BiG Position Ratings

[bdgan]

I just saw this Wisconsin article and thought I'd post it

This is where the article ranked PSU:

• DL 3rd behind OSU & UM
• LB 5th behind IA, UM, OR, OSU
• DB 4th behind OSU, UM, IA
• WR 5th behind OR, OSU, USC, UM
• OL 6th behind OR, OSU, UM, Minn, Wisc
• RB 2nd behind OSU
• QB 3rd behind OSU, OR
• Overall 4th behind OSU, OR, UM

Analyzing Big Ten football 2024 preseason position group rankings

Big Ten Football Preseason Rankings from Athlon Sports:

badgerswire.usatoday.com

 

[AvalonJohn]

I don't know about the individual position rankings, but for those who cry, including myself, about losing to OSU and UM everytime we play them better get use to including Oregon in there. So 4th sounds about right!

 

[bdroc]

I don't know about the individual position rankings, but for those who cry, including myself, about losing to OSU and UM everytime we play them better get use to including Oregon in there. So 4th sounds about right!

Franklin used to be able to get recruits by promoting things like education, family atmosphere, and a chance at a BiG title like they did in 2016. I'm afraid it's now more about the money. It's going to be more difficult once we lose players like Allar, Singleton, Allen, Carter, & Sutton and have to compete for replacements with money.

 

[lazydave841]

like they did in 2016.

2016 was a magical ride, but probably amped up expectations by 1000%. Nobody predicted that team to win the Big 10. Truth be told, it was James best coaching job and we still lost 3 games.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I just saw this Wisconsin article and thought I'd post it

This is where the article ranked PSU:

• DL 3rd behind OSU & UM
• LB 5th behind IA, UM, OR, OSU
• DB 4th behind OSU, UM, IA
• WR 5th behind OR, OSU, USC, UM
• OL 6th behind OR, OSU, UM, Minn, Wisc
• RB 2nd behind OSU
• QB 3rd behind OSU, OR
• Overall 4th behind OSU, OR, UM

Analyzing Big Ten football 2024 preseason position group rankings

Big Ten Football Preseason Rankings from Athlon Sports:

badgerswire.usatoday.com

How can Ohio St not have the #1 WR group when every year they bring in like 3 top 100 overall/at any position WRs in the country?

2024: #1 WR (#1 overall), #12 WR (#59 overall)
2023: #3 WR (#22 overall), #5 WR (#35 overall), #8 WR (#40 overall)
2022: #8 WR (#63 overall), #10 WR (#70 overall), #13 WR (#78 overall)
2021: #1 WR (#9 overall), #4 WR (#55 overall)

There aren't that many top 100 WRs on any NFL team's roster.

 

[PSU20]

Allar had a QB rating of 86.3; Gabriel 91.9, Howard 78.1. Is the OSU starting QB another boy wonder rs freshman, other than Howard who the rating services like more than Allar.

I'll take 25-2 for a 1st year starter. Gabriel had 30 TD's. Don't know how many picks he threw.

 

[bdgan]

2016 was a magical ride, but probably amped up expectations by 1000%. Nobody predicted that team to win the Big 10. Truth be told, it was James best coaching job and we still lost 3 games.

I don't know if I'd call that Franklin's best coaching job. It was a game that turned on one play but that could be said of the several close losses.

OSU has had better recruiting classes but a PSU team that only has a 30% chance to win those games should still be able to win 3 out of 10. They just have to make that one big play in close games but PSU has failed to do that under Franklin. My observation is that Franklin's shorts get tight in those situations and if he lacks confidence and plays scared his players follow suit. JMO.

 

[LandoComando]

How can Ohio St not have the #1 WR group when every year they bring in like 3 top 100 overall/at any position WRs in the country?

2024: #1 WR (#1 overall), #12 WR (#59 overall)
2023: #3 WR (#22 overall), #5 WR (#35 overall), #8 WR (#40 overall)
2022: #8 WR (#63 overall), #10 WR (#70 overall), #13 WR (#78 overall)
2021: #1 WR (#9 overall), #4 WR (#55 overall)

There aren't that many top 100 WRs on any NFL team's roster.

It's WR plus TE which is why we're as high as we are
But, yeah, Ohio State/Oregon is really a coin flip there. Probably a case of overvaluing the loss of Harrison and Fleming

 

[lazydave841]

How can Ohio St not have the #1 WR group when every year they bring in like 3 top 100 overall/at any position WRs in the country?

