CBS sports "doomsday scenario" that excludes PSU and Indiana from the playoffs

[NoBareFeet]

My analysis is as follows. There are the 5 automatic bids, 2 of which are going to the Big 10 and SEC Champions. Then, unless they lose again, give ND a spot, so that's six. Then I easily could see the remaining six spots being filled by 3 Big 10 and 3 SEC teams.

I agree with this. However, you are ignoring the possibility of that remaining six spots consisting of 4 SEC and 2 Big Ten teams.

Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M all have a case for the playoff. Hell, maybe even LSU if it wins out. A 2-loss PSU's case would be fairly weak since their best win would be against Washington? USC? Illinois? Wisconsin?

 

[NoBareFeet]

The Tennessee vs Georgia game is an elimination game.

Not sure why a 2-loss Tennessee would be out. They beat Alabama. A 2-loss Tennessee for damn sure should be in over a 2-loss PSU.

 

[LandoComando]

This article lists percentage chances for teams to make the playoffs.

Oregon 99%
OSU 58%
PSU 61%
Indy 88%

Interestingly they say PSU has a chance to play in the BiG championship if OSU loses to Michigan which is of course unlikely.

MSN

Those numbers are way too low. FPI has us at 83% now and the other 3 over 90. There's no way Ohio State or Penn State are under 80. It doesn't make any sense.

 

[NC2017]

Some jackass named "Tom Fornelli" whoever that is. This is why I detest the national media in general. https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...n-college-football-playoff-doomsday-scenario/

 

[LandoComando]

I agree with this. However, you are ignoring the possibility of that remaining six spots consisting of 4 SEC and 2 Big Ten teams.

Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M all have a case for the playoff. Hell, maybe even LSU if it wins out. A 2-loss PSU's case would be fairly weak since their best win would be against Washington? USC? Illinois? Wisconsin?

The Big Ten gets at least likely 4...only Indiana needs to worry. The Big Ten and SEC are getting at least 7 total bids...possibly if not probably 8....maybe 9 if ND drops a game

 

[doctornick]

I agree with this. However, you are ignoring the possibility of that remaining six spots consisting of 4 SEC and 2 Big Ten teams.

Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M all have a case for the playoff. Hell, maybe even LSU if it wins out. A 2-loss PSU's case would be fairly weak since their best win would be against Washington? USC? Illinois? Wisconsin?

10-2 PSU almost certainly goes in over 3 loss LSU - one of LSU's losses was to mediocre USC who PSU beat. LSU of all the SEC teams has the worst case head to head versus Big Ten teams.

 

[doctornick]

Not sure why a 2-loss Tennessee would be out. They beat Alabama. A 2-loss Tennessee for damn sure should be in over a 2-loss PSU.

Tennessee lost to a pretty average Arkansas team (you know, a team that lost to Oklahoma St who has yet to win a single Big 12 game this season).

That being said, I would tend to agree that a 2 loss Tennessee makes it in over a 2 loss PSU just because of the Alabama win.

 

[LandoComando]

Tennessee lost to a pretty average Arkansas team (you know, a team that lost to Oklahoma St who has yet to win a single Big 12 game this season).

That being said, I would tend to agree that a 2 loss Tennessee makes it in over a 2 loss PSU just because of the Alabama win.

The committee doesn't seem to be huge fans of Tennessee

 

[step.eng69]

The committee doesn't seem to be huge fans of Tennessee

Maybe Gregory Edward Schiano can offer some guidance concerning the Vols.

 

[bdgan]

The Big Ten gets at least likely 4...only Indiana needs to worry. The Big Ten and SEC are getting at least 7 total bids...possibly if not probably 8....maybe 9 if ND drops a game

You think 10-2 PSU gets in over an 11-1 Indiana? I don't think so.

 

[ryoder1]

Not sure why a 2-loss Tennessee would be out. They beat Alabama. A 2-loss Tennessee for damn sure should be in over a 2-loss PSU.

If they lose Saturday they will need help. They go to the back of the line for SEC playoff contenders and won't be in the top 12 next Tuesday. Georgia, Bama and Ole Miss will be ahead of them. They won't drop out Ole Miss to make room for Georgia they will drop out the team that just lost to Georgia. Ole Miss beat Georgia.

