COVID Point of No Return

[psu_et_vt]

I'm with you unless the REAL plan for lockdown is to try to house-arrest everybody in America for 12 months or 18 months until vaccines are (hopefully) available.

You flatten the curve that much you might reduce coronavirus deaths by half a million at a cost of 2-5 million deaths from other diseases, plus malnutrition, murder, suicide and a general total breakdown of health care -- let alone the total collapse of western capitalism.

If lockdown lasts 4-8 weeks it's a big hit to people's retirement portfolios and maybe only 20 or 30 million people permanently lose their jobs and their businesses. Maybe only 1 million kids can no longer go to college because their parents no longer have the means to send them. Maybe only 1 million people no longer have the ability to retire at 65. That is not a small cost but I suppose the country is willing to pay it. 8 weeks of lockdown we may well have another Great Depression. The country did survive the Great Depression but there was a lot of pain.

But if lockdown lasts 52 weeks and the world financial system basically dies, and 120 million people permanently lose their jobs --- you have to consider the cost of that and weigh the end of western civilization against the reduced coronavirus deaths. .

I'm obviously no fan of Trump but in this case he is asking a question that needs to be asked. What is the cost-benefit analysis on long-term lockdown? How long is lockdown really sustainable?

And, looking at what's happening in Italy, is lockdown really working anyway? And don't just trot out the "lawless Italian" stereotype. There is absolutely no evidence lockdown will work any better in the US than it has worked in Italy, because it is forcing families to be together 24 hours a day in close quarters -- and home is where the virus is most commonly transmitted.

The public health officials are all about their randomized controlled studies and I respect that.

But lockdown is basically a seat of the pants policy; not a single study has been done that shows mass lockdowns of this type would work against a virus of this type. It's a desperation move, everybody understands the desperation, and it seems to make sense in the short run but it has NOT been tested. And it certainly has never been tested on a worldwide long-term basis.

Let's hope that lockdown works in 4 weeks. If it doesn't, let's hope there is a cold assessment of whether lockdown has any chance to achieve what people hope will achieve, and if it doesn't work, let's try something else (like focusing resources on isolating elderly and high-risk populations. If something doesn't work, try something else.

You counter data that has been produced by a scientifically based model with a bunch of speculative nonsense.

 

[Secret Asian Man]

I'm with you unless the REAL plan for lockdown is to try to house-arrest everybody in America for 12 months or 18 months until vaccines are (hopefully) available.

You flatten the curve that much you might reduce coronavirus deaths by half a million at a cost of 2-5 million deaths from other diseases, plus malnutrition, murder, suicide and a general total breakdown of health care -- let alone the total collapse of western capitalism.

If lockdown lasts 4-8 weeks it's a big hit to people's retirement portfolios and maybe only 20 or 30 million people permanently lose their jobs and their businesses. Maybe only 1 million kids can no longer go to college because their parents no longer have the means to send them. Maybe only 1 million people no longer have the ability to retire at 65. That is not a small cost but I suppose the country is willing to pay it. 8 weeks of lockdown we may well have another Great Depression. The country did survive the Great Depression but there was a lot of pain.

But if lockdown lasts 52 weeks and the world financial system basically dies, and 120 million people permanently lose their jobs --- you have to consider the cost of that and weigh the end of western civilization against the reduced coronavirus deaths. .

I'm obviously no fan of Trump but in this case he is asking a question that needs to be asked. What is the cost-benefit analysis on long-term lockdown? How long is lockdown really sustainable?

And, looking at what's happening in Italy, is lockdown really working anyway? And don't just trot out the "lawless Italian" stereotype. There is absolutely no evidence lockdown will work any better in the US than it has worked in Italy, because it is forcing families to be together 24 hours a day in close quarters -- and home is where the virus is most commonly transmitted.

The public health officials are all about their randomized controlled studies and I respect that.

But lockdown is basically a seat of the pants policy; not a single study has been done that shows mass lockdowns of this type would work against a virus of this type. It's a desperation move, everybody understands the desperation, and it seems to make sense in the short run but it has NOT been tested. And it certainly has never been tested on a worldwide long-term basis.

Let's hope that lockdown works in 4 weeks. If it doesn't, let's hope there is a cold assessment of whether lockdown has any chance to achieve what people hope will achieve, and if it doesn't work, let's try something else (like focusing resources on isolating elderly and high-risk populations. If something doesn't work, try something else.

reading the Fauci interview, it strikes me that there are probably some major arguments as science and finance take their positions and fight this out. A scientist, like Fauci, will argue to use the numbers to save lives no matter how much deeper we move toward financial despair. The economists are saying "so we a bunch of old people die, you can't kill the rest of us in terms of ruining out financial lives". There is a balance there. The administration has been counting down the 15 days...while the gov have stated that it will go longer. for example PA, OH and NY are all talking about April 6th or thereabouts. Obviously, the lock down won't be binary but a gradual lessening of the constraints.

 

[jabba2]

I'm not assuming the lock down will go on for a year. If so we were lied to in a big way. BTW...the Italians have all been pleading with us to use them as an example...they ignore the lockdowns. Much like the spring breakers and idiots still gathering in groups are.

Agree, this is going to hit hard anywhere were lockdowns are not enforced. Which means its probably going to stay for good. Too many people just dont care. Right now is probably a walk in the park compared to a few months from now. Hope im wrong and the hot weather starts to drastically slow transmissions. But we still have 3 months until much of the US starts to get hot weather.

 

[Ranger Dan]

If half the country gets it, then all this lockdown and social distancing stuff will have been a complete joke.