2024: #1 WR (#1 overall), #12 WR (#59 overall)
2023: #3 WR (#22 overall), #5 WR (#35 overall), #8 WR (#40 overall)
2022: #8 WR (#63 overall), #10 WR (#70 overall), #13 WR (#78 overall)
2021: #1 WR (#9 overall), #4 WR (#55 overall)

There aren't that many top 100 WRs on any NFL team's roster.

It's WR plus TE which is why we're as high as we are
But, yeah, Ohio State/Oregon is really a coin flip there. Probably a case of overvaluing the loss of Harrison and Fleming

College production trumps potential. While the Buckeyes probably have 3 future 1st rounders on the roster, 1 was hurt last year, 1 barely played and the other is a true freshman.

Oregon returns a WR with 80+ receptions and brought in Stewart from A&M.

I don't know if I'd call that Franklin's best coaching job. It was a game that turned on one play but that could be said of the several close losses.

OSU has had better recruiting classes but a PSU team that only has a 30% chance to win those games should still be able to win 3 out of 10. They just have to make that one big play in close games but PSU has failed to do that under Franklin. My observation is that Franklin's shorts get tight in those situations and if he lacks confidence and plays scared his players follow suit. JMO.

I think you have to look at that game through the '16 lens vs the '24 lens. That roster had some great skill position players, but was not a team that anybody gave a 30% chance to win. Pitt ran on us. Michigan ran through us. The Buckeyes were expected to do the same.

The game might be remembered for one play, but we fought back from 2 deficits. Down 12-0, we drove 70 some yards to score a TD and cut the lead to 5 before halftime. Then after giving up a big TD run and a self destructive safety, we big play offense our way 90 yards in 5 plays for a TD then block a punt to setup a FG that cut the lead to 4. Driving late, we then held them to a FG that we block and return for a lead taking TD before holding them from scoring the next 4 minutes.

We could have lost that game at no less than 4 points and somehow pulled the upset. If that isn't James best coaching, I don't know what is.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I don't know if I'd call that Franklin's best coaching job. It was a game that turned on one play but that could be said of the several close losses.

OSU has had better recruiting classes but a PSU team that only has a 30% chance to win those games should still be able to win 3 out of 10. They just have to make that one big play in close games but PSU has failed to do that under Franklin. My observation is that Franklin's shorts get tight in those situations and if he lacks confidence and plays scared his players follow suit. JMO.

We don't have a 30% chance. They have had more 5 stars on their roster than the entire rest of the Big 10 combined and it's been that way for at least a decade. We have had maybe a 20% chance at best and then we've gotten massive game changing calls against us like the penalty on our defensive TD last year and the like 3 flags in a row after that which allowed Ohio St to score. That series would have changed the outcome of that game. It was a 14-point swing at a critical juncture.

We have to overcome a massive talent deficit against them and almost always the refs inserting themselves at the most critical moments of the game.

Michigan has overcome the talent deficit with spying on play calls, dominant line play pushing Ohio St around like their little brother, and getting at least even calls from the referines.

 

[heckmans]

2016 was a magical ride, but probably amped up expectations by 1000%. Nobody predicted that team to win the Big 10. Truth be told, it was James best coaching job and we still lost 3 games.

humbly, I put 2016 on JoMo. It was his offense, coupled with Trace's leadership.
In the Pitt game, the took the brakes off Trace literally during the game. That season was the tale of before and after that moment.

I love Frankin, the man. I love Franklin as a recruiter, mentor, father, politician, administrator. As a football coach....I think he has exceeded the Peter Principle.

 

[royboy]

I just saw this Wisconsin article and thought I'd post it

This is where the article ranked PSU:

• DL 3rd behind OSU & UM
• LB 5th behind IA, UM, OR, OSU
• DB 4th behind OSU, UM, IA
• WR 5th behind OR, OSU, USC, UM
• OL 6th behind OR, OSU, UM, Minn, Wisc
• RB 2nd behind OSU
• QB 3rd behind OSU, OR
• Overall 4th behind OSU, OR, UM

Analyzing Big Ten football 2024 preseason position group rankings

Big Ten Football Preseason Rankings from Athlon Sports:

badgerswire.usatoday.com

With 18 teams in the conference, PSU should win a lot of conference games, and have a very good shot at the expanded CFP. Lots can happen in such playoffs.

This is not doom and gloom. It is a challenge.

