Two keys to victory for Michigan -

[jack66]

Volume and clutch.

The Wolverine's team record at Bigs was 31-12 (43 total matches) and they managed a 13-5 margin in matches decided by 2 or fewer points.

By contrast; PSU had a 26-9 team record in scoring matches (35 total) and went 10-6 in matches decided by 2 or fewer points.

Thoughts?

 

[SWPA]

PSU controls their own destiny.

 

[jmadden1998]

PSU controls their own destiny.

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

 

[js8793]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

what kind of odds could i get for a northwestern title run?

 

[SWPA]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

 

[APSPSUwrestlingfan]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

Technically a tomato is a fruit and if your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle.

 

[ss7]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

I agree. PSU is clearly a distinct underdog to all those teams.

If PSU is able to keep pace with them, or even outscore them, it is obviously due to the sheer grit and determination of PSU's wrestlers and general superiority of PSU's coaching staff.

 

[McScoreley]

Michigan placings at Big Tens that I don't think will happen at NCAAs
Micic - 4th
Lewan - 2nd (could AA)
Amine - 2nd (think he AA's though)

The rest of them are repeatable tbh.

 

[jack66]

what kind of odds could i get for a northwestern title run?

Good odds I'm sure.

That said, finishing tied with perennial recruiting Champs OSU was quite impressive.

 

[82bordeaux]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

Did someone say you’re not argumentative???

 

[NoVa Lion]

what kind of odds could i get for a northwestern title run?

I will give you a million to one, but only if you put up $1K.

 

[RB-Old]

PSU historically wrestles their absolute best at NCAAs, Michigan's only chance is if Cael quits in the next few days.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Technically a tomato is a fruit and if your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle.

His aunt does have balls.

 

[HOCKEYGOD11]

Michigan placings at Big Tens that I don't think will happen at NCAAs
Micic - 4th
Lewan - 2nd (could AA)
Amine - 2nd (think he AA's though)

The rest of them are repeatable tbh.

don't see Ragusin coming 3rd personally.. Possible? sure... I guess but not likely..

 

[HOCKEYGOD11]

Michigan placings at Big Tens that I don't think will happen at NCAAs
Micic - 4th
Lewan - 2nd (could AA)
Amine - 2nd (think he AA's though)

The rest of them are repeatable tbh.

also not buying Massa wrestling to second.. again.. possible but I think we see someone else in the finals.. hopefully across from C star..

 

[jmadden1998]

Did someone say you’re not argumentative???

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Michigan placings at Big Tens that I don't think will happen at NCAAs
Micic - 4th
Lewan - 2nd (could AA)
Amine - 2nd (think he AA's though)

The rest of them are repeatable tbh.

Add Ragusin at #3 - ain’t happening

 

[HOCKEYGOD11]

Add Ragusin at #3 - ain’t happening

agree.. said same above.. I also am not sold Massa will capture that magic again to get into finals.. Possible for sure .. he is a tough kid but he will have a heck of a lot of mines along the way..

 

[johnstownsteel]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

I think if Assad wins title like most are expecting it all over.

 

[McScoreley]

Add Ragusin at #3 - ain’t happening

Oh shoot, totally forgot that happened ... lol. I think he AA's though.

 

[McScoreley]

Obviously Kanen Storr isn't placing 8th also because he didn't qualify.

 

[Ski]

if your aunt had balls she'd be your uncle.

Not anymore. Just sayin'.

 

[1995PSUgrad]

I agree with a few posts on this thread. I would say that Michigan and Penn State both control their own destiny. Yes, I know some teams have 9 or 10 qualifiers, but they realistically have no chance. Brooks and Amine wrestled a close match at the dual and a close match at Big Ten's. There is no reason to think they won't wrestle another close match, which could go either way. (I do believe Brooks will win, so don't get me wrong.) If our guys wrestle the way we expect them to and Michigan's guys wrestle the way they did in the Big Ten Tournament, then it very well could come down to who wins: Brooks or Amine.

I want to believe the posters who have repeatedly said that Michigan won't perform as well at NCAA's. I hope that's the case, and if so, then we clearly control our own destiny and it may not be close. Let's be honest, RBY vs. Fix is going to be a tough one and again Brooks vs. Amine could go either way.

I don't see anyone else having a real chance. A guess an argument could be made for Iowa, but they will need some help to get there. I feel more confident now than I did at the start of the season (pre Berge, pre Hildebrandt--yes I know he didn't contribute at the conference tournament, and with so much uncertainty at 197).

With all that said, I do expect us to win!

 

[johnstownsteel]

PSUs 7 AAs will get it done. Although I may be leaning that we get 8. Can’t wait to go over the brackets tonight.