It’s all relative... if half the country gets it but over a longer period of time, then our health system can handle them, but if a smaller percentage gets it at the same time then we are in deep shit.

 

[jabba2]

It’s all relative... if half the country gets it but over a longer period of time, then our health system can handle them, but if a smaller percentage gets it at the same time then we are in deep shit.

It spreads like wildfire though, so im not sure how to mitigate the spread other than closing businesses, advising people to stay home. Which Trump is saying is not economically possible.

 

[jim cummings]

Agree, this is going to hit hard anywhere were lockdowns are not enforced. Which means its probably going to stay for good. Too many people just dont care. Right now is probably a walk in the park compared to a few months from now. Hope im wrong and the hot weather starts to drastically slow transmissions. But we still have 3 months until much of the US starts to get hot weather.

If you’re slamming booze, doing good coke (Miami) and banging several girls a day there isn’t going to be much you can do to stop that animal unless it’s by force.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

It’s all relative... if half the country gets it but over a longer period of time, then our health system can handle them, but if a smaller percentage gets it at the same time then we are in deep shit.

There is something to be said for younger and/or healthier people who want to risk it going in and being exposed as soon as possible then quarantining themselves for a month or so, provided they’re willing to lock themselves up for as long as it takes and truly handle it on their own and not show up at hospitals or anywhere in public or ask others to help them. But... too many of these young, healthy fearless people won’t follow through.

 

[Secret Asian Man]

It spreads like wildfire though, so im not sure how to mitigate the spread other than closing businesses, advising people to stay home. Which Trump is saying is not economically possible.

..and that is exactly what we are doing. The idea is to use social distancing, not as a deterrent, but a way to buy time. If we can slow down the spread we have more beds, masks, gowns, respirators, etc. to utilize. There are reports that, in parts of Italy, they are no longer treating people over 60 because they just don't have the resources.

 

[psu_et_vt]

..and that is exactly what we are doing. The idea is to use social distancing, not as a deterrent, but a way to buy time. If we can slow down the spread we have more beds, masks, gowns, respirators, etc. to utilize. There are reports that, in parts of Italy, they are no longer treating people over 60 because they just don't have the resources.
According to DeBlasio they will be making decisions like this in NY this week.

According to DeBlasio they will be making decisions like that in NY this week

 

[bplionfan]

https://www.creative-diagnostics.com/sars-cov-2-coronavirus-multiplex-rt-qpcr-kit-277854-457.htm
SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Multiplex RT-qPCR Kit (CD019RT)
Regulatory status: For research use only, not for use in diagnostic procedures.

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• Summary
• Documentation

Specificity
non-specific interference of Influenza A Virus (H1N1), Influenza B Virus (Yamagata), Respiratory Syncytial Virus (type B),
Respiratory Adenovirus (type 3, type 7), Parainfluenza Virus (type 2), Mycoplasma Pneumoniae, Chlamydia Pneumoniae, etc.
Species Reactivity
Human
Application
Qualitative
Size
100T
Storage
All reagents should be stored at -30°C~-15°C with protection from light.
The reagents are stable for 12 months when stored at the recommended condition.
The expiration date will not change if the kit is opened and stored at the recommended condition.
The expiration date will not change if the kit is transported with ice-packs for 4 days and/or treated with 10 freeze-thaw cycles.
Intended Use
This product is intended for the detection of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The detection result of this product is only for clinical reference, and it should not be used as the only evidence for clinical diagnosis and treatment.
Principles of Testing
This product is a dual-color multiplex fluorescent probe-based Taqman® RT-qPCR assay system. The Taqman fluorescent probe is a specific oligonucleotide based on a reporter-quencher mechanism. For each probe, the 5'-end is labeled with a fluorophore, while the 3'-end was labeled with a quencher. When the probe is intact, the fluorescence emitted by the fluorophore is absorbed by the quencher, and no fluorescent signal is detected. However, during amplification of the template, the probe will be degraded due to the 5'-3' exonuclease activity of Taq DNA polymerase, and the fluorescent reporter and the quencher are cleaved and separated, then a fluorescent signal can be detected. The generation of each molecular amplicon is accompanied by the generation of a fluorescent signal. Real-time monitoring of the entire PCR process can be assessed by monitoring the accumulation of fluorescent signals.
This product provides dual-detections of two independent genes of 2019-nCoV in a single tube. Specific primers and probes were designed for the detection of conserved region of 2019-nCoV's ORF1ab gene and N gene, respectively, avoiding non-specific interference of SARS2003 and BatSARS-like virus strains.
Detection Limit
500 copies /mL.
Reagents And Materials Provided
1. Detection Buffer (900 μL × 2 tubes), including Buffer, dNTPs, Primers, Probes.
2. Enzyme Mix (200 μL × 1 tube), including RNase Inhibitor, UDG, Reverse Transcriptase, Taq DNA polymerase.
3. Positive Control (200 μL × 1 tube), plasmid containing target fragment.
4. Negative Control (500 μL × 1 tube), DEPC-Treated Water.
Note: Do not mix the components from different batches for detection.
Materials Required But Not Supplied
Real-time PCR instrument with both FAM and TEXAS RED channels,
such as ABI7500, ABI Q3, ABI Q6, Roche LightCycler480, Bio-Rad CFX96.
Specimen Collection And Preparation
1. Suitable specimen type: upper respiratory specimen (including nasal swabs, nasopharyngeal swabs / aspirates / washes, and sputum) and lower respiratory specimen (including respiratory aspirates, bronchial washes, bronchoalveolar lavage fluids, and lung biopsy specimens).
2. For detailed methods of specimen collection, please refer to the protocol in the "Microbiology Specimen Collection Manual".
3. The collected specimen should be used for detection within the same day. Otherwise, please store the specimen as follows:
Store at 2°C - 8°C for no more than 24 hours;
Store at < -20°C for no more than 10 days;
Store at < -70°C for long-term, avoiding repeated freeze-thaw cycles.
4. The specimen should be transported using sealed foam box with dry ice.
Specimen Preparation
The samples should be extracted according to the corresponding requirements and procedures of viral RNA extraction kits. The extracted RNA can be directly used for detection. If the extracted RNA is not used for detection immediately, please store the RNA at below -70°C, avoiding repeated freeze-thaw.
Reagent Preparation
Thaw the required reagents, mix by shaking, and centrifuge briefly before use. Prepare the mixture in a RNase-free centrifuge tube as follows:

Note: It is recommended to set both negative and positive controls for each test.
Mix the above mixture thoroughly, and make aliquots of 20 μL into different PCR reaction tubes. Then, move to the Specimen Preparation Area.
Assay Procedure
1. Template Addition (Specimen Preparation Area)
Add 5 μL of Negative Control (no extraction required), 5 μL of Positive Control (no extraction required), and 5 μL of extracted RNA from specimen to different PCR reaction tubes which contained 20 μL of PCR mix.
2. RT-PCR Amplification (Detection Area)
Put the reaction tubes on a PCR instrument, setup and run the following cycling protocol:

Settings of detection fluorescence: ORF1ab gene (FAM), N gene (TEXAS RED / ROX). Please set the internal reference parameter of fluorescence of the instrument to "None". For example: for ABI series instruments, please set "Passive Reference" to "None".
3. Data Analysis (refer to Instrument User Manual)
Take ABI7500 as an example: after the qPCR reaction, the results were saved automatically. According to the analyzed image, please
adjust the Start value, End value, and Threshold value of the Baseline (Start value: 3 ~ 15; End value: 5 ~ 20; Threshold value could be set in the Log window, and the threshold line should be in the exponential phase of the amplification curve; the amplification curve of the negative control should be straight or below the threshold line). Click "Analysis" to obtain the analysis result automatically, and read the detection result in the "Report" window.
Quality Control

The result is valid if ALL the above criteria is met. Otherwise, the result is invalid.
Interpretation Of Results
If the criteria of QUALITY CONTROL is met, analysis the data of sample as follows:
Precision
Using two cases of high and low positive quality products to test for 10 consecutive times, the CV of their Ct values is ≦5%.
Precautions
1. Please read this manual carefully before beginning the experiment, and strictly follow the instructions.
2. This product should be only used by trained labor personnel in safety protected laboratories and wear appropriate protective equipments.
3. This product should be protected from light. Please use sterile, DNasefree, and RNase-free tubes and tips during the detection.
4. The tested specimen of this product is regarded as infectious material. The operation and treatment should meet the requirements of the local regulations and laws.
Limitations
1. The detection result of this product is only for clinical reference, and it should not be used as the only evidence for clinical diagnosis and treatment. The clinical management of patients should be considered in combination with their symptoms/signs, history, other laboratory tests and treatment responses. The detection results should not be directly used as the evidence for clinical diagnosis, and are only for the reference of clinicians.
2. The detection result can be affected by operations, including specimen collection, storage and transportation. False negative result may occur if there is any mistakes in the operation. Cross contamination during specimen treatment may lead to false positive result.
3. The detected target sequences of this products are the conservative region of 2019-nCoV's ORF1ab gene and N gene. However, target sequence variations may lead to false negative result.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

On the one hand China has the threat of police and government action more so against it's citizens in forcibly enforcing a quarantine. But on the other hand much more of the population of China lives in cramped quarters. In the cities of China many live with 3 or 4 generations of their families in the square footage of our basements. I just have a hard time believing any of the statistics put out by the Chinese government.....

You should

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

According to DeBlasio they will be making decisions like that in NY this week

Which means it’ll be downright awful in a month.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

You should

Don’t believe the Chinese government on overall numbers. But you don’t have to in most cases.

FWIW, for certain info I’m more willing to trust testimonies of individual reputable physicians. Doesn’t help with numbers games but could help with understanding how things are playing out clinically.

 

[WestSideLion]

He said that the worldwide rate was at 2.5 to 3% but is coming down. Two factors are lack of testing and improved best practices. His thought was, without the emergence of a miracle drug, it would settle right around 1%. Later a different expert said 50% infection rate, not Fauci. But it was universally accepted. So if you accept those two figures as correct, we are looking down the barrel at 1,700,000.

Just to give perspective, the USA lost just under 500,000 in WW2.

It could be utterly staggering given historical context like what you shared.

 

[mrmk5110]

FWIW, the company which I work for produces industrial measurement devices (so considered an "essential" business)

We had a huge spike in demand for orders in China over the weekend, they are going gung-ho on starting up factories again. Either they really are recovering, or the government has had enough and pulled the restrictions anyway. Could see similar happening for us within the next month.

 

[N&B4PSU]

Makes sense.

The thing is, when you say that half the population could be infected and you apply the case fatality rate to that statistic, it's misleading.

How many Americans RIGHT NOW probably have COVID-19? It sure as hell isn't the 35,000 number we see. It's probably well over 100,000. Maybe even 350,000 -- 10x the confirmed number. Hard to say without widespread testing of both symptomatic and asymptomatic populations.

So, the true fatality rate is probably far less than 1%. And if 170 million Americans get it, applying the 1% rate to that figure produces an overestimation of how many will die.

Regardless, if half of Americans get it, we're looking at hundreds of thousands dead. Still catastrophic.