**by the way, look at Washington -- from CFP finals to 9th ranked talent in new conference

 

[bdgan]

We don't have a 30% chance. They have had more 5 stars on their roster than the entire rest of the Big 10 combined and it's been that way for at least a decade. We have had maybe a 20% chance at best

Sometimes the 5* kids don't pan out and sometimes 3/4* kids outperform their rankings. Sometimes OSU is reloading and playing their 5* freshmen and sophomores against our 4* juniors and seniors. Sometimes the team with more talent makes mistakes while the underdog plays a clean game. Sometimes you get a favorable call or a lucky bounce. It's not like OSU is playing Indiana. So yes, I believe that PSU should have been able to win one out of every 3 or 4 games.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Sometimes the 5* kids don't pan out and sometimes 3/4* kids outperform their rankings. Sometimes OSU is reloading and playing their 5* freshmen and sophomores against our 4* juniors and seniors. Sometimes the team with more talent makes mistakes while the underdog plays a clean game. Sometimes you get a favorable call or a lucky bounce. It's not like OSU is playing Indiana. So yes, I believe that PSU should have been able to win one out of every 3 or 4 games.

I think 30% is way overshooting our odds of winning considering they have had top 3 in the nation talent for well over a decade and we've had top 15 to 25 during that timeframe (worse during sanctions). And they always get the favorable calls at critical times. Many here can post clips of our defenders getting tackled behind in their backfield with no call on TD plays and we get chintzy flags on us that bring back huge game changing plays. It happens almost yearly.

 

[The Spin Meister]

humbly, I put 2016 on JoMo. It was his offense, coupled with Trace's leadership.
In the Pitt game, the took the brakes off Trace literally during the game. That season was the tale of before and after that moment.

I love Frankin, the man. I love Franklin as a recruiter, mentor, father, politician, administrator. As a football coach....I think he has exceeded the Peter Principle.

Mmmm who hired JoMo?

Who recruited Trace?

Who put them together?

Who recruited the other key players?

Who helped put it all together?

 

[Obliviax]

Mmmm who hired JoMo?

Who recruited Trace?

Who put them together?

Who recruited the other key players?

Who helped put it all together?

Yep. Your record is who you are That’s why the games are played.

 

[heckmans]

Mmmm who hired JoMo?

Who recruited Trace?

Who put them together?

Who recruited the other key players?

Who helped put it all together?

okay. We're splitting hairs to some degree. The post I responded to said it was JF's best "best coaching job and we still lost 3 games."
If you want to make the case that JF is a CEO and head recruiter, I'm fine with that. I just think the evidence is clear that JF is not excelling at this level in the actual Xs and Os and in-game decision making. Love everything else about him, but PSU's success has largely ebbed and flowed with the quality of the coordinators from year to year.

 

[lazydave841]

humbly, I put 2016 on JoMo. It was his offense, coupled with Trace's leadership.

Go back and watch the OSU game from that year; it was a complete effort. Trace only completed 8 passes. The defense stepped up and held at key moments while the STs came up huge even with a missed FG.

JoeMo was huge in '16, but he wasn't the end all, be all vs OSU.

 

[SR108]

I just saw this Wisconsin article and thought I'd post it

This is where the article ranked PSU:

• DL 3rd behind OSU & UM
• LB 5th behind IA, UM, OR, OSU
• DB 4th behind OSU, UM, IA
• WR 5th behind OR, OSU, USC, UM
• OL 6th behind OR, OSU, UM, Minn, Wisc
• RB 2nd behind OSU
• QB 3rd behind OSU, OR
• Overall 4th behind OSU, OR, UM

Analyzing Big Ten football 2024 preseason position group rankings

Big Ten Football Preseason Rankings from Athlon Sports:

badgerswire.usatoday.com

Considering UM graduated most of their team and the fact that we have been on par with them recruiting wise, I don’t really get being behind them in the defensive categories.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Considering UM graduated most of their team and the fact that we have been on par with them recruiting wise, I don’t really get being behind them in the defensive categories.

I think UM's projections this year are a lot of based on the last 2. But Hairball is gone and so are most of their top players.

 

[Obliviax]

Considering UM graduated most of their team and the fact that we have been on par with them recruiting wise, I don’t really get being behind them in the defensive categories.

yep. kinda sucks we drew tOSU on the schedule and not UM.

Regardless, based on those rankings our weak points are LB and OL. i think we are ok to good there. So that makes me feel better that we won't have any glaring weaknesses. I am surprised about the WR rating though.

 

[SR108]

yep. kinda sucks we drew tOSU on the schedule and not UM.

Regardless, based on those rankings our weak points are LB and OL. i think we are ok to good there. So that makes me feel better that we won't have any glaring weaknesses. I am surprised about the WR rating though.