At that point they would need to win out and hope someone ahead of them loses. Bama, Ole Miss or Georgia losing their third game could get them back. So most likely one of them losing the CCG but not a guarantee because they would be penalizing a team who went to the CCG. ND losing gets them in for sure. I think Indiana losing to OSU in a rout gets them back in but a close game probably keeps Indiana in at 11 plus one less loss than Tennessee.

If we lose a second game then I do think Tenn goes in ahead of us.

All in all their path gets murky if they lose Saturday.

 

[LandoComando]

You think 10-2 PSU gets in over an 11-1 Indiana? I don't think so.

I do--their SOS is beyond awful. They haven't played anyone currently in the top 8 of the Big Ten and their non-conference schedule was worse than our's.

 

[bdgan]

I do--their SOS is beyond awful. They haven't played anyone currently in the top 8 of the Big Ten and their non-conference schedule was worse than our's.

True about Indy's schedule but 2 losses by PSU would outweigh that. I don't see any way that 10-2 PSU would go before 11-1 Indiana. The oddsmakers seem to agree. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

 

[LandoComando]

True about Indy's schedule but 2 losses by PSU would outweigh that. I don't see any way that 10-2 PSU would go before 11-1 Indiana. The oddsmakers seem to agree. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

Why are we ahead of them now?
I don't see the odds-makers agreeing at all--they're higher than us because they've played an extra game.
The committee clearly likes us--a lot--despite not having a quality win--not much will change that.

 

[rrdd2021]

You think 10-2 PSU gets in over an 11-1 Indiana? I don't think so.

Too many people are concentrating on the final record and discarding the SOS. Have you looked at Indiana's 103rd rated schedule before last week's game. Could be worse now. I'd take a 10-2 PSU over Indiana especially if Indiana gets rolled by OSU

 

[LandoComando]

Too many people are concentrating on the final record and discarding the SOS. Have you looked at Indiana's 103rd rated schedule before last week's game. Could be worse now. I'd take a 10-2 PSU over Indiana especially if Indiana gets rolled by OSU

Indiana is kind of in the same boat as BYU--a loss is very dangerous to their chances
Last night they said it climbed to 100 (their SOS)
Ohio State will help their schedule a bunch but then they have Purdue to kill it again lol

 

[ryoder1]

Why are we ahead of them now?
I don't see the odds-makers agreeing at all--they're higher than us because they've played an extra game.
The committee clearly likes us--a lot--despite not having a quality win--not much will change that.

We don't have a bad loss yet. If that comes versus Minny that will put us behind Indiana. Our only hope in that scenario is Indiana getting crushed by OSU otherwise we don't have a signature win big enough to offset two losses versus one. We may make it in because there may be a two loss SEC championship game loser with then 3 losses who falls out.

 

[ryoder1]

Too many people are concentrating on the final record and discarding the SOS. Have you looked at Indiana's 103rd rated schedule before last week's game. Could be worse now. I'd take a 10-2 PSU over Indiana especially if Indiana gets rolled by OSU

Only if they get rolled. Otherwise both teams played weak schedules and we have one more loss. Indiana goes in before us.

 

[LandoComando]

We don't have a bad loss yet. If that comes versus Minny that will put us behind Indiana. Our only hope in that scenario is Indiana getting crushed by OSU otherwise we don't have a signature win big enough to offset two losses versus one. We may make it in because there may be a two loss SEC championship game loser with then 3 losses who falls out.

It wouldn't
You realize not all Big Ten teams are considered the same, right? Penn State will always have an advantage over Indiana when it comes to voters
If they lose to Ohio State as long as we don't lose 3 games we'll be ahead of them.

 

[LandoComando]

Only if they get rolled. Otherwise both teams played weak schedules and we have one more loss. Indiana goes in before us.

Our SOS is in the high 20s--not 100

 

[ryoder1]

It wouldn't
You realize not all Big Ten teams are considered the same, right? Penn State will always have an advantage over Indiana when it comes to voters
If they lose to Ohio State as long as we don't lose 3 games we'll be ahead of them.

