AS THE BIRD TURNS (IOWA STUFF)
- Thread starter Lyco1990
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Top 3 eventually, maybe. Not in 2025 though.
The room he will develop in is not all that renowned for developing top 3 upper weight talent.
They have to strive for realistic goals. Winning a team title over Cael in the near future isn't likely and to be honest with DT now at Okie State and the guys he took with him Iowa is going to be fighting for third place. At least that is my hot take on the matter.
“He’s (Kerk) the only top 20 heavy Ben has faced”
*Ben beat the ranked 11 heavy*
I’m just pointing out Ben did have a match with a top 20 heavy that was not Kerk.
In PSU's 11 most recent championships Iowa has managed to finish second to PSU exactly 1 time. OkieSt, Cornell, Minnesota. Michigan and OhioSt have filled the runner-up position the other ten times. If Taylor builds OkieSt into PSU's primary challenger there is a strong likelihood Iowa will soon begin to finish 4th or worse on a regular basis.
Any chance we can get the Iowa AD to extend TnT for at least another 10 or 20 years?
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I like (their) guys
It depends on whose ranking you choose to believe.
Wrestlestat had him at 22.
I suppose that finishing outside the round of 12 puts Doucet somewhere between last year.
Like I said, until proven otherwise, I see Kueter anywhere from R12 to 6th this year and as a potential champ down the road.
Undoubtedly, he is good from neutral, but as you know, lots of heavies specialize in slowing a match down.
Your confidence might be spot on, but I need to see him get through an entire season of heavyweights leaning on him in folk before projecting him as an AA.
I agree with your list and he will be tested very early in the season with Yonger. I believe Kueter will be a low AA (5-8) this year and a finals contender after this year with how many top guys leave with only Feldman remaining.
Doucet was 11th in the coaches poll and was the 12 seed. Most people would take either of those ahead of WrestleStat "rankings."
Cass finished 3rd in 2021 and 4th in 2023, and won U23 gold.
Kueter is more talented than Cass, though not as developed thanks to football.
Top 3 this year would take a great draw in consis. Kerk and Hendrickson are both clearly better. Feldman is ahead of him today. He might get Schultz, but it's hardly a given. And Bastida will no longer have a broken hand. Everybody else at the weight can be had, but some might also get him.
In 2026, HWT will likely boil down to Feldman and Kueter.
You make a great point right up until you said "wrestlestat" 😂. Otherwise I agree 😂
Iowa is reminiscing on their 2020 team title on GIA again. That was the year they were going to overachieve and PSU was going to fall apart at NCAAs despite almost 20 years of evidence to the contrary.
PSU fell apart with 4 national champs the next year.
"Had Enough Wrestling" Pretty prevalent in 5th and 6th year wrestlers, sometimes earlier though. A disease where a wrestler just has grown tired of the sport, often because of how hard the training and lifestyle is and they just want to be done with it.
Symptoms include clearly lacking energy in matches, no urgency when down, just going through the motions and taking losses to guys who seem just to want it more despite no signs of injury.
Remind me - that was the Pat Lugo guaranteed 149 champ year, right?
And Marinelli was going to defy his quarters curse against Evan Wick
That was the same Lugo who was among Turk's nobodies Zain beat, right?
In my own little world it still means Hot Evil Women.
One of the most unbelievable losses ever! Blair absolutely took the team in his back 90 yards and then we blow an extra point fg! As you said, run Blair again or he keeps his balance on the previous play and we win!
It was. Didn't "nobody" Ronnie Perry beat Sorenson that last year?
Note: This was back when GIA was using the "who have they beaten" excuse, before they turned to the "other wrestlers are throwing matches to them" excuse.
No matter, it will all be over once Lilledahl, Sealey, Duke, Ryder, and the Mirasolas graduate 😂
If I had to guess Iowa would have won that year, but if we did one of those computer simulations for 10,000 matches I'm thinking PSU would win 2/10-4/10 based on their over performances over the years. Now that's typical PSU and Iowa under performing is even more typical.
2020 PSU:
Champs at 141 (NLee), 165 (Cenzo), 174 (Hall) and 184 (Brooks). High finishes from RBY and Shakur (who had just beaten Warner at Big Tens and was rounding into wrestling shape after the long injury layoff). 103-109 before bonus.
2020 Iowa:
Marinelli was slated to see Wick (big-time Krypotonite for Marinelli over his career) in the quarters. Warner was going to see Rasheed in 2nd round (Rasheed had just beaten him at Big Tens). Young had just gone 0-2 at Big Tens and had lost his last 3 matches. Lugo was a one-seed with 8th place being his best ever NCAA tournament performance.