Yep, WR ranking higher than expected, says something about over all league strength at the position other than tosu

 

[lazydave841]

Considering UM graduated most of their team and the fact that we have been on par with them recruiting wise, I don’t really get being behind them in the defensive categories.

Michigan returns the 2 DTs (who are UNITS), Stewart on the Edge, Moore at that hybrid End/OLB spot, Will Johnson (top 3 Corner), and the portal between last year and this has kept the LB Corp replenished.

New coaches at the primary 3 spots will be the difference and seemingly another season removed from the "advanced scouting technique". Michigan should be strong defensively. Strong enough to carry the offense breaking in everyone (QB the biggie) and anointing Edwards the lead RB. The OL will be a huge question mark.

With our NFL departures, I'm ok being behind them defensively.

 

[bvillebaron]

I don't know if I'd call that Franklin's best coaching job. It was a game that turned on one play but that could be said of the several close losses.

OSU has had better recruiting classes but a PSU team that only has a 30% chance to win those games should still be able to win 3 out of 10. They just have to make that one big play in close games but PSU has failed to do that under Franklin. My observation is that Franklin's shorts get tight in those situations and if he lacks confidence and plays scared his players follow suit. JMO.

Okay how about if you be the one to tell me what strategical “mistake” Franklin made when PSU lost to Michigan a couple of years when a TE took a simple crossing pattern thrown 5 yards for a long TD late in the game since no one else ever has. But maybe you have some inside information about Franklin’s shorts during games. Geez.

 

[bdgan]

With 18 teams in the conference, PSU should win a lot of conference games, and have a very good shot at the expanded CFP. Lots can happen in such playoffs.

This is not doom and gloom. It is a challenge.

**by the way, look at Washington -- from CFP finals to 9th ranked talent in new conference

Washington lost a lot of players and they don't reload like OSU. Of course that's in the past. Going forward I think it's all about NIL money. From what I've read PSU is in a better position than most wrt NIL but they're way behind schools like OSU & Oregon. I read that those two schools have $23 million each in NIL money vs on $10 million for Nebraska & Washington.

 

[Obliviax]

Washington lost a lot of players and they don't reload like OSU. Of course that's in the past. Going forward I think it's all about NIL money. From what I've read PSU is in a better position than most wrt NIL but they're way behind schools like OSU & Oregon. I read that those two schools have $23 million each in NIL money vs on $10 million for Nebraska & Washington.

you make a good point.

Washington has been up and down as a program. USC has as well. Oregon is also a bit bumpy but they've had the sustaining money behind them being a Nike product/project. So of the teams that the B1G has ingested, the only program I feel is better than ours is Oregon. I think we can beat USC, UCLA and Washington in most seasons. So that leaves tOSU, UM and Oregon as the programs I feel our better than ours at this point. I will add that USC has the potential to be another Alabama but, for whatever reason, can't seem to put it all together. I have no idea why a school with that much money, tradition, entertainment stars and songbirds can't be in the top ten every single year.

 

[bdgan]

Okay how about if you be the one to tell me what strategical “mistake” Franklin made when PSU lost to Michigan a couple of years when a TE took a simple crossing pattern thrown 5 yards for a long TD late in the game since no one else ever has. But maybe you have some inside information about Franklin’s shorts during games. Geez.

I don't know if there was a specific strategic mistake in that instance. It's always difficult to tell how much is the players vs how much is the coaches. Did the coaches fail to communicate to Devyn Ford that he shouldn't have scored a TD vs Indiana or was Ford simply disobedient? I don't think we'll ever know the answer.

What I can say is that PSU has had more than their fair share of late game collapses. Some of that is apparent to me with the play calling or disorganization getting the plays in without calling time outs. The rest is difficult to detect but I do think it's the coaches job to put players in a position where they're confident and most likely to succeed. 2 DBs colliding vs UM might have been just one of those things that happens but it confusion and lack of confidence could have also been a factor. I just think if you toss a coin 100 times and get only 20 heads there's something more at play than random luck.

 

[bdgan]

you make a good point.

Washington has been up and down as a program. USC has as well. Oregon is also a bit bumpy but they've had the sustaining money behind them being a Nike product/project. So of the teams that the B1G has ingested, the only program I feel is better than ours is Oregon. I think we can beat USC, UCLA and Washington in most seasons. So that leaves tOSU, UM and Oregon as the programs I feel our better than ours at this point. I will add that USC has the potential to be another Alabama but, for whatever reason, can't seem to put it all together. I have no idea why a school with that much money, tradition, entertainment stars and songbirds can't be in the top ten every single year.