You need to look at the rankings today. Indiana is 5th. They lose in two weeks they could drop to 10th or 11th but not all the way out. The committee is giving them respect despite the weak schedule. As long as they play a reasonably competitive game vs OSU they are no worse than 11th. We would not be above them with two losses.

 

[LandoComando]

You need to look at the rankings today. Indiana is 5th. They lose in two weeks they could drop to 10th or 11th but not all the way out. The committee is giving them respect despite the weak schedule. As long as they play a reasonably competitive game vs OSU they are no worse than 11th. We would not be above them with two losses.

See Miami--they dropped to 9 but next week they'll slide further. Indiana will drop to 10 or 11 then they'll slide after Purdue hurts their SOS then they'll get another bump down after CCG week. If we lose to Minnesota the same week they lose to Indiana we'll be 2 spots ahead of them. Maybe more depending on other results.
You may need to look at the rankings--we're 4 today which is higher than 5

 

[rrdd2021]

Our SOS is in the high 20s--not 100

This and it's a huge difference in the eyes of the committee

 

[wilbury]

Some jackass named "Tom Fornelli" whoever that is. This is why I detest the national media in general. https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...n-college-football-playoff-doomsday-scenario/

I'm going to write an article about how, if Oregon loses to Wisconsin and Washington, they are likely out.

 

[PurposePitch]

If by some bizarre reason we end up 10-2 then I think we are 11th. In that scenario let's look at it. For simplicity say Texas wins the SEC championship game. They are 2. OSU beats Oregon in the championship game. They are 1. BYU is 3 and give it to SMU at 4. Now we get to the 8 at larges. Oregon at 5. ND at 6 (assumes only 1 loss). Bama 7. Ole Miss 8. Georgia 9. Tennessee 10. PSU 11. Boise at 12. Indiana out because of no quality wins and I think they lose to OSU by more than we did. All those SEC teams have better wins than us and will be ahead of us. The only question is if BYU goes into the B12 ccg undefeated then loses. Do they stay in at one loss? They could knock us out.

If we are 10-2, there could be:

Definitely in (7 teams - not listed according to ranking):
1. Oregon at 13-0.
2. OSU at 11-2 (loses CCG).
3. Alabama at 11-2 (wins CCG)
4. Big 12 Champ - random Big 12 2-loss team
5. ND at 11-1
6. Boise St. at 12-1
7. Big East Champ - let's say SMU at 12-1

Likely:
8. Indiana at 11-1.
9. BYU at 12-1 (loses CCG)

Possible:
10. Texas at 11-2 (loses CCG)
11. Georgia at 10-2
12. Ole Miss at 10-2
13. Tennessee at 10-2
14. PSU at 10-2

Here's the thing ... folks who don't like us this year complain about the resume ... folks who like us see the current record and the "eye test" and our only loss being to a top team in a competitive game ... but if we have a late season loss against a fairly weak team (Purdue, Minny, Maryland), the shine is gone completely. Our resume becomes awful, and we no longer have any real positives to point to in order to put us above, pretty much, any of those teams.

We'll fall rapidly. We're in a weird situation. It's not like we have solid wins and a hiccup wouldn't hurt us ... our whole reputation hangs on the fact that, while we haven't beaten anyone great, we haven't lost to anyone except a top squad.

So, in that scenario, Texas has 2 losses - one to Georgia and one to Alabama in the CCG ... no great wins either. Georgia has 2 losses to playoff contenders and wins against Texas and Clemson. Ole Miss has losses against LSU and Kentucky ... so they have a bad loss, but also a late season win against Georgia. Tennessee has losses against Georgia and Arkansas, so a bad loss, but also a win against Bama.

You can make a case for each of those teams to be picked over us.

And I know folks are downplaying Indiana and BYU ... in that scenario, Indiana's only loss is to the same team we lost to ... plus we have a bad loss on top of it. They lack a good win, like us, but have 1 less loss. BYU beat SMU ... maybe they get disrespected by the committee, and maybe they get pushed out, too ... I don't see it, but it could happen. But even then, we still have to jump one of the other "possibles," and I'm not seeing that happening.