Additionally
The past three seasons (2022, 2023 and 2024), the point differential between Penn State and Iowa moved in favor of Penn State by 45.5 points, 42.5 points and 45.5 points, respectively, between Big Tens and NCAAs. That’s not quite enough to overcome the 50.5 points PSU finished behind Iowa at B1Gs in 2020, but it’s close. And NCAAs wasn’t going to be watered down without the Ivies like it was in 2021; meaning four champs would carry more weight than it did in 2021.
Iowa taking 2020 was far from a certainty.
Champs at 141 (NLee), 165 (Cenzo), 174 (Hall) and 184 (Brooks). High finishes from RBY and Shakur (who had just beaten Warner at Big Tens and was rounding into wrestling shape after the long injury layoff). 103-109 before bonus.
2020 Iowa:
Marinelli was slated to see Wick (big-time Krypotonite for Marinelli over his career) in the quarters. Warner was going to see Rasheed in 2nd round (Rasheed had just beaten him at Big Tens). Young had just gone 0-2 at Big Tens and had lost his last 3 matches. Lugo was a one-seed with 8th place being his best ever NCAA tournament performance.
Additionally
The past three seasons (2022, 2023 and 2024), the point differential between Penn State and Iowa moved in favor of Penn State by 45.5 points, 42.5 points and 45.5 points, respectively, between Big Tens and NCAAs. That’s not quite enough to overcome the 50.5 points PSU finished behind Iowa at B1Gs in 2020, but it’s close. And NCAAs wasn’t going to be watered down without the Ivies like it was in 2021; meaning four champs would carry more weight than it did in 2021.
Iowa taking 2020 was far from a certainty.
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I'd say Iowa had about an 83% chance of winning.
I chatted with Sugar Shak during covid. He was 100% convinced that he was winning that tourney and PSU as well.
Someone mentioned 83%. Probably about right. If the tournament was wrestled 100 times PSU wins 83 times.
There is certainly enough data available to strongly suggest PSU steps up at the NCAAs while Iowa comes up short.
There is certainly enough data available to strongly suggest PSU steps up at the NCAAs while Iowa comes up short.
Exactly, I think Iowa would be a big favorite but again it was the perception that psu was over performing while Iowa had under performed over those years. Now I think it’s safe to say psu was not over performing , they were just better.
I posted a long time ago (some things are out of context but general gist of my analysis): No PSU fan should have said we'd have won 2020 and should concede Iowa was overwhelming favorites. However, the tournament didn't happen and extracting Big Ten place to NCAAs was just flawed. Then again Iowa fans NCAA tournament projections are never logical so what else can you expect.
Also, Iowa got made whole eligibility wise. They lost Lugo's year but Eierman got another year for 2022. That's a net wash. PSU lost Cenzo/Hall forever. What would 2021 have looked like if hypothetically we had Cenzo and Mark available to slot somewhere (hint we'd win cause we lost by 15.5 with 0 points at 165) All in all, everything happens for a reason and I'm glad Aaron/Carter had opportunities to go weights that allowed them to eventually win 4 but a lineup of Cenzo/Starocci/Mark/AB from 165 to 197 that year ... sheesh.
As they were in 2021, which they won with a single champ in a watered down field. I believe they were the prohibitive favorite in 2011, as well as the co-favorite in 2015. Since Cael showed up at PSU and elevated the PSU wrestling level to elite, being the favorite has not meant much for Iowa.
How would this board have reacted if instead of 172.5, we only had Kerkvliet win this year, AB and CStar both lost in the semis and Iowa had 4 individual champions somehow as we only won by 10 and ESPN declared Iowa was back on national TV.
That's a cumulation of Iowa's feelings in 2021 basically. I see why they want to go back to 2020 and give themselves a flawless tournament.
That's a cumulation of Iowa's feelings in 2021 basically. I see why they want to go back to 2020 and give themselves a flawless tournament.
Cornell was the favorite in 2011.
This post isn't necessarily about who would have won in 2020(Iowa, duh). However, the rehashed argument reminded me that a lot of people don't recognize the very, very strong correlation in regards to B1Gs and NCAA team placement for both Cael and Tom.
Some quick hitter info(% excludes 2020):
Tom and Cael's teams typically place at NCAAs within 1 spot of B1Gs finish. 82% for Tom and 93% for Cael.
Cael teams rarely finish outside top 2 at B1Gs(14%). When they do, however, they place lower at NCAAs(100%).
When Tom's teams win B1Gs, they typically win NCAAs(80%).
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