COVID Point of No Return
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Looks that way however deaths trajectory doesn't paint quite the same picture.
Deaths might lag behind by a week or so, as people who died today probably contracted the disease a week or so ago.
So even if new cases decrease, deaths probably won't start decreasing until about a week from now.
March 24, 2020
Italy: Overall mortality of 65+ age group (red) compared to earlier years (March 7, 2020 / MdS)
March 25, 2020
- The UK has removed Covid19 from the official list of High Consquence Infectious Diseases (HCID), stating that mortality rates are „low overall“. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19
- The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) admitted that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths“. The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany. https://swprs.org/rki-relativiert-corona-todesfaelle/
- Beds in Swiss intensive care units reserved for Covid19 patients are still „mostly empty“.
- German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus“ and that „panic must end“. https://www.radioeins.de/programm/s.../beitraege/corona-virus-kein-killervirus.html
- In Italy, overall national mortality of the 65+ age group until March 7 remained below the level of earlier years, especially due to the rather mild winter (see red line in chart below).
Italy: Overall mortality of 65+ age group (red) compared to earlier years (March 7, 2020 / MdS)
March 25, 2020
- German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.
- The Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu. https://www.clarin.com/buena-vida/c...ce-virologo-argentino-francia_0_yVcmJ4RM.html
- It is even possible that the Covid19 virus circulated already in earlier years, but wasn’t discovered because no one was looking for it. Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror“ created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.
I am freaking out people! Business is bad and prospects are disappearing and punting on any decisions (understandable). I know many work in industries that have been impacted much harder and more directly and I feel for them. I hope the economy can bounce back quickly... oh boy.
My step father and mother are very high risk and I worry about them. Good news is that they live in a relatively rural part of NEPA and have been isolating. My step dad has just gotten over a bout with pneumonia and my mom is overweight with high blood pressure and just not the healthiest. Praying for a medical miracle and common sense precautions for all over the next few weeks. I’m off to take my anxiety pill!
My step father and mother are very high risk and I worry about them. Good news is that they live in a relatively rural part of NEPA and have been isolating. My step dad has just gotten over a bout with pneumonia and my mom is overweight with high blood pressure and just not the healthiest. Praying for a medical miracle and common sense precautions for all over the next few weeks. I’m off to take my anxiety pill!
March 26, 2020 (I)
USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. https://healthweather.us/ See map in link. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week.
US Influenza Trend (March 25, 2020)US Influenza Trend (March 25, 2020)
USA: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (March 25, 2020, KINSA)
Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents https://influenza.rki.de/Wochenberichte/2019_2020/2020-12.pdf a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“ But maybe by fear?
Deutschland: Atemwegserkrankungen 2019/2020 ggü. VorjahrenDeutschland: Krankenhausaufenthalte durch Atemwegserkrankungen nach Altersgruppen
Germany: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (20 March 2020, RKI)
Italy: The renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
UK: The authors of the British Imperial College study, who predicted up to 500,000 deaths, are again reducing their forecasts. After already admitting https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654 that a large proportion of test-positive deaths are part of normal mortality, they now state that the peak of the disease may be reached in two to three weeks already.
UK: The British Guardian reported in February 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/society...flu-vaccine-as-critical-cases-rise-above-2000 that even in the generally weak flu season 2018/2019 there were more than 2180 flu-related admissions to intensive care units in the UK.
Switzerland: In Switzerland, the excess mortality due to Covid19 is apparently still zero. The latest „fatal victim“ presented by the media is a 100-year-old woman. Nevertheless, the Swiss government continues to tighten restrictive measures.
March 26, 2020 (II)
Sweden: Sweden has so far pursued the most liberal strategy in dealing with Covid19, which is based on two principles: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland...stockholm-oeffentliches-leben/komplettansicht Risk groups are protected and people with flu symptoms stay at home. „If you follow these two rules, there is no need for further measures, the effect of which is only marginal anyway,“ said chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Social and economic life will continue normally. The big rush to hospitals has so far failed to materialize, Tegnell said.