USA pop in 1942 (arbitrary year amid war) was 135M... today it is 331M. 500,000 then is about 1.2-1.3 M now. Kinda narrows the perspective.

Still tragic and, yes, catastrophic.

 

[wilbury]

Medical literature
(1) Zhuang et al., Potential false-positive rate among the ‚asymptomatic infected individuals‘ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients, Chinese Medical Association Publishing House, March 2020.

[Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients].
[Article in Chinese; Abstract available in Chinese from the publisher]
Zhuang GH1, Shen MW, Zeng LX, Mi BB, Chen FY, Liu WJ, Pei LL, Qi X, Li C.
Author information

Abstract
in English, Chinese
Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention. Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; Close contacts; False-positive; Nucleic acid test; Screening

I was listening to some doctors talking today about the issue with false positives. They think it's a big issue but no way to correct it until the tests and testing gets better. They actually question whether anyone not showing symptoms actually had the virus including all of these athletes who tested positive but showed no signs. They also believe that it's very difficult for anyone that is asymptomatic to transmit the disease.

Of course, listen to another doctor and you'll get another story.

 

[wilbury]

reading the Fauci interview, it strikes me that there are probably some major arguments as science and finance take their positions and fight this out. A scientist, like Fauci, will argue to use the numbers to save lives no matter how much deeper we move toward financial despair. The economists are saying "so we a bunch of old people die, you can't kill the rest of us in terms of ruining out financial lives". There is a balance there. The administration has been counting down the 15 days...while the gov have stated that it will go longer. for example PA, OH and NY are all talking about April 6th or thereabouts. Obviously, the lock down won't be binary but a gradual lessening of the constraints.

Then factor in suicide rate. What does social isolation, depression, job loss, financial crisis, etc. have on that?

 

[The Spin Meister]

There is an article on yahoo about how a Nobel laureate estimates that things will get better and fairly rapid. He bases his modeling on the rate of change in the number of deaths and the number of cases. As the rate of change goes down, the new cases flat lines and eventually goes down, as it did in China.

He also pointed out that we had an unintentional experiment where the virus was allowed to infect an entire population on the Diamond Princess. The conditions were close quarters and lasted from Feb 4 to Mar 1. Out of 3700 passengers, 717 tested positive for the virus, although 410 of those were asymptomatic. The death count was 8.

The demographics on board the Diamond were probably a lot different than in most country populations. Average age is probably higher. But, those numbers suggest an infection rate of roughly 20% and a death rate of 1.1% of those infected and 0.2% of the whole population.

https://news.yahoo.com/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html

That is what I have been saying here for two weeks. And cruise ships are like the perfect petri dishes for viruses and still the infection rate is fairly low. And every time I do I get excoriated. This just ain't that contagious.

 

[The Spin Meister]

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Published: March 14, 2020; Updated: March 23, 2020
Languages: English, German, French, Spanish

A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment. (Daily updates below)

According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.

The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.

The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).

The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.

(Update: The Italian National Institute of Health published a statistical report on test-positive patients and deceased, confirming the above data.)

The doctor also points out the following aspects:

Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which has already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.

South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.

The approximately twelve test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of 80 years and a maximum age of 90 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases, is not yet known.

Furthermore, according to a first Chinese study, the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may not have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human coronaviruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics. (1)

Thus the most important indicator for judging the danger of the disease is not the frequently reported number of positively-tested persons and deaths, but the number of persons actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality).

According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of the Covid-19 disease can be expected. Senior citizens and persons with existing chronic diseases should be protected. The medical capacities should be optimally prepared.

Medical literature
(1) Zhuang et al., Potential false-positive rate among the ‚asymptomatic infected individuals‘ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients, Chinese Medical Association Publishing House, March 2020.

(2) Grasselli et al., Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, JAMA, March 2020.

(3) WHO, Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019, February 2020.

Reference values
Important reference values include the number of annual flu deaths, which is up to 8,000 in Italy and up to 60,000 in the US; normal overall mortality, which in Italy is up to 2,000 deaths per day; and the average number of pneumonia cases per year, which in Italy is over 120,000.

Current all-cause mortality in Europe and in Italy is still normal or even below-average. Any excess mortality due to Covid-19 should become visible in the European monitoring charts.

Winter smog (NO2) in Northern Italy in February 2020 (ESA)
Updates
March 17, 2020 (I)

• The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age.
• The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.
• The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.
• In Switzerland, some emergency units are already overloaded simply because of the large number of people who want to be tested. This points to an additional psychological and logistical component of the current situation.

March 17, 2020 (II)

• Italian immunology professor Sergio Romagnani from the University of Florence comes to the conclusion in a study on 3000 people that 50 to 75% of the test-positive people of all ages remain completely symptom-free – significantly more than previously assumed.
• The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known.
• A hospital doctor in the Spanish city of Malaga writes on Twitter that people are currently more likely to die from panic and systemic collapse than from the virus. The hospital is being overrun by people with colds, flu and possibly Covid19 and doctors have lost control.

March 18, 2020

• A new epidemiological study (preprint) concludes that the mortality of Covid19 even in the Chinese city of Wuhan was only 0.04% to 0.12% and thus rather lower than that of seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of about 0.1%. As a reason for the overestimated mortality of Covid19, the researchers suspect that initially only a small number of cases were recorded in Wuhan, as the disease was probably asymptomatic or mild in many people.
• Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of the poor air quality.
• New satellite images show how Northern Italy has the highest levels of air pollution in Europe, and how this air pollution has been greatly reduced by the quarantine.
• A manufacturer of the Covid19 test kit states that it should only be used for research purposes and not for diagnostic applications, as it has not yet been clinically validated.

