Willie gave his Crystal Ball prediction, so I won't go thru weight-by-weight.
Rather will re-package what I said in the other thread:
- Last year PSU lost to Iowa by 15.5 pts
- Hildebrandt was +11 pts over Howard
- Willie predicts Bartlett 3rd --> +13.5 pts (that's what last year's 3rd scored)
--> PSU would've outscored Iowa by 9 pts
Caveats:
- Hildebrandt likely won't finish 4th again, with Glory and Arujau returning.
- No way Kerk finishes 7th again -- that would offset Hildebrandt scoring less.
- Can't count on Marinelli getting injured at nationals again. Last year he scored only 4 pts. If he reaches the finals, that's a problem for us.
- Risky to assume all 4 champs will successfully defend their titles. (Hopefully they do!) Each 2nd place costs us 4 pts.
--> We will need Joe Lee to at least match Berge last year, and need more points from 165 and 197.
Bottom line: national title is very feasible, but not a given. Chris' "slight favorite" comment above seems about r