3-way tie-breaking update

[Thus Spoke Mainer]

Update on Big Ten East Tiebreaker Scenario:
Penn State: 8-10 (Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern),
Ohio State: 7-11 (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue),
Michigan: 7-11 (Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue).
If PSU beats Mich and Mich beats OSU, PSU would be the Big Ten East representative

 

[Vic Vaselino]

And Mich. and OSU go to the playoff because we don't meet the eye test.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

And Mich. and OSU go to the playoff because we don't meet the eye test.

we had to go undefeated. they will leave us out of the cfp no matter what

it doesn't help that almost every near-upset in the top 10 this year seems to be ending without an upset

 

[Erial_Lion]

we had to go undefeated. they will leave us out of the cfp no matter what

it doesn't help that almost every near-upset in the top 10 this year seems to be ending without an upset

“No matter what” is a pretty big stretch…we win the Big Ten, and we’ve got a pretty legitimate shot at it.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Based on my calculations (including future games that are locked in), I've got it at...
PSU 10-12
Ohio St 9-14
Michigan 8-13

 

[fairfaxlion2]

“No matter what” is a pretty big stretch…we win the Big Ten, and we’ve got a pretty legitimate shot at it.

I seriously doubt it. the scenario that gets us there is us beating Michigan, but Michigan beating Ohio State. Could easily see the committee putting OSU into the playoff in that scenario. They already believe that OSU is #1, ahead of Georgia for some unknown reason.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I seriously doubt it. the scenario that gets us there is us beating Michigan, but Michigan beating Ohio State. Could easily see the committee putting OSU into the playoff in that scenario. They already believe that OSU is #1, ahead of Georgia for some unknown reason.

Ohio St’s win over ND doesn’t look as good now…it would be close, but our conference championship would stack up pretty well against that win.

And why shouldn’t OSU have been #1? That’s where I would have had them last week…though I’d likely flip it this week.

 

[johnmpsu]

“No matter what” is a pretty big stretch…we win the Big Ten, and we’ve got a pretty legitimate shot at it.

Not if the Big lobbies for OSU or MI. Funny how I seem to remember that happening once before. Never forget that the Big exists for MI and OSU.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Ohio St’s win over ND doesn’t look as good now…it would be close, but our conference championship would stack up pretty well against that win.

And why shouldn’t OSU have been #1? That’s where I would have had them last week…though I’d likely flip it this week.

because the win over ND didn't look so great at any point, including the night it happened. They got the win when ND didn't put 11 people on the field for two plays, and ND continued to look so-so after that.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Not if the Big lobbies for OSU or MI. Funny how I seem to remember that happening once before. Never forget that the Big exists for MI and OSU.

Ok, I’ll correct my statement…”no matter what” is a pretty big stretch if you’re not wearing a tinfoil hat.

 

[Erial_Lion]

because the win over ND didn't look so great at any point, including the night it happened. They got the win when ND didn't put 11 people on the field for two plays, and ND continued to look so-so after that.

They won in South Bend…are you really saying the committee should have minimized it due to the number of players on the field? Are we assuming they couldn’t have scored from the 1 if ND had all 11?

 

[PSUinSTL]

I seriously doubt it. the scenario that gets us there is us beating Michigan, but Michigan beating Ohio State. Could easily see the committee putting OSU into the playoff in that scenario. They already believe that OSU is #1, ahead of Georgia for some unknown reason.

Of the top teams. OSU had the best 2 wins. They beat 2 top 15 teams. That changed yesterday. Uga beating mizzou. Nd losing changes the equation.

That said - if we 3 way tie with um/osu it will be intriguing. We need nd to lose 1-2 more. We need Iowa to win out. Those help.

The key though will be extra win. Whoever wins tiebreaker should get edge

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Of the top teams. OSU had the best 2 wins. They beat 2 top 15 teams. That changed yesterday. Uga beating mizzou. Nd losing changes the equation.

That said - if we 3 way tie with um/osu it will be intriguing. We need nd to lose 1-2 more. We need Iowa to win out. Those help.