 

[jayhawks65]

I don’t need to read it. Our seeding range is 6-11 with one loss. A second loss means to Maryland, Purdue or Minnesota. Balance that ugly late season loss against our best win being Washington and seeding even at 11 is in question. Even Indiana would be ahead with one loss to OSU and a lousy strength of schedule.

I’m not suggesting we will lose to Minnesota. Don’t know why we would. But if it happened our participation would be very much in doubt and certainly not hosting a game.

Lose one of those games and they don't deserve to make the playoffs.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Yeah, you're probably 95% right. Four B1G teams are just about a lock if Indiana beat OSU and don't be all that shocked if a 3-loss team - Georgia or Alabama - gets in over 1 or 2 loss teams form lesser conferences. SOS is going to be huge and you'll hear fans that aren't from the B1G and SEC screaming bloody murder

I don’t see any way that a 3-loss team makes the playoff this season.

 

[ryoder1]

See Miami--they dropped to 9 but next week they'll slide further. Indiana will drop to 10 or 11 then they'll slide after Purdue hurts their SOS then they'll get another bump down after CCG week. If we lose to Minnesota the same week they lose to Indiana we'll be 2 spots ahead of them. Maybe more depending on other results.
You may need to look at the rankings--we're 4 today which is higher than 5

Indiana is not going to keep on dropping. They will have one good loss. That is not enough to drop them completely out. None of the teams in the CCG will affect their seeding. Who would? Bama will be ahead of them if they play Texas so no change after that game. Same with Oregon and OSU.

If we lose on 11/23 then we drop from a #6 seed to behind all the 2 loss SEC teams who have a signature win that we don't have. That is Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tenn ND also moves ahead of us.. That puts us at 11.

Now you need to factor in Indiana. They would have had a close loss to OSU or even reasonably close. They will obviously drop from their 7 seed to probably 11 but possibly 10. Nevertheless, they bump us to probably 12. They are in and we are out.

 

[mgkpsu]

Indiana is not going to keep on dropping. They will have one good loss. That is not enough to drop them completely out. None of the teams in the CCG will affect their seeding. Who would? Bama will be ahead of them if they play Texas so no change after that game. Same with Oregon and OSU.

If we lose on 11/23 then we drop from a #6 seed to behind all the 2 loss SEC teams who have a signature win that we don't have. That is Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tenn ND also moves ahead of us.. That puts us at 11.

Now you need to factor in Indiana. They would have had a close loss to OSU or even reasonably close. They will obviously drop from their 7 seed to probably 11 but possibly 10. Nevertheless, they bump us to probably 12. They are in and we are out.

Indiana is going to lose by 20+ points, and then they won't be playing in the Conference Championship Game. Book it!

It's amazing how you can't see that, yet are simultaneously part of the club on here practically predicting that we will somehow lose another. Is this mental masturbation seriously enjoyable to some of you?

 

[ryoder1]

Indiana is going to lose by 20+ points, and then they won't be playing in the Conference Championship Game. Book it!

It's amazing how you can't see that, yet are simultaneously part of the club on here practically predicting that we will somehow lose another. Is this mental masturbation seriously enjoyable to some of you?

I am saying if we lose again and Indiana has a respectable loss to OSU they will be seeded higher than us and we probably are out of the playoff, if there are no SEC upsets giving one of the current 2 loss teams in the top 12 a third loss or ND doesn't pick up a 2nd loss. I don't think we lose again, though.

 

[joeaubie21]

Why waste the time reading this shit?

Fornelli is an asshole.

 

[LandoComando]

Indiana is not going to keep on dropping. They will have one good loss. That is not enough to drop them completely out. None of the teams in the CCG will affect their seeding. Who would? Bama will be ahead of them if they play Texas so no change after that game. Same with Oregon and OSU.

If we lose on 11/23 then we drop from a #6 seed to behind all the 2 loss SEC teams who have a signature win that we don't have. That is Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tenn ND also moves ahead of us.. That puts us at 11.