German criminal and constitutional law expert Dr. Jessica Hamed argues that measures such as general curfews and contact bans are a massive and disproportionate encroachment on fundamental rights of freedom and are therefore presumably „all illegal“.
In his famous book „The Plague“ (1947), French Nobel laureate in Literature Albert Camus wrote: „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
Albert Camus, The Plague (1947): „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on...OmGegOqh0LyAiF0rrz-IvrT4iAS3ZsMYfUA_ZKOKLELBE
USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. https://healthweather.us/ See map in link. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week.
US Influenza Trend (March 25, 2020)US Influenza Trend (March 25, 2020)
USA: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (March 25, 2020, KINSA)
Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents https://influenza.rki.de/Wochenberichte/2019_2020/2020-12.pdf a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“ But maybe by fear?
Deutschland: Atemwegserkrankungen 2019/2020 ggü. VorjahrenDeutschland: Krankenhausaufenthalte durch Atemwegserkrankungen nach Altersgruppen
Germany: Decreasing flu-like illnesses (20 March 2020, RKI)
Italy: The renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
UK: The authors of the British Imperial College study, who predicted up to 500,000 deaths, are again reducing their forecasts. After already admitting https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654 that a large proportion of test-positive deaths are part of normal mortality, they now state that the peak of the disease may be reached in two to three weeks already.
UK: The British Guardian reported in February 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/society...flu-vaccine-as-critical-cases-rise-above-2000 that even in the generally weak flu season 2018/2019 there were more than 2180 flu-related admissions to intensive care units in the UK.
Switzerland: In Switzerland, the excess mortality due to Covid19 is apparently still zero. The latest „fatal victim“ presented by the media is a 100-year-old woman. Nevertheless, the Swiss government continues to tighten restrictive measures.
March 26, 2020 (II)
Sweden: Sweden has so far pursued the most liberal strategy in dealing with Covid19, which is based on two principles: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland...stockholm-oeffentliches-leben/komplettansicht Risk groups are protected and people with flu symptoms stay at home. „If you follow these two rules, there is no need for further measures, the effect of which is only marginal anyway,“ said chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Social and economic life will continue normally. The big rush to hospitals has so far failed to materialize, Tegnell said.
German criminal and constitutional law expert Dr. Jessica Hamed argues that measures such as general curfews and contact bans are a massive and disproportionate encroachment on fundamental rights of freedom and are therefore presumably „all illegal“.
In his famous book „The Plague“ (1947), French Nobel laureate in Literature Albert Camus wrote: „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
Albert Camus, The Plague (1947): „The only way to fight the plague is honesty.“
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on...OmGegOqh0LyAiF0rrz-IvrT4iAS3ZsMYfUA_ZKOKLELBE
Corona virus:the world stands still. Only Sweden doesn't
Most schools are open, there are some restrictions, but no curfews. Sweden is going its own way in the crisis. And that is highly controversial.
By Christian Stichler , Stockholm
March 24, 2020, 6:47 p.m.1,258 comments
Guests in front of a restaurant in Stockholm this Sunday © Anders Wiklund / TT News Agency / AFP / Getty Images
The world stands still. Only Sweden not - page 1
Christian Stichler has been head of the ARD studio in Stockholm since 2018. His reporting area extends from Greenland to Estonia, from the North Cape to Lithuania.
Anyone walking through Stockholm these days will notice that things have also become a bit quieter in the Swedish capital. The big cinemas have closed. Many people work in the home office. The restaurants are less frequented at lunchtime. The universities have switched to distance learning, as have the upper grades of Swedish high schools. And yet Sweden currently looks like an island of the blissful in a Europe of contact and curfew, in which public life has almost completely come to rest.
Kindergartens and schools up to grade nine are open, children play on the playgrounds, and soccer is played on the soccer fields. In front of the Royal Theater, people are sitting in the spring sun with a coffee mug. Every now and then a ferry leaves for the archipelago. As if nothing had happened. Has Sweden been spared the Corona virus or is the government in the largest Scandinavian country ignoring reality?