March 19, 2020 (I)

The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:

• The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
• 10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
• At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
• Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
• Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
• The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.

March 19, 2020 (II)

• A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations.
• German virologist Hendrik Streeck argues that Covid19 is unlikely to increase total mortality in Germany, which normally is around 2500 people per day. Streeck mentions the case of a 78-year-old man with preconditions who died of heart failure, subsequently tested positive for Covid19 and thus was included in the statistics of Covid19 deaths.
• According to Stanford Professor John Ioannidis, the new coronavirus may be no more dangerous than some of the common coronaviruses, even in older people. Ioannidis argues that there is no reliable medical data backing the measures currently decided upon.

March 20, 2020

• According to the latest European monitoring report, overall mortality in all countries (including Italy) and in all age groups remains within or even below the normal range so far.
• According to the latest German statistics, the median age of test-positive deaths is about 83 years, most with pre-existing health conditions that might be a possible cause of death.
• A 2006 Canadian study referred to by Stanford Professor John Ioannidis found that common cold coronaviruses may also cause death rates of up to 6% in risk groups such as residents of a care facility, and that virus test kits initially falsely indicated an infection with SARS coronaviruses.

March 21, 2020 (I)

• Spain reports only three test-positive deaths under the age of 65 (out of a total of about 1000). Their pre-existing health conditions and actual cause of death are not yet known.
• On March 20, Italy reported 627 nationwide test-positive deaths in one day. By comparison, normal overall mortality in Italy is about 1800 deaths per day. Since February 21, Italy has reported about 4000 test-positive deaths. Normal overall mortality during this time frame is up to 50,000 deaths. It is not yet known to what extent normal overall mortality has increased, or to what extent it has simply turned test-positive. Moreover, Italy and Europe have had a very mild flu season in 2019/2020 that has spared many otherwise vulnerable people.
• According to Italian news reports, 90% of test-positive deceased in the Lombardy region have died outside of intensive care units, mostly at home or in general care sections. Their cause of death and the possible role of quarantine measures in their deaths remain unclear. Only 260 out of 2168 test-positive persons have died in ICUs.
• Bloomberg highlights that „99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says“

March 21, 2020 (II)

• The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“
• Italian researchers argue that the extreme smog in Northern Italy, the worst in Europe, may be playing a causative role in the current pneumonia outbreak there, as in Wuhan before.
• In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society.

March 22, 2020 (I)

Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.

As Professors Ioannidis and Bhakdi have shown, countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19, while the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an extrapolated mortality figure in the per mille range, i.e. at or below the level of the seasonal flu.

Current test-positive death figures in Italy are still less than 50% of normal daily overall mortality in Italy, which is around 1800 deaths per day. Thus it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a large part of normal daily mortality now simply counts as „Covid19“ deaths (as they test positive). This is the point stressed by the President of the Italian Civil Protection Service.

However, by now it is clear that certain regions in Northern Italy, i.e. those facing the toughest lockdown measures, are experiencing markedly increased daily mortality figures. It is also known that in the Lombardy region, 90% of test-positive deaths occur not in intensive care units, but instead mostly at home. And more than 99% have serious pre-existing health conditions.

Professor Sucharit Bhakdi has called lockdown measures „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“. Thus the extremely troubling question arises as to what extent the increased mortality of these elderly, isolated, highly stressed people with multiple pre-existing health conditions may in fact be caused by the weeks-long lockdown measures still in force.

If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause.)

March 22, 2020 (II)

• In Switzerland, there are currently 56 test-positive deaths, all of whom were „high risk patients“ due to their advanced age and/or pre-existing health conditions. Their actual cause of death, i.e. from or simply with the virus, has not been communicated.
• The Swiss government claimed that the situation in southern Switzerland (next to Italy) is „dramatic“, yet local doctors denied this and said everything is normal.
• According to press reports, oxygen bottles may become scarce. The reason, however, is not a currently higher usage, but rather hoarding due to fear of future shortages.
• In many countries, there is already an increasing shortage of doctors and nurses. This is primarily because healthcare workers testing positive have to self-quarantine, even though in many cases they will remain fully or largely symptom-free.

March 22, 2020 (III)

• A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low.
• Dr. David Katz, founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, asks in the New York Times: „Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.“
• According to Italian Professor Walter Ricciardi, „only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus“, whereas in public reports „all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus“. This means that Italian death figures reported by the media have to be reduced by at least a factor of 8 to obtain actual deaths caused by the virus. Thus one ends up with at most a few dozen deaths per day, compared to an overall daily mortality of 1800 deaths and up to 20,000 flu deaths per year.

March 23, 2020

• A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that „the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since „the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.
• An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.
• In a new fact sheet, the World Health Organization WHO reports that Covid-19 is in fact spreading slower, not faster, than influenza by a factor of about 50%. Moreover, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be much lower with Covid-19 than with influenza.
• A leading Italian doctor reports that „strange cases of pneumonia“ were seen in the Lombardy region already in November 2019, raising again the question if they were caused by the new virus (which officially only appeared in Italy in February 2020), or by other factors, such as the dangerously high smog levels in Northern Italy.
• Danish researcher Peter Goetzsche, founder of the renowned Cochrane Medical Collaboration, writes that Corona is „an epidemic of mass panic“ and „logic was one of the first victims.“
• Former Israeli Health Minister, Professor Yoram Lass, says that the new coronavirus is „less dangerous than the flu“ and lockdown measures „will kill more people than the virus“. He adds that „the numbers do not match the panic“ and „psychology is prevailing over science“. He also notes that „Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country.“
• Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.
• The President of the World Doctors Federation, Frank Ulrich Montgomery, argues that lockdown measures as in Italy are „unreasonable“ and „counterproductive“ and should be reversed.
• The latest statistical report of the Italian National Health Institute is now available in English.

