cbs sports "experts" don't appear to be big fans of Penn State...

[pandaczar12]

key to this game is PSU shutting down Iowa's running game. We will score points but can they keep up with us? Iowa will run a ball control, grind-it-out offense to keep our offense off the field. They will probably win the TOP. If we keep them under 28, we win.

According to the lair, TOP is more important than points.

 

[PSU_l]

Yeah, my one worry is the LBs shedding blocks and making tackles but, it's not like Iowa is tearing it up running the ball. They played as weak a non conference as we did and they are only averaging 3.8 ypc. I think pitt has a better running game than Iowa. If we get out in front of Iowa like we should have been against pitt, it will limit their opportunities to eat clock with a running attack. Pitt stuck with the running attack to shorten the game and keep from getting blown out. They had no real intention of winning.

Yea, people make broad unsupported generalizations that are not born out by a real analysis of the numbers. As you say, the notion that Iowa has this incredible running game is a joke - Iowa is averaging 180 rushing yards per game on an average of 47 Rushing Attempts per game (only 3.8 ypc as you pointed out). That 3.8 ypc stat is 3rd worst in the B1G only better than Indiana's 1.9 ypc and Ill-noise's 3.5 ypc. OTOH, people want to claim that PSU's Rushing Attack has been awful when PSU has the 2nd best Yards-Per-Rushing-Attempt in the Conference at 6.8 ypc? PSU averages 187 rushing yards per game on only 27 rushing attempts per game, but according to the football mensa loudmouth's, Iowa has a better Offense and Rushing Attack because Iowa is near the top of the league in TOP (3rd best at 35:35 per game) and PSU is dead last in this statistic at 24:07??? TOP is a meaningless stat when it does not include any kind of "Possession Efficiency" analysis, because the higher your efficiency rating in converting possessions into points, especially if you are among the leaders in the league of average yards per play (YPP) and TDs, which PSU is (1st in TDs scored 18 and 2nd in YPP at 8.3 yards) because it is a tautology that your opponent will also have lots of possessions in these games as you have to kick the ball off after scoring! (PSU is leading the league in Scoring Defense, 4.7 ppg, and is near the top in Total Defense per play giving up only 3.6 YPP on defense, which is 3rd best in the conference behind scUM and MSU which are both at 3.4 YPP surrendered on defense).

How anyone can look at those numbers and come to the conclusion that Iowa has an advantage running the ball or stopping the run is rather baffling - Iowa surrenders 4.0 yards per rush and 5.3 YPP, but have not faced a team even remotely close to PSU in terms of "firepower" on offense.....PSU is at the top of the league in average yards per rush (6.8 ypc), average YPP (8.3 yards) and leads the league in TDs Scored (18) and is 2nd in PPG (47)???

Iowa's run defense is solid, but their Pass Defense is susceptible (probably due to the amount of man coverage they play in bringing assets up to load the box to stop the run) - Iowa has surrendered 5 TD Passes, which is 2nd worst in the league, only UNL's 6 is worse. Iowa surrenders 11 yards per completion - the only team which is demonstrably worse is Rutgers which surrenders nearly 14 yards per completion (again, Iowa's Defense has given up more TD Passes than all teams but UNL).

Meanwhile, hidden statistics that speak volumes about "matchups" such as PSU being at the very top of the league in "Sacks Given Up" having surrendered only 2 so far OR Iowa being bottom-half in generating sacks....are ignored

PSU leading the league in TO Ratio at +9 and conversely Iowa being -1 through 3 games is an interesting stat that could very well be a big factor in this game.

 

[brupsu]

I think it comes down to our D. If we don't stop them from getting first downs and let them drive like Pitt did, they're good enough to put the ball in the end zone. With them eating clock and keeping our O off the field, they could not only stay in the game but win. I think we can score enough to win the game, but we have to be tighter on D than we were against Pitt.

Pitts offensive line was pretty large and about equal to Iowa maybe better.Iowa qb looks good so far but has he faced any real pressure?looking at both teams Where does Iowa have an advantage?Man to man unit to unit don't see one.Emotion maybe being the home team but with a young qb that may work against them.Great respect for Iowa and their coach but match ups favor Psu.Iowa knew what was coming before fullback dive,tailback for two yards and facing third and seven incomplete sideline pass and punt.Psu offense uses entire field and with a guy like TM running the show the plays will be there.