If by some bizarre reason we end up 10-2 then I think we are 11th. In that scenario let's look at it. For simplicity say Texas wins the SEC championship game. They are 2. OSU beats Oregon in the championship game. They are 1. BYU is 3 and give it to SMU at 4. Now we get to the 8 at larges. Oregon at 5. ND at 6 (assumes only 1 loss). Bama 7. Ole Miss 8. Georgia 9. Tennessee 10. PSU 11. Boise at 12. Indiana out because of no quality wins and I think they lose to OSU by more than we did. All those SEC teams have better wins than us and will be ahead of us. The only question is if BYU goes into the B12 ccg undefeated then loses. Do they stay in at one loss? They could knock us out.
If we are 10-2, there could be:
Definitely in (7 teams - not listed according to ranking):
1. Oregon at 13-0.
2. OSU at 11-2 (loses CCG).
3. Alabama at 11-2 (wins CCG)
4. Big 12 Champ - random Big 12 2-loss team
5. ND at 11-1
6. Boise St. at 12-1
7. Big East Champ - let's say SMU at 12-1
Likely:
8. Indiana at 11-1.
9. BYU at 12-1 (loses CCG)
Possible:
10. Texas at 11-2 (loses CCG)
11. Georgia at 10-2
12. Ole Miss at 10-2
13. Tennessee at 10-2
14. PSU at 10-2
Here's the thing ... folks who don't like us this year complain about the resume ... folks who like us see the current record and the "eye test" and our only loss being to a top team in a competitive game ... but if we have a late season loss against a fairly weak team (Purdue, Minny, Maryland), the shine is gone completely. Our resume becomes awful, and we no longer have any real positives to point to in order to put us above, pretty much, any of those teams.
We'll fall rapidly. We're in a weird situation. It's not like we have solid wins and a hiccup wouldn't hurt us ... our whole reputation hangs on the fact that, while we haven't beaten anyone great, we haven't lost to anyone except a top squad.
So, in that scenario, Texas has 2 losses - one to Georgia and one to Alabama in the CCG ... no great wins either. Georgia has 2 losses to playoff contenders and wins against Texas and Clemson. Ole Miss has losses against LSU and Kentucky ... so they have a bad loss, but also a late season win against Georgia. Tennessee has losses against Georgia and Arkansas, so a bad loss, but also a win against Bama.
You can make a case for each of those teams to be picked over us.
And I know folks are downplaying Indiana and BYU ... in that scenario, Indiana's only loss is to the same team we lost to ... plus we have a bad loss on top of it. They lack a good win, like us, but have 1 less loss. BYU beat SMU ... maybe they get disrespected by the committee, and maybe they get pushed out, too ... I don't see it, but it could happen. But even then, we still have to jump one of the other "possibles," and I'm not seeing that happening.