 

[johnstownsteel]

I agree with a few posts on this thread. I would say that Michigan and Penn State both control their own destiny. Yes, I know some teams have 9 or 10 qualifiers, but they realistically have no chance. Brooks and Amine wrestled a close match at the dual and a close match at Big Ten's. There is no reason to think they won't wrestle another close match, which could go either way. (I do believe Brooks will win, so don't get me wrong.) If our guys wrestle the way we expect them to and Michigan's guys wrestle the way they did in the Big Ten Tournament, then it very well could come down to who wins: Brooks or Amine.

I want to believe the posters who have repeatedly said that Michigan won't perform as well at NCAA's. I hope that's the case, and if so, then we clearly control our own destiny and it may not be close. Let's be honest, RBY vs. Fix is going to be a tough one and again Brooks vs. Amine could go either way.

I don't see anyone else having a real chance. A guess an argument could be made for Iowa, but they will need some help to get there. I feel more confident now than I did at the start of the season (pre Berge, pre Hildebrandt--yes I know he didn't contribute at the conference tournament, and with so much uncertainty at 197).

With all that said, I do expect us to win!

Really can’t argue with any of that.

 

[McScoreley]

PSUs 7 AAs will get it done. Although I may be leaning that we get 8. Can’t wait to go over the brackets tonight.

We scored 113.5 last year 4 champs then 2 7th placers and 4.5 points between our non AA weights (including a NQ at 149 and 0-2 at 165) I think 197, 285 scores more than last year which can offset a champ possible going down and we'll find an AA between Drew and Brady. Hopefully bonus improves this year as well (17 last year) All in all, 115 could be enough to win it this year actually with how other teams are looking.

Iowa's bonus (an astounding 27) I believe will drop from last year (based on how they've looked this year)

 

[jmadden1998]

We scored 113.5 last year 4 champs then 2 7th placers and 4.5 points between our non AA weights (including a NQ at 149 and 0-2 at 165) I think 197, 285 scores more than last year which can offset a champ possible going down and we'll find an AA between Drew and Brady. Hopefully bonus improves this year as well (17 last year) All in all, 115 could be enough to win it this year actually with how other teams are looking.

Iowa's bonus (an astounding 27) I believe will drop from last year (based on how they've looked this year)

Iowa bonus last year
Spencer 4.5.
Desanto 6.
Eierman 5.5
Young 2
Marinelli 2
Kemerer 4
Brands 0
Warner 0
Cass 3

Obviously Spencer is out. Ayala probably wont get more than 1-2 bonus points. I could see Eierman and Kem getting less because of injury. Who else?

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Anything at 125 & 149 will be more than last year, say net 10 to be safe.

133 wash
141 wash
157 +2 or 3
174 wash
184 wash
197 +8 or 10
285 +4 or 6

I get +29 on high side. Out of question??

 

[dunkej01]

Iowa's bonus (an astounding 27) I believe will drop from last year (based on how they've looked this year)

No spencer and the rest of the team is a walking infirmary....so I dont even think they come close to 27. 15 may even be the O/U for them.

scUM is not repeating their B14 run. Its just not. They had the best tournament in 50 years. Good on them but they arent repeating it.

Its PSU and Iowa for all the trophy. It is the way

 

[McScoreley]

Iowa bonus last year
Spencer 4.5.
Desanto 6.
Eierman 5.5
Young 2
Marinelli 2
Kemerer 4
Brands 0
Warner 0
Cass 3

Obviously Spencer is out. Ayala probably wont get more than 1-2 bonus points. I could see Eierman and Kem getting less because of injury. Who else?

As great as ADS is, I don't see him getting 6 this time around. He was a man on fire at NCAAs last year and I don't quite see that happening, just an opinion. Definitely see him bonusing first 2 like always. Eierman got 2 pins last year in the QF and SF and he has pinned 1 D1 guy this year who isn't a NQ. Like I said, I expect it to drop, not that you guys won't get bonus at all.

On the flip side, Assad actually could get some bonus even if he misses the podium.

 

[jack66]

Our hammers won't be sitting out the 1st round at NCAAs. I can see us scoring a lot of bonus wins in the 1st 2 rounds. I can't see Michigan keeping pace, they scored only 5 bonus wins at Bigs (3 of those from Suriano).

Who knows what Iowa can do. They have the studs who can score bonus wins but can their geriatric unit make it through a 3-day tourney.

 

[APSPSUwrestlingfan]

Our hammers won't be sitting out the 1st round at NCAAs. I can see us scoring a lot of bonus wins in the 1st 2 rounds. I can't see Michigan keeping pace, they scored only 5 bonus wins at Bigs (3 of those from Suriano).

Who knows what Iowa can do. They have the studs who can score bonus wins but can their geriatric unit make it through a 3-day tourney.