Related articles

• On Corona, the Media, and Propaganda

Excellent post, great link. Thanks. Start a new thread with this on the main McAndrew board. People need to see this and calm down.

 

[BBrown]

FWIW, the company which I work for produces industrial measurement devices (so considered an "essential" business)

We had a huge spike in demand for orders in China over the weekend, they are going gung-ho on starting up factories again. Either they really are recovering, or the government has had enough and pulled the restrictions anyway. Could see similar happening for us within the next month.

Hope its true.
The "what is essential and non-essential business's" line is really being stretched.
I got an email from The Bike Dr. and they are considered "essential" ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[tboyer]

I think the problem with lockdowns is unless you're willing to go full totalitarian dictatorship like China -- with an enormous secret police apparatus, cameras everywhere and absolutely brutal consequences -- you might get just enough noncompliance to keep the virus spreading.

Plus you have a lot "essential" workers still having to go to work, such as health care workers and food supply/delivery, and those people are going home to their families at night (in China the government could order them to live in dormitories)

It seems to me it's a worthy experiment for 2-4 weeks but there has to be an endpoint or coronavirus might be the least of our worries. Just two to four weeks and the impact on the economy will be gigantic, probably bigger than Great Recession. But, say, 3-6 months -- nobody knows but that feels to me like something cataclysmic financially, more severe than the Great Depression. A complete worldwide economic collapse -- last time that happened we ended up in world war that killed a lot more people than the worst forecasts for coronavirus.

For sure it's a dilemma. There is not a policy option that doesn't involve huge amounts of pain and probably a lot of premature death. World capitalism is a machine that, if completely shut down, probably doesn't have a way to restart. And without an economy, we don't even have a government and a lot of people simply don't eat.

I'm not assuming the lock down will go on for a year. If so we were lied to in a big way. BTW...the Italians have all been pleading with us to use them as an example...they ignore the lockdowns. Much like the spring breakers and idiots still gathering in groups are.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

I think the problem with lockdowns is unless you're willing to go full totalitarian dictatorship like China -- with an enormous secret police apparatus, cameras everywhere and absolutely brutal consequences -- you might get just enough noncompliance to keep the virus spreading.

Plus you have a lot "essential" workers still having to go to work, such as health care workers and food supply/delivery, and those people are going home to their families at night (in China the government could order them to live in dormitories)

It seems to me it's a worthy experiment for 2-4 weeks but there has to be an endpoint or coronavirus might be the least of our worries. Just two to four weeks and the impact on the economy will be gigantic, probably bigger than Great Recession. But, say, 3-6 months -- nobody knows but that feels to me like something cataclysmic financially, more severe than the Great Depression. A complete worldwide economic collapse -- last time that happened we ended up in world war that killed a lot more people than the worst forecasts for coronavirus.

For sure it's a dilemma. There is not a policy option that doesn't involve huge amounts of pain and probably a lot of premature death. World capitalism is a machine that, if completely shut down, probably doesn't have a way to restart. And without an economy, we don't even have a government and a lot of people simply don't eat.

It's about slowing it down. Normal rational people who aren't 20 and thinking they are invincible are grasping this concept pretty easily. Is that everyone....nope, but enough sane people are doing it that hopefully it will indeed flatten the curve as to not overwhelm our hospitals. We have always been 2 weeks behind Italy so as Grant Green noted above...it's the second straight day the death number has dipped. Hopefully that trend continues.

I'd rather be alive in a bad economy along with my loved ones than have any of them die for no reason in recovering economy. I lost quite a bit the last few weeks, but I'm not one that has my entire life revolve the economy or money. I'm fortuanate that I still have a job as does my spouse, but I also have 2 siblings working in the health care industry and just want to get by this with everyone healthy. The economy will come back in time. I'll never listen to this POTUS about social distancing or anything else....I'll go with the medical experts as they care about life over the dollar.

 

[tboyer]

I'm not assuming the lock down will go on for a year. If so we were lied to in a big way. BTW...the Italians have all been pleading with us to use them as an example...they ignore the lockdowns. Much like the spring breakers and idiots still gathering in groups are.

The other part of this is -- American doesn't really have a public health system like any of the countries that have successfully beat back the epidemic. We don't have what Singapore has - an extremely efficient and powerful centralized public health apparatus. WE don't have what Taiwan or Hong Kong or South Korea have. We don't even have what Italy or Germany have.

We have a totally uncoordinated health care system that optimizes revenue in everything it does. American hospitals and drug companies and doctors are not really set up to fight a disease. They're set up to make money billing for procedures and prescription drugs. For sure they all want to help out (as long as it doesn't cost them too much) but they're not really set up for this.

Insurance companies have a huge financial interest in fighting disease because coronavirus could be very expensive, but they don't have any way to organize the health system -- they're just the payer without leverage at this juncture.

Yes hospitals will treat people with pneumonia (and bill hundreds of thousands of dollars per patient for the treatment). But saving the world from an epidemic is not in an an American hospital's mission statement. Helping to stop an epidemic, I guarantee you, is not any hospital CEO's incentive bonus plan.

I see extremely high compliance with the lockdown. Granted I live in a nice neighborhood with educated people who get it, but I guarantee all my neighbors are staying home -- not just to protect themselves but because they want to be part of the solution, not the problem.

I think the American people will do what's asked. But I don't think we have a medical care system that's the least bit equipped to fight this in any kind of unified way.

