PSU opp. 1-1
OSU opp. 1-2
Mich opp. 1-2
NW was HUGE
OSU opp. 1-2
Mich opp. 1-2
NW was HUGE
Tiebreaker standings...
- Thread starter Psubiomed
- Start date
Not sure where you're getting your info, but it's wrong. Correct info is:
PSU opp: 1-3 (NW 1-1, Ill 0-1, Iowa 0-1)
OSU opp: 2-2: (Wisc 1-0, Minn 1-1, Purdue 0-1)
Mich opp: 1-3 (Neb 0-1, Minn 1-1, Purdue 0-1)
So as of now OSU would win the 3-way tie breaker
PSU opp: 1-3 (NW 1-1, Ill 0-1, Iowa 0-1)
OSU opp: 2-2: (Wisc 1-0, Minn 1-1, Purdue 0-1)
Mich opp: 1-3 (Neb 0-1, Minn 1-1, Purdue 0-1)
So as of now OSU would win the 3-way tie breaker
Would be huge if NW can beat Purdue at a minimum. They are currently favored to win that game on the FPI. Iowa and Illinois finishing 1-2 in the West would be great as well.
Tried to do a little forecasting and the west is such a shit show its just a waste of time. NW, Illinois, and Iowa winning out in their remaining games against Purdue and Minnesota would be helpful. 1-0 so far.
Little misleading because PSU has already played two of these opponents and are the source of their losses. We’re assuming for the sake of argument that all of these west opponents lose to PSU/tOSU/UM so those losses by Illinois and Iowa aren’t kinda baked in.
No actually you are wrong its the record against OTHER teams not including the big 3
I know it's pedantic, but.... the specific tie breaker in question is:
It does not exclude games against the teams vying for the tiebreaker. This is actually very important for PSU since both Purdue and Minnesota both both UM and tOSU but not PSU. If you looked at records excluding the the games against tied teams it would directly hurt PSU under the scenario where all three East teams goes 8-1 in conference because Purdue and Minnesota would "ignore" 2 of their potential losses (to UM/tOSU) while all PSU opponents would only ignore 1 loss to east teams [but thankfully that's not the case].
In my previous post, I'm just pointing out that Iowa and Illinois seem worse for us than they really are since we expect Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue (x2) and Minnesota (x2) to pick up losses versus UM/tOSU
Iowa gets both Purdue and Minnesota at home, so them picking up those wins is important for the tiebreaker.
It looks more and more like Ohio St is the team to worry about here, and not Michigan. They have identical schedules except for OSU getting Wisconsin and Michigan getting Nebraska. I'll be shocked if Nebraska finishes so much as even with Wisconsin in the Big Ten standings (Wisconsin even gets them at home).
Wisconsin is such an unknown at this point, it's very hard to judge. 3-1 with a loss to a PAC team that may be better than originally thought, yet no hard data that says they will win good in the West. They are on a bye before this October:
Rutgers
Iowa
@ Illinois
OSU
The Rutgers game seems like a coin flip, but it's hard to pick Rutgers over anybody. Iowa will be tough for them. Illinois could give them trouble as well and I don't see OSU dropping one to them unless they have major hangover from playing us the week prior.
3-5 worst case scenario. 6-2 best case and that puts them in the driver's seat of the West. 5-3 feels most likely, but that could change with more data.
Nebraska seems destined for 3way tied for last or 5th place alone at best. They finally changed QBs though. That is what cost them the Minnesota game.
You dont count when you play that team, obviously bc those will even out in 3 way tie. Original post is right.
I know they’re eliminating divisions and that the following won’t ever happen, but how cool would four divisions with a conference semifinal and final be?
East: PSU, OSU, MD, Rutgers
West: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington
Lakes: Mich, MSU, Minn, NW, Wisc
Plains: IA, IN, Neb, Purdue, Illinois
Play your own division. Rotate out of division. Semifinal and final playoff games for conference championship.
Just think it’d be fun. Understood won’t happen.
East: PSU, OSU, MD, Rutgers
West: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington
Lakes: Mich, MSU, Minn, NW, Wisc
Plains: IA, IN, Neb, Purdue, Illinois
Play your own division. Rotate out of division. Semifinal and final playoff games for conference championship.
Just think it’d be fun. Understood won’t happen.
That's wrong. It's conference record period. No caveats. It evens out in this instance but the way the rule is written you don't exclude any games.
If we all have 1 loss the head-to heads with the these cross-over teams will all be 3-0, so pointless to count. It's not wrong.
Pointless or not the rule doesn't say you don't include them.
Hell the example the conference gives even includes records showing all 9 conference games for the 3 crossover opponents counting in the sample records. None are removed.
"5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative."
The original post also claimed none of the games against the 3 tied teams would be included which would lead to an imbalance because they're not evenly balanced schedules. You wouldn't count two losses for Minn or Purdue skewing their win % positively since you only exclude 1 loss for others.
I understand your point, it's just wrong. You count all 27 conference games for the 3 cross over opponents. I get that removing 3 losses from the 27 games across all 3 sets of data yields the same result but that isn't how the rule is written because it confuses people like the other post I quoted.