IMHO the best chance Iowa has is to look for quick pins in early rounds to minimize injuries and time on the mat. Then the bonus points give them a small cushion against losing a scorer or two. Hope Kem is OK. I've enjoyed his style ever since he wrestled Nolf.

 

[McScoreley]

IMHO the best chance Iowa has is to look for quick pins in early rounds to minimize injuries and time on the mat. Then the bonus points give them a small cushion against losing a scorer or two. Hope Kem is OK. I've enjoyed his style ever since he wrestled Nolf.

Kem is really just pain tolerance at this point, don't think his shoulder improves much but it's one more tournament, he can push through it. He told the trainer to put the shoulder back in and found a way to get a takedown against Smith. All heart. I can see him wrapping the shoulder even heavier this time around though.

 

[AndEEss]

Everyone gets 1st round matches at NCAAs as opposed to B1Gs, where having a lot of top-3 seeds actually limits your total potential points.

 

[dunkej01]

Kem is really just pain tolerance at this point, don't think his shoulder improves much but it's one more tournament, he can push through it. He told the trainer to put the shoulder back in and found a way to get a takedown against Smith. All heart. I can see him wrapping the shoulder even heavier this time around though.

unfortunately his competition in what will be the bottom half of the bracket at 174 has some of the P4P heaviest hips in the tournament and there are no easy outs.

I hate to say it because I admire the kid so much, but i will not be shocked if he takes QF loss and then loses again consi semis to go back for 5/6th.

 

[creamery freak]

Technically Iowa, NC State and Northwestern control their own destiny as each has 10 qualifiers and the most max points. Thoughts?

Sorry, even with ten scoring wrestlers wheelchairs, walkers and crutches are not going to get it done!

 

[AgSurfer]

As great as ADS is, I don't see him getting 6 this time around. He was a man on fire at NCAAs last year and I don't quite see that happening, just an opinion. Definitely see him bonusing first 2 like always. Eierman got 2 pins last year in the QF and SF and he has pinned 1 D1 guy this year who isn't a NQ. Like I said, I expect it to drop, not that you guys won't get bonus at all.

On the flip side, Assad actually could get some bonus even if he misses the podium.

Don't forget that there is also a decent probability of ADS subtracting a few points from Iowa's team score.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

unfortunately his competition in what will be the bottom half of the bracket at 174 has some of the P4P heaviest hips in the tournament and there are no easy outs.

I hate to say it because I admire the kid so much, but i will not be shocked if he takes QF loss and then loses again consi semis to go back for 5/6th.

Say hello to Hidlay

 

[jmadden1998]

Don't forget that there is also a decent probability of ADS subtracting a few points from Iowa's team score.

He has competed in 2 NCAA’s and 3 Big 10’s with Iowa and hasn’t lost a team point in any of those tournaments.

 

[RoarLions1]

Same as I called the Big Ten tournament. 1) Hold your seed and 2) Bonus points. Even then, we have more room for error than at Big Ten's.

1) Hold your seed: Decompression plays a big part in this. For Penn State, using B1G finish and not seed, here's what I see inserted for each weight class;
125: 0, DNP
133: 0, won and will be seeded 1
141: 0, won and will be seeded 1
149: 7-8, finished 7, probably seeded 14-15 imo
157: A bunch, finished 3rd, but lack of matches will make him low-mid teens imo
174: 0, won and will be seeded 1
184: 1, finished 2nd, will be seeded 3-4
197: 0, won and will be seeded 1
285: 1-2, finished 3rd, seeded 4-5 imo

MICH
125: 0, won and will be seeded 1
133: 3, 3rd at B1G's, probably will be about 6 at NCAA's imo
141: A bunch, 4th at B1G's, probably mid-high teens imo
157: About 7, 2nd at B1G's, about 9th seed at NCAA's imo
165: 8-12, 2nd at B1G's
174: 1, 2nd at B1G's, Lewis inserted
184: 0, won and will be seeded 1
197: 3 or so, 3rd at B1G's, Elam, Buchanan and Bonaccorsi inserted
285: 1-2, 4th at B1G's, being 6th would be a potential benefit for Michigan

Soooo, Michigan loses theoretical points, and lots of them, at 141, 157, 165. Fewer points at 133 and 197. I believe Parris will benefit from his seed.
For PSU, big points theoretically only at 149 and 157. Fewer points at 285, and a Brooks 3 seed should be improved upon. Add to that anything that Hildebrandt does as gravy. An AA finish and I'll add the mashed potatoes, giving PSU an even bigger advantage.

2) Bonus Points
PSU outscored Michigan in the Bonus Point battle, I believe, 19 to 8.5. It could be a larger difference at NCAA's.