Agree but I'm concerned that USC might be difficult to compete with on NIL.

 

[LionFan87b]

Yep. Your record is who you are That’s why the games are played.

People like to say that, but their actions tell a different story. If that were true, then every time a coach had a losing season, he would be fired, even if it was his first year.

 

[Obliviax]

People like to say that, but their actions tell a different story. If that were true, then every time a coach had a losing season, he would be fired, even if it was his first year.

I see what you mean.

I think people want to see progress, not a losing season. If my team was 1-10 and we had a great recruiting year in the coach's first year, I'd be satisfied. Nebraska is a good example. Their new headcoach is on his honeymoon and has a year or two to show progress. And, of course, teams ebb and flow. Washington, for example, could have a bad year but they lost a ton and haven't had the kind of program that can just reload. UM is in a similar boat: good talent with a new staff. But in the end, the record is the tale of the tape.

For CJF, he took a program that had been stabilized by the previous coach but had a TON of challenges in the post-JS era. We couldn't afford a misstep since the program and university had so much damage done. He hit lightening in a bottle with Barkley and McSorely. We've kind of bounced around since. The COVID year was an anomaly and can't be compared. So I think, with CJF, we'll get more of the same. Good team, good kids, credit to the school, no championships. That is who we are. And the record shows that. Is it enough? PSU's AD and leadership has to make that call.

 

[GregInPitt]

Considering UM graduated most of their team and the fact that we have been on par with them recruiting wise, I don’t really get being behind them in the defensive categories.

As I read down through this thread that was my opinion as well. No team this side of OSU or possibly Bama can lose over half their starters most of which went to the NFL and come back as a top 5 program. And ranking their positions, mostly decimated by graduation, that high is unrealistic. Experience is a big factor in performance for college players even in the current era of game ready freshmen. And although UM has recruited well, mostly on a par with PSU, they don't have a roster full of 5 star players like OSU and Bama has. I'll be very surprised if UM finishes this season in the top 10 and I look for some negative surprises in the post season evaluations of their position groups.

For example, UM lost their top 6 olinemen. An Oline's level of play is about talent and playing as a unit. And experience is a big factor as well. They'll likely be starting some young players on the OL that will take time to mature and will likely take some lumps this season.

UM did get some talent in the the Portal, particularly numbers at DB and WR, but many of those players were from small schools and we know that's a crap shoot (see Cephus.....). They did get Barham from MD at LB but only 1 olineman.

I'm hoping to watch some of their top games this Fall to see them take a few thumpings!!!

 

[The Spin Meister]

As I read down through this thread that was my opinion as well. No team this side of OSU or possibly Bama can lose over half their starters most of which went to the NFL and come back as a top 5 program. And ranking their positions, mostly decimated by graduation, that high is unrealistic. Experience is a big factor in performance for college players even in the current era of game ready freshmen. And although UM has recruited well, mostly on a par with PSU, they don't have a roster full of 5 star players like OSU and Bama has. I'll be very surprised if UM finishes this season in the top 10 and I look for some negative surprises in the post season evaluations of their position groups.

For example, UM lost their top 6 olinemen. An Oline's level of play is about talent and playing as a unit. And experience is a big factor as well. They'll likely be starting some young players on the OL that will take time to mature and will likely take some lumps this season.

UM did get some talent in the the Portal, particularly numbers at DB and WR, but many of those players were from small schools and we know that's a crap shoot (see Cephus.....). They did get Barham from MD at LB but only 1 olineman.

I'm hoping to watch some of their top games this Fall to see them take a few thumpings!!!

Agree with you but I remember just one year ago we were all saying how Mich would be down because four o linemen left.

They hit the portal hard plus plugged in top recruits and won a natty🤷🏿‍♂️

 

[GregInPitt]

Agree with you but I remember just one year ago we were all saying how Mich would be down because four o linemen left.

They hit the portal hard plus plugged in top recruits and won a natty🤷🏿‍♂️

Going into 2023 UM got 3 top oline transfers, all rated 0.9000 or above 4-stars by 247. That's 3 to cover the 4 you say they lost after 2022.

After 2023 they lost their top 6. They got 1 in the portal, an interior 3-star from Northwestern.

Quite a difference ....

 

[voltz99]

I don't know if I'd call that Franklin's best coaching job. It was a game that turned on one play but that could be said of the several close losses.