I think it's you who doesn't understand what psubiomed was saying.
To be fair, no one outside of Ohio likes Ohio.
I get you, but I think the fundamental point is that counting the losses to PSU by Illinois and Iowa makes the position for PSU look worse than it really is in terms of tracking the relevance of the records for teams in the other division. We are assuming that all West teams in question will lose to tOSU, UM and PSU for the purposes of this exercise.
The thing is when we make this assumption (and it’s a good one), our opponents start off 0-3, while Michigan/OSU’s opponents are 0-5. Nice advantage for us right from the start.
They look worse because the season isn't complete yet and OSU and UM haven't played any of their crossover games yet. They'll look even worse after next week since we play our final crossover, UM will still have 2 left and OSU all 3 left. The tiebreaker doesn't work on incomplete data.
If PSU/OSU/UM don't go 9-0 against their crossovers there is no longer a 3 way tie and the whole discussion is moot.
Correct…but by having two common opponents, the teams that are crossover opponents for our rivals will have additional guaranteed losses (under our scenario). Good for us.
Here's a grid with the upcoming games against the big 3 already marked as losses along with any conference games already played.
Our opponents are 1-4. OSUs are 2-7. Michigans are 1-8 when you factor in the "guarantees"
Our opponents are 1-4. OSUs are 2-7. Michigans are 1-8 when you factor in the "guarantees"
| Illinois | Iowa | Northwestern | Nebraska | Minnesota | Purdue | Wisconsin |
| Nebraska | Purdue | |||||
| Purdue | MSU | Minnesota | Illinois | Rutgers | ||
| Nebraska | Purdue | Illinois | Iowa | Iowa | ||
| Maryland | Wisconsin | Nebraska | Northwestern | Iowa | Illinois | |
| Wisconsin | Minnesota | Maryland | Purdue | MSU | Nebraska | |
| Minnesota | NW | Iowa | MSU | Illinois | Indiana | |
| Indiana | Rutgers | Wisconsin | Maryland | Purdue | Minnesota | Northwestern |
| Iowa | Illinois | Purdue | Wisconsin | Northwestern | Nebraska | |
| Northwestern | Rutgers | Illinois | Iowa | Wisconsin | Indiana | Minnesota |
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You forgot to count Minnesota losing to NW (under Minnesota's tally) which makes it worse for both tOSU and UM.
Michigans Crossovers are: Nebraska, Minnesota, and Purdue. Our 3 could surpass that.
OSU's are: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue. That one will be harder.
Illinois vs. Purdue this weekend is a hugggge game for this tiebreaker scenario.
OSU's are: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue. That one will be harder.
Illinois vs. Purdue this weekend is a hugggge game for this tiebreaker scenario.
We are getting way to crazy with this, but I went and filled this in with ESPN's FPI predictions for the games that haven't been played yet.
PSU's west opponents are expected to go 12-15
OSU's west opponents are expected to go 14-14
UM's west opponents are expected to go 8-19
<-------------PSU------------------------>
<---------------------UM------------------->
<----------------------OSU-------------------->
| Ill | Iowa | NW | Neb | Minn | Pur | Wis |
| W Neb | W-Pur | |||||
| (w)Pur | (w)MSU | W-Minn | L-NW | (l)Ill | (w)Rutg | |
| (w)Neb | (w)Pur | (l)Ill | (l)Iowa | (w)Iowa | ||
| (l)MD | (l)Wis | (l)Neb | (w)NW | (l)Iowa | (w)Ill | |
| (l)Wis | (w)Minn | (l)MD | (w)Pur | (w)MSU | (l)Neb | |
| (l)Minn | (w)NW | (l)Iowa | (l)MSU | (w)Ill | (w)Ind | |
| (w)Ind | (w)Rut | (l)Wis | (l)MD | (w)Pur | (l)Minn | (w)NW |
| (l)Iowa | (w)Ill | (l)Pur | (l)Wis | (w)NW | (w)Neb | |
| (w)NW | (w)Neb | (l)Ill | (l)Iowa | (l)Wis | (w)Ind | (w)Minn |
| 4-5 | 7-2 | 1-8 | 2-7 | 4-5 | 2-7 | 8-1 |
The key teams in my opinion that can swing things are NW (,need them to win) and Wisky (need them to lose). NW could be awful as in not winning another game and Wisky could win the west. Not what we want so we need NW to pull out a few more like they did vs Minny and we cannot have Wisky beating everyone in the West.
Not sure how OSUs west opponents have an extra game.
So if this all goes as per the FpI with exception of Iowa beating Wisconsin, we have to hope like heck that our only loss was to MI as both PSU and OSU would revert back to two team tiebreaker? (Note I was too tired to check if OSU is 14-13 or 13-14 which makes a big difference.
Because I added wrong: OSU's west opponents are 14-13 according to predictions.
If it goes to the non-division team tiebreaker, then the team with the best non division opponents’ records is the rep, it does not revert to head to head (unless two teams have the same opposite division team records in which case it would revert to head to head).
So basically in the FPI results scenario, tOSU would be the rep.
Which is why the Michigan game is actually more important than the Ohio State game
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