You pulled statistics that favor your argument which is fair as I did with mine!This post isn't necessarily about who would have won in 2020(Iowa, duh). However, the rehashed argument reminded me that a lot of people don't recognize the very, very strong correlation in regards to B1Gs and NCAA team placement for both Cael and Tom.
Some quick hitter info(% excludes 2020):
Tom and Cael's teams typically place at NCAAs within 1 spot of B1Gs finish. 82% for Tom and 93% for Cael.
Cael teams rarely finish outside top 2 at B1Gs(14%). When they do, however, they place lower at NCAAs(100%).
When Tom's teams win B1Gs, they typically win NCAAs(80%).
However, I would like to say not all teams are created equal. Cael historically has made his money with his top seeds at NCAA.
Across those 2 non Top 2 Big Ten teams, they had a combined 4 Top 5 seed. PSU had 5 alone in 2020.
4 of the 5 (RBY, Lee, Cenzo, Hall) have felt out their top competition (Seabass/Gross, Pletcher/Woods, Marinelli, Kemerer) and who can argue against Cael as a game planner/adjuster? Then there is AB who had Bolen as his semis match and then likely Hidlay (he handily beat Lujan at CKLV) He was younger but so was Hidlay and I just like that draw a ton for AB.
Cael's performance the following year leads me to think I have way more reason for optimism in 2020 than pessimism.