Now you need to factor in Indiana. They would have had a close loss to OSU or even reasonably close. They will obviously drop from their 7 seed to probably 11 but possibly 10. Nevertheless, they bump us to probably 12. They are in and we are out.

CCG will impact seeding and their seeding. They'll move other teams around. For example, if Texas wins the SEC that helps Georgia.
We won't be behind "all the SEC teams"...just like we aren't behind Tennessee now. The committee likes Penn State more than the SEC which is why Finebaum and others are mad
Indiana with a loss has no chance NONE to be ahead of us with two.

 

[ryoder1]

CCG will impact seeding and their seeding. They'll move other teams around. For example, if Texas wins the SEC that helps Georgia.
We won't be behind "all the SEC teams"...just like we aren't behind Tennessee now. The committee likes Penn State more than the SEC which is why Finebaum and others are mad
Indiana with a loss has no chance NONE to be ahead of us with two.

Penn State's strength of schedule is what ultimately dooms us if we get a second loss. All the SEC teams will go ahead of us because they all have a signature win. Indiana has one less loss.

Let's do a scenario:

Going into the 11/23 weekend your playoff seedings can be...

1) Oregon
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Miami
5) Ohio State
6) Penn State
7) Indiana
8) ND
9) Alabama
10) Ole Miss
11) Georgia
12) Tennessee (but Boise State takes the spot)

This assumes Tennessee loses to Georgia and no other upsets this weekend.

On 11/23 Penn State loses to Minny and Indiana loses by 14 points to OSU. No other upsets.

New CFP seedings:

1) Oregon
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Miami
5) Ohio State
6) ND
7) Alabama
8) Ole Miss
9) Georgia
10) Tennessee
11) Indiana
12) Penn State (but Boise State takes the spot)

No changes after 11/30 as all top 12 teams win.

ccg

Alabama beats Texas
OSU beats Oregon
BYU beats Colorado
SMU beats Miami

Final CFP seeds:

1) OSU
2) Alabama
3) BYU
4) SMU
5) Oregon
6) Notre Dame
7) Texas
8) Ole Miss
9) Georgia
10) Tennessee
11) Indiana
12) Boise State

I am not sure how they sort through all the two loss SEC teams but I am confident we fall behind all of them. Indiana with only one loss has to be ahead of us. The only way they are not is if they get crushed by more than about 20 pts versus OSU.

The key thing to consider in all of this is our resume is hanging together because we only have one loss to an excellent team and by only 7 points. As soon as you tack on that second loss to a mediocre team we drop like a rock. You say the committee has Tennessee below us now. Yes, because they have a loss to Arkansas and their win vs Bama is not enough to pass us because their loss is worse than ours. However, you put a loss to Minny on our resume now we have a bad loss like Tennessee. We have a good loss to OSU but so does Tennessee at Georgia, assuming a pretty close game. So the difference in resumes comes down to strength of schedule and signature wins. Tennessee will have beaten Alabama who is a top 12 team. We have nothing that can compare.

Now let's look at Indiana. They have one less loss and played OSU competitively. No bad losses.

They will have beaten.....Nebraska, Washington and Michigan.

We will have 2 losses including one bad one to Minny.

We have a better schedule but not significantly more to make up for the fact that we have a second loss and a bad one.

We will have beaten....Illinois, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, WVU

Our wins are just not strong enough. None of those teams will be ranked. Only Illinois may only have 3 losses.

 

[LandoComando]

Penn State's strength of schedule is what ultimately dooms us if we get a second loss. All the SEC teams will go ahead of us because they all have a signature win. Indiana has one less loss.

Let's do a scenario:

Going into the 11/23 weekend your playoff seedings can be...

1) Oregon
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Miami
5) Ohio State
6) Penn State
7) Indiana
8) ND
9) Alabama
10) Ole Miss
11) Georgia
12) Tennessee (but Boise State takes the spot)

This assumes Tennessee loses to Georgia and no other upsets this weekend.

On 11/23 Penn State loses to Minny and Indiana loses by 14 points to OSU. No other upsets.