The man who has steered the country through the crisis so calmly so far is Anders Tegnell, the top state epidemiologist. It belongs to the public health authority. This is how Folkhälsomyndigheten can be translated into German. Almost every day at 2 p.m., the 63-year-old steps in front of the press and announces the latest figures and the recommendations of his authority with his colleagues. He usually wears a slightly washed sweater and chinos. When Tegnell makes his statement, he often sways back and forth. Like a Nordic pine tree in the wind. In fact, Tegnell is facing a lot of resistance at the moment.
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"It's bloody serious," warns Fredrik Elgh, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Umeå. In an e-mail, he contacted Tegnell with other experts from the country to make himself heard. In an interview with Swedish television, the doctor said: "I am deeply concerned about the development. I would like to quarantine all of Stockholm."
Scandinavian unity put to the test
Sweden is practically the only country in the world that doesn't do everything to stop the virus from spreading. Together with 13 other scientists, Elgh replied in a contribution for the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter on Wednesday and called for more transparency from the public health authority. Tegnell and his colleagues should disclose their data and calculation models. The neighboring countries Denmark and Norway have long been looking at the Swedes in surprise. There is little evidence of the unity of the Scandinavian countries in times of crisis in the case of Corona.
Why do kindergartens and primary schools remain open in Sweden despite the increasing number of infections? Why is there no contact block like in Germany? Tegnell answers these recurring questions almost always the same: the epidemiological benefit of school closures in the case of the coronavirus is doubtful. Neither in Italy nor in China have schools proved to be hotspots for the virus to spread.
According to studies by the World Health Organization WHO in China, there has not been a single documentable case in which an adult has infected a child. Then why should you keep tens of thousands of healthy children at home? Especially since a lot of parents who work in important jobs to fight crises could no longer go to work? Tegnell's credo: "All measures that we take must be feasible over a longer period of time." Otherwise, the population will lose acceptance of the entire corona strategy.
Assumptions that is quite controversial
The Swedish way can be epidemiologically reduced to two basic rules. Older people or people with previous health problems should be isolated as much as possible. So no visits to children or grandchildren, no journeys by public transport, if possible no shopping. That is the one rule. The other is: Anyone with symptoms should stay at home immediately, even with the slightest cough.
"If you follow these two rules, you don't need any further measures, the effect of which is only very marginal anyway," Tegnell repeats. He says that exactly on the evening on which the contact ban is announced in Germany. The Swedish health authorities rely on a basic assumption that is controversial in other countries. People without symptoms are not considered contagious. With this advice, all Swedish doctors and nurses are also fighting the virus.
So far, at least, Swedish politics, above all the Social Democratic head of government Stefan Löfven, has followed the recommendations of his epidemiologists. "We trust our authorities," says Löfven. The big rush to the hospitals has so far failed to materialize. Every day that passes could be a sign that the curve will rise somewhat flatter than feared. Another circumstance gives the Swedes hope: it is the age distribution among those infected so far. The majority are in the age group between 40 and 59. Most of them got the virus while skiing in Italy and Austria . The risk of getting seriously ill is rather low in this group.
Kisses rather unusual
In contrast, the number of infected people who are 70 years and older is still relatively small. This could be an explanation of why disease progression in Sweden has so far been less dramatic than in other countries. And another theory is circulating. Unlike in the south of Europe, the Swedes lived closer to one another. Several generations are rarely united under one roof. And also the southern European kiss on the cheek as a greeting is rather unusual in Sweden.
The relatively slow spread of the virus in Sweden could prove that Anders Tegnell's defensive strategy is not entirely wrong. But this can only be finally proven after the pandemic has subsided. That is why Sweden also wants to make provisions and is upgrading its hospitals. With the help of the military, two emergency hospitals for corona infected people are currently being built. One of them is being built in the Stockholm exhibition halls. Because there are normally only 90 intensive care beds in the Swedish capital. In an emergency, a multiple of beds would be required. You want to be prepared for that.
