Hello,
I am going to be sharing a weekly segment (Friday night or Saturday morning, until / if PSU losses again) to help Penn State on who to root for.
1A) Penn State over Michigan State by at least 10-14 Points.
1B) LSU over Georgia.
Georgia's only other real games left are at Kentucky and Auburn at home. This is their best chance to lose before Alabama beats them in the SEC championship game.
In order for PSU to make the playoffs they need the SEC runner up to have 2 losses.
Being that I dont see any team that can beat Alabama ,this would insure the SEC only gets one team in.
2) Oregon over Washington. With Auburn losing last week as well as Standard (both hurt Washington's resume). This will all but eliminate the PAC 12 chances of making the playoffs.
3) ISU over WV. Even if West Virginia wins I dont see them getting through the balance of the schedule without two losses (they still have texas, ou, osu, tcu) then big 12 title game. Since PSU would benefit from the potential big 12 champ having 2 losses, this would allow WV to then beat either TEX or OU and deal them their second loss and pose less of a risk for a one loss big 12 champ to make a case for the playoffs.
MOST LIKLEY WAY WIN IN THE BIG 10 (This could get Penn State in the Playoffs with little help from other teams losing)
Statistically that best chance for Penn State to win the BIG 10 East is for OSU to keep winning, Michigan to lose to Penn State, and then Michigan beats OSU, thus creating a 3 way tie.
It is more likely Michigan beats OSU once, then OSU losing twice.
In this case the tie breaker would be the best record of the "cross over" teams each team played:
PSU: IOWA, WIS, ILL
MICH: NW, NEB, WIN
OSU: NEB, MINN, PUR
In this case Penn State will be pulling for: MICH>WIS, IOWA > IU, ILL > PUR
NEB vs NW - Outcome does not matter since they both play MICH and would cancel out each other.
TCU losing again this week does help PSU in the case above, because it continues to hurt OSU's SOS as that will come into play if a big 10 conference champ PSU(12-1) is being compared to a non conference champ OSU (11-1) with a win over PSU.
OTHER GAMES OF NOTE UNDER THE RADAR:
#1
PAC 12:
USC over Colorado. This would do two things, one give CU there first loss and hurt the overall standing of the PAC 12.
More Important for Penn State - Notre Dame having to travel to USC the last week of the year IMO is their best chance to lose. If they play a USC team that clinches the PAC 12 the week before, they will be a lot more motivated and focused because they will have more to play for.
USC winning out the rest of the way will only benefit there chances of upsetting ND.
#2
ACC:
If you think Miami has a better chance of beating Clemson in the ACC championship game than VT (VT already has 2 losses, so even if they made it to the ACC championship game and won they have no chance of making the playoffs), you would want to root for UVA over Miami this week, in case they upset Clemson in the ACC Champ game they would be a 2 loss conference champ. If Miami won out as ,a 1 loss conference champ it could be an issue for Penn State.
#3
SEC:
South Carolina over Texas AM - Penn State would benefit from TAM losing as many as possible to hurt Clemson's SOS in case they lose a game along they way and there is debate between a one loss Clemson and a one loss Penn State.
#4 PITT over NOTRE DAME... no chance..good luck next week NOTE DAME losing
I am going to be sharing a weekly segment (Friday night or Saturday morning, until / if PSU losses again) to help Penn State on who to root for.
1A) Penn State over Michigan State by at least 10-14 Points.
1B) LSU over Georgia.
Georgia's only other real games left are at Kentucky and Auburn at home. This is their best chance to lose before Alabama beats them in the SEC championship game.
In order for PSU to make the playoffs they need the SEC runner up to have 2 losses.
Being that I dont see any team that can beat Alabama ,this would insure the SEC only gets one team in.
2) Oregon over Washington. With Auburn losing last week as well as Standard (both hurt Washington's resume). This will all but eliminate the PAC 12 chances of making the playoffs.
3) ISU over WV. Even if West Virginia wins I dont see them getting through the balance of the schedule without two losses (they still have texas, ou, osu, tcu) then big 12 title game. Since PSU would benefit from the potential big 12 champ having 2 losses, this would allow WV to then beat either TEX or OU and deal them their second loss and pose less of a risk for a one loss big 12 champ to make a case for the playoffs.
MOST LIKLEY WAY WIN IN THE BIG 10 (This could get Penn State in the Playoffs with little help from other teams losing)
Statistically that best chance for Penn State to win the BIG 10 East is for OSU to keep winning, Michigan to lose to Penn State, and then Michigan beats OSU, thus creating a 3 way tie.
It is more likely Michigan beats OSU once, then OSU losing twice.
In this case the tie breaker would be the best record of the "cross over" teams each team played:
PSU: IOWA, WIS, ILL
MICH: NW, NEB, WIN
OSU: NEB, MINN, PUR
In this case Penn State will be pulling for: MICH>WIS, IOWA > IU, ILL > PUR
NEB vs NW - Outcome does not matter since they both play MICH and would cancel out each other.
TCU losing again this week does help PSU in the case above, because it continues to hurt OSU's SOS as that will come into play if a big 10 conference champ PSU(12-1) is being compared to a non conference champ OSU (11-1) with a win over PSU.
OTHER GAMES OF NOTE UNDER THE RADAR:
#1
PAC 12:
USC over Colorado. This would do two things, one give CU there first loss and hurt the overall standing of the PAC 12.
More Important for Penn State - Notre Dame having to travel to USC the last week of the year IMO is their best chance to lose. If they play a USC team that clinches the PAC 12 the week before, they will be a lot more motivated and focused because they will have more to play for.
USC winning out the rest of the way will only benefit there chances of upsetting ND.
#2
ACC:
If you think Miami has a better chance of beating Clemson in the ACC championship game than VT (VT already has 2 losses, so even if they made it to the ACC championship game and won they have no chance of making the playoffs), you would want to root for UVA over Miami this week, in case they upset Clemson in the ACC Champ game they would be a 2 loss conference champ. If Miami won out as ,a 1 loss conference champ it could be an issue for Penn State.
#3
SEC:
South Carolina over Texas AM - Penn State would benefit from TAM losing as many as possible to hurt Clemson's SOS in case they lose a game along they way and there is debate between a one loss Clemson and a one loss Penn State.
#4 PITT over NOTRE DAME... no chance..good luck next week NOTE DAME losing
