Just look at the HS talent pools. If demography is destiny, then the top 5 would include PSU, Pitt, Ohio State, and Rutger most years if not every year. Illinois and Michigan would be top 10 locks and pushing top 5 most years. Add Cornell and Lehigh due to the talent pools, recognizing some limitations as private schools. Maybe throw in Arizona State, but only because it's the nearest major public school program to California.
In reality, only PSU, Michigan, and Cornell have lived up to their demographics. Ohio State did for a while but has fallen by a tier (and is the most likely to climb back up). Pitt is improving but not remotely there yet. Rutger remains elite.