You can see that Sweden is going its own way in the country's winter sports areas. Ski tourism has come to a standstill almost everywhere in Europe. The season ended prematurely in neighboring Norway. But in Sweden the lifts continue to run. Finally Easter is coming. For many, a vacation in the mountains is an integral part. After the first corona falls in the winter sports resort of Åre, an early season end in Sweden was also up for discussion. But the health authority didn't want to go that far. Gondola lifts are closed. The skiers should keep their distance when queuing at the lift. In restaurants and huts, you can only eat or drink at the table. But otherwise the business could continue over Easter. So the Swedes continue to go their own way.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland...stockholm-oeffentliches-leben/komplettansicht
Most schools are open, there are some restrictions, but no curfews. Sweden is going its own way in the crisis. And that is highly controversial.
By Christian Stichler , Stockholm
March 24, 2020, 6:47 p.m.1,258 comments
Guests in front of a restaurant in Stockholm this Sunday © Anders Wiklund / TT News Agency / AFP / Getty Images
The world stands still. Only Sweden not - page 1
Christian Stichler has been head of the ARD studio in Stockholm since 2018. His reporting area extends from Greenland to Estonia, from the North Cape to Lithuania.
Anyone walking through Stockholm these days will notice that things have also become a bit quieter in the Swedish capital. The big cinemas have closed. Many people work in the home office. The restaurants are less frequented at lunchtime. The universities have switched to distance learning, as have the upper grades of Swedish high schools. And yet Sweden currently looks like an island of the blissful in a Europe of contact and curfew, in which public life has almost completely come to rest.
Kindergartens and schools up to grade nine are open, children play on the playgrounds, and soccer is played on the soccer fields. In front of the Royal Theater, people are sitting in the spring sun with a coffee mug. Every now and then a ferry leaves for the archipelago. As if nothing had happened. Has Sweden been spared the Corona virus or is the government in the largest Scandinavian country ignoring reality?
The man who has steered the country through the crisis so calmly so far is Anders Tegnell, the top state epidemiologist. It belongs to the public health authority. This is how Folkhälsomyndigheten can be translated into German. Almost every day at 2 p.m., the 63-year-old steps in front of the press and announces the latest figures and the recommendations of his authority with his colleagues. He usually wears a slightly washed sweater and chinos. When Tegnell makes his statement, he often sways back and forth. Like a Nordic pine tree in the wind. In fact, Tegnell is facing a lot of resistance at the moment.
Corona pandemic:"Only giving up prevents us from losing what we love"
Distance:the corona survival guide for your relationship
Coronavirus:Can the partner still go to the delivery room?
more comments
"It's bloody serious," warns Fredrik Elgh, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Umeå. In an e-mail, he contacted Tegnell with other experts from the country to make himself heard. In an interview with Swedish television, the doctor said: "I am deeply concerned about the development. I would like to quarantine all of Stockholm."
Scandinavian unity put to the test
Sweden is practically the only country in the world that doesn't do everything to stop the virus from spreading. Together with 13 other scientists, Elgh replied in a contribution for the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter on Wednesday and called for more transparency from the public health authority. Tegnell and his colleagues should disclose their data and calculation models. The neighboring countries Denmark and Norway have long been looking at the Swedes in surprise. There is little evidence of the unity of the Scandinavian countries in times of crisis in the case of Corona.
Why do kindergartens and primary schools remain open in Sweden despite the increasing number of infections? Why is there no contact block like in Germany? Tegnell answers these recurring questions almost always the same: the epidemiological benefit of school closures in the case of the coronavirus is doubtful. Neither in Italy nor in China have schools proved to be hotspots for the virus to spread.
