Early estimate of auto qualifier slots for Big 10

[jmadden1998]

We only have an initial coaches ranking and win% to base this on but wanted to see what the numbers look like. RPI is the 3rd metric and hasn’t been released yet but as long as a wrestler meets 2 out of 3 they can lock up an AQ spot. And I know it can be a sliding scale but I’m going to use 70% win percentage or greater and top 30 coaches ranking. Win% and then coaches ranking listed after each name.

125 (7) Projected (10)
Rivera 100% 1
S Lee 92.9% 2
Russell 86.4% 6
Foley 96.3% 7
Brown 78.6% 12
Mattin 70.6% 15
Schroder 70.8% 18

In the running

Piotrowski 61.1% 14
Moisey 58.8% 15
Heinselman 73.7% 33

133 (7) Projected (8)

Micic 100% 1
Desanto 93.3% 4
Pletcher 90% 5
Suriano 89.5% 6
Lizak 83.3% 9
RBY 88.2% 12
Thornton 75% 21

In the running

Duncan 55.6% 18

141 (7) Projected (8)

McKenna 100% 2
Carr 83.3% 4
Storr 81% 5
N Lee 95.2% 7
Mckee 80% 7
Moran 79.2% 13
Murin 73.3% 16

In the running

Red 65.2% 24
Limmex 58.3% 25

149 (4) Projected (7)

Ashnault 100% 2
Jordan 94.7% 3
Berge 87.5% 12
Bannister 70.6% 21

In the running

Martin 63.6% 13
Lugo 64.7% 14
Thorn 65% 23
Amine 66.7% 27

157 (6) Projected (10)

Nolf 100% 1
Berger 90.5% 2
Deakin 90.9% 3
Young 81.3% 5
Hayes 76.2% 6
Bleise 81.3% 8

In the running

Pantaleo 68.8% 9
Parriott 64.7% 11
Barone 62.5% 12
Van Brill 62.5% 15
Danishek 60.9% 27

165 (5) Projected (7)

Joseph 100% 1
Marinelli 100% 2
Wick 95.8% 3
White 72.2% 6
Massa 75% 7

In the running

Gunther 64% 19
Martin 68.2% 22
Brolsma 68.2% 30
Campbell 81.8% -

174 (7) Projected (8)

Hall 100% 1
Amine 87.5% 3
Labriola 82.6% 9
Christensen 73.7% 10
Skatzka 76.9% 10
Lydy 73.9% 14
Smith 73.7% 20

In the running

Covaciu 62.5% 25
Grello 64.7% 31
Hughes 69% 32

184 (7) Projected (8)

Martin 100% 1
Parker 84.6% 2
Rasheed 100% 3
Venz 80% 5
Wilcke 82.4% 14
Caffey 88.5% 17
Lyon 72% 30

In the running

Reinhardt 65.4% 22
Embree 69.2% -

197 (5) Projected (6)

Nickal 100% 1
Moore 100% 2
Warner 83.3% 5
Schultz 70.8% 11
Brunner 70% 12

In the running

Striggow 58.8% 27

285 (7) Projected (9)

Steveson 100% 1
Cassar 94.4% 3
Parris 85.2% 5
Hemida 80% 6
Hilger 81% 7
Jensen 87.5% 10
Singletary 79% 15

In the running

Jennings 57.9% 11
Colucci 55% 29
Stoll 85.7% - (not enough matches to be in 1st coaches rankings)

 

[diggerpup]

B1G heavyweight will end up stronger as a group than initially assumed at season’s beginning.

Stevenson + Parris definitely have something to do with that.

————-

B1G could end up with nine #1 seeds at NCAAs. Maybe all ten.

 

[jmadden1998]

B1G heavyweight will end up stronger as a group than initially assumed at season’s beginning.

Stevenson + Parris definitely have something to do with that.

————-

B1G could end up with nine #1 seeds at NCAAs. Maybe all ten.

Wonder if that has ever happened? All 10 top seeds from 1 conference. 141 would be the least likely because of Yianni but it certainly isn’t a long shot. Big 10 has at least 2 in the top 5 of every weight

 

[regularfan]

This is good stuff. Does anybody have a list of the NCAA timelines for releasing each of the following?

Remaining coaches panels:
RPI:
Allocations for each weight:
Big 10 Pre-seeds:
Big 10 Brackets:
NCAA Brackets:

Also, I forget in year's past when they slide up or down the 70%, 30 RPI, 30 CR does that apply for an individual weight class or the entire tournament field?

Finally, I was reading through the championship manual and it looks like they are going to seed 28 wrestlers when the at-larges are picked. Interesting since now they can kind of dictate first round matches and there will be no random draws into the tournament. It said seeds 29 through 33 will be drawn randomly and are guaranteed to have the pig-tail match before facing a top 4 seed.

 

[2td3nf6fall]

This is good stuff. Does anybody have a list of the NCAA timelines for releasing each of the following?

Remaining coaches panels:
RPI:
Allocations for each weight:
Big 10 Pre-seeds:
Big 10 Brackets:
NCAA Brackets:

Also, I forget in year's past when they slide up or down the 70%, 30 RPI, 30 CR does that apply for an individual weight class or the entire tournament field?