OSU has had better recruiting classes but a PSU team that only has a 30% chance to win those games should still be able to win 3 out of 10. They just have to make that one big play in close games but PSU has failed to do that under Franklin. My observation is that Franklin's shorts get tight in those situations and if he lacks confidence and plays scared his players follow suit. JMO.

Should psu lose 3 out of ten to the teams behind them? Your logic

 

[sdwcpa]

Okay how about if you be the one to tell me what strategical “mistake” Franklin made when PSU lost to Michigan a couple of years when a TE took a simple crossing pattern thrown 5 yards for a long TD late in the game since no one else ever has. But maybe you have some inside information about Franklin’s shorts during games. Geez.

Don’t forget about the awesome moving Pic that the umpire provided to the Michigan TE to spring him for the TD.

 

[bdgan]

Should psu lose 3 out of ten to the teams behind them? Your logic

Yes and no. The talent gap between teams like PSU and NW/Indy/Rut is greater than the talent gap between PSU & OSU. PSU should win 9 out of 10 vs those teams. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see PSU to lose 30%+ of their games vs teams like WISC/IA.

If you don't believe this why play the games?

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Yes and no. The talent gap between teams like PSU and NW/Indy/Rut is greater than the talent gap between PSU & OSU. PSU should win 9 out of 10 vs those teams. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see PSU to lose 30%+ of their games vs teams like WISC/IA.

If you don't believe this why play the games?

Wrong. The talent gap between Ohio St and PSU is at least as large or larger. Ohio St has had more 5 stars than the entire conference for well over a decade. True, they haven't won a national championship with Alabama/Georgia talent. But the talent gap is that large.

 

[bdgan]

Wrong. The talent gap between Ohio St and PSU is at least as large or larger. Ohio St has had more 5 stars than the entire conference for well over a decade. True, they haven't won a national championship with Alabama/Georgia talent. But the talent gap is that large.

I just looked and the composite recruiting averages for the past 3 years.

OSU 93.4
PSU 90.9 (-2.5 vs OSU)

PSU 90.9
RUT 86.6 (-4.3 vs PSU)
IND 86.6 (-4.3 vs PSU)
NW 86.1 (-4.8 vs PSU)

If we're talking about a 4th ranked OSU vs a 12th ranked PSU vs a 20th ranked Iowa you have a point. But teams like RUT, IND, & NW are seldom in the top 25.

 

[voltz99]

I just looked and the composite recruiting averages for the past 3 years.

OSU 93.4
PSU 90.9 (-2.5 vs OSU)

PSU 90.9
RUT 86.6 (-4.3 vs PSU)
IND 86.6 (-4.3 vs PSU)
NW 86.1 (-4.8 vs PSU)

If we're talking about a 4th ranked OSU vs a 12th ranked PSU vs a 20th ranked Iowa you have a point. But teams like RUT, IND, & NW are seldom in the top 25.

You left out 13 teams. Rutgers and NW are not exactly the gold standard.


Did you factor in transfers?


You expect PSU to win 30% of the games vs a team with higher talent. A spread of 2.5 not even factoring in transfers. When the spread is 4.3 does the percent of upsets go down to ZERO?

PS. Is PSU even in the top 10 in talent?

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I just looked and the composite recruiting averages for the past 3 years.

OSU 93.4
PSU 90.9 (-2.5 vs OSU)

PSU 90.9
RUT 86.6 (-4.3 vs PSU)
IND 86.6 (-4.3 vs PSU)
NW 86.1 (-4.8 vs PSU)

If we're talking about a 4th ranked OSU vs a 12th ranked PSU vs a 20th ranked Iowa you have a point. But teams like RUT, IND, & NW are seldom in the top 25.

2.5 verses 4.3 is not a major difference but 5-stars are difference makers. They change games. It more than makes up for a team having maybe a high 3-star guy here where another has a low 4. Further, it assumes that the recruiting services have equally distributed numerical values to skill levels. Do we know that a 93.4 to 90.9 difference is greater than a 90.9 to 86.6 other than pure math?

Do we know that the skill level difference is equal to the point drop? It definitely isn't an exact science and there are thousands of players in the database. We as fans know 100X more about the top 100 players and I am guessing that they are more accurate than the bottom 1000 players where many missed or late bloomers or just didn't go to the recruiting services camps.

But we know a lot about the 5 stars. They are on everyone's wish list. They change games. They pan out at rates significantly higher. And we know that Ohio St has had more of them than the entire rest of the conference combined for well over a decade.