According to studies by the World Health Organization WHO in China, there has not been a single documentable case in which an adult has infected a child. Then why should you keep tens of thousands of healthy children at home? Especially since a lot of parents who work in important jobs to fight crises could no longer go to work? Tegnell's credo: "All measures that we take must be feasible over a longer period of time." Otherwise, the population will lose acceptance of the entire corona strategy.
Assumptions that is quite controversial
The Swedish way can be epidemiologically reduced to two basic rules. Older people or people with previous health problems should be isolated as much as possible. So no visits to children or grandchildren, no journeys by public transport, if possible no shopping. That is the one rule. The other is: Anyone with symptoms should stay at home immediately, even with the slightest cough.
"If you follow these two rules, you don't need any further measures, the effect of which is only very marginal anyway," Tegnell repeats. He says that exactly on the evening on which the contact ban is announced in Germany. The Swedish health authorities rely on a basic assumption that is controversial in other countries. People without symptoms are not considered contagious. With this advice, all Swedish doctors and nurses are also fighting the virus.
So far, at least, Swedish politics, above all the Social Democratic head of government Stefan Löfven, has followed the recommendations of his epidemiologists. "We trust our authorities," says Löfven. The big rush to the hospitals has so far failed to materialize. Every day that passes could be a sign that the curve will rise somewhat flatter than feared. Another circumstance gives the Swedes hope: it is the age distribution among those infected so far. The majority are in the age group between 40 and 59. Most of them got the virus while skiing in Italy and Austria . The risk of getting seriously ill is rather low in this group.
Kisses rather unusual
In contrast, the number of infected people who are 70 years and older is still relatively small. This could be an explanation of why disease progression in Sweden has so far been less dramatic than in other countries. And another theory is circulating. Unlike in the south of Europe, the Swedes lived closer to one another. Several generations are rarely united under one roof. And also the southern European kiss on the cheek as a greeting is rather unusual in Sweden.
The relatively slow spread of the virus in Sweden could prove that Anders Tegnell's defensive strategy is not entirely wrong. But this can only be finally proven after the pandemic has subsided. That is why Sweden also wants to make provisions and is upgrading its hospitals. With the help of the military, two emergency hospitals for corona infected people are currently being built. One of them is being built in the Stockholm exhibition halls. Because there are normally only 90 intensive care beds in the Swedish capital. In an emergency, a multiple of beds would be required. You want to be prepared for that.
You can see that Sweden is going its own way in the country's winter sports areas. Ski tourism has come to a standstill almost everywhere in Europe. The season ended prematurely in neighboring Norway. But in Sweden the lifts continue to run. Finally Easter is coming. For many, a vacation in the mountains is an integral part. After the first corona falls in the winter sports resort of Åre, an early season end in Sweden was also up for discussion. But the health authority didn't want to go that far. Gondola lifts are closed. The skiers should keep their distance when queuing at the lift. In restaurants and huts, you can only eat or drink at the table. But otherwise the business could continue over Easter. So the Swedes continue to go their own way.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland...stockholm-oeffentliches-leben/komplettansicht
At this point the majority of people dying are elderly and sick, that’s all we have to go by. There will always be some “healthy” people that die, but you have to go with the majority.[/QUOTE]
It's pretty early in the process for Ohio but here are some stats they released today:
15% need to be hospitalized
11% need icu care
(It's pretty early in the process for Ohio but here are some stats they released today:
15% need to be hospitalized
11% need icu care[/QUOTE])---by Rumble
Always needs to remember , the 15% and 11% are only of confirmed cases. Confirmed cases are the tip of the iceberg. Just how big is that bitch underwater is the trillion dollar question.
That's true, though even 11% ICU of the confirmed cases seems pretty high. I believe Cuomo briefed that in NY, it was 3% for them.
But yes......multiply the confirmed case # by 5 to 10, and that's probably what we're truly dealing with. So maybe 1-3% of actual COVID-19 cases require ICU care. Which is still high......
#10 per capita per million people , 210/ mill, the greatest COVID-19 fighter according to some on this board S Korea #11 180/mill per Hopkins .
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