The key though will be extra win. Whoever wins tiebreaker should get edge

when ND lost to Louisville, that should have changed the equation for anyone who still believed that was a great win. Georgia is clearly better than OSU and has better wins. Also we have really seen no indication that OSU is better than Michigan.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Of the top teams. OSU had the best 2 wins. They beat 2 top 15 teams. That changed yesterday. Uga beating mizzou. Nd losing changes the equation.

That said - if we 3 way tie with um/osu it will be intriguing. We need nd to lose 1-2 more. We need Iowa to win out.

Home against Wake and away at Stanford…they’ll be 2+ TD favorites in both most likely.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

They won in South Bend…are you really saying the committee should have minimized it due to the number of players on the field? Are we assuming they couldn’t have scored from the 1 if ND had all 11?

I believe ND also had 10 players on the field for the play when OSU got to the one-yard line in the first place. Yes, I believe ND would have been more likely to win the game if they had 11 players on the field for those plays. Also I don't think ND is really that good, so beating them in the final seconds is what it is.

 

[Erial_Lion]

when ND lost to Louisville, that should have changed the equation for anyone who still believed that was a great win. Georgia is clearly better than OSU and has better wins. Also we have really seen no indication that OSU is better than Michigan.

Regardless of how you want to quantify winning at ND this year, it’s still an order of magnitude better than Michigan’s best win to this point.

 

[johnmpsu]

Ok, I’ll correct my statement…”no matter what” is a pretty big stretch if you’re not wearing a tinfoil hat.

No tinfoil hat required. Just history. Simple historical fact that the Big lobbied for OSU over the conference champ. That was and always will be despicable and indicative of this conference.

 

[Erial_Lion]

No tinfoil hat required. Just history. Simple historical fact that the Big lobbied for OSU over the conference champ. That was and always will be despicable and indicative of this conference.

“Simple fact” if you ignore that they had the better resume…also, what was involved in this “lobbying” effort?

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Regardless of how you want to quantify winning at ND this year, it’s still an order of magnitude better than Michigan’s best win to this point.

Other than being named ND, they have not really done much of anything. I don't know why it is considered such a great win. ND beat a USC team who has no defense. That's it.

Regardless of Michigan's wins, there is also the question of why Georgia is not #1.

 

[johnmpsu]

“Simple fact” if you ignore that they had the better resume…also, what was involved in this “lobbying” effort?

They lost head to head. Screw the so called resume.

 

[LandoComando]

ND is far from great but they're still the best win Michigan Penn State or Ohio State have outside each other if all have 1 loss. And it was on the road. There's a reason they're 1 currently

 

[doctornick]

“No matter what” is a pretty big stretch…we win the Big Ten, and we’ve got a pretty legitimate shot at it.

If we win the Big Ten, we are in. But winning is going to take a good bit of luck as well as great performances

 

[bdgan]

I'm surprised there's not more discussion of Iowa's controversial loss to Minnesota where they had a punt return for a TD called back because refs claimed Cooper DeJean called for a fair catch.

cooper deJeans TD return called back - Bing video

www.bing.com

 

[doctornick]

Regardless of how you want to quantify winning at ND this year, it’s still an order of magnitude better than Michigan’s best win to this point.

Michigan’s best win so far this year has been… Rutgers.

 

[bdgan]

If we win the Big Ten, we are in. But winning is going to take a good bit of luck as well as great performances

Agree, especially if Chop and Wallace can't play.

McCarthy is probably better than Allar at this point in his career and UM is stronger at the LOS. IMO PSU is going to have to win the TO battle and steer clear of penalties.

 

[LandoComando]

Update on Big Ten East Tiebreaker Scenario:
Penn State: 8-10 (Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern),
Ohio State: 7-11 (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue),
Michigan: 7-11 (Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue).
If PSU beats Mich and Mich beats OSU, PSU would be the Big Ten East representative

Biggest remaining games
Northwestern/Wisconsin, Northwestern/Purdue and Iowa/Nebraska
Really need Iowa to beat Rutgers

 

[LandoComando]

Michigan’s best win so far this year has been… Rutgers.

Our best win is...Iowa?
Neither us or Michigan have beat anyone with a pulse.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Agree, especially if Chop and Wallace can't play.

