
 
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There are 18,000,000 doses shipped and just sitting there. So the solution is to ship a hundred million. Yeah, that makes sense.

The real solution is to do what Florida is doing ....open it up to all over 75. They have people in lines waiting for shots. Idiots in states where the governors think they are some kinda geniuses and insist on full control is the problem. Get the government out of the process and let pharmacies distribute the vaccines.
 
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The Spin Meister said:
There are 18,000,000 doses shipped and just sitting there. So the solution is to ship a hundred million. Yeah, that makes sense.

The real solution is to do what Florida is doing ....open it up to all over 75. They have people in lines waiting for shots. Idiots in states where the governors think they are some kinda geniuses and insist on full control is the problem. Get the government out of the process and let pharmacies distribute the vaccines.
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Nice article in Saturday WSJ about Kroger, and Rite Aid being ready to rock. Get them the vaccines.
US virus deaths just set a daily record per Johns Hopkins with more than 4k on Thursday. 274k new cases reported Thursday, which is the 2nd highest day ever after 1/2/21. Record ICU numbers reported at 23,821.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb projects 30% of the US will have had COVID , and 10% of the population should be vaccinated by the end of January.
 
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Tom McAndrew said:
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G
Long but good article. To summarize, researchers fused the spike proteins and protein segments to nanoparticles called ferritin and injected them into mice. Got a strong immune response that was twice as high as other treatments. It works with a single dose, is easier to mass produce, and easier to store and ship.

Just tested in mice so has a long way to go but it is a novel way to produce vaccines. Would be great if this method can be used on this and other viruses.
 
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Tom McAndrew said:
this is the co-creator of the Pfizer vaccine

View embedded media
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so sounds like between this and assuming J&J gets approved, Astra Zenaca getting approved, and probably another one of the smaller vaccine maker getting approved in early summer, that supply should not be an issue. which a few months ago did not seem to be the case.

I just hope they get the distribution and actual vaccination's done more quickly. Appears averaging about 2 million doses per week so far and that needs to greatly improve. maybe now going to an over 75 across the board and telling the vaccine sites not to sit on the 2nd dose but assume it will come will greatly push the amounts done weekly. Really need to ramp that up to 3 million per week in January and then 4 million per week in February and 5 million per week in March. That gets us into the 50 million people vaccinated by end of March which then would probably mean most of all the high risk people have gotten vaccinated.
 
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:Immunity from Moderna's inc. C-19 vaccine should last at least one year the company said at a J. P. Morgan conference Monday.

(Headline only)

,,,cheers
 
Just wanted to provide a bit of a real world update from my corner of the world.
The small community health center where I work received 100 Moderna doses last week. We have provided ten. That’s right, ten.
 
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ericstratton-rushchairman said:
Why? Are people declining to take it?
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Some are declining. It was offered to clinical staff. Three had recently recovered from COVID and declined, believing they are probably immune and wanted unprotected people to get it first. Several others declined, usually for no identifiable reason other than fear.
The clownshow otherwise known as the PA DOH recently issued a 65 page tome of rules. Nothing in those 65 pages is going to get us to herd immunity. The vaccine we received comes in ten dose units in allotments of 100. Once a ten dose package is started, it has to be used within six hours. My understanding is that the entire 100 vaccine allotment has to be used in about a month if stored in a decent vaccine dispenser.
We were supposed to get another 100 doses this week. Our CEO is afraid of running afoul of the DOH if we start to just provide it to seniors out of the strict order. So we are not getting more at this time. My prediction is that vaccine is going to be thrown out in PA, and maybe that’s just fine with these bureaucratic idiots.
 
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83wuzme said:
Some are declining. It was offered to clinical staff. Three had recently recovered from COVID and declined, believing they are probably immune and wanted unprotected people to get it first. Several others declined, usually for no identifiable reason other than fear.
The clownshow otherwise known as the PA DOH recently issued a 65 page tome of rules. Nothing in those 65 pages is going to get us to herd immunity. The vaccine we received comes in ten dose units in allotments of 100. Once a ten dose package is started, it has to be used within six hours. My understanding is that the entire 100 vaccine allotment has to be used in about a month if stored in a decent vaccine dispenser.
We were supposed to get another 100 doses this week. Our CEO is afraid of running afoul of the DOH if we start to just provide it to seniors out of the strict order. So we are not getting more at this time. My prediction is that vaccine is going to be thrown out in PA, and maybe that’s just fine with these bureaucratic idiots.
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I completely understand the idea of giving the vaccine to those who are more likely to get but like you I'm hearing such a small percentage of people actually want to get the vaccine that they should just open it up and say whoever wants it come and get it.
 
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83wuzme said:
Some are declining. It was offered to clinical staff. Three had recently recovered from COVID and declined, believing they are probably immune and wanted unprotected people to get it first. Several others declined, usually for no identifiable reason other than fear.
The clownshow otherwise known as the PA DOH recently issued a 65 page tome of rules. Nothing in those 65 pages is going to get us to herd immunity. The vaccine we received comes in ten dose units in allotments of 100. Once a ten dose package is started, it has to be used within six hours. My understanding is that the entire 100 vaccine allotment has to be used in about a month if stored in a decent vaccine dispenser.
We were supposed to get another 100 doses this week. Our CEO is afraid of running afoul of the DOH if we start to just provide it to seniors out of the strict order. So we are not getting more at this time. My prediction is that vaccine is going to be thrown out in PA, and maybe that’s just fine with these bureaucratic idiots.
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Good Lord...
 
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bison13 said:
I completely understand the idea of giving the vaccine to those who are more likely to get but like you I'm hearing such a small percentage of people actually want to get the vaccine that they should just open it up and say whoever wants it come and get it.
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The thing is, all of these rules are costing lives. I don’t believe the people who make these rules actually understand the sheer number of people who will need to be vaccinated to blunt this pandemic. It’s as if they are treating vaccine doses like some sort of precious asset instead of a service.
 
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This is a news article -- something I avoid posting if I can find the scientific study it's based upon. Alas, with the Chinese vaccines, finding scientific studies of their efficacy is almost impossible. With that caveat, there do appear to be some issues with the CoronaVac vaccine, which has been developed by Sinovac Biotech Ltd.

 
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