Maybe this is just my cynicism, but I see an awful lot of enthusiasm in American health care for Gilead Sciences' so-far-failed antiviral infusion and a remarkable lack of enthusiasm for 80-year-old non-patented chloroquine.

If the Gilead Sciences treatment works, it will cost $50,000 per patient and that revenue will be shared with hospitals and doctors in all the ways that drug revenue is currently shared. But giving chloroquine doesn't really make any money for anyone.

In South Korea, where revenue doesn't drive medical care, chloroquine was made part of the standard treatment protocol in mid-February. And their death rate's been astonishingly low. I guess that's what some people call socialism.

 

[WestSideLion]

USA pop in 1942 (arbitrary year amid war) was 135M... today it is 331M. 500,000 then is about 1.2-1.3 M now. Kinda narrows the perspective.

Still tragic and, yes, catastrophic.

So the worst war in history equates to fewer US lives lost than this pandemic (assumptions galore here)? That’s astounding.

PS: I realize that Europe lost a couple orders of magnitude more all told.

 

[The Spin Meister]

The other part of this is -- American doesn't really have a public health system like any of the countries that have successfully beat back the epidemic. We don't have what Singapore has - an extremely efficient and powerful centralized public health apparatus. WE don't have what Taiwan or Hong Kong or South Korea have. We don't even have what Italy or Germany have.

We have a totally uncoordinated health care system that operates on a profit principle. American hospitals and drug companies and doctors are not really set up to fight a disease. They're set up to make money billing for procedures and prescription drugs. For sure they all want to help out but they're not really set up for this.

Yes hospitals will treat people with pneumonia (and bill hundreds of thousands of dollars per patient for the treatment). But saving the world from an epidemic is not in an an American hospital's mission statement.

Anyway from where I set I see extremely high compliance. Granted I live in a nice neighborhood with educated people who get it, but I guarantee all my neighbors are staying home -- not just to protect themselves but because they want to be part of the solution, not the problem.

I think the American people will do what's asked. But I don't think we have a medical care system that's the least bit equipped to fight this in any kind of unified way.

OMG We're all gonna die!!!

 

[lj4heisman1]

OMG We're all gonna die!!!

Truer words were never spoken…

 

[tboyer]

I dunno I find that statement kind of smug. Yeah I feel the same way, we can tighten our belts and the best things in life don't cost money and family is the most important thing and all that. We have a financial cushion and we live small. But most people are the opposite. A lot of small business have no cushion. You shut down 100 restaurants and retail shops for 2 months, a third of them will never reopen because their working capital is gone. And not just small businesses. Those people care about their families too but if they have no income for an extended period of time, they don't get to feed those families.

There are huge companies that are hanging by a financial thread -- like Macy's, which is slowly dying, or Tesla, which is just on the verge of becoming profitable. If they're shut down for long they will be gone forever. It's not like a little recession. And not that I will mourn Macy's or Tesla, but that is a lot of people who will be without a means to support themselves.

Anyway I think the economy can survive 8 weeks of this. More than that, people should read about Weimar Germany and how that worked out when a formerly affluent society was reduced to abject poverty and starvation. It wasn't a great public health measure as it turned out.

I'd rather be alive in a bad economy along with my loved ones than have any of them die for no reason in recovering economy. I lost quite a bit the last few weeks, but I'm not one that has my entire life revolve the economy or money. I'm fortuanate that I still have a job as does my spouse, but I also have 2 siblings working in the health care industry and just want to get by this with everyone healthy. The economy will come back in time. I'll never listen to this POTUS about social distancing or anything else....I'll go with the medical experts as they care about life over the dollar.

 

[RGWhirly]

I know some folks in the middle of the country that went back to work today after only 1 week away from work. I know some folks in Texas that have been at work every day of the normal work week because their organization has not taken any steps with social distancing. So how the F is this all going work when part of the country is in total lockdown, part of the country has basically done nothing, and rest of the country has down all different levels of in between? This cluster f is going to continue for some time I fear because there is no rhyme or reason to it all.

 

[BBrown]

I know some folks in the middle of the country that went back to work after only 1 week away from work. I know some folks in Texas that have been at work every day of the normal work week because their organization has not taken any steps with social distancing. So how the F is this all going work when part of the country is in total lockdown, part of the country has basically done nothing, and rest of the country has down all different levels of in between? This cluster f is going to continue for some time I fear because there is no rhyme or reason to it all.

Exactly, NJ and NY are seeing what happens when FLA was a spring break destination. SMH.
MD's Gov. has been pretty good in all of this and is doing some really proactive stuff but I think his PC today fell short. I thought he was going to and probably should have issued the Shelter in place order. I also think some of these so called "essential" businesses is being taken a little too far. I mean I'm a pretty avid biker but I really don't consider The Bike Dr. as an "essential" business, yet I got an email saying they were.

 

[klive]

I was listening to some doctors talking today about the issue with false positives. They also believe that it's very difficult for anyone that is asymptomatic to transmit the disease.

Of course, listen to another doctor and you'll get another story.

What was their reasoning for thinking this?

 

[cjrugger]

American hospitals and drug companies and doctors are not really set up to fight a disease. They're set up to make money billing for procedures and prescription drugs. For sure they all want to help out (as long as it doesn't cost them too much) but they're not really set up for this.

Insurance companies have a huge financial interest in fighting disease because coronavirus could be very expensive, but they don't have any way to organize the health system -- they're just the payer without leverage at this juncture.