New CFP seedings:

1) Oregon
2) Texas
3) BYU
4) Miami
5) Ohio State
6) ND
7) Alabama
8) Ole Miss
9) Georgia
10) Tennessee
11) Indiana
12) Penn State (but Boise State takes the spot)

No changes after 11/30 as all top 12 teams win.

ccg

Alabama beats Texas
OSU beats Oregon
BYU beats Colorado
SMU beats Miami

Final CFP seeds:

1) OSU
2) Alabama
3) BYU
4) SMU
5) Oregon
6) Notre Dame
7) Texas
8) Ole Miss
9) Georgia
10) Tennessee
11) Indiana
12) Boise State

I am not sure how they sort through all the two loss SEC teams but I am confident we fall behind all of them. Indiana with only one loss has to be ahead of us. The only way they are not is if they get crushed by more than about 20 pts versus OSU.

The key thing to consider in all of this is our resume is hanging together because we only have one loss to an excellent team and by only 7 points. As soon as you tack on that second loss to a mediocre team we drop like a rock. You say the committee has Tennessee below us now. Yes, because they have a loss to Arkansas and their win vs Bama is not enough to pass us because their loss is worse than ours. However, you put a loss to Minny on our resume now we have a bad loss like Tennessee. We have a good loss to OSU but so does Tennessee at Georgia, assuming a pretty close game. So the difference in resumes comes down to strength of schedule and signature wins. Tennessee will have beaten Alabama who is a top 12 team. We have nothing that can compare.

Now let's look at Indiana. They have one less loss and played OSU competitively. No bad losses.

They will have beaten.....Nebraska, Washington and Michigan.

We will have 2 losses including one bad one to Minny.

We have a better schedule but not significantly more to make up for the fact that we have a second loss and a bad one.

We will have beaten....Illinois, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, WVU

Our wins are just not strong enough. None of those teams will be ranked. Only Illinois may only have 3 losses.

We're easily ahead of Indiana and Tennessee--you have ND too high--way too high
We're comfortably in--we might be 8 hosting ND in this scenario.

 

[bdgan]

The committee clearly likes us--a lot--despite not having a quality win--not much will change that.

A second loss would likely change that

 

[LandoComando]

A second loss would likely change that

I don't think it would. I think the committee absolutely loves Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State

 

[ryoder1]

I don't think it would. I think the committee absolutely loves Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State

Not after a second loss to a mediocre team. Why would they?

 

[LandoComando]

Not after a second loss to a mediocre team. Why would they?

Why wouldn't they? They like us because of Allar,the run game, Warren and a top defense. Us losing in say Minnesota doesn't alter that.

 

[ryoder1]

We're easily ahead of Indiana and Tennessee--you have ND too high--way too high
We're comfortably in--we might be 8 hosting ND in this scenario.

LOL. Heck with your logic we could lose a third game and be in at 11. You have not made one point to factually substantiate how we would still be ahead of half the two loss SEC teams and one loss Indiana and one loss ND after having a bad loss to Minny. At that point we would have been exposed and there is nothing saving us. You just say the committee loves us. Well, they won't after that loss. Cheer up, you can make travel arrangements to one of those meaningless bowl games that PSU would play in and that you so enjoy. You could get cheap tickets, so you got that going for you, which is nice.

 

[LandoComando]

LOL. Heck with your logic we could lose a third game and be in at 11. You have not made one point to factually substantiate how we would still be ahead of half the two loss SEC teams and one loss Indiana and one loss ND after having a bad loss to Minny. At that point we would have been exposed and there is nothing saving us. You just say the committee loves us. Well, they won't after that loss. Cheer up, you can make travel arrangements to one of those meaningless bowl games that PSU would play in and that you so enjoy. You could get cheap tickets, so you got that going for you, which is nice.

We would be...yes...and they are all alive with 3 losses.
ND's loss to NIU with Texas beating A&M in your scenario kills ND. we're currently ahead of Indiana with 1 more loss and would remain so due to their SOS. Not sure how I have said that
I really think you and others just aren't understanding how this 12 team playoff will work. We're 4 and we have people that truly believe 1 loss knocks us out with a SOS in the high 20s. It's delusional. Hopefully we don't find out but if we lose lots of people are going to be confused.