Finally, I was reading through the championship manual and it looks like they are going to seed 28 wrestlers when the at-larges are picked. Interesting since now they can kind of dictate first round matches and there will be no random draws into the tournament. It said seeds 29 through 33 will be drawn randomly and are guaranteed to have the pig-tail match before facing a top 4 seed.

Remaining coaches panels:Feb 7, Feb 14, Feb 20
RPI: Calculated on Feb 20, Released Feb 28?
Winning percentage: Calculated on Feb 20, Released Feb 28?
Allocations for each weight: Released Feb 28?

Source: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...tling/d1/men/2018-19DIMWR_PreChampsManual.pdf

Also note that the record is based on DI competition. For example, Christensen at 174 is only 10-5 (66.67%) in DI matches and needs two more matches to qualify for the RPI.

 

[Maddog]

Also note that the record is based on DI competition. For example, Christensen at 174 is only 10-5 (66.67%) in DI matches and needs two more matches to qualify for the RPI.[/QUOTE]

Isn't it based also only on matches at the weight class? Will Campbell have enough matches at 165 to qualify for either win% or RPI?

 

[jmadden1998]

Remaining coaches panels:Feb 7, Feb 14, Feb 20
RPI: Calculated on Feb 20, Released Feb 28?
Winning percentage: Calculated on Feb 20, Released Feb 28?
Allocations for each weight: Released Feb 28?

Source: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...tling/d1/men/2018-19DIMWR_PreChampsManual.pdf

Also note that the record is based on DI competition. For example, Christensen at 174 is only 10-5 (66.67%) in DI matches and needs two more matches to qualify for the RPI.

I used wrestlestat for the win%, did forget to remove non-div 1 matches. Good catch.

 

[RoarLions1]

Also note that the record is based on DI competition. For example, Christensen at 174 is only 10-5 (66.67%) in DI matches and needs two more matches to qualify for the RPI.

[/QUOTE]
Isn't it based also only on matches at the weight class? Will Campbell have enough matches at 165 to qualify for either win% or RPI?[/QUOTE]


All three selection criteria has stated "at the designated weight class". With one bout under his belt at 165, and only four duals left, Campbell can not earn the Big Ten a qualification slot unless he goes to a couple tournaments and gets to eight matches. Even then, he must meet the criteria and be listed among the top-29 to earn the conference a slot.

 

[RoarLions1]

This is good stuff. Does anybody have a list of the NCAA timelines for releasing each of the following?

Remaining coaches panels:
RPI:
Allocations for each weight:
Big 10 Pre-seeds:
Big 10 Brackets:
NCAA Brackets:

Also, I forget in year's past when they slide up or down the 70%, 30 RPI, 30 CR does that apply for an individual weight class or the entire tournament field?

Finally, I was reading through the championship manual and it looks like they are going to seed 28 wrestlers when the at-larges are picked. Interesting since now they can kind of dictate first round matches and there will be no random draws into the tournament. It said seeds 29 through 33 will be drawn randomly and are guaranteed to have the pig-tail match before facing a top 4 seed.

I believe these to be close.

Coaches Panel Rankings (four)
Jan. 24 (already released)
Feb. 14-15
Feb. 27-28 (I believe the Pre-Championship Manual is incorrect, not all duals are done by Feb. 20). The three criteria will be calculated 2/27, communicated to qualifying events on 2/28, which is when fans will see the numbers.
March 13 After the qualifying tournaments are done, the criteria is recalculated and released. These "rankings" are used to determine Bronze Standard.

RPI (three)
Feb. 14-15
Feb. 27-28 (see above)
March 13 (see above)

Win %
Easy enough to find, calculated at same time as RPI, no official releases

Qualifying Event Allocations
Feb. 28 (maybe Feb. 27 if it leaks)

Big Ten Pre-seeds
Monday, March 4, if my calendar is correct

NCAA
At-large selections announced March 13
Brackets released March 20??

The idea that they are "dictating" first round matches isn't how I would say it. The committee is seeding to 28, then 29 through 33 are randomly placed in the slots designated for seeds 29 through 32, with one of those wrestlers getting a pigtail. Seeds 1-4 will get these randomly-placed wrestlers. They are not dictating so much as placing the top-28 into the bracket by order of seed.

 

[regularfan]

I understand that they have criteria that they need to follow but there are always a few head-scratching seeds each year.

With that being said, 3 out of the 6 people on the committee are coaches and the coaches have a financial stake in the outcomes of this tournament. They can say they are only seeding 1-28 but I think every single person on this board can look ahead and know which seeds get placed where in the bracket and try to create matchups in such a way that it can guarantee a difficult match or send some teams wrestlers into the consolations. IE, pit Iowa vs. PSU in an 8 vs. 9 bout instead of giving one of them a 7 or 10 seed and sending them to opposite sides of the bracket.

Edit: I guess I should probably have used a 16+ seed in my example but hopefully you get the point.

Maybe I am just a cynic ...