Yes hospitals will treat people with pneumonia (and bill hundreds of thousands of dollars per patient for the treatment). But saving the world from an epidemic is not in an an American hospital's mission statement. Helping to stop an epidemic, I guarantee you, is not any hospital CEO's incentive bonus plan.

This is absurdly stupid and also insulting to so many people who are busting their ass right now

 

[psuro]

I don't agree. the lockdown wasn't to keep people from getting it, it is designed to get it over a longer period of time. In other words, no major peak to overwhelm the medical system. Also, to buy some time to get caught up with supplies.

You are wasting your time. He has driven his anchor into the mud and his boat ain’t moving b

 

[psuro]

OMG We're all gonna die!!!

Eventually. So I would go long on that.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

I dunno I find that statement kind of smug. Yeah I feel the same way, we can tighten our belts and the best things in life don't cost money and family is the most important thing and all that. We have a financial cushion and we live small. But most people are the opposite. A lot of small business have no cushion. You shut down 100 restaurants and retail shops for 2 months, a third of them will never reopen because their working capital is gone. And not just small businesses. Those people care about their families too but if they have no income for an extended period of time, they don't get to feed those families.

There are huge companies that are hanging by a financial thread -- like Macy's, which is slowly dying, or Tesla, which is just on the verge of becoming profitable. If they're shut down for long they will be gone forever. It's not like a little recession. And not that I will mourn Macy's or Tesla, but that is a lot of people who will be without a means to support themselves.

Anyway I think the economy can survive 8 weeks of this. More than that, people should read about Weimar Germany and how that worked out when a formerly affluent society was reduced to abject poverty and starvation. It wasn't a great public health measure as it turned out.

You can't feed dead people either or go back to work if people are still spreading the virus at a rapid rate. It's not really a tough decision to make and the economy will bounce back in time. A ton of people will be without employment for a while and yes this is a HUGE inconvenience to many, but my top priority isn't the almighty dollar. I find it odd and actually pretty short sided for those who's main concern happens to be their portfolio.

Just listening to the POTUS right now he is already trying to open it back up. Just wash your hands.

 

[BBrown]

You can't feed dead people either or go back to work if people are still spreading the virus at a rapid rate. It's not really a tough decision to make and the economy will bounce back in time. A ton of people will be without employment for a while and yes this is a HUGE inconvenience to many, but my top priority isn't the almighty dollar. I find it odd and actually pretty short sided for those who's main concern happens to be their portfolio.

Just listening to the POTUS right now he is already trying to open it back up. Just wash your hands.

Yep. In the span of 15 minutes it went from this week could get very, very bad to talking about lifting the ban. WTF? I also so found it more than a little interesting that Dr. Faucci was not there and that some of words Trump used were almost verbatim what was uttered on some, ok, a specific "news" show this past weekend.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Yep. In the span of 15 minutes it went from this week could get very, very bad to talking about lifting the ban. WTF? I also so found it more than a little interesting that Dr. Faucci was not there and that some of words Trump used were almost verbatim what was uttered on some, ok, a specific "news" show this past weekend.

Apparently Fauci had another meeting with the task force, but anyone that listened to that and thought he is putting the American people first....well, they are idiots. He keeps talking about how much we learned, but we haven't even peaked and he's basically saying it's over. Yikes.....I'm so thankful I work from home. Basically we are going to need our local and state elected officials to drive this bus,,,,,he's lost it.

 

[AWS1022]

You can't feed dead people either or go back to work if people are still spreading the virus at a rapid rate. It's not really a tough decision to make and the economy will bounce back in time. A ton of people will be without employment for a while and yes this is a HUGE inconvenience to many, but my top priority isn't the almighty dollar. I find it odd and actually pretty short sided for those who's main concern happens to be their portfolio.

Just listening to the POTUS right now he is already trying to open it back up. Just wash your hands.

Instead of the almighty dollar, how about the small dollar or the middle sized dollar? It’s not about getting rich, it’s about being able to pay bills. People without employment for a while can’t pay their bills and that’s not an “inconvenience”, that’s the economy crashing and burning. And most of those who lose their jobs, won’t get them back...then what? Who’s going to support them? My daughter is 27 and is likely going to lose her job....my son is 24 and already lost his...that’s more than an inconvenience. Then when they try to get employment they will be up against hundreds of others also looking for jobs...then what? But don’t worry, as long as we save the elderly and sick people, everything will be okay.

 

[LaJolla Lion]

Instead of the almighty dollar, how about the small dollar or the middle sized dollar? It’s not about getting rich, it’s about being able to pay bills. People without employment for a while can’t pay their bills and that’s not an “inconvenience”, that’s the economy crashing and burning. And most of those who lose their jobs, won’t get them back...then what? Who’s going to support them? My daughter is 27 and is likely going to lose her job....my son is 24 and already lost his...that’s more than an inconvenience. Then when they try to get employment they will be up against hundreds of others also looking for jobs...then what? But don’t worry, as long as we save the elderly and sick people, everything will be okay.

Oh I'm sorry, now that I know your kids are being impacted, screw everyone else.

 

[BBrown]

Instead of the almighty dollar, how about the small dollar or the middle sized dollar? It’s not about getting rich, it’s about being able to pay bills. People without employment for a while can’t pay their bills and that’s not an “inconvenience”, that’s the economy crashing and burning. And most of those who lose their jobs, won’t get them back...then what? Who’s going to support them? My daughter is 27 and is likely going to lose her job....my son is 24 and already lost his...that’s more than an inconvenience. Then when they try to get employment they will be up against hundreds of others also looking for jobs...then what? But don’t worry, as long as we save the elderly and sick people, everything will be okay.

My God, do you even realize what you just wrote? SMH.[/QUOTE]