McCarthy is probably better than Allar at this point in his career and UM is stronger at the LOS. IMO PSU is going to have to win the TO battle and steer clear of penalties.

I feel like chop is going to play

 

[Beaver-Stadium]

Asking for help making these of the 6th tie breaker,



6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)

 

[Erial_Lion]

Asking for help making these of the 6th tie breaker,



6. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)

Very, very unlikely to come into play…if it did, you just start by comparing the records against any team tied for the west title, and work down the standings if still tied.

 

[doctornick]

Very, very unlikely to come into play…if it did, you just start by comparing the records against any team tied for the west title, and work down the standings if still tied.

Right. And to take it a step further, if that criteria gets used, it would be helpful for us if Iowa wins the West free and clear (has the best record).

But that only comes into play if the records of all West opponents between the three teams have completely tied. If only two teams have their West opponents’ records tied, it reverts to head to head

 

[KCLion]

No tinfoil hat required. Just history. Simple historical fact that the Big lobbied for OSU over the conference champ. That was and always will be despicable and indicative of this conference.

As terrible as it was and as much as I disagreed with it (Herbies eye test), remember, we had two losses, not 1 that year.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

As terrible as it was and as much as I disagreed with it (Herbies eye test), remember, we had two losses, not 1 that year.

and one of the losses was Pitt, which should be automatically disqualifying

 

[LandoComando]

and one of the losses was Pitt, which should be automatically disqualifying

And the other was a blowout. Bad combination.

 

[doctornick]

As terrible as it was and as much as I disagreed with it (Herbies eye test), remember, we had two losses, not 1 that year.

And the committee for better or worse has always taken teams with fewer losses over those with more losses. There’s never been a P5 team with more losses taken over one with fewer losses.

 

[johnmpsu]

As terrible as it was and as much as I disagreed with it (Herbies eye test), remember, we had two losses, not 1 that year.

True, so maybe we didnt deserve to go but OSU sure as heck didnt deserve it.

 

[Erial_Lion]

True, so maybe we didnt deserve to go but OSU sure as heck didnt deserve it.

Back to reality then...who deserved to go then if not Penn State and Ohio State? 6th in the rankings was a 10-2 Michigan team that lost to Ohio State. 7th was a two loss Oklahoma team that got crushed at home by Ohio State. 8th was a three loss Wisconsin team that lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State.

Who is it that "deserved" to actually go? We'll pretend that it wasn't an 11-1 Ohio State team with wins over #5 Michigan and #7 Oklahoma?

 

[LandoComando]

True, so maybe we didnt deserve to go but OSU sure as heck didnt deserve it.

They absolutely did. Why didn't they?
The debate was never us or Ohio State. It was us or Washington

 

[johnmpsu]

Back to reality then...who deserved to go then if not Penn State and Ohio State? 6th in the rankings was a 10-2 Michigan team that lost to Ohio State. 7th was a two loss Oklahoma team that got crushed at home by Ohio State. 8th was a three loss Wisconsin team that lost to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State.

Who is it that "deserved" to actually go?

PSU as champions of the Big 10. It's even in the so called "commitees" own criteria. When you see them ignore their own selection criteria you realize what a joke it is. Until there are actual fixed criteria for getting in it will always be nothing more than an end of season tournament. If I was running the world the teams in would only be conference winners. No lucky losers allowed but that won't happen for one simple reason, money.

 

[Erial_Lion]

PSU as champions of the Big 10. It's even in the so called "commitees" own criteria. When you see them ignore their own selection criteria you realize what a joke it is. Until there are actual fixed criteria for getting in it will always be nothing more than an end of season tournament. If I was running the world the teams in would only be conference winners. No lucky losers allowed but that won't happen for one simple reason, money.

So non-conference games should be completely meaningless? Got it.

And what "criteria" that the selection committee uses states that they should ignore non-conference games, and/or that conference champions should automatically go even if they don't have the best resume in their conference?

Our argument in 2016 was that we had a better resume than Washington to slip into the 4th spot...it's obvious that we didn't have a better resume than Ohio St.